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DandyLion posted:This is part of what I can't fully link together with Republican's desire to make Abortion illegal. If lower income folks can't fly to Mexico or Canada to get their abortions like good Christian wealthy white republicans can, wouldn't that imply the numbers of lower income (and generally liberal) voters increases (which is contradictory to the Republican's goal of maintaining power)? What their next step, delivery room to private prison pipeline become more legally enshrined? Republican politicians don't really care if abortion is legal or not, they're "against" abortion because 35% of their party are slavering religious nutjobs for whom abortion is a guarantee donation and vote driver. There is no long term strategic consideration other than "abortion bad!".
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Oct 15, 2020 19:40
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DandyLion posted:This is part of what I can't fully link together with Republican's desire to make Abortion illegal. If lower income folks can't fly to Mexico or Canada to get their abortions like good Christian wealthy white republicans can, wouldn't that imply the numbers of lower income (and generally liberal) voters increases (which is contradictory to the Republican's goal of maintaining power)? What their next step, delivery room to private prison pipeline become more legally enshrined? Lower income people are generally non-voters. Lower income non-college whites are heavily GOP. Ultimately, though you're talking a couple of decades minimum until the voting impact would be felt. That's beyond the lifespan of much of our current political leadership.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:42
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DandyLion posted:This is part of what I can't fully link together with Republican's desire to make Abortion illegal. If lower income folks can't fly to Mexico or Canada to get their abortions like good Christian wealthy white republicans can, wouldn't that imply the numbers of lower income (and generally liberal) voters increases (which is contradictory to the Republican's goal of maintaining power)? What their next step, delivery room to private prison pipeline become more legally enshrined? The solution to that is to make it illegal for poor people to vote, which Republicans have been pursuing successfully for years.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:42
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brugroffil posted:It seems relevant to the polls-posting thread. Unfortunately, multiple posters felt to the need to Well, Actually and put words in my mouth, leading to a bunch of unneeded posting. People aren't saying it's irrelevant to the thread, they're saying it's irrelevant to any issue beyond itself. It isn't indicative of support or opposition to court packing, the election, or any other issue. Undecided people about "nominationg a SCOTUS judge" coming around to the idea could be doing it for any number of reasons, not the least of which is considering it legal, which it is. It doesn't even indicate support for her opinions or positions as a judge. This, after all, isn't just the "posting random polls" thread, it's also for analyzing them. People are allowed to ask you to expand upon your analysis of "this is bad".
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Oct 15, 2020 19:43
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Also, of course covid is an x-factor, but I think its a much greater risk for Republican voters than Democratic voters . Democratic voters are voting now - voting through a safer vehicle (vote by mail or early voting) - and while some Republican voters are going to show up regardless of covid concerns, we know that for many of them covid is still something they're concerned about. How many of them are going to show up on election day if there's a huge spike in their communities? How many of them are going to show up on election if there's a huge spike in their communities... and every news story is about how the Democrats are winning? Also, and I think this is something that's important: every day a higher proportion of Democratic voters than Republican voters exit the persuadable voter category because they're voted. We know right now that Trump needs to actively convince people who support Biden to support him instead - not just win over undecided voters. But the pool of those voters is shrinking at a far greater rate than the pool of Trump voters.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:44
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DandyLion posted:This is part of what I can't fully link together with Republican's desire to make Abortion illegal. If lower income folks can't fly to Mexico or Canada to get their abortions like good Christian wealthy white republicans can, wouldn't that imply the numbers of lower income (and generally liberal) voters increases (which is contradictory to the Republican's goal of maintaining power)? What their next step, delivery room to private prison pipeline become more legally enshrined? there's two answers to this, depending on what type of Republican you are. the bible-thumpers think that the only reason everyone is having all this sexy sexy unmarried sex sex sex is because liberals aren't letting God's righteous punishments happen. If you get rid of abortion (and birth control, and condoms, and HIV meds, and STD prevention and treatment, etc) then everyone will be too terrified of pregnancy and venereal disease to have sex at all outside of a religiously-sanctified marriage preferably missionary position only through a hole in the sheet. the big business Republicans no doubt know that's bullshit, but they're relying on voter suppression anyway. The only states that are going to actually ban abortion are also the ones that go out of their way to make it impossible for poor people and especially poor minorities to vote VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 19:53 on Oct 15, 2020 |
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Oct 15, 2020 19:51
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VitalSigns posted:the bible-thumpers think that the only reason everyone is having all this sexy sexy unmarried sex sex sex is because liberals aren't letting God's righteous punishments happen. If you get rid of abortion (and birth control, and condoms, and HIV meds, and STD prevention and treatment, etc) then everyone will be too terrified of pregnancy and venereal disease to have sex at all outside of a religiously-sanctified marriage preferably missionary position only through a hole in the sheet. Ah, the one's who thought Handmaiden's tale was a rom-com.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:53
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brugroffil posted:It seems relevant to the polls-posting thread. Unfortunately, multiple posters felt to the need to Well, Actually and put words in my mouth, leading to a bunch of unneeded posting. FWIW I think it's bad too. I'm a little surprised Democrats aren't more opposed. A few theories: 1) People don't care about "process" arguments. Yeah McConnell's a huge hypocrite about it; nobody cares it seems. 2) People think the Senate should "do it's job," they hate "partisan bickering." Garland had similar numbers (52% to confirm, 33% opposed) back in 2016. 3) Democrats really haven't focused on messaging about it. They're mostly focusing on Trump, COVID, other stuff. 4) She's done a fairly good job during the hearings of laying low and not saying anything that could give Democrats ammo against her. Yeah she's stonewalling the questions but it's better than saying she'll repeal Obamacare or Row v. Wade. Unless you're very politically aware, you probably don't know how bad she'll be.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:55
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DandyLion posted:This is part of what I can't fully link together with Republican's desire to make Abortion illegal. If lower income folks can't fly to Mexico or Canada to get their abortions like good Christian wealthy white republicans can, wouldn't that imply the numbers of lower income (and generally liberal) voters increases (which is contradictory to the Republican's goal of maintaining power)? What their next step, delivery room to private prison pipeline become more legally enshrined? Abortion is not a strategic choice. The FYGM crowd would love to dump abortion as an issue altogether and give up on it to get more people to vote for millionaire tax cuts. The religious nutjobs really do believe abortion is murder, and the FYGM crowd have no choice but to go along with their demands. They try to throw them bones and empty promises whenever they can, but now they have caught the car.
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Oct 15, 2020 19:57
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The business Republicans don't really want immigration to be tight, either, because they generally benefit from exploited labor. That's why the business Republicans are so frustrated, they've lost control.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:00
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I think 40 odd years (starting with Robert Bork in 1982) of making every nomination to the supreme court the most important one of our lifetime, and every election the one where you absolutely need to hold your nose and vote for the Dem candidate lest Roe v. Wade be imminently overturned has given a lot of the public outrage fatigue.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:05
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Not to mention it is already so restricted in so many states that would actually have very little impact in some states that even have a state constitutional ban. I think like four states only have literally one provider? You would likely see what you see in Poland, where there are cruise ships that will take you out and have it done. Except for most places they won't need the ships, you can just go to Oregon or New York where there aren't any restrictions. Some people already do that. In my mind, that's what really makes it catching the car. It's not going to change as much as people think. It'll still make Democrats absolutely furious, and make the gender gap even wider, and it will disincentivize single issue abortion voters. Sure, it will go to the states, and some states are going to be awful, but most of them already are.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:07
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They’ll let it happen because there’s no way to stop it. People are over it. There’s no mechanism, no means, nothing. Every republican senator who votes against what little conscience they have to confirm will still have a cushy and comfortable life after politics if they lose their seat. There’s zero downside. So it’s kind of a pointless fight. The real fight will begin when the court starts interfering with legislation or undoing it. If it creates a partisan gridlock with democratic control of the senate I could see the court packing movement gain steam just to “get things done”. Alternatively court packing becomes the new carrot and stick for Dems to campaign for without doing anything about it when elected.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:10
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Ben Sasse had some choice words about Trump. "Butts" is probably a swear word in Nebraska. https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1316810031090683904?s=20 Highly unlikely, but lol if this turns chuds against him and he loses his senate seat
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Oct 15, 2020 20:10
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Sasse is the worst. All talk, no action. In the end he always lines up behind Trump. He has no guts.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:13
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Sasse is running against a candidate who the Nebraska Democratic party begged to drop out because of inappropriate sexual comments to a staffer. The dude wouldn't drop out, so the party stopped support and now are pushing a write-in candidate. Sasse isn't going anywhere.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:17
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Pick posted:The business Republicans don't really want immigration to be tight, either, because they generally benefit from exploited labor. That's why the business Republicans are so frustrated, they've lost control. i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:18
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. They're not getting it back.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:24
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. They will doubtless attempt it but the cat is out of the bag now. The base has been radicalised by 45 years of increasingly unhinged propaganda and now Trump has given them a taste of full-fat racism they are not going to vote for another Romney type. The 2024 nominee will likely be a Trump family member or some deranged chud businessman or TV personality.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:24
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Chinese Gordon posted:They will doubtless attempt it but the cat is out of the bag now. The base has been radicalised by 45 years of increasingly unhinged propaganda and now Trump has given them a taste of full-fat racism they are not going to vote for another Romney type. The 2024 nominee will likely be a Trump family member or some deranged chud businessman or TV personality. It's going to be Tucker Carlson I guarantee it.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:28
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VitalSigns posted:there's two answers to this, depending on what type of Republican you are. I think that you are missing a significant component of population pressure among the lower classes which is increased competition for scarce resources leading to more bad outcomes and stagnant mobility. It's an oppression tactic to keep poor people poor and subservient to the system. Rich people will ALWAYS be able to get an abortion, or more prosaically 'send darling off to summer with her relatives' if they want to go that route. Poor people have to try and spread that minimum wage check a little further and that leads to all kids of bad things at a macro level.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:32
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After abortion it's contraception. The goal is rolling back everything.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:34
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. The Rockefeller Republicans are kinda-sorta libertarian, but the Evangelicals and Fascists (and Trump) are all hard Authoritarian, so the business wing will likely defect. Goldman Sachs has already soft-endorsed Biden's economic policy even! The left flank of the Democratic party is very libertarian (generally correct that the State will not help unless forced to), so I could see people to the right of Mao be allies but not friends with business types who would prefer taxation to death-cultists running the show. It'd lead to a big tent Democratic Party full of people who hate one another, and a Cultist Republican party, so not terribly different than it was in 2000 or so. *dons fireproof suit* Raenir Salazar posted:After abortion it's contraception. The goal is rolling back everything. I remember this was brought up during the Romney campaign briefly, and better than 90% of people find contraception a done deal. Overturning that would be like finding Medicare unconstitutional, or some other insane thing. It'd be instant horrible consequences for millions, immediately.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:45
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TwoQuestions posted:The Rockefeller Republicans are kinda-sorta libertarian, but the Evangelicals and Fascists (and Trump) are all hard Authoritarian, so the business wing will likely defect. Goldman Sachs has already soft-endorsed Biden's economic policy even! probably, my belief is the GOP will slowly crumble in our life times and the DNC will eventually split apart because it gets too big of a tent party. i dont think the "GOP will die" or anything. i think they will just end up being a big state party and probably have senate/house seats but it will be smaller. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Oct 15, 2020 |
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Oct 15, 2020 20:50
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brugroffil posted:Perhaps! It would still be better if the public clearly disapproved of this blatant power grab with a deeply reactionary theocrat. objection - garland->gorsuch was the power grab. this is just ramming in an insane extremist while you still have power.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:51
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TwoQuestions posted:I remember this was brought up during the Romney campaign briefly, and better than 90% of people find contraception a done deal. Overturning that would be like finding Medicare unconstitutional, or some other insane thing. It'd be instant horrible consequences for millions, immediately. So it's got two sure SCOTUS votes already, and a third inbound.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:53
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TwoQuestions posted:I remember this was brought up during the Romney campaign briefly, and better than 90% of people find contraception a done deal. Overturning that would be like finding Medicare unconstitutional, or some other insane thing. It'd be instant horrible consequences for millions, immediately. Yeah, Catholics don't do contraception but AFAIK most Protestant denominations don't have a problem with it (within a marriage, naturally). It won't happen.
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Oct 15, 2020 20:57
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Why do people not like expanding the supreme court but are also fine with putting a crazy person on the court?
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Oct 15, 2020 20:58
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Yeah, Catholics don't do contraception but AFAIK most Protestant denominations don't have a problem with it (within a marriage, naturally). It won't happen. lots and lots of catholics do contraception
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Oct 15, 2020 20:58
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Antifa Turkeesian posted:Why do people not like expanding the supreme court but are also fine with putting a crazy person on the court? I don't know how SCOTUS works. Doesn't Roberts get to write the opinion if he's in the majority?
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Oct 15, 2020 21:00
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brugroffil posted:lots and lots of catholics do contraception Yeah Tradcath nutbars like ACB are very much the minority in the US, and even more so in Catholic parts of Europe.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:00
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. The base has far more tea party types than business types at this point and even if it were the other way around: there is not a viable coalition with just business republicans. Who would they add to the coalition to replace the social conservatives? How would they hope to get to a majority. Either the business wing defects to the democrats or they suck it up so more.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:02
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Yeah, Catholics don't do contraception but AFAIK most Protestant denominations don't have a problem with it (within a marriage, naturally). It won't happen. The vast, vast, vast, vast majority of Catholics do in fact use contraception these days.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:02
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i suspect we might see an attempted full takeover from the business republicans. the evangelicals and the facists/tea party clowns cost them everything and now trumps gonna lose them the senate/house/presidency. they lost the suburbs and most demos outside white dudes with no college. it will be interesting to see what happens if they fully go the way of the rockfeller republicans or they take back the reins. They don't really care that much. They got some big goals accomplished this term between all the bullshit and are happy to work with Biden to either keep what they grabbed in the last four years or get some more modest things accomplished with him. They might not prefer concentration camps, but they're fine with them. They're probably ok with a modest welfare state for whites only if that also involves machine-gunning climate refugees at the border and a huge population of criminialized people to exploit for labor that can't be automated.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:04
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brugroffil posted:lots and lots of catholics do contraception Unless you're talking about "nautural family planning" (timing the woman's cycle) they're not supposed to. edit: I realise this may be separate from the reality - there are plenty of "cultural Catholics" out there.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:05
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My wife's whole family are weekly-church-going Catholics who are also a bunch of centrist/mildly liberal Democrats, at least for the most part, and none of them have more than 3 kids. Even regularly practicing Catholics use birth control on the reg
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Oct 15, 2020 21:06
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Ethics_Gradient posted:Unless you're talking about "nautural family planning" (timing the woman's cycle) they're not supposed to. The gap between what they're supposed to do and what they actually do is a vast, howling chasm EDIT: absolutely not unique to Catholics though, plenty of Muslims drink and Jews eat bacon, for example
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Oct 15, 2020 21:07
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I'm a (admittedly low grade) practicing Catholic, my father is a tithing one, I went to catholic school, and contraception has always been accepted and the default. We even learned about it in Catholic school as part of a "range of perspectives". Tradcaths are weirdos.
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Oct 15, 2020 21:09
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Nessus posted:They haven't been educated on the matter I reckon. And of course the Republicans have a more efficient "education" mechanism in this context. Roberts gets to *assign* the opinion if he's in the majority, including assigning it to himself if he wants
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Oct 15, 2020 21:10
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brugroffil posted:lots and lots of catholics do contraception
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