[COVID-19 April] I've licked things I might not ordinarily have licked

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > [COVID-19 April] I've licked things I might not ordinarily have licked

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Norton the First: Dec 4, 2018; by Fluffdaddy

Heartcatch posted:

The only monarchs of California are Emperor Norton and his lineage.

THANK YOU!

Jesus Christ this forum.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:52

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# ? Jun 6, 2024 00:55

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

MODS CURE JOKES posted:

lol if you think the ~50,000 actual anarchists in California wouldn't immediately make the place into Afghanistan II: Electric Boogaloo

lol at white anarchists getting ready to die for Google's profits

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:53

whatis: Jun 6, 2012

lol if california turned into its own country it would end up being more fascist than the US because of silicon valley techbros

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:53

Good soup!: Nov 2, 2010

new kind of cat posted:

lol this thread today

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:53

OhFunny: Jun 26, 2013; EXTREMELY PISSED AT THE DNC

SKULL.GIF posted:

The chud contingent of the military is a lot lower than 85% -- closer to 50% -- and it's more the officers that lean Republican than the enlisted

State and local police alone could smash any separatist movement.

The only way California leaves is by force and liberals aren't the ones with guns.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:54

SKULL.GIF: Jan 20, 2017

Atrocious Joe posted:

any state separatism is powerful "rich man's war" bullshit

like, I'm for it because presumably it'll be suicide for the US empire, but lol I'm not fighting for any state or feds

I think it'll be much more likely to be cutting through the last dangling, decayed threads of the federal institution via simply no longer paying taxes and behaving as an independent state, than it is a violent separatist movement

Any California secession will be in the face of something totally unacceptable/delegitimizing happening (even more blatant than what we've seen this millennium, anyway), and the CA separation would instantly lead to other major population centers also declaring independence from the decrepit husk of federalism for reasons laid out in my post earlier

Newsom's diction isn't suggesting that he's seriously thinking about a secession, but it does show that these large states are realizing that the federal government is totally unreliable and that they have to start acting on their own. Given that state of things, it only takes a small push to go "Why are we even paying taxes when we get nothing in return?" and then we're off to the races.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:54

Gringostar: Nov 12, 2016; Morbid Hound

Judakel posted:

An independent California is not going to stop treating migrants like poo poo. If anything, it will get worse. Gotta make that money somehow.

lol

nope

ever since prop 187 ca has been treating migrants better than pretty much any other state

how it treats the homeless is beyond hosed though

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:54

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Disrupting democracy and worker's rights, for the Republic of California.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:54

human garbage bag: Jan 8, 2020; by Fluffdaddy

Homeless Friend posted:

the idea of migrants laying their lives down for the gringo is pretty lol, but if you were gonna do it you'd have to offer them buy in

yeah this. once the anti-trump landowning class in cali realize they'll have to offer the underclasses substantial concessions in order for the underclasses to fight for them they'll instead choose to grovel before trump and beg for forgiveness.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:55

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Gringostar posted:

lol

nope

ever since prop 187 ca has been treating migrants better than pretty much any other state

how it treats the homeless is beyond hosed though

Better than any other state is doing a lot of work here.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:55

Good Citizen: Aug 12, 2008; trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump trump

OhFunny posted:

State and local police alone could smash any separatist movement.

The only way California leaves is by force and liberals aren't the ones with guns.

California would probably fight their war the same way they fight wildfires. Prison labor

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:55

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Congrats you are now treated like poo poo, not like garbage.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:56

Notorious R.I.M.: Jan 27, 2004; up to my ass in alligators

[Disclaimer: Armchair epidemiology post]

There are two ways to cause infection rates to decline:

1. Get the Reproduction Rate (R0) below 1
2. Get the percentage of the population infected to the critical immunization threshold, qc = 1 - (1 / R0)

If R0 stays above 1 and less than qc % of the population is infected, then the curve may "flatten", but we'll never actually see a peak. Instead, we'll see a leveling off.

The IHME model shows a peak because it assumes that our non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing get the R0 below 1. Is this assumption valid? Maybe, but some studies show that our interventions may not get R0 under 1:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-30-03-2020.pdf

quote:

Across all countries we find current estimates of Rt [, the effective reproduction number over time, with Rt changing only when an intervention is introduced,] to range from a posterior mean of 0.97 [0.14-2.14] for Norway to a posterior mean of 2.64 [1.40-4.18]for Sweden, with an average of 1.43 across the 11 country posterior means, a 64% reduction compared to the pre-intervention values.

(emphasis mine)

Here is an example of how Rt shifts for 3 countries from the study:

In this example, the level of interventions applied across European countries does not get R0 below 1; the curve may flatten, but it will not peak until qc is reached. For an adjusted R0 of 1.43 with national lockdowns in place, we calculate the critical immunization threshold as qc = 1 - (1 / 1.43) = 0.30, i.e. 30% of the population needs to be infected before we start hitting the critical immunization threshold.

Now it's important to note that there is considerable uncertainty for several reasons here:

1. The confidence interval around final R0 is considerably wide, and R0 < 1 is well within the 95% confidence intervals for these interventions.
2. We may employ subsequent interventions that either lower R0 further or raise it from here.
3. The critical immunization threshold is particularly sensitive to values near 1.

The first two points are obvious, but the third one requires a further example. Let's calculate qc for a few values near R0 = 1:

code:


R0 = 1.40, qc = 0.29
R0 = 1.30, qc = 0.23
R0 = 1.20, qc = 0.17
R0 = 1.10, qc = 0.10
R0 = 1.05, qc = 0.05

So we've reduced R0 from somewhere around 4 to somewhere around 1.4 with our interventions, but a subsequent difference of 0.35 in R0 changes the critical immunity threshold from 30% of the population to 5% of the population before the infection rate peaks due to "herd immunity" effects.

With over 500k confirmed cases in the US, we're around 1 in 600 people being confirmed cases. Soon, we will be at the spot where we may or may not bump into qc depending on how many undiagnosed infections there are and exactly where R0 lies in our range of uncertainty. The next couple of weeks will be critical to see if our combination of undiagnosed cases and shift in R0 has actually got us to a peak; small variations in either value from here could have drastically different outcomes. This is also the most critical window where relaxing interventions would be absolutely horrendous both due to health outcomes and from losing our ability to constrain uncertainty around R0 and undiagnosed infection rates.

Notorious R.I.M. has issued a correction as of 21:01 on Apr 11, 2020

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:56

mod sassinator: Dec 13, 2006; I came here to Kick Ass and Chew Bubblegum,
and I'm All out of Ass

SKULL.GIF posted:

I think it'll be much more likely to be cutting through the last dangling, decayed threads of the federal institution via simply no longer paying taxes and behaving as an independent state, than it is a violent separatist movement

Any California secession will be in the face of something totally unacceptable/delegitimizing happening (even more blatant than what we've seen this millennium, anyway), and the CA separation would instantly lead to other major population centers also declaring independence from the decrepit husk of federalism for reasons laid out in my post earlier

Newsom's diction isn't suggesting that he's seriously thinking about a secession, but it does show that these large states are realizing that the federal government is totally unreliable and that they have to start acting on their own. Given that state of things, it only takes a small push to go "Why are we even paying taxes when we get nothing in return?" and then we're off to the races.

Taxation without representation 2.0

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:56

Maya Fey: Jan 22, 2017

A group of forum users held a BCG "vax party" in Kentucky to lower their chances of contracting Covid-19. Now one of them is autistic

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:57

Raine: Apr 30, 2013; ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER

Spergin Morlock posted:

yea this is true. Flagstaff and Phoenix are not at all the same. in fact Phoenix itself and Tempe are quite different from the non-Tempe suburbs of Phoenix

Tempe guy here can confirm.

Also have collected a bunch of crack pinged people in my local SRA branch.

Just annex Arizona and we'll sort out everyone else thx in advance

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:57

Atrocious Joe: Sep 2, 2011

human garbage bag posted:

yeah this. once the anti-trump landowning class in cali realize they'll have to offer the underclasses substantial concessions in order for the underclasses to fight for them they'll instead choose to grovel before trump and beg for forgiveness.

Good Citizen posted:

California would probably fight their war the same way they fight wildfires. Prison labor

Big Haitian Revolution vibes

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:57

seattle plague rat: Apr 6, 2020

Xaris posted:

tank u for your sacrifice mr seattle plague rat

not so much thanks for the bubonic plague but well, you get the heroes we need

o7

tbh once the edibles kicked in id get bored and wander off

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:59

Often Abbreviated: Dec 19, 2017; 1st Severia Tank Brigade
"Ghosts of Honcharivske"

The big opportunity here is that during the chaos of Civil War 2 Hawaii can rise up and kill whitey.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 20:59

Judakel: Jul 29, 2004; Can't post for 9 years!

Newsom is, almost entirely, angling to position himself as a national leader during a time of crisis. He has been running for president ever since he started licensing gay marriage as SF mayor. He knows what he is doing, and it isn't about succession. He doesn't believe in it, just like he doesn't believe in anything he has ever done, regardless of how just it may be. No one that whines about wine caves being besmirched (remember that episode? seems like a lifetime ago) cares about progressive causes.

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:00

Spergin Morlock: Aug 8, 2009

Funion posted:

Tempe guy here can confirm.

Also have collected a bunch of crack pinged people in my local SRA branch.

Just annex Arizona and we'll sort out everyone else thx in advance

just build a wall around Mesa, Gilbert and scottsdale/PV and it should be fine

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:00

Gringostar: Nov 12, 2016; Morbid Hound

Often Abbreviated posted:

The big opportunity here is that during the chaos of Civil War 2 Hawaii can rise up and kill whitey.

inshallah

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:00

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud: Apr 7, 2003

I�m at Whole Foods and absolutely no one is wearing a mask, not even staff. Everyone is clumping up at the entrance. This is some rad Darwin awards poo poo

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:00

Homeless Friend: Jul 16, 2007

Maya Fey posted:

A group of forum users held a BCG "vax party" in Kentucky to lower their chances of contracting Covid-19. Now one of them is autistic

How many does that make total?

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:00

seattle plague rat: Apr 6, 2020

kind of ironic if the first nations rose up and polished us off after we were weakened by a foreign plague

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:01

RealityWarCriminal: Aug 10, 2016

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

I’m at Whole Foods and absolutely no one is wearing a mask, not even staff. Everyone is clumping up at the entrance. This is some rad Darwin awards poo poo

congrats on your award

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:01

Raine: Apr 30, 2013; ACCELERATIONIST SUPERDOOMER

Spergin Morlock posted:

just build a wall around Mesa, Gilbert and scottsdale/PV and it should be fine

judging by how many people don't give a gently caress about our already lax quarantine I think the chuds will sort themselves out

will take a picture later for proof

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:02

Bruce Hussein Daddy: Dec 26, 2005; I testify that there is none worthy of worship except God and I testify that Muhammad is the Messenger of God

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

This is also the most critical window where relaxing interventions would be absolutely horrendous both due to health outcomes and from losing our ability to constrain uncertainty around R0 and undiagnosed infection rates.

yes but my freedoms

# ? Apr 11, 2020 21:03

MODS CURE JOKES: Nov 11, 2009; OFFICIAL SAS 90s REMEMBERER