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https://mobile.twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1275886622437969922
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Jun 25, 2020 00:05
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 contested gop convention pls
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Jun 25, 2020 00:31
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Petey posted:
yes. . . yes!!! although i don't think the loss of any more conservative "intellectuals" could hurt trump. all that's ever mattered has been his popular appeal
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Jun 25, 2020 00:39
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Petey posted:
Nah, imo from the looks of it the convention and ensuing GE campaign will be a repeat of 2016: An extremely unenthusiastic establishment that's expecting to lose, and a clown car of true believers and grifters that take up most of the convention speaking slots and surrogate roles. Some establishment figures will start breaking from Trump once they're past their primaries, but it's far too late for a contested convention to truly be an option.
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Jun 25, 2020 00:49
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Squalid posted:Wow this thread sounds mighty optimistic Everyone has PTSD and is overreacting the other direction this election because somehow accepting polls as they currently are means you are being “complacent” as if optimism causes turnout to decrease But the polls are good. They’re very good. We’re allowed to day dream about what a Biden +10 election looks like and brother, it’s good.
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Jun 25, 2020 01:36
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Gonna bring up right now that about this time 4 years ago Hillary was putting out these kinds of numbers against Trump
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Jun 25, 2020 01:37
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Feldegast42 posted:Gonna bring up right now that about this time 4 years ago Hillary was putting out these kinds of numbers against Trump not exactly but she DID have similar approve/disapprove numbers and similar 'already made up my mind' numbers to go with them, and boy were they not good!
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Jun 25, 2020 01:40
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sexpig by night posted:not exactly but she DID have similar approve/disapprove numbers and similar 'already made up my mind' numbers to go with them, and boy were they not good! quote:Polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics found that 45% of those surveyed had a favorable view of Biden and 46% had an unfavorable view. By contrast, Clinton was already a far more polarizing figure at this stage of the 2016 campaign, viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 55%. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-22/joe-biden-is-not-hillary-clinton-trump-reelection Clinton had much higher unfavorables.
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Jun 25, 2020 01:45
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sexpig by night posted:not exactly but she DID have similar approve/disapprove numbers and similar 'already made up my mind' numbers to go with them, and boy were they not good! Hillary was never hitting 50% and the biggest her lead ever got in the poll aggregators was 7
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Jun 25, 2020 01:46
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Charlz Guybon posted:Hillary was never hitting 50% and the biggest her lead ever got in the poll aggregators was 7 Also quote:A close analysis of national polling in 2016 and 2020 based on data compiled by RealClearPolitics indicates that Biden’s lead over Trump has been only slightly larger than Clinton’s lead over Trump between January and early June. However, Biden’s lead has been much more consistent. The data for both years are summarized in Tables 1 and 2. Table 1 shows the aggregate data for Clinton vs. Trump both through mid-June of 2016 and also for the entire election year, as well as Biden vs. Trump for 2020 so far; Table 2 shows the monthly average Democratic lead for the 2016 election year as well as 2020 so far.  http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/comparing-national-polls-in-2016-and-2020/
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Jun 25, 2020 01:49
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Charlz Guybon posted:Hillary was never hitting 50% and the biggest her lead ever got in the poll aggregators was 7 also there was much much bigger pool of undecideds and such. paternity suitor posted:Everyone has PTSD and is overreacting the other direction this election because somehow accepting polls as they currently are means you are being “complacent” as if optimism causes turnout to decrease idk if it will be +10 biden by October but i can hope.
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Jun 25, 2020 01:52
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Feldegast42 posted:Gonna bring up right now that about this time 4 years ago Hillary was putting out these kinds of numbers against Trump Not at all, Biden is leading so much more. General Election: Trump vs. Clinton 2016 General Election: Trump vs. Biden 2020
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Jun 25, 2020 01:54
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Also Biden is at around 51% while Hillary only topped out at like 46%
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Jun 25, 2020 02:04
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Also, come November there are going to be tens of millions of unemployed people who will have tons of time to vote, and having been unemployed for 6 months plus are not likely to be enthused with the incumbent.
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Jun 25, 2020 02:06
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Honestly the biggest difference to point to is how voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates. Biden is 46-14 (other earlier polls had 60-10). Trump won that crew 47-30 in 2016. The most tepid possible claim of strength seems fitting for the candidate, frankly.
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Jun 25, 2020 02:13
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Feldegast42 posted:Gonna bring up right now that about this time 4 years ago Hillary was putting out these kinds of numbers against Trump Sorry but not even close. Hillary’s unfavorable rating was always dog poo poo, her numbers were inconsistent, and Biden has been consistent to an unheard of level. Critically there’s a big difference between 47-37 +10 and 51-41 +10. Trump not only has to persuade nearly every undecided but he must also persuade some Biden voters. Crossing 50 is a big deal
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Jun 25, 2020 02:21
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Dapper_Swindler posted:also there was much much bigger pool of undecideds and such. I don’t know they will either but that doesn’t change that being +10 in June is a great place to be. Every day that goes by is another day Trump is not making up the difference, and since it took Biden about three months to get here from +5 or so, you’d have to imagine a reversion to the mean back would take three months as well. So if Biden could actually kick it up a little higher over the next month or two, which seems very possible given what’s going on with COVID again, Trump might just be out of time. And all of that ignores that we’re not in an environment we’re hiding out as the incumbent is a good look. And when Trump is active he shits himself.
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Jun 25, 2020 02:30
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How can you have 2016 PTSD and not remember the constant "phew! .... AUGHHH .... phew!.... AUGHHH" rollercoaster as the polls kept showing Hillary break away and then have Trump come rushing back up all over again each time. Nothing even remotely like that has been happening this entire cycle.
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Jun 25, 2020 03:17
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What would be useful at this point is a plot over time Clinton's +y vs Biden's +y with time to election day on the x-axis. It would help us all visualize the differences in lead and volatility between '16 and '20.
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Jun 25, 2020 03:19
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Wrong thread lol
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Jun 25, 2020 03:22
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Epinephrine posted:What would be useful at this point is a plot over time Clinton's +y vs Biden's +y with time to election day on the x-axis. It would help us all visualize the differences in lead and volatility between '16 and '20. See my earlier post. Maybe someone could use GIMP to overlay the RCP Data?
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Jun 25, 2020 03:32
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Gabriel S. posted:See my earlier post. Maybe someone could use GIMP to overlay the RCP Data? Looking at the data, GIMPing would still need to do the y-axis adjustment, which would be difficult. Ideally we could scrape the data behind the charts and replot (or, hello person working for 538 or related firm, push out a product that does just that!)
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Jun 25, 2020 04:19
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1276017394398498816
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Jun 25, 2020 06:03
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Feldegast42 posted:Gonna bring up right now that about this time 4 years ago Hillary was putting out these kinds of numbers against Trump Biden is not Hillary.
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Jun 25, 2020 06:18
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I decided to look at RCP polls to see if Trump has ever won one. Obviously these are national but still...4 polls he won He has not won a national poll since 2/16/20
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Jun 25, 2020 06:21
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Reasons why this year is not like 2016:
Reasons to temper the optimism:
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Jun 25, 2020 08:11
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1275944385369251840 https://twitter.com/AddictStudios1/status/1275965570261774336
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Jun 25, 2020 08:48
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The second part of the Siena/Upshot polls on NYT are out: https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1276082086869426176
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Jun 25, 2020 10:23
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Jesus Christ
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Jun 25, 2020 10:55
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canepazzo posted:The second part of the Siena/Upshot polls on NYT are out: That's insanely bad for Trump, obviously. He could still pull it back I think, if he just shut the gently caress up and stick to reading out teleprompter platitudes, but clearly he's not gonna do that. The only things that might have a chance of flipping the race right now are 1) Miracle vaccine/treatment breakthrough followed by economic rebound through November. Unlikely. 2) Some kind of major Biden scandal or fuckup. In the absence of any further credible accusers coming forward, I don't see what that could be. Biden is a known quantity.
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Jun 25, 2020 11:04
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canepazzo posted:The second part of the Siena/Upshot polls on NYT are out: Wow
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Jun 25, 2020 11:09
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https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=false&annotations=false&zoomIn=false Biden has -14 favorability among voters in general ( he has a rating of -26 among voters under 34) This is a B rated poll called Civics.
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Jun 25, 2020 11:43
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Fox News, a much better pollster than Civiqs, had Biden with a much higher favorability rating.
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Jun 25, 2020 11:54
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PawParole posted:https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_joe_biden?uncertainty=false&annotations=false&zoomIn=false Trump has -36 with that same age group and -12 overall on that poll. What's your point?
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Jun 25, 2020 12:23
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There appears to be some disagreement among polls about whether Biden has a positive favorability or not. I think he was something like +10 in the NYT poll. Also those state polls are loving insane. I wish they had polled Ohio, Iowa, and Texas too.
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Jun 25, 2020 12:26
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canepazzo posted:The second part of the Siena/Upshot polls on NYT are out: There's the high quality PA poll I've been waiting for! North Carolina is the biggest shock to me. That is just enormous, and Biden is close to 50 there too. To me that's the biggest deal, because Democrats need that Senate seat. While Biden is up less in Arizona, Kelly is going to win that seat regardless, he's too good of a candidate. Cunningham is running 6 behind Biden and Kelly is running 2 ahead. This is great loving news across the board, wow. Seconding wishing that they polled Iowa and Texas, and I'll add Georgia to the mix as well. The original set of "swing states", depending on how you want to define them, are just not looking like swing states. I'm not talking tipping point states, but just close, purple states. Just for context, Trump is up in Mississippi by the same amount Biden is up in a Pennsylvania.
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Jun 25, 2020 12:57
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Chinese Gordon posted:That's insanely bad for Trump, obviously. He could still pull it back I think, if he just shut the gently caress up and stick to reading out teleprompter platitudes, but clearly he's not gonna do that. The only things that might have a chance of flipping the race right now are 1) Miracle vaccine/treatment breakthrough followed by economic rebound through November. Unlikely. 2) Some kind of major Biden scandal or fuckup. In the absence of any further credible accusers coming forward, I don't see what that could be. Biden is a known quantity. It would have to be a majorly bad scandal, because most of the Biden vote is really just Anti-Trump vote. This is why it's not going to work when they attack Biden. No one is going to be convinced because it's not about Biden, it's about Trump, and in fact they'll probably convince more people to go the other way by crossing a line at some point.
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Jun 25, 2020 13:00
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Look at this https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1276098755599761408 How do you win when 55% of the electorate won’t even think about voting for you?
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Jun 25, 2020 13:02
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Look at this Turnout.
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Jun 25, 2020 13:38
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Consider Florida, which has the highest percentage of undecideds in that poll at 12%. Trump is down by 6% overall and would have to win undecideds 2-1 to break even. Which I suppose is possible, but that just gives you an idea of how unlikely it is.
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Jun 25, 2020 13:39
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