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TulliusCicero posted:This is also an incredibly bad lie If they were going to lie, they'd make up better numbers than that
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Oct 16, 2020 18:08
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Grondoth posted:One of the reasons I keep wondering about what will happen to the GOP is because Trump is both clearly an electoral problem but is their base. The party never wanted him in charge, but he embodies who actually votes for them so it didn't matter what they wanted. Our dumbfuck electoral college let him become president even though he lost the popular vote by a lot, but the midterms really went bad for them and it at least looks like 2020 will be too. The smart thing would be to memory hole him and move on, but he will absolutely not let them and has more or less control over their voting base. So what the gently caress do they even do? Stick with him until he dies? Distance themselves until he gets angry and splits the party? There's not really a good option here. There are plenty of intelligent Republican leaders who understand that the party is headed for an electoral ditch as a southern regional party. They have wanted to focus less on cultural issues and more on their evil FYGM policies for a decade, but they keep getting blocked by their raving mad bloc of racists and ultrareligious nuts. Their long-term future has to be to become Libertarians. Trump winning set them back badly, if the much feared horrifying villain Hillary had won, that may have shocked the GOP base into really looking seriously at what they need to change in order to win, but racism defeated a horribly unpopular candidate who depressed Dem turnout, barely, and that shocking victory is probably going to cause the racists and religious nutjobs to insist on rerunning the same play into a brick wall until the leaders finally get their party back under control. Trump's horrifically bad presidency has handed the Dems an opportunity to make a hell of a lot of progress, beginning with HR1 which would make it much more difficult to win with a gerrymandered minority. Rigel fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 18:10
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For comparison, Trump won Alaska by around 15% in 2016. If that raw margin holds, that's a backslide of about 9%.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:12
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FMguru posted:Alas, the poll is of "adults", not "citizens" or "registered voters" or "likely voters" so it really isn't measuring anything electorally useful. If Trump plunges through his 43% favorable floor with republicans he’s in danger, the party is in danger, of more than just losing his election. If what’s left of ‘mainstream’ conservatives turn on him he could lose ACB as the party tries to wildly course correct.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:12
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I wonder how long hatred of Trump, whether he wins or not, is going to have an effect. Will it matter in 2024 if a Republican senator up for re-election has photos of him and Donald Trump hanging out?
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Oct 16, 2020 18:12
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That AP poll always has Trumps approval way lower than everyone else.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:14
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Murgos posted:If what’s left of ‘mainstream’ conservatives turn on him he could lose ACB as the party tries to wildly course correct. There's zero chance that Senate Republicans will back down from this confirmation, regardless of polling. 40 years of ACB on the court is worth even 10 years of electoral defeats to them.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:15
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Murgos posted:If what’s left of ‘mainstream’ conservatives turn on him he could lose ACB as the party tries to wildly course correct. No way he will lose ACB. The republicans absolutely will not let that go and doing so would lose their religious base.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:16
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twice burned ice posted:There's zero chance that Senate Republicans will back down from this confirmation, regardless of polling. 40 years of ACB on the court is worth even 10 years of electoral defeats to them. And even if the GOP believed the implied threat that confirming ACB will lead to court-packing, they would probably assume we're talking about 11 and not 13, and backing down would be the same as the Dems proving they weren't bluffing, so there is no benefit to giving in. (Dems filling the seat, vs getting ACB in exchange for 2 new Dem judges) So, they may as well call the bluff and see if the Dems actually will expand the court. They still have reason to hope that Feinstein and a couple others might decorum their way into a self-own.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:20
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Grondoth posted:One of the reasons I keep wondering about what will happen to the GOP is because Trump is both clearly an electoral problem but is their base. The party never wanted him in charge, but he embodies who actually votes for them so it didn't matter what they wanted. Our dumbfuck electoral college let him become president even though he lost the popular vote by a lot, but the midterms really went bad for them and it at least looks like 2020 will be too. The smart thing would be to memory hole him and move on, but he will absolutely not let them and has more or less control over their voting base. So what the gently caress do they even do? Stick with him until he dies? Distance themselves until he gets angry and splits the party? There's not really a good option here. its also much different time than 2010 was. alot of the conservative dems got pushed out of power and people have had 10 years of openly awful bad faith GOP bullshit(more than that but online poo poo has helped alot) alot of the dem base wants mitch and co put in their place and such. Pick posted:I wonder how long hatred of Trump, whether he wins or not, is going to have an effect. Will it matter in 2024 if a Republican senator up for re-election has photos of him and Donald Trump hanging out? trumps not gonna go away fully. there will be big drama poo poo shows about him untill he dies and while i suspect some in the GOP will try to memory hole him. it won't work.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:20
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Flip Yr Wig posted:Paul Volcker slashed the interest rates in 1983, ending the recession that he caused. He raised rates in 1983. He cut rates in 1982.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:21
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HappyHippo posted:If they were going to lie, they'd make up better numbers than that I’m going to go with some from column A and some from column B. It’s probably a questionable aggregate of things you wouldn’t normally call a specific candidates fundraising. I don’t think the real deal numbers are required to be reported for months yet. Plenty of time to issue a retraction or amended totals. If they had $250M on hand and expected another $200M+ in October they wouldn’t be cutting ad buys to the bone. Well, they could if Trump was like, “Don’t you loving spend my money on that poo poo! That’s MY money.” Like he did with his transition funds.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:22
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Theres an interesting question. Presidential campaigns never end in the black, they usually have to ask donors to help retire the campaign debt, but what if Trump's campaign has a pile of money left over? Can Trump take it?
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Oct 16, 2020 18:25
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TulliusCicero posted:This is also an incredibly bad lie They're mashing the RNC's total numbers in there as well which is supposed to be sending money to all sorts of tight races. So it might be an extra million that Trump's pissing down the drain in DC but it's not going to Tillis or Ernst any more.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:26
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Dapper_Swindler posted:. alot of the conservative dems got pushed out of power Good riddance, Lipinski! At least there was one spot on my ballot I was actually happy to fill out this year.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:27
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Murgos posted:If Trump plunges through his 43% favorable floor with republicans he’s in danger, the party is in danger, of more than just losing his election. Trump could spend from here to the election communicating entirely in all-caps tweeted racial slurs - causing him to drop to 37% in the polls - and ACB would still be confirmed. He is now entirely irrevelant to the confirmation process, which itself is the culmination of the GOP's decades-long attempt to cement minority rule. If there are 50 living R senators on October 26th, ACB is getting confirmed.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:27
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twice burned ice posted:There's zero chance that Senate Republicans will back down from this confirmation, regardless of polling. 40 years of ACB on the court is worth even 10 years of electoral defeats to them. There are other slightly less horrible but still really horrible candidates that they can fall back to in an attempt to distance themselves a bit. It’s not giving up the seat, just that particular person. edit: I think a lot of people would accept another Gorsuch or even Kavanaugh to remove the specter of Barrett from ruling out of the 11th century. Murgos fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 18:31
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exquisite tea posted:I think the most likely reason is that support for Trump is dropping off bigly in states that were already favorable to Biden. That would somewhat explain this shift to Biden leading by 10 nationally even while the state-level polls remain mostly the same as they were through September, gaining only maybe a point here and there. I think it's also because that, believe it or not, there's a significant amount of people that legit hardly pay any attention whatsoever to politics until every 4th October. For people as terminally online and engaged as SA Goons in D&D, it's hard to comprehend that these types exist but they do and have very recently gotten a really unfiltered load of Donald's entire act and have been like "yeah, gently caress that guy". These folks by and large just want a normal, boring person and Biden fills that role in spades.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:33
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Murgos posted:There are other slightly less horrible but still really horrible candidates that they can fall back to in an attempt to distance themselves a bit. They need Trump to nominate that person. Mitch can't just confirm whomever they want. Any other nominee would have the same Trump stink, plus the added stink of likely coming during Trump's lame duck session at this point.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:38
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Rigel posted:Theres an interesting question. Presidential campaigns never end in the black, they usually have to ask donors to help retire the campaign debt, but what if Trump's campaign has a pile of money left over? Can Trump take it? Legally, not really. It can get donated to charity or to other political campaigns. It can be socked away to be spent on a future campaign, which is the closest thing to just being able to pocket it. This has 0% chance of actually stopping him from taking the money for himself though.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:38
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There have definitely been predictions that as many as 80 million people could vote by mail or vote early ahead of Nov 4th. This seems pretty in line with that. It also makes sense that we should expect 1 or 2 more inflection points as incoming ballots accelerate over the next 2 and a half weeks which could push it north of 80 million. edit: Have some MS Paint: 
Murgos fucked around with this message at 18:49 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 18:38
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wilderthanmild posted:They need Trump to nominate that person. Mitch can't just confirm whomever they want. Any other nominee would have the same Trump stink, plus the added stink of likely coming during Trump's lame duck session at this point. After the election though.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:38
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https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1317152022169268224
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Oct 16, 2020 18:44
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nice. i switched back and forth and the trump one was just pathetic and dumb. bidens while i didnt agree with everything/thought he messed up the wording a good answer or two, was actually very watchable and calming.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:49
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brugroffil posted:Good riddance, Lipinski! In my area, my (mail-in) ballot had a bunch of local judges running on all party lines, unopposed. Like the same name was listed on both Democratic and Republican lines. When I looked into them, half of them were affiliated Dem or Rep, but it was pretty drat hard to find out that info. Apparently the two parties agreed on a set of judges and endorsed them all, which I felt is bullshit. I ended up taking like 2 hrs to do extensive internet research just so that I wasn't secretly voting for a conservative judge (even though they're guaranteed the win due to running unopposed). Ended up with like half of my bubbles blank. Anyone else have to deal with those kind of shenanigans? JazzFlight fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 18:49
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Murgos posted:If Trump plunges through his 43% favorable floor with republicans he’s in danger, the party is in danger, of more than just losing his election. I think we could see a split that doesn’t cost Mitch his majority. Republicans voting for Biden most likely won’t vote for dem senators regardless what Lincoln project is pushing.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:55
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Rigel posted:There are plenty of intelligent Republican leaders who understand that the party is headed for an electoral ditch as a southern regional party. They have wanted to focus less on cultural issues and more on their evil FYGM policies for a decade, but they keep getting blocked by their raving mad bloc of racists and ultrareligious nuts. Their long-term future has to be to become Libertarians. This is well put and I think you're right. Decades of these leaders feeding their rubes mountains of horse poo poo as "information" through radio, FOX, books, pundits, churches and such didn't bother the ones benefiting from it who never believed in it to start with so long as they got votes. But now the true believers have taken over as the base, are holding office in several places and are too big to ignore. The old money/corporate greed arm of the GOP never cared about church or abortion and poo poo, thought that democrats ate babies and probably laugh out loud at crap like Qanon but the monster has broken free of its chains and now they can't win without placating or feeding it.
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Oct 16, 2020 18:57
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Alaska is such a weird state, but I think this likely shuts the door on a surprise Senate win there. Down 8 with the 3rd party getting another 8 is going to be hard to get, you'd need almost all of them to come to your side. Appreciate that NYTimes polled it though.
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Oct 16, 2020 19:01
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Alaska is uniquely unfavorable to Democrats because it has the highest percentage of dudes per capita of any state in the union. Wyoming is second.
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Oct 16, 2020 19:03
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axeil posted:Alaska is such a weird state, but I think this likely shuts the door on a surprise Senate win there. Down 8 with the 3rd party getting another 8 is going to be hard to get, you'd need almost all of them to come to your side. check out these polls from 2008 (2012 and 2016 had like one poll apiece so I didn't use them) https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ak/alaska_mccain_vs_obama-640.html https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/ak/alaska_senate-562.html you have swings of sometimes ten points from any given poll to the final result. in this case, the polling understated the republican's margin, and that may be the case this time too. but my point here is that the final result could very well be 8+ points off from the polls
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Oct 16, 2020 19:06
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exquisite tea posted:Alaska is uniquely unfavorable to Democrats because it has the highest percentage of dudes per capita of any state in the union. Wyoming is second. True but Gross is technically running as an independent
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Oct 16, 2020 19:17
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https://twitter.com/jonathanvswan/status/1317121796001419265?s=20quote:In reporting out this story, Axios learned that Stepien has described to some colleagues that he sees at least three pathways to 270 electoral votes.
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Oct 16, 2020 19:30
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Yeah the first one is the one that keeps me up and the most likely by far.
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Oct 16, 2020 19:33
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So this is happening https://twitter.com/brianstelter/status/1317165578050744322
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Oct 16, 2020 19:34
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I know it's Trafalgar, but still https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1317133006495244291 Edit: I went looking through all MI polls to find another one with a Trump lead. It was September 24th, also by Trafalgar. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/michigan/ canyonero fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 19:40
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There is no "but still," Trafalgar sucks
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Oct 16, 2020 19:41
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canyonero posted:I know it's Trafalgar, but still So Biden is like plus 9-10 in MI right?
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Oct 16, 2020 19:45
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Pick posted:Yeah the first one is the one that keeps me up and the most likely by far. That first one is the most likely, but even that "easy part" of that scenario seems pretty hard since it's 3 tossups and a long odds state. I don't think there is any path to campaign his way to 270, he pretty much needs all the polls to be wrong by a larger factor than 2016 to win.
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Oct 16, 2020 19:53
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TulliusCicero posted:So Biden is like plus 9-10 in MI right? Michigan does not look competitive. To the extent that Trump has a reasonable path (I don't, but if I have to point at the least-unreasonable), it would be Arizona being just a big fat mirage along with the Pennsylvania secrecy ballot issue in mail in ballots being a far bigger problem than we expect to disqualify a hell of a lot of votes to get Trump to win there. After that, if Trump gets Florida then he's pretty close. wilderthanmild posted:That first one is the most likely, but even that "easy part" of that scenario seems pretty hard since it's 3 tossups and a long odds state. I'd be cautious with this, one thing 2016 showed us is that if there's a big polling miss, it wont be confined to one state. We don't believe there is, and the warning flags we ignored (swing state polls outperforming nationals) aren't there this time, but once we start just willy-nilly handing Trump battleground states in these hypotheticals, then that "easy part" really does get easy. Rigel fucked around with this message at 20:00 on Oct 16, 2020 |
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Oct 16, 2020 19:56
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this is one way to gently caress with voting https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1317173478634721284
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Oct 16, 2020 20:16
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