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I think journalists in 2020 would absolutely hold on to news stories and release them in time to do the most damage to Trump. In 2016, Trump was this curiosity, who was good for business, but was surely going to be bent to heel by the strength of America’s institutions on the off chance he won. Now that has not proven to be the case, and American democracy does seem to be on the line, they are definitely not being as careless when it comes to matters that could hurt Trump (but are still doing a fairly bad job overall). Even in the debate, there were small things like Wallace stating Biden’s tax plan would raise taxes on those making over 400k, immediately taking away Trump’s ability to attack Biden on raising taxes on the middle class. So many times we have seen that question is asked more generally, framed without a certain cutoff point, giving the GOP a field day to make things up about how people working minimum wage jobs would see their taxes go up. Obviously journalists aren’t sitting around and scheming about how to time their Trump hits, but they are definitely not giving Trump the free run at the WH that they gave him in 2016.
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Oct 5, 2020 04:21
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https://twitter.com/Rob_Flaherty/status/1312955833634951170
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Oct 5, 2020 04:23
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Someone remind me about the internal structural differences that allow them to do those longform trump leak drops while at the same time putting out that garbage?
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Oct 5, 2020 04:26
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Telsa Cola posted:Someone remind me about the internal structural differences that allow them to do those longform trump leak drops while at the same time putting out that garbage? Headline writers are different people than long form investigators.
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Oct 5, 2020 04:27
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the latter are pretty much the only sane and sober people who work in that building
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Oct 5, 2020 04:32
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312959362856615936?s=20 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312958831127867392?s=20 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312936354343522304?s=20 https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312907960440496130?s=20 Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 04:39 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 5, 2020 04:35
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312959362856615936?s=20 Thanks for Number. That's pretty middle-of-the-pack number, which is good to see in the present context.
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Oct 5, 2020 04:37
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BigFactory posted:I thought it was hosed up on Friday that he exposed the HMX crew on marine one. I’ve been inside it before, it’s a tiny space and it has like a 6 man crew at all times. Really? Tell us more. Didn't Hillary only win this district by 3? https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1312961892147695619
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Oct 5, 2020 04:56
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Charlz Guybon posted:Really? Tell us more.
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Oct 5, 2020 05:06
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Nessus posted:Who the gently caress is Pierce? 
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Oct 5, 2020 05:13
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Anyways, this district is rated D+3 by Cook and Hillary won it by 4. Obama by 16 in 2012 and by 14 in 2008. Biden currently up by 19
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Oct 5, 2020 05:19
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Like Hawkeye Pierce? The guy from the Third Street Saints? I never heard of this Pierce guy before.
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Oct 5, 2020 05:20
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Nessus posted:Who the gently caress is Pierce? Brock Pierce - D-list child actor, early dot-com entrepreneur, WoW gold farmer who sold his business to Steve Bannon, cryptocurrency mogul (he helped found Tether, the cryptocurrency that really has a US dollar backing every single unit of their currency, honest, and no you can't see the dollars, and neither can any independent auditors), independent presidential candidate running on a vaguely QAnon-adjacent platform, and friend of Jeffrey Epstein. E: here's an interview that hits some of the high points; poo poo's wild in a drama sense but he is basically just a whiter, possibly-richer Kanye https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-brock-pierce-the-presidential-candidate-with-ties-to-two-pedophiles-who-wants-to-end-human-trafficking quote:In 2000, you left the country with Marc Collins-Rector. Why did you leave? How did you spend those two years abroad? Space Gopher fucked around with this message at 05:30 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 5, 2020 05:22
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Beaten Article/interview about his ties to Epstein https://www.thedailybeast.com/meet-brock-pierce-the-presidential-candidate-with-ties-to-two-pedophiles-who-wants-to-end-human-trafficking Mr Ice Cream Glove fucked around with this message at 05:26 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 5, 2020 05:23
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Riptor posted:He caused one of the funniest mini-stories in the Boston area a few years ago when he asked people in Brookline, where he lives, to drop off their turkey carcasses after thanksgiving, because he loves turkey soup. I lived around the corner from him at the time and gave him mine
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Oct 5, 2020 05:28
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Space Gopher posted:Brock Pierce - D-list child actor, early dot-com entrepreneur, WoW gold farmer who sold his business to Steve Bannon, cryptocurrency mogul (he helped found Tether, the cryptocurrency that really has a US dollar backing every single unit of their currency, honest, and no you can't see the dollars), independent presidential candidate running on a vaguely QAnon-adjacent platform, and friend of Jeffrey Epstein.
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Oct 5, 2020 05:30
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Neo_Crimson posted:So uh NYT supposedly had more to the Trump tax thing right? Are they holding it off because nobody rightly cares about that right now? Reminder: NYT held the Abu Ghraib story until after Bush's reelection. NYT is not your friend.
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Oct 5, 2020 05:33
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NYT's mission is to flex the power of the Fourth Estate, period.
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Oct 5, 2020 05:35
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Why would Biden have a smaller lead against Pence according to yesterday's pollsters?
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Oct 5, 2020 06:16
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There are people who specifically dislike Trump, because of things like his meltdown debate performance, lovely racist tweets, or idiotic publicity stunts, but don't have a strong opinion about his mostly-invisible Vice President.
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Oct 5, 2020 06:23
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Grouchio posted:Why would Biden have a smaller lead against Pence according to yesterday's pollsters? We joke about how Republicans who can't vote for Trump don't really exist, but they do. There are not very many of them, but if Biden faced almost literally anyone else, his lead would be smaller.
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Oct 5, 2020 07:07
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Space Gopher posted:There are people who specifically dislike Trump, because of things like his meltdown debate performance, lovely racist tweets, or idiotic publicity stunts, but don't have a strong opinion about his mostly-invisible Vice President. Lots of people do have strong opinions about Pence, he was obviously a committed culture warrior theocrat before being selected as VP, he was governor of Indiana where he has a record of regressive policies, his record is fairly heinous, right now the main thing to consider is not that he's invisible, its that being VP for 4 years has allowed him to escape further scrutiny or attention. If he does somehow become POTUS before Nov 3rd and the election I don't think it takes long for that attention to resurface.
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Oct 5, 2020 07:14
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Raenir Salazar posted:If he does somehow become POTUS before Nov 3rd and the election I don't think it takes long for that attention to resurface. I would hope/expect part of Biden's campaign that is drafting contingency plans and getting inside polling for Pence v. Biden and Pence v. Harris.
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Oct 5, 2020 07:23
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1312845448697262084?s=20 Hard to tell if it's pure delusion or if he's trying to grift as much money out of his supporters as he can
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Oct 5, 2020 07:40
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yes. Remember, this is a group that makes their own reality. Trump's trying to grift money, but he actually believes this poo poo.
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Oct 5, 2020 07:41
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Pick posted:That's pretty middle-of-the-pack number, which is good to see in the present context. That is firmly in blow out territory (Biden would get well over 300 EC votes) if it holds through into the election due date and Dems will easily get 52 seats in the Senate + increase their majority by a fair amount in the HoR. edit: That is why states like TX are in looking to be a toss up now. Another point or 2 in Biden's favor and TX will lean towards going Dem this time around and you'll start to see jerrymanders in all the red states that were set up in 2010 start to completely collapse in favor of Dems. To the point where the Dems might even get a super majority in both houses of Congress. If you asked anyone who knew anything about politics at the start of the year about that happening they'd of told you that you were insane and that the Dems would be lucky to get a +7 Biden election which would at BEST (Dems were still expected to lose seats in the Senate this election) give them a chance (a slim one at that) at getting 50 votes in the Senate and maybe a few more seats in the HoR. edit2: \\/\/\/\/\/\/yea compared to +14 it'll come off as middle of the pack I guess, I didn't think his post was referencing the other polls though? Could be wrong. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 08:51 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 5, 2020 08:43
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:+10 isn't middle of the pack at all.
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Oct 5, 2020 08:45
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"Middle of the pack" in this context means that usually those polls are somewhere in the average of all other polls, making it a bit less likely for them to be outliers.
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Oct 5, 2020 09:03
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Pretty much looking like the polls moved +3 for Biden this week. And given how stable the race has been, we really are moving into the rear end is falling out of Trump's campaign and a major blowout result. Realistically I cant see Biden's lead growing much further - We're getting into bedrock territory for the GOP.
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Oct 5, 2020 10:37
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Things do look pretty bad for Trump right now, but it remains to be seen whether Biden's advantage is part of a longer trajectory or just reactive. Trump should probably be feeling pretty good that Biden's only gotten ~2 points on him in the national polling rather than it becoming far worse, at least at this point in time. Everything about the last 72 hours has been so erratic and unpredictable that I can't imagine anything settling back down until election day.
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Oct 5, 2020 10:49
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I doubt Trump feels good about anything right now. Biden gaining 2 points is still a big swing in the context of an insanely polarised electorate where the majority of the small remnant of "undecideds" are probably just Trump voters afraid of the backlash
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Oct 5, 2020 10:52
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exquisite tea posted:Things do look pretty bad for Trump right now, but it remains to be seen whether Biden's advantage is part of a longer trajectory or just reactive. Trump should probably be feeling pretty good that Biden's only gotten ~2 points on him in the national polling rather than it becoming far worse, at least at this point in time. Everything about the last 72 hours has been so erratic and unpredictable that I can't imagine anything settling back down until election day. Remember that the race has remained remarkably, *unprecedently* stable at Biden +6-8 for the last 5-6 months despite all the crazy things that have been happening on a daily basis. At this point there's no reason to suspect that anything will markedly shift the needle short of the actual death of one or both candidates.
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Oct 5, 2020 10:58
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exquisite tea posted:Things do look pretty bad for Trump right now, but it remains to be seen whether Biden's advantage is part of a longer trajectory or just reactive. Trump should probably be feeling pretty good that Biden's only gotten ~2 points on him in the national polling rather than it becoming far worse, at least at this point in time. Everything about the last 72 hours has been so erratic and unpredictable that I can't imagine anything settling back down until election day. The main thing Trump's campaign would be worried about it that to halt the momentum and then reverse it will take time they barely have anymore - I'd expect Biden to gain a couple more points before polling settles back to where Trump was already badly losing. Let alone people are voting right now and Trump and plenty of surrogates cant campaign for two weeks at best.
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Oct 5, 2020 12:08
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PC LOAD LETTER posted:That is firmly in blow out territory (Biden would get well over 300 EC votes) if it holds through into the election due date and Dems will easily get 52 seats in the Senate + increase their majority by a fair amount in the HoR. Gerrymandering won’t change anything in the senate unless we’re talking adding or combining states. I don’t know how much polling there is on this, but the hope is these congressional gains for Dems carries over to state houses where it actually matters more, so it’s not guarantee that Dems gain control of state houses while winning congressional seats.
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Oct 5, 2020 12:18
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I'll wait and see what happens at the state level, which tends to lag a few days behind the national trend. If Biden improves his margins in the current battleground states and starts to regularly pull more even in places like TX/IA, that might be representative of a larger overall shift.
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Oct 5, 2020 12:20
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Trump's joy ride yesterday is worth at least +5 for him
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Oct 5, 2020 12:21
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brugroffil posted:Trump's joy ride yesterday is worth at least +5 for him +5 secret service agents infected with covid maybe
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Oct 5, 2020 12:30
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Quorum posted:+5 secret service agents infected with covid maybe
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Oct 5, 2020 12:33
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SpitztheGreat posted:Yeah, there's absolutely no reason to release any of their findings yet. Frankly, damage has already been done to their story because of the poo poo show around Trump right now. They have a killer story here, and it's already been buried. If I were them, I would hold the next release for the next 10 days minimum. Get beyond Trump's COVID story, and then start hammering him again. There is a line of thought that suggests Trump checked himself into Walter Reed and is acting out a charade to distract everyone from his taxes since it was basically the next day and he does things like that. Also, it gives him all the headlines all the time, "his ratings are YUGE!"
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Oct 5, 2020 12:54
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The taxes were pre debate and everyone had already moved on to the next insane story
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