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Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

I imagine if anybody is enjoying this oil market it's the Houthi. It certainly works with their plan to attrit and exhaust the Saudis out of Yemen. That is, when they aren't dying of covid19. Some analysts are predicting that Yemen could see 93% of its population infected if nothing changes, and I don't imagine those people are going to have much in the way of medical aid.

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Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Yemen will lead the world in herd immunity.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
So far countries with very low obesity rates and very young aged populations don't get hit very hard. It's a horrible disease, but it's the overweight median age 35+ countries that are getting demolished. We will see though, it's definitely going to be bad through the ME

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Famine and war ensure a thin, young population. Finally found that silver lining!

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
You can't stress healthcare services to the breaking point if they've already been turned into a smoking crater!

Jagged Jim
Sep 26, 2013

I... I can only look though the window...
This is just the perfect time for this poo poo.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252932181447630848?s=20

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

I mean that's one way to increase oil prices...

smn
Feb 15, 2005
tutkalla
Closing the strait in the deal of the century!

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005


Iran's flying gunboats are a real problem, all right.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
I do wonder with the total crash of oil prices and demand if Iran has lost a lot of the leverage they've had in preventing a war with the US. Like the threat has always been they would shut down the strait of Hormuz and oil prices would skyrocket, but with oil in literal negative prices does that even matter anymore?

ganglysumbia
Jan 29, 2005
Closing the straits is not the only card Iran has in shooting war with the US.

Has Iran shut down and quarantined? I know the virus was hitting them hard at the beginning, but don’t know if they went with the herd immunity option... With oil prices, general global economic slowdown, and sanctions it is difficult to see how getting bombed by the US is a good option to take as a way of alleviating those problems.

Though I think the current administration is incapable of doing so, now would probably be the best time to throw them a bone and try to get Trumps version of a good deal.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Charliegrs posted:

I do wonder with the total crash of oil prices and demand if Iran has lost a lot of the leverage they've had in preventing a war with the US. Like the threat has always been they would shut down the strait of Hormuz and oil prices would skyrocket, but with oil in literal negative prices does that even matter anymore?

I don't think closing down the Strait has been much of a deterrent to the US for some time. Back in 2008? Sure. But now the US has fracking up its sleeve in case the price of oil spikes again.

I think the main deterrent to war that Iran offers is that its simply too big and organized and dangerous for the US to go to war with and not cause massive problems for everyone involved.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Someone who speaks Arabic or is A ME poster can you please tell me what this quote means in native translation

"The dog is the brother of the fox" an IRGC commander said this and I want to know if it has a deep meaning or if he was just being whimsicle

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 22:06 on Apr 22, 2020

echomadman
Aug 24, 2004

Nap Ghost

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Someone who speaks Arabic or is A ME poster can you please tell me what this quote means in native translation

"The dog is the brother of the fox" an IRGC commander said this and I want to know if it has a deep meaning or if he was just being whimsicle

https://www.mypersiancorner.com/12-persian-idioms-and-proverbs-animals/

quote:

The yellow dog is symbolic of a bad person and the jackal of someone even worse. This proverb is especially relevant in political matters. For instance, a politician didn’t fulfill his campaign promises, and now here comes another saying he’ll fix everything (but who are we kidding?). When two people are equally bad, don’t be fooled by thinking one may be slightly better. After all, the yellow dog is the brother of the jackal.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes


Thank you so much for the much needed context

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

shocking news out of Libya:

https://www.france24.com/en/20200429-without-naming-libya-s-haftar-france-condemns-unilateral-action-in-libya

quote:

Haftar said on Monday his Libyan National Army (LNA) was accepting a "popular mandate" to rule over the country, apparently brushing aside the civilian authorities which nominally govern eastern Libya.

Libya's UN-recognised government Tuesday accused rival military strongman of seeking to stage a new coup.

Accused by critics of wanting to install a new military dictatorship, Haftar, who controls swathes of eastern and southern Libya, announced his self-styled "army" was "proud to be mandated with the historic task" of leading Libya.

Analysts said his move was a sign he wanted to consolidate his power after a series of setbacks earlier this month, when the interim government forces captured a string of strategic towns west of Tripoli.
. . .
Pro-Haftar forces have been battling to seize Tripoli since April last year but their offensive stalled on the edge of the capital.

Earlier this month GNA forces ousted them from two key coastal cities west of Tripoli.

Backed by Turkey, they are now encircling Haftar's main rear base at Tarhunah, 60 kilometres (39 miles) southeast of the capital.

The GNA claimed Haftar's latest announcement was an attempt to "conceal the defeat of his militias and mercenaries" and "the failure of his dictatorial project".

Hamish Kinnear, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, said his move "to formalise his direct control of eastern Libya is a sign of his rising desperation in the face of GNA successes in western Libya".

"By sweeping aside the authority of the (parliament) and electing himself as undisputed leader in the east, Haftar is making himself central to any negotiated solution," Kinnear said.

what makes this shocking is the realization Haftar had not already said this.

Turkish intervention has really swung the balance of power in Libya back towards the GNA and away from Haftar, who had been looking like he was on the cusp of finally conquering all of Libya. Maybe leaders in the UAE will learn a lesson from this, that proxy battles just result in you and your enemies just end up wasting lots of money and lives symmetrically opposing and balancing one another?

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747
:laffo:

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/04/pompeo-iran-nuclear-deal-global-sanctions.html

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
i guess after the corona stuff the official whitehouse line is gaslighting everyone all the time

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Ironically they probably had the international sway to pull that off 4 years ago or something, but after multiple years of trump? yeah right

Randarkman
Jul 18, 2011

Herstory Begins Now posted:

So far countries with very low obesity rates and very young aged populations don't get hit very hard. It's a horrible disease, but it's the overweight median age 35+ countries that are getting demolished. We will see though, it's definitely going to be bad through the ME

Yeah. Diabetes statistics for the ME are pretty bad to say the last.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Well folks, cargo ships have been flying to and from libya for a couple days,

Jim Jeffrey, US special envoy for Syria: "We know that, certainly the Russians are working with Assad to transfer militia fighters, possibly third country, possibly Syrian, to Libya, as well as equipment."

echomadman
Aug 24, 2004

Nap Ghost
Video about three Irish guys that went to Rojava. A lot of it is in Irish but there are subtitles and they switch back to english a few times

https://vimeo.com/416282414

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

TASS, Russia’s largest state-run news agency, wrote in one editorial that, “Russia suspects that Assad is not only unable to lead the country anymore, but also that the head of the Syrian regime is dragging Moscow towards the Afghani scenario.” This is like evoking the Vietnam War for an American audience, a reference to the Kremlin’s botched campaign through the 1980s that helped bankrupt the Soviet Union and finally break it apart.

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

TASS, Russia’s largest state-run news agency, wrote in one editorial that, “Russia suspects that Assad is not only unable to lead the country anymore, but also that the head of the Syrian regime is dragging Moscow towards the Afghani scenario.” This is like evoking the Vietnam War for an American audience, a reference to the Kremlin’s botched campaign through the 1980s that helped bankrupt the Soviet Union and finally break it apart.

not why the soviet union broke apart. but the sick fucks who funded the monsters in afghanistan would certainly like to believe that had something to do with it, but it's like believing reagan saying "tear down this wall" had anything to do with it.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Zedhe Khoja posted:

not why the soviet union broke apart. but the sick fucks who funded the monsters in afghanistan would certainly like to believe that had something to do with it, but it's like believing reagan saying "tear down this wall" had anything to do with it.

It's a snowball effect, but afghanistan was a piece of that snowball effect. The big thing is the fact that russian media is starting to turn against Assad.


And by the way, destroying the troops confidence in the government was a bad bad thing.

Botshan-Kharchenko: You must understand, Mr. Buurdon, that these attacks against our troops as they withdraw must stop.

Bearden: And if they don't?

Botshan-Kharchenko: Then perhaps we will halt our withdrawal. Then what will you do?

Bearden: It is not what I will do, Counselor; it is what the Afghans will do. And I think they will simply keep on fighting and killing your soldiers until you finally just go home.

Botshan-Kharchenko: But you have some control over such matters.

Bearden: No one has control over such matters, Counselor, except the Soviet Union.

Botshan-Kharchenko: Mr. Buurdon, you must still understand that there will be consequences if these attacks continue.

Bearden: I am sure there will be, Counselor.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 00:40 on May 11, 2020

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

It's a snowball effect, but afghanistan was a piece of that snowball effect. The big thing is the fact that russian media is starting to turn against Assad.

Is that preparing groundwork for government action? And what happens if Assad loses Russian support?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Is that preparing groundwork for government action? And what happens if Assad loses Russian support?

A new Alawite is propped up who's more willing to work on an international solution that pays russia back for their efforts. just depends. Putin's going to be ruling indefinitely so we will see a syria solution that greatly favors russia and possibly turkey.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

A new Alawite is propped up who's more willing to work on an international solution that pays russia back for their efforts. just depends. Putin's going to be ruling indefinitely so we will see a syria solution that greatly favors russia and possibly turkey.

So you think Bashar personally will be removed but they'll still be supporting the same faction?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Absurd Alhazred posted:

So you think Bashar personally will be removed but they'll still be supporting the same faction?

Why not? the faction represents the officer corp of the SAA and SyAAF, which is the faction you need loyal to reshape the country

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Why not? the faction represents the officer corp of the SAA and SyAAF, which is the faction you need loyal to reshape the country

You seem to be extremely optimistic about their ability to seamlessly throw their current leader under the bus and remain a sustainable, unified faction.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Absurd Alhazred posted:

You seem to be extremely optimistic about their ability to seamlessly throw their current leader under the bus and remain a sustainable, unified faction.

Not really, the russian airforce could cripple regime controlled Syria in a pretty fantastic afternoon, and who would be against them? Russia probably doens't enjoy being a sanctioned pariah state. so why not spin the narrative and kill assad, jump headlong into a peace process and win back some international renown?

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
The way these things are normally done is you go talk to some opportunistic relative or opportunistic general, help them pull the trigger, and then work together to spin it as 'look the guy was great in war time, but he got carried away with the torture camps ans the civilian killing and towards the end he was out of control and had lost touch.'

Who knows what will happen, but that kind of thing very definitely isn't unprecedented and I doubt it's a secret to anyone that Assad is personally an immensely toxic character in this and by having literally anyone else in charge of the syrian government you'd guarantee substantially more stability.

Rust Martialis
May 8, 2007

At night, Bavovnyatko quietly comes to the occupiers’ bases, depots, airfields, oil refineries and other places full of flammable items and starts playing with fire there

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Not really, the russian airforce could cripple regime controlled Syria in a pretty fantastic afternoon, and who would be against them? Russia probably doens't enjoy being a sanctioned pariah state. so why not spin the narrative and kill assad, jump headlong into a peace process and win back some international renown?

He said "seamlessly". There is quite a record of regimes having the top guy murked and then oddly the new picked guy having pretty limited support. Vietnam, anyone?

Frond
Mar 12, 2018
It will be Al-Hassan.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Rust Martialis posted:

He said "seamlessly". There is quite a record of regimes having the top guy murked and then oddly the new picked guy having pretty limited support. Vietnam, anyone?

Comparing this to vietnam seems in congruent. without Russian support the SAA and Syaaf woulnd't be returning to their wives and children. Russia can also bring industry to the place whereas the rest of the world won't unless theres a new regime running around that has international recognition.

Syria is a smoldering heap in all but 1 corner. Syria has a sovereign entity occupying 15% of the country and another autonomous region operating another 15%. So 30% of the country is occupied by not the government. That's kind of a problem, especially for Russia who has been in this conflict 4 years now. Theres no end in sight even with rebels slaughtered as long as Assad is on top. The international community will never fund a single thin in Syria (Russia included) in the current state of the country. Aleppo is a blank slate for whoever can rebuild the loving place.

Russia needs a client state that can actually do something and support itself while giving most of the money to Russian multi-national corps. Let's say russia left right now. They lost billions, lost lives, lost lost lost lost. and for what? Syria has some of the best beaches in the world, but there's no tourists because its unsafe, Syria has pretty decent natural resources aswell, outlined here:

https://www.azomining.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=202

quote:

Investment
According to reports, the mining sector of Syria is expected to continue producing phosphate rock and phosphate fertilizer production. However, this production may be hit due to the growing tensions between Syria and its neighbor, Turkey.

The country’s economy will totally depend on the outcome of the civil war in the next couple of years. Experts say that if proper reforms are implemented and transparency at all levels of the government is achieved, there is hope for progress as international companies are keen to invest in its mining sector.

Disclaimer: The Author of this article does not imply any investment recommendation and some content is speculative in nature. The Author is not affiliated in any way with any companies mentioned and all statistical information is publically available.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 07:08 on May 11, 2020

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Iran looks bent on breaking some sort of world record for missile gently caress-ups. This time an anti-ship missile has struck a friendly vessel that was towing a practise target, killing 19 and sinking the ship. Oh well, that's one way to produce data on weapon effectiveness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52612511

Orange Devil
Oct 1, 2010

Wullie's reign cannae smother the flames o' equality!
Look it's an anti-ship missile and the result was a sunk ship. Clearly this was a success.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
Of all the lovely ways to die in the military, training accidents are the worst.

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVz8PqxJOwA

I'm sure this will go over well. MBS showing the people how concerned he is for them in this time of crisis.

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PittTheElder
Feb 13, 2012

:geno: Yes, it's like a lava lamp.

Nenonen posted:

Iran looks bent on breaking some sort of world record for missile gently caress-ups. This time an anti-ship missile has struck a friendly vessel that was towing a practise target, killing 19 and sinking the ship. Oh well, that's one way to produce data on weapon effectiveness.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-52612511

That's integrated anti-decoy functionality right there.

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