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 so I just woke up
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Oct 2, 2020 12:48
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The only somewhat comparable situation I can find is Mel Carnahan's 2000 MI Senate election victory over incumbent John Ashcroft, where Carnahan, his son, and his campaign manager died in a plane accident 38 days before the election. Carnahan's death improved his polling and seemed to help his wife's campaign (state laws prevented his name from being removed from the ballot, but his wife was treated as the unofficial candidate and was seated by the governor when Carnahan won). However, Pence wouldn't be as sympathetic as Jean Carnahan and Mel was both very popular within the state and ran a very retail politics kind of campaign. So I don't think this is really that comparable. Hmm.
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Oct 2, 2020 13:00
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Blurred posted:I've always thought that when Trump's support amongst his base began to crack, that it'd fall to pieces very quickly. The reason is that support for him seems to be premised mostly on emotional and identarian factors, which are extremely powerful motivators, but which can be difficult to sustain, and which tend to lose their salience very rapidly once doubt begins to set it (much as religious people who begin doubting their faith tend to end up as atheists rather than merely more sketical believers - a single crack in the structure can bring the whole thing down). So this post is really good, but I want to provide some insight offered by some recent experiences with both white boomer social media posts, and in person My in laws who are very typical white boomers up until last Sunday believed Trump was a loud brash idiot, but he knew what he was doing with money "because of the economy" No lie, the tax returns showed white boomers who idolize their Dragonhorde retirement wealth that Trump is worth WAAAY less than they are, and he's loving poor. Combine that with the debate where he came off as his most petulant child on meth, and he shattered a lot of boomer's idealization Trump committed the cardinal sin to white boomers: he's poor
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Oct 2, 2020 13:10
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:
Thanks, keep us posted
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Oct 2, 2020 13:13
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Tibalt posted:The only somewhat comparable situation I can find is Mel Carnahan's 2000 MI Senate election victory over incumbent John Ashcroft, where Carnahan, his son, and his campaign manager died in a plane accident 38 days before the election. Maybe if Carnahan has spent the previous six months talking about how plane crashes aren’t real and seatbelts don’t work and anyone who ever died in a plane clash actually died of a pre-existing condition...
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Oct 2, 2020 13:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:biden won't stop poo poo and this point. he will say some well meaning words and poo poo but thats it. trump will either recover fully. recover but be hosed up and probably die in the next few years or he will die. idk. hope he lives. i want to see him lose. Any chance of this but in English?
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Oct 2, 2020 13:22
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letthereberock posted:Maybe if Carnahan has spent the previous six months talking about how plane crashes aren’t real and seatbelts don’t work and anyone who ever died in a plane clash actually died of a pre-existing condition...
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Oct 2, 2020 13:25
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Tibalt posted:I mean, his son was piloting the plane and Mel had made a big deal about how he was criss-crossing the state to meet voters, so it wasn't like he wasn't contributing to the risk. I'm not sure we can assume that voters won't be sympathetic to Trump and his family, necessarily. I still think that's a really far-fetched theory though. I just wish this whole thing happened with like 3 days to the election so that we could get all the attack ads in quick and not have to deal with the uncertainty of a full month of whatever happens here.
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Oct 2, 2020 13:32
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Failed Imagineer posted:Thanks, keep us posted No need to be hostile. The poo poo going on right now is loving crazy
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Oct 2, 2020 13:48
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https://twitter.com/simonowens/status/1312018766142865411?s=20
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Oct 2, 2020 14:23
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wilderthanmild posted:I really hope this doesn't get flipped around again. If I recall correctly, one of the things Clinton did that contributed to the loss was trying to go run up the score in less likely states like TX and basically took PA/OH/FL/WI for granted. Hillary was a terrible loving candidate with vast reserves of terrible issues that drug her down. However, it's important when looking back at her garbage campaign to not overly discount her terrible strategy. If it weren't for the actual thing that cost her the win, it's quite possible that running up the score would have worked out. Never forget that the thing that truly was the finishing blow that gave us your favorite president was James Comey, the dumbest motherfucker to ever count their chickens before they hatched, telling the world that Hillary was back under investigation. Finally, the endless parade of terrible poo poo that is 2020 has metastasized into Three Stooges Syndrome. We're saved, for at least 3 Scaramuccis. Spiritus Nox posted:Biden's nuts if he suspends his campaign. He doesn't need to tapdance on Trump's grave, sure, he should be cautious about what tone he takes when attacking Trump from here on out, but this is absolutely the time to turn out the base, portray strength and stability where Trump is provably weak, and close the fuckin' deal. John McCain ruined the chance of anyone else suspending their campaign for the foreseeable future. I mean, Trump is a dumb and brain diseased entity, but suspending his campaign runs counter to his preferred rear end in a top hat, cowardly bully persona.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:31
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Biden might not have a choice but to suspend at least his own in person campaigning until he knows for sure he’s not sick. Obviously everything else continues full steam ahead.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:50
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Is there any merit to this tweet? I have a hard time believing Mitch would stop at anything to confirm Amy.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:50
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smoobles posted:Is there any merit to this tweet? I have a hard time believing Mitch would stop at anything to confirm Amy. Yeah I'd wager we'll see a tele-vote from congress confirming her.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:51
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Biden might not have a choice but to suspend at least his own in person campaigning until he knows for sure he’s not sick. Obviously everything else continues full steam ahead. Not doing in person campaigning is the very heart of Joe Biden's inexplicably winning 2020 campaign strategy. smoobles posted:Is there any merit to this tweet? I have a hard time believing Mitch would stop at anything to confirm Amy. Mitch can't loose more than 1 other Senator, and since even Ted Cruz and Rick Scott have self quarantined it's very likely he's down the votes to push through the pick right now. Which is assuming the nominee doesn't quarantine herself, stalling the train all on it's own. Of course this could also be the thing that finally gets remote voting inserted into the rules.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:54
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hard to know but it seems possible that Trump was positive and contagious when he debated Biden, based on this timeline: https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1312021288894988289
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Oct 2, 2020 14:54
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DandyLion posted:Yeah I'd wager we'll see a tele-vote from congress confirming her. Congress does not do tele-votes at all, and I don't think they are going to change the rules over this. They will vote after the election if they have to.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:55
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Rigel posted:Congress does not do tele-votes at all, and I don't think they are going to change the rules over this. Officially, to change senate rules you gotta first do it in person, and you need 67 votes. Based on this: https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1312026140941398017 They'll probably just wait a few days for everyone to get tested a few times before deciding how to handle.
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Oct 2, 2020 14:58
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evilweasel posted:Officially, to change senate rules you gotta first do it in person, and you need 67 votes. Based on this: That's to fully change the rules. You only need 51 to sustain a clarification of the existing rules that gets you to where you want to be anyway.
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Oct 2, 2020 15:29
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Anyone think this might increase Trump's campaign donations a little? I can see the religious types and the die hards feeling like "he needs out help more than ever!" but maybe not. They like to crowd fund the people see as martyrs in the culture war (like Gay Cake Lady and Rittenhouse) so I've been going back and forth on it.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:00
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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 Is this a big deal?
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Oct 2, 2020 16:07
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 General consensus I've seen appears to be no, a lot of those registrations are coming in places where more dems are already registered.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:09
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As of a few days ago, the Biden campaign actually did start their doorknocking program.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:10
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 Hillary had a ton more registration in 16. Its not good but  it isn't going to decide the election by itself.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:14
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WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW posted:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 No, because Democrats were already enormously up in voter registration these places over the past 4 years. The GOP is just really late in even trying to catch up, which they aren't. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/democrats-have-voter-registration-advantage-four-states-n1238805
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Oct 2, 2020 16:15
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On a campaign strategy note, this takes a substantial amount of wind out of the Republican thing where they mock the dems for being careful
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Oct 2, 2020 16:19
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Daduzi posted:Any chance of this but in English?  don’t be a piece of poo poo to Dapper Swindler, dude
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Oct 2, 2020 16:20
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evilweasel posted:Officially, to change senate rules you gotta first do it in person, and you need 67 votes. Based on this: so uh https://twitter.com/SenMikeLee/status/1312055257992753152 i think the barrett nomination schedule just got thrown off they'll still confirm her in the lame duck but that will be much more of a stick in the eye for voters, making it easier to go the court-packing route
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Oct 2, 2020 16:49
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evilweasel posted:so uh So there's, like, no way a significant chunk of the senate GOP isn't at high risk of being infected, right? Between Trump and now Lee.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:50
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There is too much fearmongering that this is like Larry Hogans cancer. Trump is supposed to get massive sympathy or something for almost purposely contracting the virus he has failed to contain for so many others. All of this in a country that wildly stigmatizes people for conditions remotely within their control. I just don’t see how that is the narrative if the Democrats don’t completely poo poo the bed here and pivot to healthcare and stimulus and controlling virus spread.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:52
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There are literally hundreds of clips of Trump mocking, downplaying, and outright denying the reality of COVID-19 for months. Anybody who thinks he's going to get an ounce of sympathy for this besides total morons like Chris Cillizza is deluding themselves.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:54
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exquisite tea posted:There are literally hundreds of clips of Trump mocking, downplaying, and outright denying the reality of COVID-19 for months. Anybody who thinks he's going to get an ounce of sympathy for this besides total morons like Chris Cillizza is deluding themselves. Every news site I've checked today, notably the extremely right-wing NYT, is playing up both Trump's continued denial of the pandemic, and specifically him saying "the pandemic is coming to an end" literally hours before he tested positive. People will not give him sympathy on this.
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Oct 2, 2020 16:55
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Is this still good news as long as Biden doesn't get it, or do we just don't know anymore? I was feeling euphoric after the debate.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:00
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Grouchio posted:Is this still good news as long as Biden doesn't get it, or do we just don't know anymore? I was feeling euphoric after the debate. its good news no matter what as long as biden doesn't die.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:01
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Grouchio posted:Is this still good news as long as Biden doesn't get it, or do we just don't know anymore? I was feeling euphoric after the debate. Biden is in good shape, the only comorbidity he has is being old, and he's been taking this poo poo serious the whole time. He's also not a personality cult, so being sick isn't as bad politically than if it was.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:06
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:its good news no matter what as long as biden doesn't die. Actually, strictly strategically speaking, I think Biden dying would be neutral-to-good, especially if his death can be firmly pinned on Trump. That would only increase anti-Trump sentiment, which as we know is the main factor driving the current large Dem polling lead up and down the ballot. And Harris, while not exactly a committed leftist, is certainly more progressive than Biden. Chinese Gordon fucked around with this message at 17:11 on Oct 2, 2020 |
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Oct 2, 2020 17:08
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also "my opponent was so irresponsible he got me sick instead of taking a disease that has killed 200,000 people seriously" is an ad that writes itself, and is uh, not a good look for Donald Tromp.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:08
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My dad's more concerned that they'd delay the elections because of this.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:14
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Grouchio posted:My dad's more concerned that they'd delay the elections because of this. A delay is impossible without the consent of the House of Representatives, since election day is a written law. The House is not going to delay the election because Trump got hoisted by his own petard.
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Oct 2, 2020 17:14
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https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1312044438429073408?s=19 https://twitter.com/schwartzbCNBC/status/1312060210597564417?s=19
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Oct 2, 2020 17:15
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