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Randarkman posted:All info coming out of this conflict appears highly suspect. Like Armenia claims that they have inflicted over 6,000 KIAs on the Azerbaijanis and their allied forces, which is just ludicrous. Yeah I think just looking at a map makes it pretty clear who's winning and who's losing, but on top of that, Armenia wouldn't be screaming for a cease fire if they thought they had the ability to reinforce the old status quo by defeating the Azeri attack. Azerbaijan's clearly winning, and my suspicion is that their advantage is only growing over time. That isn't to say they have the stomach to push for total victory, and I seriously doubt Russia's going to allow them to go that far in any case, but if the two belligerent parties were left to sort this out on their own, I don't think there's any question that Azerbaijan would ultimately have their way.
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Oct 18, 2020 21:43
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Randarkman posted:All info coming out of this conflict appears highly suspect. Like Armenia claims that they have inflicted over 6,000 KIAs on the Azerbaijanis and their allied forces, which is just ludicrous. Kind of, but the Azeris aren't just putting out random numbers, they're releasing pretty solid evidence that they are hitting high value targets one would expect to be both well defended and missed by the Armenian war effort. This seems to be corroborated by their consistent advances and capture of territory and it makes sense that, as the currently-winning side, they have less need to invent fake victories. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 21:57 on Oct 18, 2020 |
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Oct 18, 2020 21:54
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 It looks like the Azeris have recovered maybe 10% of the Armenian-occupied territories back. I don't know how much longer that they can sustain this conflict though. I imagine that if they could negotiate the return of all of the lands surrounding the Nagorno-Karabakh region back, they would take it. Most of their IDPs lived in those surrounding regions, and although their domestic population might wish otherwise, I doubt that the government actually wants to deal with the fallout that would come from ethnically cleansing Armenians out of the regions where their IDPs didn't even live in. Then again, I have no idea how the geopolitics of Russia & Turkey work. If the Armenian defense collapsed, would Russia really lift a finger as long as the Azeris don't pursue them across the internationally recognized Armenian border? Russia has other issues to worry about, and Putin does not have good relations with Yerevan's current government. Snipee fucked around with this message at 00:17 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 00:05
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Even if Russia doesn't give a poo poo about Armenia, limiting Turkish influence in the Caucasus is still a reasonable goal for Russia to have, so I don't think they'll let Turkey support Azerbaijan all the way to total victory--they'll want to make it clear that Azerbaijan wins only to the extent that Russia allows it. Beyond that, countries like France have been practically begging Russia to do something, so having a rare opportunity to look good on the international stage also gives Russia a strong incentive to play peacemaker.
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Oct 19, 2020 00:15
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So long as Russia doesn't fail to uphold their agreement to preserve the borders of Armenia proper they lose essentially nothing by staying out of this. Azerbaijan has no interest in Russian territory or destroying their own relationship with Russia while Armenia will be even more dependent on Russian protection (and new Russian weapon purchases) if they lose this war. They have an awful lot they could lose if they ended up in a shooting war against Turkey. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 00:54
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Sinteres posted:Yeah I think just looking at a map makes it pretty clear who's winning and who's losing, but on top of that, Armenia wouldn't be screaming for a cease fire if they thought they had the ability to reinforce the old status quo by defeating the Azeri attack. Azerbaijan's clearly winning, and my suspicion is that their advantage is only growing over time. That isn't to say they have the stomach to push for total victory, and I seriously doubt Russia's going to allow them to go that far in any case, but if the two belligerent parties were left to sort this out on their own, I don't think there's any question that Azerbaijan would ultimately have their way. All the territory they’ve taken has been in the southern desert/flatland, which just can’t be defended without air superiority. And as for casualties 7000 is inflated obviously but if it’s even 3000 that’s 3x as many as AM. They haven’t yet shown any ability to push into the mountains, which is like 80% of the territory The original early 90s war was mostly fought in the mountains in the north and AZ had extremely heavy casualties, despite also having a big materiel advantage. It’s probably bigger this time, AZ has a better trained army and AM probably doesn’t have the same will to fight, but I don’t see them wanting to do that again even if they could theoretically win icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 01:28 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 01:14
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Warbadger posted:So long as Russia doesn't fail to uphold their agreement to preserve the borders of Armenia proper they lose essentially nothing by staying out of this. Azerbaijan has no interest in Russian territory or destroying their own relationship with Russia while Armenia will be even more dependent on Russian protection (and new Russian weapon purchases) if they lose this war. Russia could bomb Baku tomorrow and they still wouldn't be in a shooting war against Turkey. Obviously Russia's not going to jump to something that crazy either, but this conflict would be about the worst opportunity to pick a fight with Russia Turkey could choose since there are a number of European countries that would sympathize more with Russia. icantfindaname posted:All the territory they’ve taken has been in the southern desert/flatland, which just can’t be defended without air superiority. And as for casualties 7000 is inflated obviously but if it’s even 3000 that’s 3x as many as AM. They haven’t yet shown any ability to push into the mountains, which is like 80% of the territory I'm not going to negotiate about casualty numbers since we don't know and pulling numbers out of our asses to try to fix the numbers the belligerents are pulling out of theirs doesn't make much sense, but Armenia's still the one screaming for a cease fire while Azerbaijan seems happy to keep fighting. That's not the pattern you'd see if Armenia was inflicting disproportionate enough casualties to be grinding out a win after ceding some easy ground.
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Oct 19, 2020 01:28
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Sinteres posted:Russia could bomb Baku tomorrow and they still wouldn't be in a shooting war against Turkey. I think the civilian bombing campaign is a significant factor here, AM could fight to a stalemate but it doesn’t matter if the population flees because the cities are bombed to rubble. As for casualties again AZ is basically a totalitarian state with no independent media so it’s unclear how many dead the public will accept, but the import of Syrian jihadis makes no sense except as a means to reduce native casualties. They’re bottom of the barrel fighters, they’re not useful for any other purpose
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Oct 19, 2020 01:32
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Frankly though even if the war ended tomorrow with territory as is this should be considered a disastrous misplay by AM over the last 20 years. AM is cash strapped but it still doesn’t seem like a total war scenario was fully planned or prepared for. Why do they still have like 1940s Soviet flak cannons for AA? Why don’t they have a pile of ballistic missiles aimed at AZ pipelines and other targets like Iran with clearly expressed red lines on when they would use them? I guess it’s a small country and they’re hard to hide? Failing that, why not just have given up the clearly indefensible, uninhabited bits they’ve lost now 20 years ago? It seems like they thought they won the first war and that AZ are cave dwellers who could never beat them, so don’t bother.
icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 01:39
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Sinteres posted:I'm not going to negotiate about casualty numbers since we don't know and pulling numbers out of our asses to try to fix the numbers the belligerents are pulling out of theirs doesn't make much sense, but Armenia's still the one screaming for a cease fire while Azerbaijan seems happy to keep fighting. Someone recently said to me: Why make up many numbers when you can just make up one, and I thought it was brilliant.
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Oct 19, 2020 01:51
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icantfindaname posted:Frankly though even if the war ended tomorrow with territory as is this should be considered a disastrous misplay by AM over the last 20 years. AM is cash strapped but it still doesn’t seem like a total war scenario was fully planned or prepared for. Why do they still have like 1940s Soviet flak cannons for AA? Why don’t they have a pile of ballistic missiles aimed at AZ pipelines and other targets like Iran with clearly expressed red lines on when they would use them? I guess it’s a small country and they’re hard to hide? Failing that, why not just have given up the clearly indefensible, uninhabited bits they’ve lost now 20 years ago? It seems like they thought they won the first war and that AZ are cave dwellers who could never beat them, so don’t bother. Armenia actually has a very modern and dense integrated air defense network. They've got a bunch of S-300 batteries (based on the upgraded 1985 variant and likely modernized), the 2007 variant of the Buk, brand spanking new Tor systems, modernized Osas, modernized Strela-10s, and current gen Russian MANPADS. For the size of the country they also have a LOT of these, vastly disproportionate compared to most places - plus a collection of older stuff like the Kub and S-125 in varying states of modernization. For ballistic missiles they have Iskanders, Tochkas, and Scuds so they've definitely got some very modern rockets to throw around. All of that plus a very close relationship with Russia for training and upgrades and it's, on paper, a very formidable force. It's actually pretty impressive and unexpected that the Azeris have been able to control the air to the extent they have, likely a result of lessons from the Israeli and Turkish playbooks but also a sign that they are passably competent. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 01:54
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Lmao this is like a new sinteres level of analysis The Armenians already controlled all the disputed territory before the fighting started, of course they want a cease fire while they essentially still held everything they did prewar, what the gently caress else were they going to do, march on Baku and annex the rest of Azerbaijan? Shockingly Azerbaijan which unilaterally launched the war doesn’t want a ceasefire before they’ve actually achieved any of their war aims.
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Oct 19, 2020 02:04
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icantfindaname posted:Frankly though even if the war ended tomorrow with territory as is this should be considered a disastrous misplay by AM over the last 20 years. AM is cash strapped but it still doesn’t seem like a total war scenario was fully planned or prepared for. Why do they still have like 1940s Soviet flak cannons for AA? Why don’t they have a pile of ballistic missiles aimed at AZ pipelines and other targets like Iran with clearly expressed red lines on when they would use them? I guess it’s a small country and they’re hard to hide? Failing that, why not just have given up the clearly indefensible, uninhabited bits they’ve lost now 20 years ago? It seems like they thought they won the first war and that AZ are cave dwellers who could never beat them, so don’t bother. I think giving up any territory voluntarily would have been unacceptable for domestic political reasons. Armenia obviously knew the balance of power was shifting against them, and I think that's mainly for reasons beyond their control, but admitting their relative weakness and offering concessions at the negotiating table would have been massively unpopular, and may have just been rejected by the Azeris anyway. I think Armenia was basically just hoping the frozen conflict would stay frozen forever, or that if Azerbaijan restarted it they'd be viewed as the aggressor (which has happened) and the international community would stop them (which hasn't). Throatwarbler posted:Lmao this is like a new sinteres level of analysis Repelling the invasion would be a pretty good deterrent from future action, putting them in a position to negotiate from strength, while consistently losing ground and crying uncle just makes the other side want to grab another chunk next time they get a chance and/or forces Armenia to negotiate the fate of the territory from a position of weakness. Armenia's relative strength is only shrinking, so if they have the ability to bloody Azerbaijan's nose, this is the best opportunity they'll ever have to do it.
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Oct 19, 2020 02:14
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:You're right. This is damning evidence that max blumenthal is a pro assad mouthpiece and is blaming ~~the wesr~~ for syria's problems. Vincent Van Goatse posted:The Gray Zone is owned by people like Blumenthal who love carrying water for Assad. Its amazing how Trumpian accusations of Fake News have spread up and down the political spectrum. No attempt to rebut the facts, no interrogation of the reporting. Just spit out a thought-terminating cliche and feel smug satisfaction with one's unexamined position.
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Oct 19, 2020 07:17
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icantfindaname posted:All the territory they’ve taken has been in the southern desert/flatland, which just can’t be defended without air superiority. And as for casualties 7000 is inflated obviously but if it’s even 3000 that’s 3x as many as AM. They haven’t yet shown any ability to push into the mountains, which is like 80% of the territory I highly doubt Armenia has inflicted even close to 3000 KIAs on Azerbaijan. One number that seems kind of trustworthy is that ~150 Syrian fighters may have been killed, and that Armenia admits to around 700 killed for their own forces, depending on how much the Syrians are being put in the line of fire as part of securing territory (most fighting here seems to be doen via long range bombardment, air and drone strikes) compared to regular Azerbaijan military, it's very likely we're looking equal or lower casualties for the Azerbaijanis here, even if exact numbers are almost impossible to verify (can we trust the Armenian reports of their casualties?). With the way the war seems to be going, there is no way Armenia is inflicintg 5x or 10x disproportionate losses on the Azerbaijanis here, there are definitely not human wave attacks being lanched into some Artsakh meatgrinder.
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Oct 19, 2020 09:37
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I don't think any numbers being bandied about in this thread are accurate, especially as both Armenia and Azerbaijan clearly have absolutely no compunction about lying and since this is such a partisan war everyone is biased to believe their own side. I think it will only become clear how the war is really going for both sides if Azerbaijan withdraws (decisive Armenian victory), the fighting reaches a stalemate in the mountains or a ceasefire holds (inconclusive) or Stepanakert falls to the Azeri forces (decisive Azerbaijan victory). If you look at it like that it's clear why Armenia wants a ceasefire since any cessation of hostilities is advantageous to the defending side, even if it only stops the attackers for a short while as that allows the defenders to reinforce and dig in.
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Oct 19, 2020 11:15
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icantfindaname posted:Frankly though even if the war ended tomorrow with territory as is this should be considered a disastrous misplay by AM over the last 20 years. AM is cash strapped but it still doesn’t seem like a total war scenario was fully planned or prepared for. Why do they still have like 1940s Soviet flak cannons for AA? Why don’t they have a pile of ballistic missiles aimed at AZ pipelines and other targets like Iran with clearly expressed red lines on when they would use them? I guess it’s a small country and they’re hard to hide? Failing that, why not just have given up the clearly indefensible, uninhabited bits they’ve lost now 20 years ago? It seems like they thought they won the first war and that AZ are cave dwellers who could never beat them, so don’t bother. I think they underestimated the ability of AZ to use their drones to the effect they have. Obviously, the S300 are stationed right inside the original AM/AZ borders and could theoretically protect all of Karabakh. Further, AM in general has a huge amount of air defense. I think before the conflict everyone would assume that no one could really make use of aircraft efficiently, which would put AM at a huge advantage. Nevertheless, AZ seems to be bombing the hell out of AM positions with, frankly, very high precision. If you look at the videos, you can see that they even shoot rockets exactly inside the entrances of the bunkers and at the exact positions in trenches that are exposed. Not sure how many drones AM actually shot down (the claim of hundreds of drones seems to be exaggerated given that only a handful of photos of wrecked drones exist, same with the claim that they destroyed 500 AZ tanks), however it doesn't seem like the S300 and co really help. In addition, one set of S300 has now been destroyed somehow. On the other hand, AM's Soviet artillery has yet to hit anything except civilian buildings. Pipelines are also still intact, even though they are the most obvious target. That makes me think that they have really low precision such that it isn't even worthwhile to do anything but randomly shoot into Ganja or surrounding villages. I think AZ will still have a hard time making gains on the ground, and I think they will try to encircle the region and starve them out. If they can keep up the drone warfare with impunity, AM is really in trouble.
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Oct 19, 2020 11:49
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So they seem to have taken a few shots in the directions of pipelines, but I don't think Armenia's making a concerted effort to hit them, because actually loving up the pipelines dramatically increases the risk of Turkey openly intervening, as well as immediately switching a lot of the international sympathy for Armenia (which, to be fair, hasn't amounted to much) into condemnation and alarm.
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Oct 19, 2020 13:25
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Yadoppsi posted:Its amazing how Trumpian accusations of Fake News have spread up and down the political spectrum. No attempt to rebut the facts, no interrogation of the reporting. Just spit out a thought-terminating cliche and feel smug satisfaction with one's unexamined position. It's not a "Trumpian accusation", it's a statement of an obvious truth that's been evident for years.
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Oct 19, 2020 15:47
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As I understand it, Azerbaijan has refrained from striking within the borders of Armenia. Wouldn't that have to necessarily change should Azerbaijan restore its internationally recognized borders? I doubt Armenia would accept defeat and pack up. Would it not be likely in that situation that the fight spills into Armenia proper and possibly invoke the defense pact Russia has with Armenia? Would Russia be happy to oblige with that pretext fulfilled?
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Oct 19, 2020 18:42
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Rip Testes posted:As I understand it, Azerbaijan has refrained from striking within the borders of Armenia. Wouldn't that have to necessarily change should Azerbaijan restore its internationally recognized borders? I doubt Armenia would accept defeat and pack up. Would it not be likely in that situation that the fight spills into Armenia proper and possibly invoke the defense pact Russia has with Armenia? Would Russia be happy to oblige with that pretext fulfilled? I don't see things progressing this far, since I still think some sort of cease fire and return to the negotiating table is the most likely outcome, but if Azerbaijan did ultimately prevail by force, I think Armenia would be forced to admit defeat and withdraw (presumably alongside a major reshuffling of their government) long before it got to the point of Azerbaijan physically conquering the entire territory. I don't see Azerbaijan engaging in any sustained action against Armenia proper in any case, though Armenian assets engaged in hostilities would generally be considered fair game by the "rules" for these sorts of things. Obviously that's not always how it plays out, so stronger countries like Russia and Israel can launch attacks from their territory without any real fear of reprisal, but Armenia doesn't get to conveniently use that sort of thing as one weird trick to draw Russia into a conflict unless Russia wants to be involved. If Russia was willing to let things progress to that extent, I think they'd be way more likely to support factions of the Armenian government who'd sue for peace than they would be to want to intervene after the conflict was already lost. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:11 on Oct 19, 2020 |
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Oct 19, 2020 22:09
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Azeri drones have been blowing the poo poo out of Armenian/Artsakh air defences pretty much with impunity, including S300s. About as useful as Syria's air defence network it seems.
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Oct 20, 2020 00:14
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Yadoppsi posted:Its amazing how Trumpian accusations of Fake News have spread up and down the political spectrum. No attempt to rebut the facts, no interrogation of the reporting. Just spit out a thought-terminating cliche and feel smug satisfaction with one's unexamined position. Okay you're right, Assad did nothing wrong. Why dont you go visit syria and hop on a train to damascus and then let us know how its all going in a few years
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Oct 20, 2020 00:26
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Radio Prune posted:Azeri drones have been blowing the poo poo out of Armenian/Artsakh air defences pretty much with impunity, including S300s. About as useful as Syria's air defence network it seems. I haven't paid much attention to the battle footage: do you know if there is video of the S300s being knocked out?
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Oct 20, 2020 12:13
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Rip Testes posted:As I understand it, Azerbaijan has refrained from striking within the borders of Armenia. Wouldn't that have to necessarily change should Azerbaijan restore its internationally recognized borders? I doubt Armenia would accept defeat and pack up. Would it not be likely in that situation that the fight spills into Armenia proper and possibly invoke the defense pact Russia has with Armenia? Would Russia be happy to oblige with that pretext fulfilled? There is no indication AZ has any interest in Armenia itself. Their whole casus belli is that Armenia is occupying Azeri territory. I am 99% sure they will stop at the border if they make it there and fortify it. Indeed, given how difficult it will be to occupy the central territory, I think their main goal is simply to encircle it and then go for diplomacy. Count Roland posted:I haven't paid much attention to the battle footage: do you know if there is video of the S300s being knocked out? Yes there is, check the AZ youtube account or the livemap posted earlier itt. AZ now claims to have destroyed four more S300 systems, albeit without footage.
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Oct 20, 2020 13:11
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Rip Testes posted:As I understand it, Azerbaijan has refrained from striking within the borders of Armenia. They have struck targets in the internationally-recognized territory of Armenia. But they have not attempted to occupy or invade it, just destroying some military objectives. Invading Armenia is more of a job for Turkey later down the line anyway.
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Oct 20, 2020 13:37
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Cat Mattress posted:They have struck targets in the internationally-recognized territory of Armenia. But they have not attempted to occupy or invade it, just destroying some military objectives. Only the S300, right? I could imagine that they'd want to invade a corridor towards Turkey and their exclave. However, the risk/reward of attacking Armenia proper doesn't really play out.
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Oct 20, 2020 14:08
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Haramstufe Rot posted:Only the S300, right? I don't see that happening, because as you note the risks outweigh the rewards. Pretty sure they're going to try to completely roll up the area inside their recognized borders if at all possible, though, and do the intentional depopulation of civilians thing that been in vogue lately to ensure continuing control. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Oct 20, 2020 |
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Oct 20, 2020 15:38
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I'd be pretty surprised if the Russians aren't quietly offering Armenia technical assistance in trying to figure out a way to counter Turkey's drones. It would obviously be beneficial to Russia to figure out ways to counter them, especially since the drone swarm was so effective in Syria, arguably to the extent that Russia is a lot more wary of conflict with Turkey than they were before Turkey demonstrated those capabilities earlier this year. Obviously Russia could still paste Turkey in an all out war (even leaving nuclear weapons entirely out of it), but losing tactical advantage to a neighbor with homegrown capabilities outpacing Russia's own in a new style of warfare is still a concern. Even aside from the potential for a direction conflict between Russia and Turkey, which still seems remote despite multiple ongoing areas of tension, developing new methods of countering drone attacks is obviously going to be a lucrative aspect of arms dealing going forward.
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Oct 20, 2020 18:02
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Count Roland posted:I haven't paid much attention to the battle footage: do you know if there is video of the S300s being knocked out? Yes, they released video of the attack on an S-300 battery. https://twitter.com/i/status/1317384625702928385 Keep in mind this is not necessarily a drone hitting them. Could also be the result of air launched or ballistic missiles.
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Oct 20, 2020 19:06
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Russian flags and/or troops are going up on the border between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia in the south of the province to warn off the Azeri advance as it continues to push west. The province is very narrow at that point, so it's admittedly not a heroic push to the border through huge chunks of territory, but if this is what winning looks like on defense for Armenia, I'd hate to see what losing would look like.
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Oct 20, 2020 20:22
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Sinteres posted:Russian flags and/or troops are going up on the border between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia in the south of the province to warn off the Azeri advance as it continues to push west. The province is very narrow at that point, so it's admittedly not a heroic push to the border through huge chunks of territory, but if this is what winning looks like on defense for Armenia, I'd hate to see what losing would look like. Btw the Azerbaijanis are pushing in that direction because they have failed to actually penetrate Armenian defenses in the highlands and now they are trying to snake around, but at the same time they are exposing a huge amount of there flank to an Armenian counter-attack. They mostly have gotten a handful of abandon villages and dust for their effort so far.
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Oct 20, 2020 21:52
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Wait the Russians are putting boots on the ground after all? What took you so long compared to Ossetia, O' Putin?
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Oct 21, 2020 01:42
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At least america's staying out for the moment Heh...
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Oct 21, 2020 02:00
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Looking at the satellite view of the towns Azerbaijan has claimed to recapture. Depressingly a lot of ghost towns. Found an interesting video showcasing Azerbaijan's military might. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2Aka7kOhTI
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Oct 21, 2020 04:15
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Ardennes posted:Btw the Azerbaijanis are pushing in that direction because they have failed to actually penetrate Armenian defenses in the highlands and now they are trying to snake around, but at the same time they are exposing a huge amount of there flank to an Armenian counter-attack. They mostly have gotten a handful of abandon villages and dust for their effort so far. It seems likely enough that this was basically the plan from the beginning. Capture Jebrayl, Fizuli, and the Iranian border to threaten Lachin, then negotiate. Depending on what the true AZ casualties have been they might have decided to leave it at that
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Oct 21, 2020 04:18
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Grouchio posted:Wait the Russians are putting boots on the ground after all? What took you so long compared to Ossetia, O' Putin? It's further out of his sphere of interest and he would prefer to keep playing both sides. Compare that to Georgia, which is directly in his sphere of interest and which he actively wanted to make an example of. Classic Great Power stuff.
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Oct 21, 2020 10:56
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I don't think an Armenian counter attack is possible at all with the level of air superiority they're facing. They should get absolutely massacred if they tried to move out of cover. Unless maybe the Azeris are running low on munitions, which is possible. Always tempting to buy hundreds of tanks/planes/guns and skimp on the ammo and spares.
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Oct 21, 2020 17:06
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aphid_licker posted:I don't think an Armenian counter attack is possible at all with the level of air superiority they're facing. They should get absolutely massacred if they tried to move out of cover. Unless maybe the Azeris are running low on munitions, which is possible. Always tempting to buy hundreds of tanks/planes/guns and skimp on the ammo and spares. From what I gathered on the news stream posted by https://caucasus.liveuamap.com/, that is exactly what happened. The Armenians announced a counterattack, and then the Azeris soon posted a new series of drone footage destroying a large amount of Armenian military hardware. It also appears that the Azeris are starting to make some limited progress into more mountainous terrain.
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Oct 21, 2020 17:19
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What we really need to understand here is that every single thing that Azerbaijan takes away / destroys of the Armenian military force those numbers aren't going to be replaced. Whereas Azerbaijan may be losing military equipment at a one-to-one ratio compared to Armenia however due to a 5:1 economic advantage Azerbaijan will be able to replace those losses and Armenia alone won't be able to.
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Oct 21, 2020 20:07
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