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https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1316165171744825344?s=21 It probably doesn’t mean anything, but I find the idea of herding interesting, and given the movement in that national polls lately into “this can’t last can it” territory, I wonder about these foreign pollsters coming in with even higher numbers for Biden.
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Oct 15, 2020 12:08
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https://twitter.com/DMRegister/status/1316555643013210113
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Oct 15, 2020 12:15
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BiggerBoat posted:California GOP says it won’t remove unofficial ballot boxes Draw attention away from less ridiculous voter suppression in more competitive states? Get arrested and grift donations from chuds?
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Oct 15, 2020 12:32
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paternity suitor posted:https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1316165171744825344?s=21 I don't know if it will bear out into big margins in election results, but as i expanded on above, the last month of the trump campaign has been probably the single worst month of a political campaign I can remember.
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Oct 15, 2020 12:36
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Blurred posted:To put fears about swing state polling in perspective, I decided to make a comparison. To win the election, Trump needs to win at the very least 4, most likely at least 5 of the following states. If he loses FL, he needs to win all of the remaining 6: 1 in 6 chance on 538 that the polls are wrong and Trump will win. That's pretty risky! Yeah there's also a 1 in 6 chance that they're wrong that amount the other way and Biden wins in a hilarious landslide but how much comfort is that. "Yes one chamber has a bullet. But one chamber has candy in it, so why are you worried, it's equally likely you'll get a mouthful of delicious delicious candy when you pull the trigger!"
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Oct 15, 2020 12:49
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It's closer to a 1 in 8 chance on 538 now, with that number gradually decreasing as election day approaches. Not totally impossible but there haven't been many indications that things are trending towards Trump besides conjecture about how the polls might be uniformly wrong again. But that's all it is, conjecture without much factual evidence of how this might happen. I think one strong indicator that things are going Biden's way is that he's remaining competitive in Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa deep into the election cycle, whereas Clinton really fell off in those states as voters came around to Trump.
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Oct 15, 2020 13:01
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I don't know if it will bear out into big margins in election results, but as i expanded on above, the last month of the trump campaign has been probably the single worst month of a political campaign I can remember. That’s the other thing too - there are a lot of credible explanations for big swings towards Biden. I literally cannot think of one besides “but 2016” for Trump. Democrats are mostly voting early, Republicans mostly *plan* to vote on Election Day. COVID cases are rising. The uncertainty of voter models this year due to COVID has been a major caveat to poll results. We’ve all been aware of this for six months now, which is the reason there was a push for mail in ballots in the first place. The very real concerns of how mail in ballots were being handled have really helped tighten up that process. I get a mailer every day on how to mail in my PA ballot. The lines to drop off your ballot at an official drop off location have been around the block and moving fast. Fears of rat fuckery have clearly helped. All of this is to say, there’s a very real chance of an own goal by Republicans here - if COVID cases go up and people get scared and stay home, it’s a Republican turnout problem, not a Democratic turnout problem, and that is not accounted for in polling.
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Oct 15, 2020 13:13
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https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1316711056866246656?s=19
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Oct 15, 2020 13:18
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BiggerBoat posted:California GOP says it won’t remove unofficial ballot boxes Make the state remove those boxes forcibly. Show footage of state removing ballot boxes on national TV. Claim there was infinity ballots in those boxes and that now no one can know the real result of the CA election because the Dem lead state disenfranchised millions of republican voters. When your strategy is 'rat gently caress everything until the truth can be asserted to be what you want' then you got to do a lot of rat loving to see what sticks. That this particular strategy seems to be poorly executed and unlikely to have the expected outcome is probably largely due to that Devin Nunes is involved. Also, partly because the CA Sec State has been very public and patient about whats going on. What I think you can be sure of though is that this is probably not the only thing the CA GoP is doing to gently caress with the election, they may have something that randomly ends up being more effective up their sleeve.
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Oct 15, 2020 13:22
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Blurred posted:To put fears about swing state polling in perspective, I decided to make a comparison. To win the election, Trump needs to win at the very least 4, most likely at least 5 of the following states. If he loses FL, he needs to win all of the remaining 6: This leaves out the incumbent party going full-tilt on ratfuckery. Other than that this is a good post, thank you for making it.
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Oct 15, 2020 13:28
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BiggerBoat posted:California GOP says it won’t remove unofficial ballot boxes The state should immediately go out and collect every single box and trash any ballots in there.
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Oct 15, 2020 13:34
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paternity suitor posted:That’s the other thing too - there are a lot of credible explanations for big swings towards Biden. I literally cannot think of one besides “but 2016” for Trump. Yeah, on this note, too: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days TwoQuestions posted:This leaves out the incumbent party going full-tilt on ratfuckery. Other than that this is a good post, thank you for making it. unless the effort is to ratfuck things into some saddam or assad type of '98% of voters support' you think, there are limits to how much you can swing things. Also with a month of early voting and tons of time to get ballots in and dropped off, i'm skeptical that they're going to be able to limit access to voting on anywhere near the scale that they would need to to offset the margins by which trump appears to be down currently. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 13:49 on Oct 15, 2020 |
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Oct 15, 2020 13:47
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BiggerBoat posted:California GOP says it won’t remove unofficial ballot boxes Uhhhh is there a good reason to not send national guardsmen to disassemble these
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Oct 15, 2020 13:50
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paternity suitor posted:Democrats are mostly voting early, Republicans mostly *plan* to vote on Election Day. Voting by mail a month or more ahead of the election gives people the opportunity to be lazy, slow, confused or even to make mistakes and fix them and still get their vote counted. I don't see anyway that it can work out that fewer people vote when using that method. Particularly over several cycles where voting in person can be impaired by all kinds of random events, such as weather, just get in the way and depress turnout. Making voting method choice an ideological/political question in this way and coming down firmly on the side of the harder to execute method simply hands your opponent a huge strategic advantage. Unless the GoP can get more mail in ballots rejected than the Dems gain in increased participation (again strategically much harder to execute for the conservatives) there is no way for this to work out in their favor, particularly not in the long term. Murgos fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Oct 15, 2020 |
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Oct 15, 2020 13:50
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VitalSigns posted:1 in 6 chance on 538 that the polls are wrong and Trump will win. That's pretty risky! Yeah there's also a 1 in 6 chance that they're wrong that amount the other way and Biden wins in a hilarious landslide but how much comfort is that. What if the bullet is made out of candy?
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Oct 15, 2020 13:51
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So is there any indication that the NY Post Burisma story is a multi-part piece that will drip for the next weeks like the NY Times' exposes on Trump's tax returns and financial shenanigans? I fear the unknown. BiggerBoat posted:What if the bullet is made out of candy? Then death will be... sweet? Youth Decay posted:People were horny for Joe Biden in 2008 too (I distinctly recall a Livejournal blog dedicated to fawning over younger photos of him) but they seem to have gotten that out of their system. I vaguely remember people posting whimsical Tweets in 2016 of all the big Democrats when they were younger.   Potato Salad posted:Uhhhh is there a good reason to not send national guardsmen to disassemble these Probably a lack of resources, sadly.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:01
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Glumwheels posted:The state should immediately go out and collect every single box and trash any ballots in there. Potato Salad posted:Uhhhh is there a good reason to not send national guardsmen to disassemble these Eventually the boxes should be seized but not after a very public show of giving the GoP every chance to take away the boxes and return the ballots to the voters themselves. What I think you should try and avoid is the image of some heavy handed state response that gives the GoP a cause to be aggrieved and make a show of partiality. Particularly over what is a show scam that probably only includes a few dumbass chuds looking for something to be aggrieved about. Absolutely don't use national guard to collect the boxes, that just sends all kinds of the wrong message about things being exceptional and where is due process? You use uniformed California Bureau of investigations accompanied by local police and sheriffs, which sends the message that this is a violation of state criminal code and all the standard due process steps apply. It's nothing special, just crime being done by criminals. You probably also should send a letter to each person identified on the ballot envelop that the state "... found a ballot with your name on it while investigating an illegal ballot harvesting scheme but since they can't confirm chain of custody can you please resubmit your ballot using the enclosed envelop and voting materials in accordance with CA state statute XXX.XX? Thanks!"
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Oct 15, 2020 14:04
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Eric Cantonese posted:So is there any indication that the NY Post Burisma story is a multi-part piece that will drip for the next weeks like the NY Times' exposes on Trump's tax returns and financial shenanigans? I fear the unknown. Lincoln project tweeted there were 3 more stories coming and Cousin Fucker said “he was just getting started”. After how quickly the story was debunked and the nypost/Rudy humiliated who’s to say if they want to continue knowingly publish Russian propaganda.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:04
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The NYPost DID release a second story with more emails this morning that is the main headline on their site about how Hunter was involved with some Chinese company. It’s just no one noticed it as seen in this thread lol.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:09
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Glumwheels posted:Lincoln project tweeted there were 3 more stories coming and Cousin Fucker said “he was just getting started”. After how quickly the story was debunked and the nypost/Rudy humiliated who’s to say if they want to continue knowingly publish Russian propaganda. OANN or probably NYpost again. Shimrra Jamaane posted:The NYPost DID release a second story this morning that is the main headline on their site about how Hunter was involved with some Chinese company. It’s just no one noticed it as seen in this thread lol. lol. how "involved" like owning stock or something.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:11
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Glumwheels posted:Lincoln project tweeted there were 3 more stories coming and Cousin Fucker said “he was just getting started”. After how quickly the story was debunked and the nypost/Rudy humiliated who’s to say if they want to continue knowingly publish Russian propaganda. Yeah but, it's three more drops by the NY Post and Rudy, none of them are going to be any more credible. There is an alternate, more credible, way to read the, 'hard drive seized by the FBI' part of the story. We know the FBI has been investigating Rudy and his dealings overseas as part of a counter-intelligence probe. For the FBI to seize the hard drive there had to be some credible reason to get a warrant from a Judge, someone leaving a computer at a repair shop is not that. Which implies either there was already a larger investigation into Hunter that the warrant was issued under that has been previously unknown OR it's part of the Rudy/Ukraine/Fraud Guarantee mess.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:12
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BiggerBoat posted:California GOP says it won’t remove unofficial ballot boxes I think it's a two-part play. The first part is that these boxes are being set up in GOP strongholds like Orange County, at GOP-favourable locations like churches and local Republican offices. Seen from this angle, it's a straightforward way to facilitate early voting by likely GOP voters, who trust that the Republican Party knows they're voting for it and aren't going to gently caress with their ballots, and therefore trust the GOP to set up a ballot box and turn in their ballots. The second part is that they want to get in a big fight over this, so that voters who aren't GOP loyalists suddenly start doubting the validity of all ballot drop boxes because they could be part of a partisan scheme to steal votes or destroy ballots or whatever. Plus, you know, if the GOP are doing this and getting caught by the media, maybe the other guys are also doing it and not getting caught?? It's another point of evidence that hey, maybe Trump was right and early voting/absentee voting/mail-in voting really is rife with potential errors and fraud, and maybe I shouldn't trust it. Maybe if I drop my straight-ticket Democratic ballot off in a ballot drop box, it's actually a secret GOP one and they'll shred my vote, so I won't do it. It seems to simultaneously be a GOP GOTV tactic and a way to try and delegitimize forms of voting other than turning up in person on election day.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:13
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vyelkin posted:I think it's a two-part play. This seems about right. I'd also suggest that when the boxes are removed it allows the GOP to rile up its base by screaming about how the evil Dem state government is suppressing their vote.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:17
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vyelkin posted:I think it's a two-part play. The other part is this: If you want your election to get decided in the courts, then you need a controversy that a court can decide. Something like this fits the bill.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:18
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Hunters background is scummy nepotism but that's how most big business works and nobody cares
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Oct 15, 2020 14:19
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:The NYPost DID release a second story with more emails this morning that is the main headline on their site about how Hunter was involved with some Chinese company. It’s just no one noticed it as seen in this thread lol. https://mobile.twitter.com/WilliamTurton/status/1316553496192258048 Here’s the Instagram if the author of the post bullshit, no surprises there. She’s a far right loon who loves breitbart,
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Oct 15, 2020 14:21
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Wylie posted:The other part is this: If you want your election to get decided in the courts, then you need a controversy that a court can decide. Something like this fits the bill. Trump will lose California by millions of votes regardless of what happens with these fake dropoff boxes, so, uh... best of luck getting that controversy to matter, GOP! (edit: I know "controversy" is being used in the legal sense here.)
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Oct 15, 2020 14:23
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Sarcastro posted:Trump will lose California by millions of votes regardless of what happens with these fake dropoff boxes, so, uh... best of luck getting that controversy to matter, GOP! (edit: I know "controversy" is being used in the legal sense here.)
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Oct 15, 2020 14:25
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Sarcastro posted:Trump will lose California by millions of votes regardless of what happens with these fake dropoff boxes, so, uh... best of luck getting that controversy to matter, GOP! (edit: I know "controversy" is being used in the legal sense here.) This is true, but it's the local Republican Party doing it, not the Trump campaign, and they'll be concerned about a lot more than the top of the ballot. Orange County is typically one of the few places in California where Republicans can expect to have a good chance of winning. Using just Congressional seats as an example, Orange County elects 7 representatives to the House. Before the 2018 wave, 4 of those 7 were Republicans and 3 were Democrats. Right now all 7 are Democrats, because they swept two years ago. This kind of loving with ballots doesn't need to be part of a national strategy to steal the presidential election (though it won't hurt!), it can also be part of local efforts to steal local elections.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:31
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Sarcastro posted:Trump will lose California by millions of votes regardless of what happens with these fake dropoff boxes, so, uh... best of luck getting that controversy to matter, GOP! (edit: I know "controversy" is being used in the legal sense here.) I think this is mostly about the California GOP trying to steal a few Orange Country US House seats back, but I'm sure they are hoping it will add to a national narrative too.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:34
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The state gave the GOP until today to remove those, so I guess we'll see what happens. It's a strange fight to pick, cause they're obviously in the wrong; the only reason they could be doing this is to gently caress with things.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:40
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Murgos posted:Yeah but, it's three more drops by the NY Post and Rudy, none of them are going to be any more credible. Most likely thing is that the fbi seized it as part of the counter intel probe into rudy and russian interference, especially since the timing apparently lines up with the parnas/furman arrests.
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Oct 15, 2020 14:44
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Chinese Gordon posted:I think this is mostly about the California GOP trying to steal a few Orange Country US House seats back, but I'm sure they are hoping it will add to a national narrative too. Good point (to you and the others who said that as well).
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Oct 15, 2020 15:03
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Most likely thing is that the fbi seized it as part of the counter intel probe into rudy and russian interference, especially since the timing apparently lines up with the parnas/furman arrests. Confirmed: https://twitter.com/robertjdenault/status/1316592064629542913 https://twitter.com/robertjdenault/status/1316594113404383232 LOL at Rudy and the NY Post trying to get ahead of a story about his illegal behavior by incriminating themselves.
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Oct 15, 2020 15:04
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Wylie posted:The other part is this: If you want your election to get decided in the courts, then you need a controversy that a court can decide. Something like this fits the bill.
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Oct 15, 2020 15:18
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Tibalt posted:I don't think California's electoral votes are going to be in doubt. Even if they are, aren't they determined by the California delegation in Congress? It's not so much as to doubt California directly, it's to say "See? Cali's votes were tampered with, who knows about PA or WI?" so the hard-right SCOTUS can weigh in. Probably won't work though, outside other Cool Zone measures.
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Oct 15, 2020 15:20
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What's the actual danger that college campuses being shut down / restricted due to covid will suppress the college vote? I saw something yesterday where Charlie Kirk was boasting that he expected 500k less votes from campus disruption.
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Oct 15, 2020 15:29
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https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1316724614647738368
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Oct 15, 2020 15:32
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Vernii posted:What's the actual danger that college campuses being shut down / restricted due to covid will suppress the college vote? I saw something yesterday where Charlie Kirk was boasting that he expected 500k less votes from campus disruption.
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Oct 15, 2020 15:39
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Charlz Guybon posted:Won't they just vote in their home community? Depends where they registered. I agree this is potentially a significant issue for local races, but probably less so in Presidential terms (although now that I type that out I see that it isn't any great bit of wisdom).
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Oct 15, 2020 15:42
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