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twoday posted:I’ve been reading a very interesting book about the history of the plague that has sent me into a totally batshit rabbit hole of interesting topics that I will post here in a bit. One of the interesting theories it discusses is that one of the reasons the plague ended is that it was constantly mutating and the intensely virulent strains were so intense that they killed off most people that were vulnerable, and in this way ran out of hosts and died. The weaker strains were able to survive longer because less was done to stop them, and by not killing its hosts was able to spread around more and remain somewhat dormant in the population. In this way there was, for many centuries (it is theorized) one strain or another of the plague floating around as a common ailment, and eventually it would mutate again back into superplague and cause a massive outbreak and then die off. But at some point it seems that it grew weaker and weaker and didn’t mutate, and enough people were immune that herd immunity took effect and it more or less just disappeared in many areas. ehhhhh, it couldn't have been mutating too too fast, the justinian plague, which was the same yersinia pestis plague, went away completely until the black death plague and it was only that one that became endemic and re-occurring in europe. if it mutated fast enough, it should have mutated into lease deadly strains to stick around permanently the first time we know that it infected a lot of people, and it's also been theorized to have been responsible for the neolithic decline
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Apr 28, 2020 04:09
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oxsnard posted:So disease experts: .... somethingdiseaseexperts.com
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Apr 28, 2020 04:10
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fermun posted:ehhhhh, it couldn't have been mutating too too fast, the justinian plague, which was the same yersinia pestis plague, went away completely until the black death plague and it was only that one that became endemic and re-occurring in europe. if it mutated fast enough, it should have mutated into lease deadly strains to stick around permanently the first time we know that it infected a lot of people, and it's also been theorized to have been responsible for the neolithic decline some people think the plague of justinian was a viral hemorrhagic fever
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Apr 28, 2020 04:10
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blatman posted:i'm pretty sure prester jane is the reason a lot of us have bean stockpiles right now you do know you can still get beans right
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Apr 28, 2020 04:13
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Random rear end in a top hat posted:What's something good to get? Can I get sliced deli meat and put it in the freezer? I have mostly ground beef, chicken leg quarters, pork shoulder, and fish fillets. I'm pretty good at cooking, so I have focused on unprocessed meat. So I buy a 15 lb bundle of pork cushion at smart and final, split it into 8 ziplocks, and throw it into the chest freezer.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:13
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GATES FOUNDATION posted:some people think the plague of justinian was a viral hemorrhagic fever i don't see how that's a theory that holds water now since 5 years ago yersinia pestis dna was found in the bodies of 2 people that died of the justinian plague. also, lol that the black death originated in wuhan china. fermun has issued a correction as of 04:17 on Apr 28, 2020 |
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Apr 28, 2020 04:14
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Bar Ran Dun posted:need the devils dung friend. gotta have hing, asafoetida powder. just make sure that poo poo is like in its bottle, in a ziplock bag, inside a sealed mason jar. lm,ao ive got that poo poo in a bottle inside of a ziplock inside of another bottle in the very back at the top of my cabinent, and it still smells
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Apr 28, 2020 04:15
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:you do know you can still get beans right maybe you can but the bean aisle at the store next to my apartment has been barren for weeks
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Apr 28, 2020 04:17
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A prison in NC has 700 inmates, 444 tested positive and 90% had no symptoms. does it mean anything, who knows
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Apr 28, 2020 04:18
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SKULL.GIF posted:hehe 🙃🙃🙃🙃 It's absolute fantasy that the steps we've taken hoping to accomplish exactly these results, caused these results exactly when they were supposed to. It's unrelated. Remove all protections now!!!!!
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Apr 28, 2020 04:20
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a big gently caress YOU to the rear end in a top hat jogging while i was walking to the corner store. no mask, ran RIGHT BY me huffing and puffing. and another to the hipster rear end in a top hat couple IN the store not wearing masks. ITS BEEN SIX loving WEEKS YOU ASSHOLES i can almost not walk safely in my loving neighborhood anymore. T RUMMP
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Apr 28, 2020 04:21
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NoDamage posted:A few specific antibody studies were heavily criticized due to the antibody test finding a prevalence rate that was within the false positive rate of the test used, meaning the results were essentially inconclusive. Some goons have apparently interpreted this to mean that no antibody study could ever be valid, which is... not the correct conclusion. We also don't know how sensitive that antibody test is toward other, related diseases, if it has a different false positive rate... Basically, it's a meaningful data point but you need other data points to put it in a context where it's remotely useful. Anything before that is going to be straight nonsense.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:21
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oxsnard posted:So disease experts: do people think that if we don't get a vaccine and immunity only last for months, will we get hit with deadly waves of disease every year or do humans get better at fighting it off and it becomes like the common cold? i don't think there's any evidence it only lasts a few months. so far there is not a credible amount of reinfections that isn't just early discharge/poor testing/extremely weird immunocompromised clusterfuck of a meatsack. that said, there was a study done in the early 90s on a different corona virus and they a major decrease in antigen stuff and found 13 out of 15 patient were able to get re-infected a year later (albeit without symptoms on that particular strain but that's not good at at all)
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Apr 28, 2020 04:23
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Chinatown posted:a big gently caress YOU to the rear end in a top hat jogging while i was walking to the corner store. no mask, ran RIGHT BY me huffing and puffing. and another to the hipster rear end in a top hat couple IN the store not wearing masks. I saw most people at the grocery today here in illinois were not wearing a mask. I was a little surprised but oh well. Gonna die.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:23
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SKULL.GIF posted:hehe 🙃🙃🙃🙃 
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Apr 28, 2020 04:23
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Mons Hubris posted:A prison in NC has 700 inmates, 444 tested positive and 90% had no symptoms. does it mean anything, who knows Depends how long it stays like that. If I recall, the cruise ship had a very large number of asymptomatic cases when they were testing everyone, but the asymptomatic percentage dropped over time. It was still a high percentage at the end though, like 50%ish. I'd also be curious about age distribution there. As I've heard before that asymptomatic cases are more likely in young people, but I'm not sure to what extent that's true. wilderthanmild has issued a correction as of 04:35 on Apr 28, 2020 |
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Apr 28, 2020 04:24
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A Bakers Cousin posted:I saw most people at the grocery today here in illinois were not wearing a mask. I was a little surprised but oh well. Gonna die. masks that are anything but properly worn actual filtration masks are most likely harmful security theater hth
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Apr 28, 2020 04:25
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I still don’t understand how the same generation that was traumatized by leaving Vietnam “too early” and made sure we are still in Afghanistan completely went to pieces after 3 weeks without a haircut. What the gently caress?
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Apr 28, 2020 04:25
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Xaris posted:i don't think there's any evidence it only lasts a few months. so far there is not a credible amount of reinfections that isn't just early discharge/poor testing/extremely weird immunocompromised clusterfuck of a meatsack. This but also another factor people don't talk about is even if you aren't immune, your immune system might not find it 'novel' anymore, and maybe it doesn't freak out and kill all your major organs trying to fight it off. So we don't know on two dimensions; how long does immunity last, and what happens if you get it twice?
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Apr 28, 2020 04:26
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hallebarrysoetoro posted:masks that are anything but properly worn actual filtration masks are most likely harmful security theater hth I think this is BS because my dental hygienist wears one every time and she seems smart.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:27
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endlessmonotony posted:We also don't know how sensitive that antibody test is toward other, related diseases, if it has a different false positive rate...
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Apr 28, 2020 04:31
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Salt Fish posted:I think this is BS because my dental hygienist wears one every time and she seems smart. for coronavirus ya silly goose
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Apr 28, 2020 04:31
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ryanrs posted:I'm pretty good at cooking You and I are very different people! Still, thanks a lot for the warning, I can figure out some stuff to get based on my extremely limited cooking skills. Also, 99% of this thread won't care, but my mother is recovering well after she cut her head open and we were told not to go to the hospital. She has a pretty gnarly scar but it's mostly obscured by her hair, at this point the bald spot she gave herself by dumping an entire bottle of liquid bandage on her head while I wasn't looking is more noticeable. Thanks to everyone for their encouragement and support!
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Apr 28, 2020 04:32
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A Bakers Cousin posted:I saw most people at the grocery today here in illinois were not wearing a mask. I was a little surprised but oh well. Gonna die. im in the second highest rate of infection zip code in the city too. the highest one is adjacent to mine.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:32
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Salt Fish posted:This but also another factor people don't talk about is even if you aren't immune, your immune system might not find it 'novel' anymore, and maybe it doesn't freak out and kill all your major organs trying to fight it off. So we don't know on two dimensions; how long does immunity last, and what happens if you get it twice? Hopefully it isn't like dengue that each strain you get, you get worse symptoms
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Apr 28, 2020 04:33
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Frosted Flake posted:I still don’t understand how the same generation that was traumatized by leaving Vietnam “too early” and made sure we are still in Afghanistan completely went to pieces after 3 weeks without a haircut. Only something like 10% of then were in the military during the war and only like 10% of that saw any combat. Really easy to thump your chest when you're not the one with your rear end on the line. The war was even quite popular among boomers until you couldn't just dodge the draft simply by attending college. They would have gladly let poor underprivileged kids, and a smaller proportion of true believers, die in their stead indefinitely if it was truly up to them. wilderthanmild has issued a correction as of 04:38 on Apr 28, 2020 |
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Apr 28, 2020 04:34
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Frosted Flake posted:I still don’t understand how the same generation that was traumatized by leaving Vietnam “too early” and made sure we are still in Afghanistan completely went to pieces after 3 weeks without a haircut. Most of them didn’t go to either
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Apr 28, 2020 04:35
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hallebarrysoetoro posted:for coronavirus ya silly goose I still think you're wrong. I mean just think about it for a second. You're getting surgery; is it harmful security theater if the operating doctor is wearing a mask?
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Apr 28, 2020 04:35
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NoDamage posted:A few specific antibody studies were heavily criticized due to the antibody test finding a prevalence rate that was within the false positive rate of the test used, meaning the results were essentially inconclusive. Some goons have apparently interpreted this to mean that no antibody study could ever be valid, which is... not the correct conclusion. I think the easiest route is just taking peak weekly excess deaths vs baseline, which is like 5 or 6x normal. Apply that to the whole population, round down for herd immunity at 70-80% , round up for excess deaths being less than true covid deaths because, as we see elsewhere, overall deaths are down due to lockdowns Basically you're looking at millions dead still nationally, and it's gonna be national unless states close their borders like Hawaii
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Apr 28, 2020 04:35
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NoDamage posted:I mean, that's why antibody tests are validated against known positive and negative samples to determine how well they actually work. Yeah, and fortunately the real world is clean enough you have a binary "YES/NO" infection status for the test to measure that doesn't ever react to anything else. That's sarcasm. We don't know what factors influence the results of the test because we haven't had the opportunity to gather that much data. gently caress, a lot of the tests came pre-contaminated with SARS2 and that happening to some but not all tests is... honestly expected.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:36
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Salt Fish posted:I still think you're wrong. I mean just think about it for a second. You're getting surgery; is it harmful security theater if the operating doctor is wearing a mask? It's more about breaking the temptation to lick your insides really. Gotta break those habits somehow. I agree with you. I just had a uncontrollable urge to post that.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:37
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hallebarrysoetoro posted:masks that are anything but properly worn actual filtration masks are most likely harmful security theater hth haha based on what fucko
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Apr 28, 2020 04:39
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ryanrs posted:Prepare for the meat shortage, if you have freezer space. With Texas opening up, and the absolute glut of feral hogs, there's plenty of pork if you're not afraid of overcooking it/getting those weird parasites that live in certain game meats SKULL.GIF posted:hehe 🙃🙃🙃🙃 He has to get back up to Hannity's numbers ... IN DEATHS! fermun posted:ehhhhh, it couldn't have been mutating too too fast, the justinian plague, which was the same yersinia pestis plague, went away completely until the black death plague and it was only that one that became endemic and re-occurring in europe. if it mutated fast enough, it should have mutated into lease deadly strains to stick around permanently the first time we know that it infected a lot of people, and it's also been theorized to have been responsible for the neolithic decline The black plague wasn't a human contagion factor, it was more a rat/flea factor and how fast fleeing peasants could spread those vectors before things happened. Yeah, it shredded Europe, but that was a side effect. At least, that's ho I read it.  wilderthanmild posted:Depends how long it stays like that. If I recall, the cruise ship had a very large number of asymptomatic cases when they were testing everyone, but the asymptomatic percentage dropped over time. It was still a high percentage at the end though, like 50%ish. Asymptomatic doesn't mean unaffected, it means showing no obvious symptoms. Completely unaffected are carriers.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:39
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oxsnard posted:So I was working in a TB lab in 2007 when everyone freaked out about the XDR TB patient who got on an airplane. So what's crazy is that TB is already a slow growing bacteria (takes 6-8 weeks for visible colonies to appear vs a day for strep). But the drug resistance traits are mutations that generally make the bacteria work less efficiently. Like an antibiotic will block cell wall formation but then the drug resistant mutation will have a deformed, idiotic protein for building the cell wall slower but not able to be blocked by the antibiotic. So once you start stacking these resistance traits in top of each other, you've got the Charles II of TB strains. Even in culture form, they make weak rear end whispy looking colonies on the plate that take 10 weeks to show up and will die if they're stored at one degree difference from the "normal" reference range. Whereas normal reference strains of TB will stay alive on the plate even if you accidentally leave it in the walk in fridge over the weekend. Hmm that’s pretty interesting, and makes sense. With the plague it was a bit more complicated because transmission involved several animals, primarily the rat and and the flea (two species of flea even, the rat flea and the human flea). At some point the disease, which was originally limited to rats, developed the ability to infect humans by means of fleas from the rats biting humans. When a flea is infected, its digestive system becomes blocked, and when it attempts to bite someone and suck out their blood, it chokes and ends up vomiting out some of the bacteria. This kills the flea. But then once it is in a human, it could spread to other humans by means of a different species of flea, the human flea, which lives only on humans. So you have 4 species involved, and it would usually have a super high death rate in all of them (like 90%) sometimes, and it would constantly be mutating but these mutations would constantly end up trapped in evolutionary cul-de-sacs where it either killed off all the vulnerable rats, or all the vulnerable people, or one species or another developed some immunity. Sometimes all the rats would die, yet some humans would survive, or vice versa. However, some of the weaker mutations would be able to survive somewhere as a dormant weak illness, sometimes apparently losing the ability to jump species for a while. But then it would mutate again and be able to infect people again, and become super deadly again. Occasionally it would mutate from bubonic to pneumonic plague and become transmissible by air, but the death rate of pneumonic plague was often nearly 100% so these outbreaks were usually rare and short-lived, because they killed off all their hosts so fast. And now for the batshit crazy part, because rats were involved, the virulence of the disease often depended on the size of the rat population. I did not know this, but apparently it’s normal in nature that the sizes of certain animal populations fluctuate in a cyclical manner, and for instance there are tons of beavers or minks in nature one year, and a lot fewer 5 years later, and then a ton of them again 5 years after that, repeating in 10 year cycles. Why this happens is not entirely clear, and it’s a very complex process. One theory is that it has something to do with solar cycles, which are also about 10 years long, and have to do with the intensity of solar activity and the relative frequency of the appearance of sun spots. The intensity of this effect in a certain area dependent on its latitude, and various other factors. It seems that in the Netherlands, and in other places, plague outbreaks occurred more or less every 10 years, and it has been theorized that this might have been because there were more rats at certain times than others, and that this is related to the solar cycles. However, it was also theorized that the solar activity itself may have had some kind of direct impact on the bacteria and its virulence, or even that these cycles have a more universal impact on life in earth, and determine whether there is more or less of this bacteria, or that swarming insect, or the number of rats around. And fluctuations in solar activity also of course affect plants, and this has a knock-on effect to the species of animals which eat these plants, and so on through the entire food chain. I just started reading about this and I don’t really understand it that well yet.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:39
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Salt Fish posted:I still think you're wrong. I mean just think about it for a second. You're getting surgery; is it harmful security theater if the operating doctor is wearing a mask? masks definitely confer some protection to the wearer and definitely prevent the transmission of the wearer's own respiratory droplets, but they're for Our Heroes on the Frontlines and not the peasants
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Apr 28, 2020 04:40
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Salt Fish posted:I still think you're wrong. I mean just think about it for a second. You're getting surgery; is it harmful security theater if the operating doctor is wearing a mask? if you're expelling a billion ronis, yes, because non-n95/99/100 masks don't really stop it and basically trap viruses there. generally they don't do surgery on people that are spreading deadly airborne viruses
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Apr 28, 2020 04:42
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yeah sorry not donating my n95s. i got a box way before rona so im not a hoarder.
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Apr 28, 2020 04:42
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Chinatown posted:im in the second highest rate of infection zip code in the city too. the highest one is adjacent to mine. do you live in the tenderloin
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Apr 28, 2020 04:42
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a_pineapple posted:gaaaah gently caress this is it isn't it. this is finally the thing that take out homo sapiens. so does coronavirus go before or after heart in the captain planet summoning process
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Apr 28, 2020 04:43
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A Bakers Cousin posted:I saw most people at the grocery today here in illinois were not wearing a mask. I was a little surprised but oh well. Gonna die. it was about 50 / 50 when I went out earlier. looked like no one over 50 had a mask on except for the store workers
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Apr 28, 2020 04:43
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