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Zwille posted:pack a crate of Pfand into your car and say you're trying to bring it back but the shops are picky about what they take, so you're searching for a store which'll take all the Pfand, problem solved Duzzy Funlop in a week: using the internet ruse I was able to freely drive around wherever I want, which rules, however am starting to have serious trouble regarding the large bucket of Apfelessig that's sitting in my apartment
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Apr 14, 2020 09:43
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no, not like that.  Like a crate of assorted Pfand and an empty bottle of Apfelessig. Though I'd bet the clinking and clanking would make you go insane/develop tinnitus eventually. Celexi posted:I grew up drinking uht milk so I guess I done see the difference Have ya tried regular milk before they switched to Länger Haltbar?
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Apr 14, 2020 09:47
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https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/bayern-soeder-corona-krise-umfrage-1.4875327 This country should not be allowed to be a democracy
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Apr 14, 2020 11:21
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That poll is not so bad, if you exclude the votes from Bavaria.
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Apr 14, 2020 11:45
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cebrail posted:https://www.sueddeutsche.de/bayern/bayern-soeder-corona-krise-umfrage-1.4875327 Soeder's approach definitely seems a little heavy handed and "profilierung" - but maybe Bavaria needs stricter rules than the rest of the country cause otherwise people would ignore him?
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Apr 14, 2020 13:38
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I think it's a mix. A lot of people here are well off, especially in Munich. They need a harder hand because they tend to think they own the world and have been very lenient with the younger regeneration. But also conservative areas, i.e. Bavaria, want a strong leader. Plus right now he is only measured for the Corona response and since you can't compare it to anything of course people will agree he is doing it well, after all he is protecting us you see?
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Apr 14, 2020 13:45
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Good thing we talked about the danger or rather non-danger of touching a thing in public so lengthily because I was able to cite a few good sources in a reopening outline for my job just now.
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Apr 14, 2020 14:16
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"So you see boss, touching my secretary is A-OK and we can both come back to work."
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Apr 14, 2020 14:20
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The FDP just wants to see the world burn https://twitter.com/morgenpost/status/1250042543489912832 also they really want to decimate that 6,7% share of the vote in berlin i guess
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Apr 14, 2020 15:02
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unfortunately FDP are not as old as one might think. Plenty of young BWL students who really like capitalism
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Apr 14, 2020 15:11
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Honj Steak posted:unfortunately FDP are not as old as one might think. Plenty of young BWL students who really like capitalism ... and dislike Freiheitsbeschränkungen that weren‘t discussed and approved in parliament. If he‘s wrong, then the judges will tell him off, if he‘s right, the the executive illegally restricted fundamental rights, something that shouldn’t simply handwaved away. I think Germany is able to lead an open discussion as mandated by democratic procedures on this without everybody dying in the streets or in ICU.
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Apr 14, 2020 15:55
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Honj Steak posted:unfortunately FDP are not as old as one might think. Plenty of young BWL students who really like capitalism oh I know op, I mostly associate FDP with young BWL idiots and tech bros, and people who call themselves entrepreneurs
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Apr 14, 2020 16:30
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How much of this is arguing "You didn't fill out ze proper form" vs. wanting to get rid of the restrictions? It seems more like the former.
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Apr 14, 2020 16:35
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Seems like a good thing to "just" want protocol observed rather than wanting to actively lift the restrictions. I can't really make the quotation marks fat enough around that "just", considering the protocol we're talking about is making sure the most narrow restrictions on our basic rights in the history of the country are actually lawful and proportional. You can't check that enough. In fact there is no point at which you stop checking, you keep on checking every step of the way to make super double sure you still have to do it.
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Apr 14, 2020 16:53
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Ika posted:How much of this is arguing "You didn't fill out ze proper form" vs. wanting to get rid of the restrictions? It seems more like the former. It's some small-time political dipshit hoping for publicity for his dying capitalist party.
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Apr 14, 2020 18:03
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Man, following the new corona numbers got boring. Just steady linear growth for weeks. I guess, that's a win in it's own way.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:47
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cant cook creole bream posted:Man, following the new corona numbers got boring. Just steady linear growth for weeks. I guess, that's a win in it's own way. Not just that, you can't even be optimistic about the numbers from fri/sat/sun/mon and today cause its hard to quantify the weekend effect of a four day weekend and whether people really didn't travel much. The local numbers are still plateauing, we have less active cases now than at the end of march and the number of new cases is growing at most linearly, but also hard to tell until Thursday / Friday. And even when it looks good on Thursday / Friday I end up thinking "But will it still look good next tue/wen". I just work from home all day and look at the dutch / swiss / Austrian / French / Spanish / local german numbers in the evening, "oh might be slightly better but no real change", and repeat 
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Apr 14, 2020 19:57
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Ika posted:Not just that, you can't even be optimistic about the numbers from fri/sat/sun/mon and today cause its hard to quantify the weekend effect of a four day weekend and whether people really didn't travel much. The local numbers are still plateauing, we have less active cases now than at the end of march and the number of new cases is growing at most linearly, but also hard to tell until Thursday / Friday. And even when it looks good on Thursday / Friday I end up thinking "But will it still look good next tue/wen". Yeah. My guess, too. I would rule out April for any widespread change in policy, simply because we won't know before the end of April if the Easter holidays and good weather led to a new spike. But I might have to eat my words tomorrow ...
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Apr 14, 2020 20:18
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If our Oberhobbit wants to open up NRW as soon as possible, I will quarantine myself for 3 weeks and brace for impact. I'm still skeptical that we apparently managed to react so much better than other countries despite having delays as well. I don't really think we should push our luck and assume everything will keep being fine and rush into opening again.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:20
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Randler posted:If our Oberhobbit wants to open up NRW as soon as possible, I will quarantine myself for 3 weeks and brace for impact. Ya, it seems basically too good to be true that we barely got anything even though Netherlands/Belgium/france were hit hard. Even the border region around Aachen which has a huge amount of cross border traffic isn't much worse than the rest of NRW (excepting heinsberg). The response was good but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out there were other factors in play. I mean the virus has been burning through Italy/spain/france like wildfire and they locked down heavily at a similar time. Even if restrictions are relaxed next week I know there are many things I want to do that I will not be doing - but I probably will visit a friend once a week or something to be able to see somebody face to face.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:39
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I think a big factor is a large amount of testing being available straight away so the initial part of the virus spreading could get monitored I'd say twice as well at least as other countries so more people could isolate in earlier stage of their infection. The knock on effect of that is probably quite large down the line.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:09
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elbkaida posted:I think a big factor is a large amount of testing being available straight away so the initial part of the virus spreading could get monitored I'd say twice as well at least as other countries so more people could isolate in earlier stage of their infection. The knock on effect of that is probably quite large down the line. I think starting 2nd week of march or so they made everybody in my city that came back from Austria/Italy ski regions get tested + 2 weeks isolation. But the border regions should still not have such a huge difference.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:16
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Sounds reasonable to me. Basically, Germany and France both lowered activities, once the apparent infections reached a certain amount. But Germany was testing more thoroughly, so we reached that number earlier and essentially stopped the economy at an earlier stage. Alternate explanations include the idea that Germans are a bit more stringent when it comes to following rules than other Europeans and the fact that we have already had a chance to see how bad it got in Italy. Of course, there might be 10.000 new infections and 20.000 new deaths tomorow, making such speculations pointless. Also I guess a large point is that Germany doesn't have any particular hotspots except Ginsberg and maybe Munich or Hamburg. If all infected Germans were safely concentrated in Munich it might be a bit hard to prevent infecting everyone there. cant cook creole bream fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 21:17
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Ika posted:Not just that, you can't even be optimistic about the numbers from fri/sat/sun/mon and today cause its hard to quantify the weekend effect of a four day weekend and whether people really didn't travel much. The local numbers are still plateauing, we have less active cases now than at the end of march and the number of new cases is growing at most linearly, but also hard to tell until Thursday / Friday. And even when it looks good on Thursday / Friday I end up thinking "But will it still look good next tue/wen". I like the way FT shows the numbers of cases/deaths per day with rolling 7 day averages: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest deaths:  cases:
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Apr 14, 2020 21:21
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Mithaldu posted:I like the way FT shows the numbers of cases/deaths per day with rolling 7 day averages: Why is Austria lagging a week behind? It started there earlier than here. Of course the population is smaller, but taking a week longer to get 30 cases in one day implies a lack of testing. A week would multiply the cases by 8 at that point. Unless the infection started with literally one person that seems unlikely.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:28
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cant cook creole bream posted:Why is Austria lagging a week behind? It started there earlier than here. Of course the population is smaller, but taking a week longer to get 30 cases in one day implies a lack of testing. A week would multiply the cases by 8 at that point. Unless the infection started with literally one person that seems unlikely. I remember something about a super spreader event in austria where everyone then basically spread over europe? Maybe just most cases that happened there exported themselves to elsewhere. Mildly related, where did this great idea come from? https://twitter.com/search?q=%23schuloeffnung&src=trend_click
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Apr 14, 2020 21:33
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Germany hospitals have a higher intensive care capacity than most other European countries, it'd take more than that to get to an Italy style breakdown (so consider us lucky for the first wave).
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Apr 14, 2020 21:34
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Mithaldu posted:I remember something about a super spreader event in austria where everyone then basically spread over europe? Maybe just most cases that happened there exported themselves to elsewhere. Ischgl was the superspreader event, it's basically responsible for most of North Germany's infections lmao.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:35
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cant cook creole bream posted:If all infected Germans were safely concentrated in Munich it might be a bit hard to prevent infecting everyone there. But then again why would you?
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Apr 14, 2020 21:36
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cant cook creole bream posted:Why is Austria lagging a week behind? It started there earlier than here. Of course the population is smaller, but taking a week longer to get 30 cases in one day implies a lack of testing. A week would multiply the cases by 8 at that point. Unless the infection started with literally one person that seems unlikely. March 9th was the first day Austria had more than 30 cases in one day. They did 225 tests that day. Austria specific source: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/fb603473e1f74f0bbae48155ff238565
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Apr 14, 2020 21:36
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Young children are rarely symptomatic and need to get out of the house to let the real people work. But yeah, the RKI is actively saying that the Grundschulen should stay closed, because kids are to dumb to keep a basic sense of hygiene.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:39
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cant cook creole bream posted:Young children are rarely symptomatic and need to get out of the house to let the real people work. I think the recommendation is let the senior classes (which have exams that are important for uni/highschool) go to school for the four courses that they selected for exams with social distancing measures in place. Not "open everything back up".
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Apr 14, 2020 21:42
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Yes, despite what some people seem to believe, nobody is seriously suggesting that everything is done and that we should all celebrate with a centralised Fußballrudelschauen. It will happen in increments. And the morale boost of the existence of such increments outweighs the rare additional infections.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:47
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cant cook creole bream posted:Yes, despite what some people seem to believe, nobody is seriously suggesting that everything is done and that we should all celebrate with a centralised Fußballrudelschauen. Exactly - and the small steps will be small enough that you can continue to do track + trace. Actually, is Bavaria etc still doing that? I am fairly sure they are doing that in my region and have increased the size of the teams working on tracing.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:50
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Mithaldu posted:I like the way FT shows the numbers of cases/deaths per day with rolling 7 day averages: I had a quiet, internal meltdown at the FT graphs a couple of days ago, so I guess I'll turn that into a very calm external post: I think it's an extremely bad idea to plot any first derivative (number of new cases per day, number of deaths per day, etc) on a log scale. If you've got exponential growth, plotting the raw number (i.e. total cases, total deaths, etc.) on the log scale will approximate a straight line. That means the rate of change is constant - say, 4% growth per whatever time period. If you take the first derivative of an exponentially growing number and plot that on a log scale, like the FT graphs are doing, you're plotting the rate of change of the rate of change, i.e. the second derivative, in a very roundabout way. When a line goes flat in such a graph, all that means is that there is no change in the number of new cases (i.e. we're down to linear growth of the overall underlying number). But people see that maximum of the line and think "oh well, the worst has blown over, things will get better from here". But 200 new cases per day in the German case, for the foreseeable future, could still potentially have very bad consequences. It's "turning the corner" only in the very narrow sense of "people have stopped dying at previously unprecedented rates", but they will continue dying at rates way above normal for god knows how long. I don't know if the graphs are intentionally misleading (I suspect so), but they are misleading. Anyway, I guess this did turn into a meltdown after all v  v
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Apr 14, 2020 21:58
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Smirr posted:I had a quiet, internal meltdown at the FT graphs a couple of days ago, so I guess I'll turn that into a very calm external post: I think it's an extremely bad idea to plot any first derivative (number of new cases per day, number of deaths per day, etc) on a log scale. If you've got exponential growth, plotting the raw number (i.e. total cases, total deaths, etc.) on the log scale will approximate a straight line. That means the rate of change is constant - say, 4% growth per whatever time period. If you take the first derivative of an exponentially growing number and plot that on a log scale, like the FT graphs are doing, you're plotting the rate of change of the rate of change, i.e. the second derivative, in a very roundabout way. When a line goes flat in such a graph, all that means is that there is no change in the number of new cases (i.e. we're down to linear growth of the overall underlying number). If there is any place to complain about graphs, this is it. And I agree - they should use linear scale and normalize to each countries maximum, then the end of the line is at the top and pointing up -> shits getting worse, if its at the top and a flat line -> stable, if its pointing down -> situation is improving.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:02
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I disagree. A continuous linear growth of new cases over weeks implies stagnation of the active cases, which means that the medical resources stay at a constant usage level. Graphing infections on a lot scale makes a lot of sense, actually. A natural growth of a pandemic would be exponential. This would be a straight line. Once the curvature is growing less than that, we know that the growth rate is not exponential anymore. But to be honest, the best way to see this is to graph new cases as a function of total cases.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:09
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cant cook creole bream posted:But to be honest, the best way to see this is to graph new cases as a function of total cases. How about new cases as a function of active cases? Otherwise a linear growth (e.g. 4000 new cases every day) still results in a decline of the percentile increase, making it look like the spread is going down instead of stagnating.
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Apr 14, 2020 22:12
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cant cook creole bream posted:I disagree. A continuous linear growth of new cases over weeks implies stagnation of the active cases, which means that the medical resources stay at a constant usage level. I also disagree: plotting the total number of cases on a log scale does the things you say. Plotting the number of new cases would approximate a straight line on a linear scale anyway (in case of exponential growth). Plotting new cases on a log scale does nothing but muddy the waters by bringing the second derivative into the picture (covertly) and make the curve flatten faster. Yes, you can extract the information that growth is deviating downwards from exponential, even from the FT graphs, but you could also see that from 1) log-scale graph of total cases (curve deviates downwards from straight line), 2) linear scale of new cases (same thing). Both graphs would clearly communicate that number is still up. Plotting the first derivative on the log scale lets you pretend that number is going down overall, when in fact only the rate of increase has slowed to linear growth or below (but there is still a substantial increase).
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Apr 14, 2020 22:19
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y'all should draw example pictures 
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Apr 14, 2020 22:20
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