BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:

Also was that one dude who claimed the data from Iceland and Germany showing that actual fatality numbers once you included asymptomatic cases was 1 in 300 huffing his own farts? Because if 1 in 300 fatalities true then at least 5 million people in the US have it so far.

dex_sda posted:

1 in 300 is going too far but yes it's likely that with asymptomatics included the rate is below 1%. So multiply by a hundred and you got a good idea.

Stereotype posted:

well over here in the good ol USA we filled fifty refrigerated trailers with corpses.

Dumb Lowtax posted:

No, we have no idea about this, because what we're about to experience is unprecedented -- a population that completely lacks BCG immunizations nor any basic healthcare with tons of untreated illness, and a peak that totally overwhelms the hospital capacity by orders of magnitude more people than anywhere else so far too

Dumb Lowtax posted:

No, we have no idea about this, because what we're about to experience is unprecedented -- a population that completely lacks BCG immunizations nor any basic healthcare with tons of untreated illness, and a peak that totally overwhelms the hospital capacity by orders of magnitude more people than anywhere else so far too

Xaris posted:

hows number doing

not that one

the other one

Shipon posted:

the last part isn't actually true. america's healthcare system, for all it's faults, has more ICU beds per capita than any other country (except germany, but we still beat them out a bit), even if overall hospital beds are lower per capita.

poty posted:

an optimistic estimate would be italy * 5. italy has 18k so that would be 90k

Shipon posted:

the last part isn't actually true. america's healthcare system, for all it's faults, has more ICU beds per capita than any other country (except germany, but we still beat them out a bit), even if overall hospital beds are lower per capita. maybe you can chalk that up to hospitals focusing so much on juicing their marketing that they over-build capacity for regular use but in this case, it's definitely doing work to keep down the death rate.



the question is if this advantage can counter all the other problems this country has

Xaris posted:

lol just thinkin' about when r0 guyovich kramered in here on his parachute back in jan and said relax it's gunna peak in late january, listen to the experts, ya'll doomering it's just a flu and no way some infected people on the nyc metro won't cause a mass outbreak

Xaris posted:

lol just thinkin' about when r0 guyovich kramered in here on his parachute back in jan and said relax it's gunna peak in late january, listen to the experts, ya'll doomering it's just a flu and no way some infected people on the nyc metro won't cause a mass outbreak

baw posted:

a big problem is probably how those icu beds are concentrated, and there are likely thousands of rural communities that dont have one within 100 miles

empty whippet box posted:

so the whole 60k deaths thing is a laughable, ridiculous line of bullshit and we're still on track for like 2 million deaths in the US right

sweet thursday posted:

dex_sda posted:

i think it was february lmao

Shipon posted:

the last part isn't actually true. america's healthcare system, for all it's faults, has more ICU beds per capita than any other country (except germany, but we still beat them out a bit), even if overall hospital beds are lower per capita. maybe you can chalk that up to hospitals focusing so much on juicing their marketing that they over-build capacity for regular use but in this case, it's definitely doing work to keep down the death rate.



the question is if this advantage can counter all the other problems this country has

quote:

As large numbers of critically ill patients are admitted to ICU, step-down, and other expansion beds, it must be determined who will care for them. Having an adequate supply of beds and equipment is not enough. Based on AHA 2015 data, there are 28,808 intensivists who are privileged to deliver care in the ICUs of U.S. acute care hospitals. Intensivists are physicians with training in one of several primary specialties (eg, internal medicine, anesthesiology, emergency medicine, surgery, pediatrics ) and additional specialized critical care training. However, 48% of acute care hospitals have no intensivists on their staffs. Based on the demands of the critically ill COVID-19 patient, the intensivist deficit will be strongly felt. Additionally, there are an estimated 34,000 critical care advanced practice providers (APPs) available to care for critically ill patients. Other physicians with hospital privileges, especially those with previous exposure to critical care training or overlapping skill sets, may be pressed into service as outpatient clinics and elective surgery are suspended. All other ICU staff (eg, APPs, nurses, pharmacists, respiratory therapists) will also be in short supply. Without these key members of the ICU team, high-quality critical care cannot be adequately delivered. Moreover, an indeterminate number of experienced ICU staff may become ill, further straining the system as need and capacity surge.

At forecasted crisis levels, we estimate that the projected shortages of intensivists, critical care APPs and nurses, and respiratory therapists trained in mechanical ventilation would limit care of critically ill ventilated patients. Therefore, priority should focus not only on increasing the numbers of mechanical ventilators, but on growing the number of trained professionals, for both the near and long term, who will be needed to both mechanically ventilate patients with COVID-19 and to care for other critically ill patients who will require ICU care.

Augmenting critical care staffing: SCCM encourages hospitals to adopt a tiered staffing strategy in pandemic situations such as COVID-19 (Figure 2). Hospitals with telemedicine capacity may also use the technology to connect with expert resources at other locations.

Dumb Lowtax posted:

Question for anyone who knows Soviet history: Why didn't the nukes go off at any point when the USSR collapsed and balkanized, even as all the former Soviet states continued to have non-peaceful times?

Did Russia manage to secure all the nukes out of the countries that broke off?

Because now the other shoes (US empire) is about to drop and there are more nukes than ever to keep track of.

Was it because the Western world still standing during the USSR collapse, and was so busy making lucrative trade deals with Russia that a total breakdown of order into warlordism was avoided?

Could China fulfill that same role on the destroyed US empire to prevent it from decaying to the point that warlords/former military start fighting over the nukes while setting them off?

NoDamage posted:

That model is predicated on a number of assumptions:
...
Whether these assumptions seem "reasonable" is up to you...

Beachcomber posted:

Idgi

Random rear end in a top hat posted:

Joseph Pizza.

Joseph

Pizza





The writers are really phoning it in this season, huh? I thought they were going some interesting places with all these evil people catching corona, but like the last couple seasons they don't want to change the status quo and are predictably just hammering the 'lol hellworld' button over and over again. It's Lost all over again.

Grand Theft Autobot posted:

I'm confused. There were 2k deaths today. People are suggesting this isn't bad news?

twoday posted:

https://twitter.com/abdbozkurt/status/1248500275322564611?s=20

brugroffil posted:

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1248425413379932161

Skypie posted:

lmao the gop is gonna kill everyone