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SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


FizFashizzle posted:

this town isn't dying, it's dead.

I thought you were in Knoxville? Or are you somewhere else in eastern TN?

edit: obviously you don't have to give away your location if you don't feel comfortable answering

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Google Butt
Oct 4, 2005

Xenology is an unnatural mixture of science fiction and formal logic. At its core is a flawed assumption...

that an alien race would be psychologically human.

let's all take a trip to covid town

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Inceltown posted:

This is a quote from a dystopian novel not a reality and you can't make me believe otherwise.

america is a dystopia

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257802182876975104

Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus


SKULL.GIF posted:

america is a dystopia

JesustheDarkLord
May 22, 2006

#VolsDeep
Lipstick Apathy

SKULL.GIF posted:

I thought you were in Knoxville? Or are you somewhere else in eastern TN?

edit: obviously you don't have to give away your location if you don't feel comfortable answering

Sounds like Oneida or one of 100 other towns

galenanorth
May 19, 2016

https://twitter.com/IdeasNotMoney/status/1257841037093019653

I shouldn't be doing anything but skipping over CHUD replies, but this is like making starving people walk into deep water with lead weights around their feet, seeing how far they'll go to risk drowning for a crate of food at the bottom, and then asking if it's the water that's racist every time as black people, who would be disproportionately starving in such a scenario, drown

https://twitter.com/raygainespdx/status/1257841521392406528

snoo
Jul 5, 2007




FizFashizzle posted:

medical updates from the poorest county in the nation with a population over 10k!

i am not madjackal, i am not covid frontline. instead i am getting to see what this has done to a poor community.

im doing a rotation for family medicine here. the clinic is small; it only has 7 beds. the regional hospital closed two years ago. we can't do any serious labs, and anything more complicated than an xray requires a 30 minute trip down to crossville.

75% of my patients are over 50 but look 70. All have chronic lung conditions and diabetes. All are smokers with terrible diets. Every single one is on a statin, an ace/arb, and metformin. All of them have to use the generics because they can't afford anything else.

we don't let them come into the clinic all at once. patients sit in their cars until their number is up, then a nurse brings them in. outside is just rows of beat down buicks and absurd trucks the driver likely owes more on than its worth. we don't know what we'll do when it gets hot; none of the patients can afford to burn the gas to keep the AC going, but they'll all get heat stroke if they sit in their cars. it's a future problem.

none have savings. all are paycheck to paycheck. there's no industry in this town. there's a shipping plant some 30 miles away but i don't think any of them work there. most of my patients around my age work in home health or as a cna. one told me today she worked a 122 hour shift last week at a retirement home because she missed the week before with a fever. she's taking care of her husband who has stage 4 chf, and is hoping soon to get her medical billing license so she can work from home and take better care of them.

They all ask me if they think this is as bad as the news makes it out to be. They ask me if they're being lied too. I've been telling them all it's worse. I don't know if I can do that anymore. These people have loving nothing. We mock people in this thread, but imagine someone on a fixed income living in a dilapidated house that the bank is just waiting to pounce on. Obviously they don't need to go out; none of these peopel would survive covid, but christ your heart melts.

speaking of meeting places, there's only two joints open in this town. Tennessee has done a weird soft open for restaurants as long as every other table is empty. One of the two places is called the Fresh Market. it's in a chevron gas station. I went there for lunch yesterday with my classmate. we were wearing scrubs.

they wouldn't let us pay for the meal. somebody in there had comped it. we were gonna get it to go but i told him we had to stay in and eat it there or else we it might look ungrateful. I actually got a pretty good salad. When we left, someone near the store stood up and thanked us.

The other open restaurant is on the other end of main street and is called west end diner. it's just an open space with some foldout tables pushed together. at the front there's a small counter with a register. the walls are empty except for random religious nick knacks like you get from wal mart. I got a cup of coffee there this morning. everyone stopped talking when i walked in. there was no music playing.

every other store on the main street is closed except for the store that sells flower bouquets. people don't stop dying. there's an american flag bouquet in the front window.

the wal mart is bad here. the parking lot lights don't work. no one parks in the spaces anyway. it's the town's only grocery store. there was a discount food place, but that's had to close since all the restaurants closed too. the wal mart is out of beef; i managed to score some cubed beef tonight which was one of the last things on the shelf. there's no rice. there's no cleaning supplies.

when im waiting in line, an attractive woman a little older than me says hello to someone else. She stands out. her body has all the right shapes, and not in a demeaning way. just that everyone else around her has osteoarthritis, or is so obese they kinda lose their form. Not this one. her hair has been combed. she has a good smile. she's literally glowing, like standing out among everyone else. she's beautiful.

"can't wait to see you back at church," she says to someone else. the person she's talking to is skinny, greasy haired, can't meet her gaze.

"yeah, i've been watching on youtube, what gets streamed." he's rubbing his arms. i can see the marks from across the self check out area. some are fresh. when you're malnourished you don't heal very well, especially when you're pumping meth into your arms. he's buying a case of mountain dew.

she just smiles at him, then offers to help someone else she sees from church.

on the way out i see a man completely hunched forward. he's leaning on his shopping cart for support. he's not as old as he looks. a red maga hat pulled low, uncut hair sprawling, "proud to be a deplorable" on his shirt. he can barely walk. he's bow legged and his shoes are falling apart.

this town isn't dying, it's dead. it was supported by a small group of people spending what little they could scratch and save, what little they got in fixed income, what little they could borrow from family, to keep a pitiful little economy going. no money was coming in here before. it was just swirling in a circle, like when you pull the plug on a drain. and that last bit seems to spin and spin, and then suddenly it vanishes. and it never comes back.

snoo
Jul 5, 2007




FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







SKULL.GIF posted:

I thought you were in Knoxville? Or are you somewhere else in eastern TN?


JesustheDarkLord posted:

Sounds like Oneida or one of 100 other towns

Jamestown.

I'm going back to knoxville on the weekends. I'm not kidding when I say I'm gonna make all my food for the next week and bring it. I don't think that wal mart is going to have much come next monday.

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene

Consummate Professional posted:

seems normal for florida

It absolutely is, given the angle they're an old shitter who stomped on the gas and thought it was the brake

E: just saw the video and yup, loving olds

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


facetoucher cat posted:

I think I figured it out...



lol

empty whippet box
Jun 9, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

lol this is how he's firing fauci but he is too much of a coward to say that.

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003

SPORTS

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/opinion/scott-boras-mlb-baseball-coronavirus.html

super rich baseball agent: we need to bring baseball back

Happy Thread
Jul 10, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
Plaster Town Cop
So how many of y'all think that the billionaire pedo cabal has some kind of antidote or exclusive treatment beyond the last-ditch interventions that we know of (which tend to be pretty high risk)?

Otherwise how come we hav seen almost no important high-ranking people die from this besides non-Westerners? Surely some have been infected by now

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?


commence rug sweeping operation

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


FizFashizzle posted:

medical updates from the poorest county in the nation with a population over 10k!

i am not madjackal, i am not covid frontline. instead i am getting to see what this has done to a poor community.

im doing a rotation for family medicine here. the clinic is small; it only has 7 beds. the regional hospital closed two years ago. we can't do any serious labs, and anything more complicated than an xray requires a 30 minute trip down to crossville.

75% of my patients are over 50 but look 70. All have chronic lung conditions and diabetes. All are smokers with terrible diets. Every single one is on a statin, an ace/arb, and metformin. All of them have to use the generics because they can't afford anything else.

we don't let them come into the clinic all at once. patients sit in their cars until their number is up, then a nurse brings them in. outside is just rows of beat down buicks and absurd trucks the driver likely owes more on than its worth. we don't know what we'll do when it gets hot; none of the patients can afford to burn the gas to keep the AC going, but they'll all get heat stroke if they sit in their cars. it's a future problem.

none have savings. all are paycheck to paycheck. there's no industry in this town. there's a shipping plant some 30 miles away but i don't think any of them work there. most of my patients around my age work in home health or as a cna. one told me today she worked a 122 hour shift last week at a retirement home because she missed the week before with a fever. she's taking care of her husband who has stage 4 chf, and is hoping soon to get her medical billing license so she can work from home and take better care of them.

They all ask me if they think this is as bad as the news makes it out to be. They ask me if they're being lied too. I've been telling them all it's worse. I don't know if I can do that anymore. These people have loving nothing. We mock people in this thread, but imagine someone on a fixed income living in a dilapidated house that the bank is just waiting to pounce on. Obviously they don't need to go out; none of these peopel would survive covid, but christ your heart melts.

speaking of meeting places, there's only two joints open in this town. Tennessee has done a weird soft open for restaurants as long as every other table is empty. One of the two places is called the Fresh Market. it's in a chevron gas station. I went there for lunch yesterday with my classmate. we were wearing scrubs.

they wouldn't let us pay for the meal. somebody in there had comped it. we were gonna get it to go but i told him we had to stay in and eat it there or else we it might look ungrateful. I actually got a pretty good salad. When we left, someone near the store stood up and thanked us.

The other open restaurant is on the other end of main street and is called west end diner. it's just an open space with some foldout tables pushed together. at the front there's a small counter with a register. the walls are empty except for random religious nick knacks like you get from wal mart. I got a cup of coffee there this morning. everyone stopped talking when i walked in. there was no music playing.

every other store on the main street is closed except for the store that sells flower bouquets. people don't stop dying. there's an american flag bouquet in the front window.

the wal mart is bad here. the parking lot lights don't work. no one parks in the spaces anyway. it's the town's only grocery store. there was a discount food place, but that's had to close since all the restaurants closed too. the wal mart is out of beef; i managed to score some cubed beef tonight which was one of the last things on the shelf. there's no rice. there's no cleaning supplies.

when im waiting in line, an attractive woman a little older than me says hello to someone else. She stands out. her body has all the right shapes, and not in a demeaning way. just that everyone else around her has osteoarthritis, or is so obese they kinda lose their form. Not this one. her hair has been combed. she has a good smile. she's literally glowing, like standing out among everyone else. she's beautiful.

"can't wait to see you back at church," she says to someone else. the person she's talking to is skinny, greasy haired, can't meet her gaze.

"yeah, i've been watching on youtube, what gets streamed." he's rubbing his arms. i can see the marks from across the self check out area. some are fresh. when you're malnourished you don't heal very well, especially when you're pumping meth into your arms. he's buying a case of mountain dew.

she just smiles at him, then offers to help someone else she sees from church.

on the way out i see a man completely hunched forward. he's leaning on his shopping cart for support. he's not as old as he looks. a red maga hat pulled low, uncut hair sprawling, "proud to be a deplorable" on his shirt. he can barely walk. he's bow legged and his shoes are falling apart.

this town isn't dying, it's dead. it was supported by a small group of people spending what little they could scratch and save, what little they got in fixed income, what little they could borrow from family, to keep a pitiful little economy going. no money was coming in here before. it was just swirling in a circle, like when you pull the plug on a drain. and that last bit seems to spin and spin, and then suddenly it vanishes. and it never comes back.

Walmart loves to move into towns like that, crash every local store into the ground, and on cue fall to poo poo as soon as they're the only option.

Pyrus Malus
Nov 22, 2007
APPLES
has anybody posted about how the IHME model, the one that's ridiculously insanely optimistic and the one people were getting the "60k by august" figure from, just quietly more than doubled their death predictions by august 4th? lmao it's at like 135k right now and I still think that's considered some realass optimism

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.


one more victory for The Titian Titan, hooraay

Rauros
Aug 25, 2004

wanna go grub thumping?

Pyrus Malus posted:

has anybody posted about how the IHME model, the one that's ridiculously insanely optimistic and the one people were getting the "60k by august" figure from, just quietly more than doubled their death predictions by august 4th? lmao it's at like 135k right now and I still think that's considered some realass optimism

it was posted yesterday. i laughed at the CEA tweet saying how the IMHE model has fit the data so well when there's like three different curves superimposed with goalposts moving to the right for the peak and decline. the model is reactionary and not predictive...worthless.

bird.
Jun 20, 2010

Pyrus Malus posted:

has anybody posted about how the IHME model, the one that's ridiculously insanely optimistic and the one people were getting the "60k by august" figure from, just quietly more than doubled their death predictions by august 4th? lmao it's at like 135k right now and I still think that's considered some realass optimism

What they very clearly understand is that we are always 60k from peak, the model is n+60k and it's brilliant

Pyrus Malus
Nov 22, 2007
APPLES

Rauros posted:

it was posted yesterday. i laughed at the CEA tweet saying how the IMHE model has fit the data so well when there's like three different curves superimposed with goalposts moving to the right for the peak and decline. the model is reactionary and not predictive...worthless.

it's legitimately concerning how many people I know that are getting their data from this thing but at least now instead of going "hey why would the covid19 graph have a normal distribution" I can instead be all "actually they've updated their model like 4 times because the whole thing was poo poo from the beginning"

bring back old gbs
Feb 28, 2007

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:

https://twitter.com/covidperspectiv/status/1257775773269651456?s=21

huh, this was one of my benchmarks for “things are kind of normal again”, Disney reopening parks

guess everything’s cool now :banjo:

lmao disney revenues are down 90%

facetoucher cat
Dec 20, 2013

by sebmojo

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

Walmart loves to move into towns like that, crash every local store into the ground, and on cue fall to poo poo as soon as they're the only option.

Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. Appalachia and my general "stomping grounds" are overrun with horribleness and food deserts. People say eat right (not necessarily people itt who are all beautiful and smart) but you can't even buy a banana within 20 miles of some places and then it's at a Pilot gas station

Impkins Patootie
Apr 20, 2017





snoo posted:

nothing matters

mystes
May 31, 2006

empty whippet box posted:

lol this is how he's firing fauci but he is too much of a coward to say that.
The second task force was going to be a way to fire Fauci, but they're not even bothering with that. I think this is beyond Fauci and they've simply decided to declare covid 19 over regardless of what happens or how many people die because the chuds want their Applebee's.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010

KaptainKrunk posted:

states with less than a 5% CFR rate are either testing a lot more or are mispresenting covid deaths

I'll let you guess which one

Eh, the death rate usually starts out low. It's only once the epidemic really starts overwhelming the hospitals in an area that it shoots up.

Stefan Prodan
Jan 7, 2002

I deeply respect you as a human being... Some day I'm gonna make you *Mrs* Buck Turgidson!


Grimey Drawer
one thing I think people aren't really used to either is that like

the models are trying to approximate exponential growth so like being at say 180k vs 120k when the original prediction was 60k is not like twice as wrong if that makes sense

it's gonna be wrong in terms of like orders of exponential growth so that's why the ranges are like 120k to a million and poo poo like that

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

Here is the full set list for Trumps mask factory visit

https://twitter.com/zachjourno/status/1257791283214639106

actionjackson
Jan 12, 2003


sal-min (we will) rush (to) die

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

https://twitter.com/HelloCullen/status/1257811732795289600

Inceltown
Aug 6, 2019

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1257330828729823232/pu/vid/720x1280/pViqgVFVnuI-AflK.mp4

facetoucher cat
Dec 20, 2013

by sebmojo


He's over it all

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.


pro click

Happy Thread
Jul 10, 2005

by Fluffdaddy
Plaster Town Cop

Call Your Grandma posted:

That scene with the Doth'raki at the end of GoT, but it's boomers with homemade signs instead of fiery scythes.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

FizFashizzle posted:

medical updates from the poorest county in the nation with a population over 10k!

does any of this disintegration explain chuds, or is this kind of place just a fig leaf chuds frantically pull over their sub/exurbanism

FAUXTON
Jun 2, 2005

spero che tu stia bene


loving christ people still dress like that?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
WTF. This better be in an anti-Trump election ad

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257814281330069504

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

Charlz Guybon posted:

Eh, the death rate usually starts out low. It's only once the epidemic really starts overwhelming the hospitals in an area that it shoots up.

a lot of times it has also been when it overwhelms testing, the hospitalization rate doesnt seem to convert neatly to a death rate thank god

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Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Stefan Prodan posted:

one thing I think people aren't really used to either is that like

the models are trying to approximate exponential growth so like being at say 180k vs 120k when the original prediction was 60k is not like twice as wrong if that makes sense

it's gonna be wrong in terms of like orders of exponential growth so that's why the ranges are like 120k to a million and poo poo like that

It's also hard to accurately capture uncertainty on something like a lognormal distribution. The C-SPAM guesses had a huge long tail of guesses over 300k, but using one of the best distribution-agnostic confidence intervals (95% bootstrap confidence interval of the median) still gave a pretty compact range of 154000 - 186000, which isn't too dissimilar from what a lot of the epidemiological models show.

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