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Who will you vote for in 2020? This poll is closed. |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Biden |
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425 | 18.06% |
| Trump |
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105 | 4.46% |
| whoever the Green Party runs |
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307 | 13.05% |
| GOOGLE RON PAUL |
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151 | 6.42% |
| Bernie Sanders |
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346 | 14.70% |
| Stalin |
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246 | 10.45% |
| Satan |
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300 | 12.75% |
| Nobody |
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202 | 8.58% |
| Jess Scarane |
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110 | 4.67% |
| mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party |
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61 | 2.59% |
| Dick Nixon |
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100 | 4.25% |
| Total: | 2089 votes | ||
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i think the shart stuff isn't so much people thinking that it's a killing blow so much as people justifying their no-joe stance through laughing at how decrepit biden's become
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Jun 4, 2020 18:38
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Honestly "poo poo himself" became shorthand for a candidate's age disqualifying them which is fine. But in reality, a candidate making GBS threads themselves is fine. Like I was hoping for 1 of 2 candidates over 70, and I don't really care if one of them needs to wear a diaper if their policies are good. And debating if Biden farted or shat when America burns seems silly.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:38
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V. Illych L. posted:i think the shart stuff isn't so much people thinking that it's a killing blow so much as people justifying their no-joe stance through laughing at how decrepit biden's become Right but just make it about some legitimately bad thing he did. He is old as gently caress and seems old as gently caress but Trump's also old as gently caress. Two men old as gently caress.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:39
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Pick posted:Right but just make it about some legitimately bad thing he did. idk what to say poop is funny
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Jun 4, 2020 18:40
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I would have preferred a good young candidate who can understand the struggles faced by Millenials, who are hosed, and Zoomers, who are turbo hosed, but the best they gave us was Buttigieg, who is basically a Boomer wearing a Millenial skinsuit.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:43
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My #1 issue with him was lack of experience. It won't be cool when Dems do it either. Obama was fine (!!!!) but he'd have been much better if he'd had more experience also.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:48
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buttigieg is a management consultant and those people are weird cannibal freaks at the best of times
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Jun 4, 2020 18:49
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To be fair, I literally believe you have to have some degree of mental illness to want to be a major politician. That is in no way an exaggeration. I literally believe that is true.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:52
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https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1268611817095348224
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Jun 4, 2020 19:41
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They literally got a warning that someone tried to access their mail account and now they're playing it up like the Chinese state is working against them. loving gross.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:47
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punishedkissinger posted:They literally got a warning that someone tried to access their mail account and now they're playing it up like the Chinese state is working against them. loving gross. The statement does not read that way, at all.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:48
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punishedkissinger posted:They literally got a warning that someone tried to access their mail account and now they're playing it up like the Chinese state is working against them. loving gross. wrong, google specifically warns people about nation-state hacking attempts
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Jun 4, 2020 19:53
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also, you don't need to be hacking emails to interfere with the election. we hack everything we can get our hands on in foreign countries, but not (usually) to weigh in on one side of an election or the other. you would absolutely expect the chinese government to be trying to hack biden's emails to get as much data on a potential new government's policies as possible. that sort of thing is basically why spy agencies exist, and his campaign staff is likely the softest target for collecting that sort of info.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:58
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V. Illych L. posted:it is trivially easy to make a non-violent protest violent unless the protesters are very disciplined, which requires organisation - and these protests aren't very tightly organised. at the moment public sympathy is with the protests, but that can change very quickly indeed. if this goes on for a week or two more and then peters out, it's good for biden. if it doesn't, he's got a real problem on his hands that he's not going to be able to solve easily I think the opposite is true. If rioting dissipates, Trump can easily run on a law and order platform. He will take credit for suppressing the unrest, and have a new scape goat to rally against. If the demonstrations continue, Trump loses the only thing he has going for him: The illusion of strength. People vote for him because they love the "strong man" position. They think he can wrestle any problem to the ground. That narrative does not play well if he can't control the populace. Imagine a position so fragile that you spend 10$ buying a mod an avatar for something as even handed as THIS.
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Jun 4, 2020 19:59
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Timeless Appeal posted:Honestly "poo poo himself" became shorthand for a candidate's age disqualifying them which is fine. But in reality, a candidate making GBS threads themselves is fine. Like I was hoping for 1 of 2 candidates over 70, and I don't really care if one of them needs to wear a diaper if their policies are good. And debating if Biden farted or shat when America burns seems silly. The debate is only silly because it was very clearly a poo poo.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:01
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think the opposite is true. If rioting dissipates, Trump can easily run on a law and order platform. He will take credit for suppressing the unrest, and have a new scape goat to rally against. If the demonstrations continue, Trump loses the only thing he has going for him: The illusion of strength. People vote for him because they love the "strong man" position. They think he can wrestle any problem to the ground. That narrative does not play well if he can't control the populace. nah, you're missing how the "law and order" thing works. people who just want black people repressed are already voting for trump. that's not the issue. the issue is someone who doesn't really like trump (or nixon, or whoever is running this scam) but has been made to feel afraid and believes that trump, or nixon, or whoever, is going to make them no longer feel afraid. if there are no protestors, there is nobody to scare people into voting for trump. but if he can make all the protests violent affairs that make everyone around worried, he can promise that he will restore order. the problem, of course, is that it's a little harder to pull off this scam when the protests happen on your watch because, like you're sort of getting at, either you made it go away and i no longer worry about it, or you completely failed to make them go away and so why would i vote for you to make them go away.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:03
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The bombs could be dropping but if Trump had just ripped a wet one on camera with visual confirmation from the backside consisting of either increased moisture or spatial displacement then getting to the bunker is going to have to come second.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:06
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evilweasel posted:the problem, of course, is that it's a little harder to pull off this scam when the protests happen on your watch because, like you're sort of getting at, either you made it go away and i no longer worry about it, or you completely failed to make them go away and so why would i vote for you to make them go away. We tend to assume that voters will always go to the polls. However, I think a large portion of this is voter turnout. If Trump is visibly unable to control the riots, then those who would normally support him might become disenchanted and stay home. Of course, a certain amount of that is already going to to happen to Biden regardless, so it would really be a question of who is more alienating to their own voter base.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:11
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yeah this is why i'm saying it's potentially bad for biden rather than good for trump. trump's clearly positioning himself for a crackdown and seizing that political territory if this goes on for a while, both candidates will have to pick a side. that's no problem for trump, he's genuinely been very clear on this issue, but it's potentially a big problem for biden because he really wants both sides of the divide (black people and the suburbians, who are presently expressing sympathy but i 100% promise that this is a temporary condition)
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Jun 4, 2020 20:14
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people's political memories aren't that long, the guys who want blood are going to be happy to get blood, they're not going to resent the delay too much
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Jun 4, 2020 20:16
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V. Illych L. posted:yeah this is why i'm saying it's potentially bad for biden rather than good for trump. trump's clearly positioning himself for a crackdown and seizing that political territory the polling in favor of the protests is slightly more favorable to the protests than the current biden-trump polling (which is a huge biden lead) this sort of thing was definitely a big fear of his campaign - race issues cropping up again in a way that polarized the "white working class" to trump - but under the current circumstance basically everyone who isn't a trump die-hard is for the protestors, in a way that seems really historically unprecedented. that would have to change before this becomes a problem, as opposed to a benefit, to biden. which is why biden already picked a side, with the protesters, and someone posted the police unions already whining about it.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:17
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evilweasel posted:the polling in favor of the protests is slightly more favorable to the protests than the current biden-trump polling (which is a huge biden lead) Biden seems like he's trying to thread the needle between both sides, hence his "shoot them in the leg" stance.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:21
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biden's hedging like all hell, he's held a speech and proposed a shoot-to-wound policy as far as i've heard give it two months of increasingly desperate riots and you'll see those polls change and the biden campaign knows it
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Jun 4, 2020 20:23
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V. Illych L. posted:biden's hedging like all hell, he's held a speech and proposed a shoot-to-wound policy as far as i've heard I don't think Biden has yielded to public opinion on literally anything. I see no reason why he would now.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:24
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Cpt_Obvious posted:We tend to assume that voters will always go to the polls. However, I think a large portion of this is voter turnout. If Trump is visibly unable to control the riots, then those who would normally support him might become disenchanted and stay home. Of course, a certain amount of that is already going to to happen to Biden regardless, so it would really be a question of who is more alienating to their own voter base. Trump supporters are way more zealous in their belief that they are "saving" the country from the bogeymen of equal rights, black people existing, and the gays being allowed to order cakes. They will crawl over broken glass in a way that liberals can only wish their milquetoast supporters would. Especially with a wholly uninspiring candidate like Biden, whose entire campaign hinges on the message of "Get a load of the other guy, amirite?" Plus, as has been clearly established, armed groups of white people can go anywhere and do anything they want as long as they're wearing a red ballcap or a Confederate flag. You'll see a whole lot of performative "freedom squads" standing by to "protect" the polling places in predominantly white neighborhoods* *Scare off black voters TLDR: None of this is going to hurt Trump as much as people are hoping.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:40
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the_steve posted:Trump supporters are way more zealous in their belief that they are "saving" the country from the bogeymen of equal rights, black people existing, and the gays being allowed to order cakes. I dunno, it could hurt him by invigorating Democratic voters. Again, we so deep into the  that any and all predictions are meaningless at this point.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:51
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biden has very high unfavourables and those are only going to keep going up unless he suddenly learns to speak again, and *trump is in power in a state of exception and is going to exploit that*. turnout for biden is not going to be historically high between his crappiness as a candidate and trumpish voter suppression measures and hoping for it is not likely to pan out
V. Illych L. fucked around with this message at 20:59 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 20:55
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Bear in mind, a lot of the more Cool places have democratic trifectas or at least significant dem leadership. Screwups by other dems may have electoral college rammifications.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:56
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V. Illych L. posted:biden has very high unfavourables and those are only going to keep going up unless he suddenly learns to speak again, and *trump is in power in a state of exception and is going to exploit that*. turnout for biden is not going to be historically high between his crappiness as a candidate and trumpish voter suppression measures and hoping for it is not likely to pan out No, he doesn't. His net favorability rating is a hell of a lot better than Clinton was. He's generally regarded by voters with more of a shrug and a "he's OK, I guess" feeling rather than with active dislike. Sometimes his average is a point or two positive, sometimes a point or two negative. His net favorability has been pretty steadily even all year and hasn't really moved; he is the generic Democrat. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html By contrast, Trump has been solidly negative double-digits from mid-2017 to today with a few exceptions, and Hillary Clinton was pretty steadily net negative double digits for all of 2016 through her defeat. Looking deeper, every leader in congress from both parties is worse than -10 except Bernie. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html Rigel fucked around with this message at 21:13 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 21:10
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Rigel posted:No, he doesn't. His net favorability rating is a hell of a lot better than Clinton was. He's generally regarded by voters with more of a shrug and a "he's OK, I guess" feeling rather than with active dislike. Sometimes his average is a point or two positive, sometimes a point or two negative. His net favorability has been pretty steadily even all year and hasn't really moved; he is the generic Democrat. https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268554350240108551 Also, from your own source, Biden's favorability:
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Jun 4, 2020 21:14
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Cpt_Obvious posted:https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1268554350240108551 yeah, ok. That does not conflict with my post at all. edit: your post shows his average at -1.5
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Jun 4, 2020 21:17
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I don't think Biden has yielded to public opinion on literally anything. I see no reason why he would now. His handlers could dope him to the gills, hand him a script and a mic, and then keep him away from the cameras for a bit until he forgets what he talked about. It usually works with trump, and would probably work even better with biden because he doesn't post on twitter. V. Illych L. posted:biden has very high unfavourables and those are only going to keep going up unless he suddenly learns to speak again, and *trump is in power in a state of exception and is going to exploit that*. turnout for biden is not going to be historically high between his crappiness as a candidate and trumpish voter suppression measures and hoping for it is not likely to pan out Biden being who he is, I feel like it's only barely possible he can win under his own power. If joe becomes president, its because trump sucked and lost and just handed the presidency over to joe, because he's not trump. And to be perfectly fair, trump is sprinting away from the finish line as quickly as he possibly can. I guess we'll see if he can make it past biden's moldering corpse before November.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:18
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Rigel posted:yeah, ok. That does not conflict with my post at all. Sorry, I accidentally posted instead of changing the upload.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:25
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If Biden wins it's because he's not Trump, but this is assumed to be fairly standard when it comes to re-election of sitting presidents.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:32
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If I wanted Biden to win, I would be more worried about extended protests/riots than them ending soon. You have to realize that in this hell world that we live in, we always end up with the worst outcome. You might assume Trump's base would become disillusioned with him the longer he fails to contain the protests. Instead, chuds are going to be more enthusiastic to vote Republican the closer to November the protests continue (and especially with more the protests accomplish). Conversely, I can imagine protracted protests hurting enthusiasm for Biden. As the protests go on, they are clear examples of how ineffectual voting for Democrats is. After all, virtually every city that's cracking down the hardest is controlled by Democrats, and you have Democratic mayors in the media every night urging the protesters to submit. The longer there are protests, the more likely Biden's crime bill gets brought into the mainstream narrative, as well.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:48
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Euphoriaphone posted:You have to realize that in this hell world that we live in, we always end up with the worst outcome. You might assume Trump's base would become disillusioned with him the longer he fails to contain the protests. Instead, chuds are going to be more enthusiastic to vote Republican the closer to November the protests continue (and especially with more the protests accomplish). We're not afraid of the red hats. There is no plausible future where they are depressed and stay home. They were fired up in 2018 and lost badly, because there's not enough of them to beat the Dems when they do turn out.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:54
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How were they fired up in 2018? Kavanaugh was already confirmed a month before the election, and there was no other pressing casus belli in the right wing sphere urging Republican turnout (that I can remember at least). While Democrats were urged to vote as a show of force to condemn Trump. It's debatable how encouraged Democratic turnout will be this year relative to 2018, but it's undeniable that Trump's base will be more fired up than the midterms.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:02
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Euphoriaphone posted:How were they fired up in 2018? Kavanaugh was already confirmed a month before the election, and there was no other pressing casus belli in the right wing sphere urging Republican turnout (that I can remember at least). While Democrats were urged to vote as a show of force to condemn Trump. We know they were fired up in 2018, due to turnout data and exit polling. They were swamped despite their enthusiasm. As always in national elections, when Dems vote, Dems win. Its been this way for a while.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:09
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Euphoriaphone posted:How were they fired up in 2018? Kavanaugh was already confirmed a month before the election, and there was no other pressing casus belli in the right wing sphere urging Republican turnout (that I can remember at least). While Democrats were urged to vote as a show of force to condemn Trump. remember "the caravan"? and turnout was historically high across the board. republicans saw record turnout, but they were outvoted by record democratic turnout
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Jun 4, 2020 22:09
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Rigel posted:We know they were fired up in 2018, due to turnout data and exit polling. They were swamped despite their enthusiasm. As always in national elections, when Dems vote, Dems win. Its been this way for a while. They were less "fired up" in 2018 than Dem voters were. That does not seem like it will be the case in 2020.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:13
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