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Cat Mattress posted:Besides the Israeli-made Harop, most of the damage seem to be inflicted by Bayraktar TB2 drones, which Azerbaijan expressed the intent to acquire back in July 2020. Does anything seriously think they could have finished negotiating the contract, acquired the aircraft, and trained to operational level in just a few months? They're Turkish drones operated by Turkish crews. Where is a good website to see which drone destroys what?
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Oct 3, 2020 22:56
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https://twitter.com/aldin_ww/status/1312500249907220481?s=21
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Oct 3, 2020 23:42
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Cat Mattress posted:Besides the Israeli-made Harop, most of the damage seem to be inflicted by Bayraktar TB2 drones, which Azerbaijan expressed the intent to acquire back in July 2020. Does anything seriously think they could have finished negotiating the contract, acquired the aircraft, and trained to operational level in just a few months? They're Turkish drones operated by Turkish crews. Not only that but they took part in the joint drills that took place shortly before this escalation. They just never went home.
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Oct 4, 2020 00:52
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Is there a livemap for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?
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Oct 4, 2020 02:55
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Rip Testes posted:Is there a livemap for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict? https://caucasus.liveuamap.com
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Oct 4, 2020 03:08
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Cat Mattress posted:Besides the Israeli-made Harop, most of the damage seem to be inflicted by Bayraktar TB2 drones, which Azerbaijan expressed the intent to acquire back in July 2020. Does anything seriously think they could have finished negotiating the contract, acquired the aircraft, and trained to operational level in just a few months? They're Turkish drones operated by Turkish crews. A lot of the damage were probably done by loitering munitions that we don't have footage of. Azerbaijan bought a bunch from Israel and even have a manufacturing facility for them.
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Oct 4, 2020 05:36
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Rip Testes posted:Is there a livemap for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict?  
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Oct 4, 2020 05:57
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Randarkman posted:I also think that if push really came to shove and the US withdraws in some way from its European military commitments that Britain, France and Germany (and other west and north European members) would throw the Baltic states and Poland to the wolves without a second's hesitation. I don't think so. Would it be a full out article 5 thing? No. But there are lots of cross nation training and planning going on to make sure that the russians would at least need to try very hard to do something. Who knows if it will be enough though.
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Oct 4, 2020 07:55
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Armenian MoD reporting that they just hit Azeri airfields with strategic weapons
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Oct 4, 2020 08:03
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Vasukhani posted:Armenian MoD reporting that they just hit Azeri airfields with strategic weapons Clarification: https://twitter.com/ArmenianUnified/status/1312650841329934336?s=19 The reports of these strikes come from Infocom's telegram channel, citing Vahram Poghosyan, Arayik's (President of Artsakh) spokesman.
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Oct 4, 2020 08:14
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Randarkman posted:Norway's relationship with Russia and the degree of Russian interest in it is vastly different from what it is as regards Poland, comparing the two isn't really fair. it addresses the point quoted, which is that NATO opposition comes only from a position of privileged distance to the big bad wolf. again, if people would rather be vassals of the yankees than the russians i can sympathise to an extent, but NATO remains the primary institution of american imperialism in europe and must be recognised as such. to whit: gently caress NATO
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Oct 4, 2020 11:27
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I rather doubt that finnish national security would be improved by joining nato, nor would it ever have been. Since it most certainly is the american vassalage system, and becoming a vassal of a rival empire is a Bad Idea tm when you share a border with a nation that has been under siege for the past cnetury
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Oct 4, 2020 15:30
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Vasukhani posted:Armenian MoD reporting that they just hit Azeri airfields with strategic weapons I'm hoping the Armenians use that phrase differently than western nations do
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Oct 4, 2020 16:04
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piL posted:I'm hoping the Armenians use that phrase differently than western nations do Strategic in this case I'm guessing refers to their conventional ballistic missiles.
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Oct 4, 2020 16:59
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The Azeri advance appears to be picking up steam. In Syria we've seen instances where one side or another is allowed to gobble up some territory before someone steps in and says that's enough, despite unresolved continuing issues, so it'll be interesting to see if that's what's going on here, or if Russia just intends to let Armenia lose this one to resolve a longstanding problem in the region. It's not like Armenia would have anywhere else to turn if they got mad at Russia. That said, just letting Turkey run roughshod over Russia's role as arbiter in the Caucasus feels like a loss for Russia (particularly with Turkish propagandists suddenly pushing the line that Azerbaijan is simply another nation of Turks on different clay), so it'll be interesting to see if/when they tell the Azeris to be happy with what gains they've made. Letting Turkey get some of what it wants at Russia's expense on its border is one thing, but letting Turkey extend its footprint into the former Soviet Union like this is a different thing altogether, or you'd expect it to be anyway.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:08 on Oct 4, 2020 |
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Oct 4, 2020 19:06
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piL fucked around with this message at 13:59 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 4, 2020 19:26
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:Strategic in this case I'm guessing refers to their conventional ballistic missiles. That would make sense, though I feel like the clench factor of ballistic missiles im general draws certain international attention that makes even their use normally unlikely.
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Oct 4, 2020 19:27
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piL posted:I'm hoping the Armenians use that phrase differently than western nations do They do not have access to nuclear weapons. A strategic weapon is a weapon meant to have a strategic impact on a conflict. By opposition to tactical weapons that have a tactical impact. It's not so much a question of the nature of the weapon itself, "conventional" or not, but of the effect it has on the battlefield. A long-range missile used to destroy enemy infrastructure far beyond the frontline is a strategic weapon, for example. The same weapon used to destroy a tank brigade is tactical.
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Oct 4, 2020 20:26
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I have no idea wtf should have been done here, but whether this is good or bad, just or unjust (I don't know that a good answer or one that established justice is even possible in this situation), a bunch of people affiliated with ISIS appear to be getting set free by the SDF: https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1312871010484486147 https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1312872856531992577 https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1312876262193598465
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Oct 5, 2020 01:56
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Sinteres posted:The Azeri advance appears to be picking up steam. In Syria we've seen instances where one side or another is allowed to gobble up some territory before someone steps in and says that's enough, despite unresolved continuing issues, so it'll be interesting to see if that's what's going on here, or if Russia just intends to let Armenia lose this one to resolve a longstanding problem in the region. It's not like Armenia would have anywhere else to turn if they got mad at Russia. That said, just letting Turkey run roughshod over Russia's role as arbiter in the Caucasus feels like a loss for Russia (particularly with Turkish propagandists suddenly pushing the line that Azerbaijan is simply another nation of Turks on different clay), so it'll be interesting to see if/when they tell the Azeris to be happy with what gains they've made. Letting Turkey get some of what it wants at Russia's expense on its border is one thing, but letting Turkey extend its footprint into the former Soviet Union like this is a different thing altogether, or you'd expect it to be anyway. it's entirely possible Russia consented to Turkish interference here months ago as part of their negotiations on Syria. Not like anybody involved would say anything.
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Oct 5, 2020 03:41
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The obvious point would be that Russia isn't interested in helping Armenia right now, so as long as Azerbaijan doesn't attack Armenian territory, nothing will happen. Karabakh and allegedly Armenia is shelling all of northern Azerbaijan, but it doesn't seem that Azerbaijan has retaliated inside Armenia at all, including attacking any offensive weapons with standoff missiles or something. Sounds like some sort of deal has been made.
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Oct 5, 2020 09:57
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Personally, I still think it's more likely than not that Azerbaijan doesn't get the whole territory this round. Undoing 30 years of occupation in one month or whatever is a big ask (and allowing Azerbaijan to split the baby now could be part of how we reach a long term settlement if you're super optimistic). I think some sort of status quo bias will prevail given how many international actors have been calling on Azerbaijan to stop. Yeah, Russia's been very quiet so far in terms of saber rattling, but they've been working to align themselves with countries like France to say knock it off, so it could be that they're just trying to get all their ducks lined up to get to play the hero and get some international credit. Plus they obviously don't want to lose relations with Azerbaijan forever over this, so they may even have quietly assented to a brief operation while making it clear that there are limits, who knows. That last bit probably goes too far though.
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Oct 5, 2020 12:33
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Squalid posted:it's entirely possible Russia consented to Turkish interference here months ago as part of their negotiations on Syria. Not like anybody involved would say anything. Doesn't seem like a good move for Russia. The Caucuses is former Russian Empire/USSR territory and right on Russia's doorstep. I doubt they want to encourage other countries to interfere so close to home.
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Oct 5, 2020 13:23
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Pretty good read: https://original.antiwar.com/danny_sjursen/2020/10/01/no-dog-in-the-fight-nagorno-karabakhs-conflict-isnt-about-us-or-russia/
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Oct 5, 2020 13:44
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Looks like the Azeri side isn't necessarily pushing for total victory either. From the livemap: Aliyev stated that the mediators on Karabakh must give guarantees for the "withdrawal of Armenian troops" from the territories for a ceasefire
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Oct 5, 2020 13:56
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Armenia is "temporarily, tactically withdrawing" (lol). However, Armenia having called on Russia for help, I just read that the head of Dagestan has resigned. Possible attack of Russia on Azerbaijan incoming?
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Oct 5, 2020 16:36
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Russia would be way more likely to throw some tripwire forces on the ground to draw a new boundary than they would be to start off by attacking Azerbaijan. Even better if they can get a country like France to join them so they can claim that they're international peacekeepers.
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Oct 5, 2020 16:39
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Sinteres posted:Russia would be way more likely to throw some tripwire forces on the ground to draw a new boundary than they would be to start off by attacking Azerbaijan. Even better if they can get a country like France to join them so they can claim that they're international peacekeepers. Armenia accepting that would be tantamous to complete surrender. Karabakh is mountain territory, so retreat doesnt necessarily mean youre broken in any way, yes?
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Oct 5, 2020 16:55
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Kurnugia posted:Armenia accepting that would be tantamous to complete surrender. Karabakh is mountain territory, so retreat doesnt necessarily mean youre broken in any way, yes? Armenia has no ability to win on its own, so they have to live with whatever Russia decides for them. I don't think the situation is quite this drastic since Armenia's a real country with at least some heavy assets, but rough territory didn't stop Turkey very long from winning in Afrin against the YPG, and given the air superiority we've seen the Azeris and Turks display so far, I don't like Armenia's chances at all.
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Oct 5, 2020 17:07
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Cat Mattress posted:Pretty good read: This is good, thanks. It's been really hard to find any commentator who has a clue what they're talking about here!
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Oct 5, 2020 17:11
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Armenia is "temporarily, tactically withdrawing" (lol). Looks like the Azerbaijanis fell for the feint. MoD just announced a subdivision rushed in after the "retreating" Artsakh forces and were trapped and destroyed.
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Oct 5, 2020 18:03
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Diplomacy seems to be heating up a bit again after a lull during the weekend, but it remains to be seen if this is all advisory or if any of these states intends to do anything about it: During a telephone conversation with the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the US Deputy Secretary of State called for an immediate ceasefire During telephone conversations with the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, Lavrov expressed concern over the fighting in Karabakh and the growing casualties among the civilian population. The Russian Federation, the French Foreign Ministers and the US Secretary of State call on the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to restore an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. So far I think this is the most action taken by any outside power: Canada FM: In line with Canada's robust export control government and the ongoing investigation, I have suspended the relevant export permits to Turkey. Canada calls for measures to be taken immediately to stop the violence and protect civilians OhFunny posted:Looks like the Azerbaijanis fell for the feint. MoD just announced a subdivision rushed in after the "retreating" Artsakh forces and were trapped and destroyed. That's what Armenia's saying, but unless they have some proof I wouldn't get too worked up about it. We have video of drones hitting Armenian patrols, but so far I haven't seen much evidence of successful counterattacks by the Armenians. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:32 on Oct 5, 2020 |
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Oct 5, 2020 19:28
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OhFunny posted:Looks like the Azerbaijanis fell for the feint. MoD just announced a subdivision rushed in after the "retreating" Artsakh forces and were trapped and destroyed. I wonder if we could end up with a yemen-like matchup, where the better equipped aggressor falls apart on the ground offensive against better organized locals.
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Oct 5, 2020 19:41
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Sinteres posted:That's what Armenia's saying, but unless they have some proof I wouldn't get too worked up about it. We have video of drones hitting Armenian patrols, but so far I haven't seen much evidence of successful counterattacks by the Armenians.  Dead bodies and soldiers dying https://www.facebook.com/100009002969045/videos/2606465219663551/ https://twitter.com/ShStepanyan/status/1312756522334683138 https://t.me/infoteka24/7919 https://t.me/infoteka24/7928
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Oct 5, 2020 20:12
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Fair enough. Obviously I can't verify them personally, but unless a fact checker says they're from somewhere else I'll accept that they're valid. I was mostly suspicious because of the weird incident where they claimed one of their planes was shot down by a Turkish jet and then never showed any evidence.
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Oct 5, 2020 20:26
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Sinteres posted:Fair enough. Obviously I can't verify them personally, but unless a fact checker says they're from somewhere else I'll accept that they're valid. I was mostly suspicious because of the weird incident where they claimed one of their planes was shot down by a Turkish jet and then never showed any evidence. https://www.reuters.com/article/arm...t-idUSKBN26L1P1 
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Oct 5, 2020 20:30
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There is no reason to believe it wasn't brought down by an Su-30. Not that really changes anything. The biggest advantage the Azeris have are the Turkish TB-2s anyway.
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Oct 5, 2020 20:34
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Sinteres posted:I don't like Armenia's chances at all. Especially given that Azerbaijan and Turkey are willing to fight them to the last Syrian.
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Oct 5, 2020 21:02
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Sinteres posted:Armenia has no ability to win on its own, so they have to live with whatever Russia decides for them. I don't think the situation is quite this drastic since Armenia's a real country with at least some heavy assets, but rough territory didn't stop Turkey very long from winning in Afrin against the YPG, and given the air superiority we've seen the Azeris and Turks display so far, I don't like Armenia's chances at all. AZ might run out of suicide drones, and at that point AZ basically can't advance on the ground. NK is rougher territory than Afrin, and the AZ military is a joke compared to the Turkish Army. Longer term this could trigger AM to build up it's anti-aircraft capacity, and the stalemate continues. AZ might get some tiny bites of territory out of NK, but overrunning the whole territory would be a gigantic escalation and would probably trigger war involving Turkey and Russia icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Oct 6, 2020 |
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Oct 6, 2020 01:31
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There's one video of Azerbaijan doing the Russian thing where they drive a T90 or T70 into some build up area without any infantry help and promptly lose it to an RPG. So, it doesn't seem like they're an elite army or anything. Progress, according to the livemap, is rather limited. I guess that would be expected. Encircling the region seems to be too much of a task as well. Taking over the whole territory will take months if not years. Most likely, diplomatic pressure will mount and there may be at least one round of cease fire pretty soon. Edit: Alternatively, Azerbaijan may decide to start bombing Armenia proper, in which case everything escalates until Russia steps in.
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Oct 6, 2020 07:26
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