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Marxalot
Dec 24, 2008

Appropriator of
Dan Crenshaw's Eyepatch

KidDynamite posted:

i finally got to see a 3080 in stock and it was for 1299 on amazon. gently caress me.

Yeah I joined that dumb discord with the stock announcement bot and the groyper emotes, and the first message I get was that. The next 3 were about gamestop changing their store page slightly lmao

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DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness
Yeah, the Discord bot's accuracy isn't 100%. You'll also see it pop notices when Amazon slightly edits a card's listing page title, even though they haven't put anything up for sale.

That said, the Discord bot is still the best way to score a card short of running a bot yourself.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

sitting here staring at a 3080 in stock but i can't bring myself to pull the trigger cause the normal price here in japan is the same as scalped prices in the US.... going to wait for availability in the US to sort itself out and have family ship me one.

Control Volume
Dec 31, 2008

I cant wait to buy a 3070 at what im sure will be an insanely smooth launch

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Control Volume posted:

I cant wait to buy a 3070 at what im sure will be an insanely smooth launch

Same :hmmyes:

Zedsdeadbaby
Jun 14, 2008

You have been called out, in the ways of old.
Same but team red

I'm basically like a drug addict drinking the bongwater cos I can't get the dope anywhere

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.
The 7nm talk has me pretty sure I'll wait for refreshes. Hell, same performance at a lower power consumption would honestly be worth the wait for me.

sean10mm
Jun 29, 2005

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World
My current PC sucks now, so waiting weeks is fine, but I'm not postponing anything to 2021 because some hypothetical new poo poo may or may not drop (and just be as much of a cluster gently caress as this launch anyway...)

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

Lockback posted:

The 7nm talk has me pretty sure I'll wait for refreshes. Hell, same performance at a lower power consumption would honestly be worth the wait for me.

There's always another set of cards coming out in a year. A year from now we'll see the 3080 Ti respin, maybe on 7nm, maybe with 16GB VRAM, who knows. A year from that it'll be the 4080. And so on.

Keep whatever card you've got until it's not enough, then buy whatever makes sense. If you're already sitting on a 2080Ti, or don't plan on upgrading off 1080p for a while, waiting for refreshes makes a lot of sense.

Animal
Apr 8, 2003

I would totally keep my 2080 Ti for as long as possible if it wasn’t for its lack of HDMI 2.1

Pivo
Aug 20, 2004


I'm glad I waited to play Metro Exodus until I could play it with raytraced global illumination. It's crazy how good the lighting is, especially at >100fps ;-)

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Are the 20xx cards actually going to crash in price? It looks like a 2070 should be able to handle 1080p+rt in watchdogs and cyberpunk but 2070s are still more expensive than a 3070 will be in 2 weeks. Nevermind that that 3070 is going to outperform a 2080ti which are still like $800

Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

DrDork posted:

There's always another set of cards coming out in a year. A year from now we'll see the 3080 Ti respin, maybe on 7nm, maybe with 16GB VRAM, who knows. A year from that it'll be the 4080. And so on.

Keep whatever card you've got until it's not enough, then buy whatever makes sense. If you're already sitting on a 2080Ti, or don't plan on upgrading off 1080p for a while, waiting for refreshes makes a lot of sense.

Yeah but you'd feel a bit of a mug if you put in a 3080 order now, got it delivered in March, and then in April a respin was launched.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

hobbesmaster posted:

Are the 20xx cards actually going to crash in price? It looks like a 2070 should be able to handle 1080p+rt in watchdogs and cyberpunk but 2070s are still more expensive than a 3070 will be in 2 weeks. Nevermind that that 3070 is going to outperform a 2080ti which are still like $800

I wouldn't say "crash" since that implies it'll happen quickly. I'd say used markets will "depreciate aggressively over the next 3-4 months" is more realistic. Right now you can still sell a 2080Ti for a good chunk because it's so hard to buy a 3080. By the time we get into early 2021 and 3080's are a lot more available, the 3070 is out, and the Radeon 6000's are out as well, it's going to be extremely challenging to convince someone to spend more than $500 on a 2080Ti when they could get better performance from a brand new $500 card.

If you're talking about retail channel cards, you can expect some decent sales around Black Friday. They will won't make a lot of sense in terms of price:performance vs Ampere, though. Like, you're not gonna see a 2080Ti on sale at BestBuy for $500. They'll maybe cut it from $1200 to $999 or something. Old-gen cards almost never actually get priced down far enough to be competitive with new-gen cards. They just stay at awkward prices until they slowly disappear entirely (buybacks from manufacturers, maybe?).

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

Alchenar posted:

Yeah but you'd feel a bit of a mug if you put in a 3080 order now, got it delivered in March, and then in April a respin was launched.

Sure, but April also sounds real early to me, and ordering now and not getting a card for 5 months also sounds incredibly pessimistic (and you're also assuming the respin would be immediately available, instead of also suffering stock issues for months).

If they're tapping out 7nm respins now, that'd suggest they're about a year away from release. The single article suggesting NVidia moving to TSMC also notes TSMC is fully booked 'till mid-2021, suggesting that actual volume production wouldn't be until the second half of the year, which would align better with NVidia's usual ~10 month cadence.

While obviously we'll have to wait to see the full details on RDNA2, so far signs are pointing to another generation where AMD will have to try to compete aggressively on price, rather than just performance (though much closer this time around than with the 500-series). So I don't get the sense that NVidia is super interested in doing a short-stroke generation here.

Mr E
Sep 18, 2007

I have a tracking number from Best Buy as of this morning. So, if Best Buy has the add to cart button still showing at any point just spam that button because it got me a card.

Dilber
Mar 27, 2007

TFLC
(Trophy Feline Lifting Crew)


Pivo posted:

I'm glad I waited to play Metro Exodus until I could play it with raytraced global illumination. It's crazy how good the lighting is, especially at >100fps ;-)

I've been really enjoying it. The biggest issue for me with Metro is the engine itself was unstable until I turned off the nvidia overlay. I thought my OC was unstable, even though it was stable in everything else.

Turns out it's just a buggy as hell game, but it's still SO GOOD.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

DrDork posted:

They just stay at awkward prices until they slowly disappear entirely (buybacks from manufacturers, maybe?).

This is kind of why I was wondering about prices crashing. Do they go on ebay or something so there isn't a "real" price history?

Rollie Fingers
Jul 28, 2002

hobbesmaster posted:

Are the 20xx cards actually going to crash in price? It looks like a 2070 should be able to handle 1080p+rt in watchdogs and cyberpunk but 2070s are still more expensive than a 3070 will be in 2 weeks. Nevermind that that 3070 is going to outperform a 2080ti which are still like $800

In the UK, the day after the 3080 reveal, 2080tis were being listed on gumtree for £500-£600.

Used prices have rocketed back up to summer levels since the 3000 series is effectively vapourware for the rest of this year. You have to lol at the people who sold their 2080tis that early.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

DrDork posted:

There's always another set of cards coming out in a year. A year from now we'll see the 3080 Ti respin, maybe on 7nm, maybe with 16GB VRAM, who knows. A year from that it'll be the 4080. And so on.

Keep whatever card you've got until it's not enough, then buy whatever makes sense. If you're already sitting on a 2080Ti, or don't plan on upgrading off 1080p for a while, waiting for refreshes makes a lot of sense.

Yeah, I have a 2080S that I'm still happy with. The perf delta had me thinking but I'll go on the refresh cycle for a while. Again, lower power/heat would be more exciting to me at this point.



hobbesmaster posted:

This is kind of why I was wondering about prices crashing. Do they go on ebay or something so there isn't a "real" price history?

There's still a market for replacements on certified configs, and lol if you think you'll get 3070s until 2021 so they still have the fact that the 2070s are actually available for sale.

There will be some sales, but they are usually reasonably small quantity and time, which historically have been REALLY good values. So it's not a price crash as much as additional sales to get stock down to levels where the desperate may need them.

hobbesmaster
Jan 28, 2008

Lockback posted:

There's still a market for replacements on certified configs, and lol if you think you'll get 3070s until 2021 so they still have the fact that the 2070s are actually available for sale.

There will be some sales, but they are usually reasonably small quantity and time, which historically have been REALLY good values. So it's not a price crash as much as additional sales to get stock down to levels where the desperate may need them.

Its just amazing to me that they're selling 2060 (supers) for over $499 right now.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

hobbesmaster posted:

This is kind of why I was wondering about prices crashing. Do they go on ebay or something so there isn't a "real" price history?

Some just stick around for silly prices for people who either don't know any better, or who need that specific card for some odd reason (SLI matching, replacements for out-of-warranty cards that are part of a system controlled by an entity (government, military, whatever) that will insist on a 1-for-1 replacement and not an "equivalent" part, etc.).

Maybe some get sold back to manufacturers to use for RMA cards? I honestly don't know, other than it doesn't seem like there rarely, if ever, are firesales where retailers are cutting 50%+ off the MSRP of top-end cards to get them down to where they'd be sensible purchases. A 2080 Ti would need to be $450 to make sense in a pure price:performance match right now, but that simply is not going to happen (but they can sell for more like $1000 right now to impatient people simply because of 3080 stock issues).

So I'd guess retailers are gonna try to sell what they've got at around the $1000 price point while 3080's are still super hard to get--it's not like they didn't know this was coming, so I'd imagine most of them stopped ordering shipments of Turing cards a bit ago, so they likely don't have a ton of inventory to sell through at this point.

DrDork fucked around with this message at 17:07 on Oct 12, 2020

movax
Aug 30, 2008

DrDork posted:

Some just stick around for silly prices for people who either don't know any better, or who need that specific card for some odd reason (SLI matching, replacements for out-of-warranty cards that are part of a system controlled by an entity (government, military, whatever) that will insist on a 1-for-1 replacement and not an "equivalent" part, etc.).

This is my guess, people that try to "spec" a PC like its a piece of aerospace hardware and need every component to be 1:1 to a line item on a BOM that can have no substitutes. I just had to convince a dumb-rear end manager of this a few weeks ago and to stop tracking at the component level and just generally look for "x86 PC w/ 4 NICs, x GB RAM, etc." at this point in time, because it's really the software configuration via Ansible that matters more.

Chimp_On_Stilts
Aug 31, 2004
Holy Hell.
Anyone have a link to a discord with an alert bot other than Tu Madre?

Hackan Slash
May 31, 2007
Hit it until it's not a problem anymore

Chimp_On_Stilts posted:

Anyone have a link to a discord with an alert bot other than Tu Madre?

I just left that discord the other night because verifying by phone is a bridge too far. I've resigned myself to just waiting for my place in the evga q to pop.

I assume you can just put distillo on your own discord if you want?

8-bit Miniboss
May 24, 2005

CORPO COPS CAME FOR MY :filez:

Hackan Slash posted:

I just left that discord the other night because verifying by phone is a bridge too far. I've resigned myself to just waiting for my place in the evga q to pop.

I assume you can just put distillo on your own discord if you want?

You can run distill.io as a browser add-on.

slidebite
Nov 6, 2005

Good egg
:colbert:

Anyone have any inside scoop on what the chances are of Amazon might actually having 30xx in stock (sold by Amazon, not a scalper 3rd party) in any quantity for Prime Days which start tomorrow?

OnceIWasAnOstrich
Jul 22, 2006

slidebite posted:

Anyone have any inside scoop on what the chances are of Amazon might actually having 30xx in stock (sold by Amazon, not a scalper 3rd party) in any quantity for Prime Days which start tomorrow?

Nearly zero. Prime day isn't about putting up in-demand products people want to buy, it is about dumping a ton of poo poo or Amazon-branded stuff and convincing people they are getting deals.

Lockback
Sep 3, 2006

All days are nights to see till I see thee; and nights bright days when dreams do show me thee.

OnceIWasAnOstrich posted:

Nearly zero. Prime day isn't about putting up in-demand products people want to buy, it is about dumping a ton of poo poo or Amazon-branded stuff and convincing people they are getting deals.

They might have a couple of good things in there, but probably not any 3xxx series GPUs. Those things would sell out immediately anytime anyway, and it's not like people are going to add soap and trash bags to their GPU order.

Cream-of-Plenty
Apr 21, 2010

"The world is a hellish place, and bad writing is destroying the quality of our suffering."

Lockback posted:

They might have a couple of good things in there, but probably not any 3xxx series GPUs. Those things would sell out immediately anytime anyway, and it's not like people are going to add soap and trash bags to their GPU order.

What are you even talking about dude, the sooner I can get my GPU, the sooner I can start showering my body again and trash-bagging the filth that has accumulated around my desktop from weeks of being a literal prisoner to my keyboard.

DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness
Amazon could easily do "3080 only ships with $1k assorted extra poo poo in your cart" and people would still buy them out immediately.

But I agree--Prime Day has never really been used for launching popular products. At best you get some decent discounts on existing stuff, and then a lot of weird "we found this in the warehouse somewhere!" junk.

Junkenstein
Oct 22, 2003

I pre ordered a PNY 3070 on amazon.co.uk before they sold out. What are the chances that they only put up the allocation they actually have?

Euphoriaphone
Aug 10, 2006

A lot of games are offering Vulkan or DX12 now. Is there one that's generally better to pick? A quick search seems to show Vulkan offers higher FPS averages, but less stability. Is this usually true across games that offer both options?

repiv
Aug 13, 2009

Most games only offer one, and there's no consistent winner in the few that have both. I'm guessing the results you saw were for RDR2.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
nVidia's giving up on direct sales of FEs and handing it off entirely to Best Buy. :toot:

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



BIG HEADLINE posted:

nVidia's giving up on direct sales of FEs and handing it off entirely to Best Buy. :toot:

I just want to loving preorder.

Instead I get messages about how "I should not expect auto notify to work."

Why do other country's seem to have that ability but we cant still.

8-bit Miniboss
May 24, 2005

CORPO COPS CAME FOR MY :filez:

spunkshui posted:

I just want to loving preorder.

Instead I get messages about how "I should not expect auto notify to work."

Why do other country's seem to have that ability but we cant still.

Stronger consumer laws?

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
The really depressing thing is that Best Buy should be better equipped to do what EVGA is doing. I could even see Best Buy doing *paid* pre-orders.

spunkshui
Oct 5, 2011



BIG HEADLINE posted:

The really depressing thing is that Best Buy should be better equipped to do what EVGA is doing. I could even see Best Buy doing *paid* pre-orders.

I would absolutely pay today with no delivery date guaranteed for this year.

If I'm paying this much I want the exact card I want. I'm just worried the scalping will never end.

The longer this continues the longer its going to attract more scalpers.

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DrDork
Dec 29, 2003
commanding officer of the Army of Dorkness

BIG HEADLINE posted:

The really depressing thing is that Best Buy should be better equipped to do what EVGA is doing. I could even see Best Buy doing *paid* pre-orders.

At least BestBuy's website doesn't completely poo poo itself like NVidia and EVGAs kept doing. Just, like, half poo poo itself.

Which seems like a real weird thing to be giving a retailer credit for, but I guess that's where we're at right now.

spunkshui posted:

If I'm paying this much I want the exact card I want. I'm just worried the scalping will never end.

Nah, it'll absolutely end. The Radeon 6000 release will take some pressure off unless they totally gently caress up the pricing there. And every card sold is another person no longer in the hunt; while there is considerable demand, it's not limitless. Supply also increases considerably over the first several months of any card launch.

Unless we end up with another crypto-boom or whatever, availability will get better. Just maybe not by mid-November when so many people really want it to play CP2077 with.

DrDork fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Oct 12, 2020

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