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Throatwarbler posted:I thought 70% of whites generally just voted republican at every election regardless of anything. Like Trump lost a chunk of white women since he was a literal rapist of white women running against a white woman, but gained a huge chunk of white men so it was a wash at the end. Obama won because he turned out the minority vote. minority and youth yeah, it's why the Dems have eaten poo poo every time they've run somebody trying desperately to bring aboard the suburban white center right cohort Even Bill ran initially on a left populist platform, same as Obama, only to immediately drop it and be as bad as a Republican, also like Obama
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May 13, 2020 23:13
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Epic High Five posted:it ignores the demos that Dems traditionally rely on that he's doing the worst in a generation with, such as the under 50 and latinos. Gripe about young people all you want, the Dems still don't win without them. Does that poll actually show any other demos? I bet he is doing lovely with latinos, but I clicked thru but he doesnt link to the poll. I wonder if there are in depth head to head polls from may 2016... that'd be a better comparison. Also the big change for the white vote in the Trump coalition vs. The Romney coalition is Trump gave up a chunk of the college educated white vote to get a chunk of the non-college white vote. Overall a wash/loss in the popular vote, but a good strategy in the electoral college. One More Fat Nerd has issued a correction as of 23:19 on May 13, 2020 |
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May 13, 2020 23:14
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Bush woulda lost to Kerry pretty handily if he had Trump's approval numbers. He woulda lost if the election had been a month later.
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May 13, 2020 23:18
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One More Fat Nerd posted:Does that poll actually show any other demos? I bet he is doing lovely with latinos, but I clicked thru but he doesnt link to the poll. the last one I know of that polled Latinos specifically was I believe the Emerson one from a few days ago, which had him around 51% - 10% lower than Hillary, who was 10% lower than Obama they're gonna lose them as a bloc within 10 years
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May 13, 2020 23:30
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Remember when Bernie won by like 40% in Nevada because of Latino turnout?
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May 13, 2020 23:31
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One More Fat Nerd posted:I think some of CSPAM are genuinely living in another world thats completely different from this one. trump is 100% winning that demo
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May 13, 2020 23:32
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Cup Runneth Over posted:Remember when Bernie won by like 40% in Nevada because of Latino turnout? no, it’s impossible to remember things
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May 13, 2020 23:42
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Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now. Only thing I'm worried about is all of the election fuckery that's coming in the wake of what is certain to be a huge spike in C19. Why do I think that all of a sudden, Donald will suddenly go into a taking this disease seriously mode, pull every string in his hand to gently caress with November and then, if he loses, point to all of all that same fuckery to drag the election results through the courts? Then he'll do something insane while half of this forum says "don't worry. He can't legally do that". Then he'll do it anyway, we'll leave it up to the courts he's been stacking for 3 years and it's going to make the 2000 recount look like an episode of Jeopardy. Even if it doesn't work legally, he's got a disturbingly large percentage of the population armed, poor, angry and thinking they're patriot revolutionaries looking for something to use their dry powder on. Trump will gently caress with whatever election apparatus we manage to have in place in 6 months (mail, absentee, name it), muddy the waters whether he's winning or losing, Tweet endlessly about it, do the attrition game and then behave accordingly depending on the outcome. Anyone who thinks he's going down quietly is being naive. He thinks HE IS America and that any evidence to the contrary is Fake News or, even worse, a crime. Democrats are too weak and ineffectual to stop him, as we've seen. Watch. It's going to be a complete fiasco with upwards of 200,000 dead by then. That's my prediction anyway.
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May 14, 2020 01:03
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That's why he's trying to desperately float the idea of postponing the election. Probably indefinitely.
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May 14, 2020 01:06
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what’s gunna happen irl is trump will threaten to contest the election in order to cut a deal where he leaves quickly in exchange for some blanket immunity for all his shady financial poo poo, then he’ll spend his remaining years milking chuds for myppillow money on trump tv while setting up trump jr to run in 2028 on a platform of “the 2020 election was rigged by obama and hillary to shut down Qanon”
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May 14, 2020 01:15
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Dixie Cretin Seaman posted:what’s gunna happen irl is trump will threaten to contest the election in order to cut a deal where he leaves quickly in exchange for some blanket immunity for all his shady financial poo poo, then he’ll spend his remaining years milking chuds for myppillow money on trump tv while setting up trump jr to run in 2028 on a platform of “the 2020 election was rigged by obama and hillary to shut down Qanon” And Biden will 1000% agree.
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May 14, 2020 01:19
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Throatwarbler posted:I thought 70% of whites generally just voted republican at every election regardless of anything. Like Trump lost a chunk of white women since he was a literal rapist of white women running against a white woman, but gained a huge chunk of white men so it was a wash at the end. Obama won because he turned out the minority vote. Trump won every single white demographic in 2016 except young college educated suburban women. Every single one.
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May 14, 2020 01:22
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biden polling a narrow win when he's basically running unopposed doesn't mean anything. trump might still lose, but that will be after he unleashes his catty bitch mode and spends a few months dunking on biden 24/7.
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May 14, 2020 01:30
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Trump, brought to you by uneducated white people
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May 14, 2020 01:32
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euphronius posted:imho Biden would have to be up 80-20 rn with 65+ to have any hope of getting close dont worry they'll be dead at this rate.
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May 14, 2020 01:37
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gimme the GOD drat candy posted:biden polling a narrow win when he's basically running unopposed doesn't mean anything. trump might still lose, but that will be after he unleashes his catty bitch mode and spends a few months dunking on biden 24/7. Biden isn’t even actively running. He’s basically all but vanished from the public eye. Once he has to start campaigning lots of people will remember that he’s a lying, short tempered, demetia addled rapist and his numbers will drop. He could still win, but his current numbers are all but meaningless.
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May 14, 2020 01:38
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YOLOsubmarine posted:
I thought you were talking about Trump the smooth brain, Adderall riddled, add as gently caress, liar that loves blond kiddies sit in his lap
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May 14, 2020 01:43
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EVIL Gibson posted:I thought you were talking about Trump the smooth brain, Adderall riddled, add as gently caress, liar that loves blond kiddies sit in his lap those are strengths for Trump's base
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May 14, 2020 01:44
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BiggerBoat posted:Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now.  
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May 14, 2020 01:45
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This country is dead, just drown this bitch already
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May 14, 2020 01:46
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ElGroucho posted:This country is dead, just drown this bitch already Rome didn't fall in a day
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May 14, 2020 01:47
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BiggerBoat posted:Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1260590950289727490
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May 14, 2020 01:47
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BiggerBoat posted:Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now. If he loses, Trump will run a virtual government in exile from OANN or whatever media company he ends up a figurehead for. That's going to be absolutely bananas.
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May 14, 2020 02:02
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The republicans can just decide biden is illegitimate and throw out his election.
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May 14, 2020 02:07
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He IS America.
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May 14, 2020 02:07
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BiggerBoat posted:Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now. Maybe but Trump is also very lazy and this would take effort
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May 14, 2020 02:07
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Epic High Five posted:minority and youth yeah, it's why the Dems have eaten poo poo every time they've run somebody trying desperately to bring aboard the suburban white center right cohort Bill Clinton never ran as a left populist.. like his whole campaign was the start of the move towards the right/center...
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May 14, 2020 02:08
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Strong Sauce posted:Bill Clinton never ran as a left populist.. like his whole campaign was the start of the move towards the right/center... he used a lot of fiery pro-labor rhetoric and inequality and the like in his 92 campaign, was a total fraud but he did because he knew the New Deal people weren't quite weak enough that he could be explicit in his contempt for them like the Third Way people can now it was his 96 campaign where he ran on a platform of mocking labor and telling them they're lazy fuckups who deserve to rot Carter was the start of the move to the right
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May 14, 2020 02:16
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Mr Interweb posted:i'm sorry, are you all unironically seeing those numbers as BAD? Overall Biden is only up by 5 in that CNN poll, 51-46. That's up by 5 despite supposedly having a double-digit lead among conservative old people. It's also down from a 53-42 overall lead in the same poll from last month. Biden is behind in the 35-49 age group and tied in the 50-64 age group, and he's going to do a terrible job turning out the Democratic base of young people and voters of colour among whom he leads while he desperately tries to appeal to old people who will happily tell pollsters they're leaning Biden and then vote straight-ticket Republican in the voting booth.
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May 14, 2020 02:28
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Ah, no worries. I'm sure Biden will flip South Carolina.
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May 14, 2020 02:34
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Epic High Five posted:the last one I know of that polled Latinos specifically was I believe the Emerson one from a few days ago, which had him around 51% - 10% lower than Hillary, who was 10% lower than Obama man thank god the democrats listened to conservative black churchgoers in deep-red states instead of an increasingly growing segment of the country that has been actively targeted by immigration authorities at the behest of both parties
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May 14, 2020 02:34
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Shipon posted:man thank god the democrats listened to conservative black churchgoers in deep-red states instead of an increasingly growing segment of the country that has been actively targeted by immigration authorities at the behest of both parties out of curiosity, do you have a proposed solution here? “black southerners picked the wrong candidate so ......???”
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May 14, 2020 03:16
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raminasi posted:out of curiosity, do you have a proposed solution here? “black southerners picked the wrong candidate so ......???” Black southerners didn't pick the wrong candidate. Their votes only accounted for a tiny fraction of the total number of delegates. The problem is, the democrats decided to throw their full weight behind the person those southern states (or really just one southern state) voted for, tipping the balance entirely.
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May 14, 2020 03:23
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Its not really a numbers thing. Because they have a real sense of solidarity and a functioning old-school political machine, the southern black dems function as leadership/kingmakers for the rest of the wishy-washy directionless moderate dem voters.
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May 14, 2020 03:42
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One More Fat Nerd posted:Its not really a numbers thing. Because they have a real sense of solidarity and a functioning old-school political machine, the southern black dems function as leadership/kingmakers for the rest of the wishy-washy directionless moderate dem voters. I don't think that's true, the dem establishment was desperate to anoint anyone who wasn't Bernie, they spent like 60 days denying he was the front runner and coming up with any narrative about how anyone who wants to gently caress the poor to help the rich was the democrat frontrunner. They got a narrative that took hold with Biden in SC, and they went with that, but they ran endless narratives before that.
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May 14, 2020 04:15
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BiggerBoat posted:Before a mod comes in and shuts this conversation down, 538 shows Biden up across the board in Michigan, PA and Florida. Flipping just ONE of those states gets rid of Donald and whatever the gently caress it is I've been watching and listening to for 3.5 years so "whoopdie loving do" for president Biden. Sucks, but this is where we are. Trump isn't going to flip one single state he lost in 2016 and needs to hold ALL of the swing states he won by very narrow margins 3.5 years ago. He can't lose ONE and he's polling behind in all 3 right now. Biden isn’t going to win Michigan Florida or Pa
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May 14, 2020 04:16
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BigDave posted:And Biden will 1000% agree. well duh, who do u think was offering the immunity in my prediction
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May 14, 2020 04:25
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Dixie Cretin Seaman posted:well duh, who do u think was offering the immunity in my prediction Gerald Ford?
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May 14, 2020 04:36
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euphronius posted:Biden isn’t going to win Michigan Florida or Pa Nor ohio
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May 14, 2020 06:02
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Can we please confine the Biden bad to any of the like 10 threads in C-Spam and D&D where it is appropriate. This thread is for schadenfreude about Trump voters being hurt by Trump's policies.
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May 14, 2020 07:01
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