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Seven Hundred Bee posted:no, low turnout dooms trump. Heh, so low turnout dooms him and high turnout might doom him? I am not seeing many options here. Which I guess is what the polls have been saying for a long time now.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:34
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Antillie posted:So low turnout tomorrow will probably help Biden, this make sense to me. Texas has already beaten it's 2016 vote total in early votes alone, largely because of a massive surge in blue cities and surrounding suburbs. If exactly 0 votes were cast tomorrow, the chances of Biden having won Texas would skyrocket.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:34
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Antillie posted:Heh, so low turnout dooms him and high turnout might doom him? I am not seeing many options here. Which I guess is what the polls have been saying for a long time now. high turnout of solely white, non college educated men will help him. think of it this way: we know people who voted biden are fare more likely to vote early 100 mil people voted early the democratic party has already banked many of the votes it need. the republican party likely has not - and if some of the worst case scenarios are true, early voting republicans by party ID are defecting at 10-15%.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:35
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Here's my map just to have it on record
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Nov 3, 2020 04:39
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:high turnout of solely white, non college educated men will help him. The only number I ever saw for this was 6%. If its 10%+ I think a blue Texas is almost certain.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:40
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Antillie posted:The only number I ever saw for this was 6%. If its 10%+ I think a blue Texas is almost certain. 6% gain (because biden does lose some voters) on the low end. blue texas is trickier because it does rely on generally better democratic turnout than normal, but we do have many indications that thats the case...
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Nov 3, 2020 04:42
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:6% gain (because biden does lose some voters) on the low end. Well then. 
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Nov 3, 2020 04:44
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwVJ7FWc4rQ Looking at overconfident maps is giving me anxiety. Don't think I'm gonna sleep well tonight. 🤞 I guess.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:47
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Sanguinia posted:The next two days are going to be a special hell for me as a social studies teacher. Turn on the news. Take nips from a discreet flask hidden in your top drawer while streaming West Wing on your phone.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:49
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Seven Hundred Bee posted:let me put it this way: 100 million people have voted already and estimates of the aggregate distribution range from 70/30 biden/trump to 60/40 at worse. trump needs huge turnout solely amongst his voters. The silent majority are going to hold history's biggest MAGA rally tomorrow across the nation, and then we'll see. Then we'll all see. Biden still wins because even if 50 million people show up tomorrow, they've got to significantly outpace a 60/40 split since that's just 1/3 of the vote.
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Nov 3, 2020 04:57
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Antillie posted:Well then. buddy you can't just post references to this movie a couple days after Captain Ramius dies 
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Nov 3, 2020 04:59
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He's consistent. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323471421721464832 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323470806240927745 Those cursed Wealthy Liberal Hypocrites! oops I posted this in the wrong thread. Thread relevant content: every Trump supporter knows that they will never care about another politician as much as they care about Trump. He's their loving cult leader and they will do crazy things tomorrow and after. I don't know what exactly. Wilbur Swain fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Nov 3, 2020 |
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Nov 3, 2020 05:01
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FBS posted:buddy you can't just post references to this movie a couple days after Captain Ramius dies 0/10, didn't refer to him as the "Vilnius Schoolmaster."
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Nov 3, 2020 05:04
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I legit don't even know what I'm feeling right now.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:08
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SalTheBard posted:I legit don't even know what I'm feeling right now. Me IRL 
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Nov 3, 2020 05:11
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LegendaryFrog posted:For a dissenting opinion... "serious data analyst" gummi is going with this. I mean, you can't discount virus skeptics as a barometer of public opinion, because unfortunately there are plenty of virus skeptics out there but on the other hand they're real fuckin stupid, so I'm not going to put a lot of stock into their predictions
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Nov 3, 2020 05:11
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I feel the weight of evidence suggesting cautious optimism ramming face-first into the anti optimism instinct that's been drilled irrevocably into my brain by the past year, and the resulting feeling is very uncomfortable
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Nov 3, 2020 05:11
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OK. If the rust belt holds (WI/MI/MN) then Biden just needs one of the following to win: AZ/FL/GA/NC/PA/TX Any one of those and Biden should squeak it out (or more, obv, for the bigger ones). Trump needs all of them. So...hopefully by 9PM EST we'll have an answer re: NC, GA, or FL. PA is gonna be a slog, most likely.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:11
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OAquinas posted:OK. If the rust belt holds (WI/MI/MN) then Biden just needs one of the following to win: AZ/FL/GA/NC/PA/TX If Biden takes TX he is not squeaking it out, he is rewriting the national political landscape for the next decade at least.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:14
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SalTheBard posted:I legit don't even know what I'm feeling right now. it's called 'hope'. i understand if it feels strange and unfamiliar
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Nov 3, 2020 05:21
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Antillie posted:If Biden takes TX he is not squeaking it out, he is rewriting the national political landscape for the next decade at least. Complete disagreement here. Whatever unusual gains Biden makes will be written-off as people wanting to be rid of Trump until the Democrats sustains them at the 2022 midterms.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:25
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Aramis posted:Complete disagreement here. Whatever unusual gains Biden makes will be written-off as people wanting to be rid of Trump until the Democrats sustains them at the 2022 midterms. It's a census year, so whoever holds state legislatures gets to draw new districts and literally rewrite the map. Breaking Republican gerrymanders means that those gains will be much more durable.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:29
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Aramis posted:Complete disagreement here. Whatever unusual gains Biden makes will be written-off as people wanting to be rid of Trump until the Democrats sustains them at the 2022 midterms. Maybe, but if Biden carries the Texas House then it will break 18 years of painstaking gerrymandering in the second most populous state in the nation. And there is no way that won't impact the 2022 midterms. Antillie fucked around with this message at 05:31 on Nov 3, 2020 |
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Nov 3, 2020 05:29
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Antillie posted:If Biden takes TX he is not squeaking it out, he is rewriting the national political landscape for the next decade at least. Oh, quite. TX is kind of a "if he wins that he's almost guaranteed to be winning one of the other ones" but I'm including it for completeness. Remember: assuming WI/MI hold, if/when one of the 6 goes blue you're free to exhale and collapse into your chair.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:32
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LeeMajors posted:0/10, didn't refer to him as the "Vilnius Schoolmaster." Antillie posted:Maybe, but if Biden carries the Texas House then it will break 18 years of painstaking gerrymandering in the second most populous state in the nation. And there is no way that won't impact the 2022 midterms. vvv Expressing caution at declaring eternal victory while ignoring the generally-observed trend in midterm voting (party in charge loses seats) is hardly panicking. Zero_Grade fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Nov 3, 2020 |
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Nov 3, 2020 05:34
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Zero_Grade posted:I think the issue is, not just in TX but most states, will it matter enough in the face of a midterm election. Trying to even IMAGINE the next midterm right now is an incredibly useless exercise. We don't even know what the board is going to look like, so how can we project two years of gameplay forward? Even if you start panickedly presuming that the Pendulum MUST swing back literally at the very next possible opportunity, it could swing back an INCH as easily as a mile. Thats one reason why running up the score in the House is just as important as winning the Senate.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:44
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Antillie posted:Maybe, but if Biden carries the Texas House then it will break 18 years of painstaking gerrymandering in the second most populous state in the nation. And there is no way that won't impact the 2022 midterms. Honestly, I've seen all the bullshit from the outgoing Republicans who lose in elections in other states (PA, WI, MI). It would not surprise me in the slightest if an outgoing republican Texas legislature, in its lame duck session, tried to pass a bill that surrendered the House's ability to affect the districting process.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:it's called 'hope'. i understand if it feels strange and unfamiliar No, I refuse to fall into your trap. as much as I want to.
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Nov 3, 2020 05:52
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GreyjoyBastard posted:it's called 'hope'. i understand if it feels strange and unfamiliar I appreciate your optimism brother and/or sister. I just feel so goddamn on edge after 2016 that I don't even want to give myself even a little bit of hope.
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Nov 3, 2020 06:01
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Dixville Notch let’s do this!
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Nov 3, 2020 06:01
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hold onto your butts
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Nov 3, 2020 06:02
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When do we get Notch results??
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Nov 3, 2020 06:03
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Nov 3, 2020 06:03
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I'm here to die.
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Nov 3, 2020 06:04
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This is the election. And its ending, one second at a time.
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Nov 3, 2020 06:06
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Nov 3, 2020 06:06
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The in-person turnout for the 2020 election has plummeted by more than 50% since 2016, according to these Dixville Notch results. So much for that election day republican surge! Edit: Biden sweeped. Won unanimously in Dixville Notch.
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Nov 3, 2020 06:07
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Handsome Ralph posted:Tom Friedman's brainworms are terminal at this point. All those times the Republicans compromised with Obama.
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Nov 3, 2020 06:08
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I would like to request a thread rule that all pictures posted here must include the use of googly eyes (or a close approximation).
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Nov 3, 2020 06:10
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i watched a live stream of dixville but it was too quiet or blurry to even understand who won so awesome. hope it's not an omen. edit: biden 5 trump 0 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
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Nov 3, 2020 06:12
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