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Vernii
Dec 7, 2006

AhhYes posted:

Also party ID isn't a very good predictor of how they'll vote. Not only is this expected, it doesn't tell us much as far as outcomes go.

Eh the number of defections will likely be lower among Republicans today since there's a higher chance these are his base voters following his message to wait.

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Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018
Women are wonderful animals, they should be making music and writing novels about having a complex relationship with your mother.

Why would British people care so much about American politics? You've got your own politics, and even that stuff doesn't matter that much because you know the queen was chosen by god.

Darko
Dec 23, 2004

Vernii posted:

Eh the number of defections will likely be lower among Republicans today since there's a higher chance these are his base voters following his message to wait.

Yeah, I think that the vast majority of people that wait to vote aren't going to be the type of people (suburban professionals) that are likely to deflect for him in the (registered) Republican Party.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

Gripweed posted:

Why would British people care so much about American politics? You've got your own politics, and even that stuff doesn't matter that much because you know the queen was chosen by god.

Did you notice that our PM is basically a clone of Trump and that Nigel Farage is up on stage with your President as often as he can manage

US politics are world politics

Gripweed
Nov 8, 2018
Women are wonderful animals, they should be making music and writing novels about having a complex relationship with your mother.

Gort posted:

Did you notice that our PM is basically a clone of Trump and that Nigel Farage is up on stage with your President as often as he can manage

US politics are world politics

Your PM was the mayor of London years before Trump entered politics. You can't blame us for Johnson, that's all you.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

Gripweed posted:

Your PM was the mayor of London years before Trump entered politics. You can't blame us for Johnson, that's all you.

Funded by the same people my dude

Fascists

RumbleFish
Dec 20, 2007

Technowrite posted:

One good thing tonight is that my fiancée has already pledged to provide election night pizza.

Definitely a keeper!

TyrantWD
Nov 6, 2010
Ignore my doomerism, I don't think better things are possible

Darko posted:

Yeah, I think that the vast majority of people that wait to vote aren't going to be the type of people (suburban professionals) that are likely to deflect for him in the (registered) Republican Party.

I don't think FL polling showed much difference in defections anyway. Biden's retention was 90-6, and Trump's was 89-7.

Kalit
Nov 6, 2006

The great thing about the thousands of slaughtered Palestinian children is that they can't pull away when you fondle them or sniff their hair.

That's a Biden success story.

Gort posted:

Did you notice that our PM is basically a clone of Trump and that Nigel Farage is up on stage with your President as often as he can manage

US politics are world politics

Johnson can't be a clone of Trump: Boris Johnson accused of 'giving in to scientific advisers' as England heads for lockdown

OwlFancier
Aug 22, 2013

Gripweed posted:

Your PM was the mayor of London years before Trump entered politics. You can't blame us for Johnson, that's all you.

If you want a specific reason then Biden refusing to do a trade deal with Boris because of the Good Friday Agreement is probably our best hope for not utterly loving the country by trying to cut off all trade with the EU. If the US is hostile to the UK it increases the probabilty that the UK will concede to the EU, which is probably better for those of us living here.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







this is five minutes after a polling place opened in west knoxville. Lines out the school and around the parking lot. This county went trump 61% in 2020.

https://twitter.com/FizFashizzle/status/1323612718981591041?s=20

Random Stranger
Nov 27, 2009



I have cast my ballot in my location where my vote doesn't matter. I was asked to keep it down when I shouted, "From hell's heart I stab at thee!" when voting for Biden.

John Wick of Dogs
Mar 4, 2017

A real hellraiser


FizFashizzle posted:

this is five minutes after a polling place opened in west knoxville. Lines out the school and around the parking lot. This county went trump 61% in 2020.

https://twitter.com/FizFashizzle/status/1323612718981591041?s=20

Tennessee I assume or is there other Knoxville?

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

FizFashizzle posted:

this is five minutes after a polling place opened in west knoxville. Lines out the school and around the parking lot. This county went trump 61% in 2020.

https://twitter.com/FizFashizzle/status/1323612718981591041?s=20

Lines are gonna look/feel a lot longer this year due to social distancing, too.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







John Wick of Dogs posted:

Tennessee I assume or is there other Knoxville?

Please god we don't need more than one knoxville.

GF got there 30 minutes early and was 23rd. By 8, there were about 150 people in line. GF was out by 8:25.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
Voted. Got there at 7, got out at 830.

nah
Mar 16, 2009

Voted weeks ago but drove by my votin’ spot and it was the busiest it’s ever been. Usually it’s a real quick and easy vote

bowmore
Oct 6, 2008



Lipstick Apathy
About to go to bed in Aus, I hope Biden is doing well when I wake up.

I put $190 on Biden to win @$1.53.

Gort
Aug 18, 2003

Good day what ho cup of tea

Residency Evil posted:

Voted. Got there at 7, got out at 830.

Christ, US voting is shoddy as gently caress. I don't think I've ever been at a polling place longer than five minutes.

Saxophone
Sep 19, 2006


Gort posted:

Christ, US voting is shoddy as gently caress. I don't think I've ever been at a polling place longer than five minutes.

Voter suppression!

Oy.

vyelkin
Jan 2, 2011

Gripweed posted:

Why would British people care so much about American politics? You've got your own politics, and even that stuff doesn't matter that much because you know the queen was chosen by god.

Everyone around the world has to care about US politics because US politics determines whether we live or die even though we don't get a say in it.

Forums Medic
Oct 2, 2010

i be out there in orbit
according to my dad, Trump is a lock unless the democrats steal the election lol

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

Residency Evil posted:

Voted. Got there at 7, got out at 830.

Got there at 7:30, got out by 7:45 or so. Chatted with one of the poll workers who said that earlier the line had been twice as long. It was honestly kind of impressive how well it was run, but they weren't handing out any stickers. :(

vyelkin posted:

Everyone around the world has to care about US politics because US politics determines whether we live or die even though we don't get a say in it.

I've heard it said of Canada that sharing a border with the US is like sharing a bed with an elephant: it twitches, you fall out. These days the whole world is Canada.

IUG
Jul 14, 2007


My wife and I voted absentee in CT. According to the website to verify, our vote was taken on the 5th and registered on the 6th.

EDIT: Also had no stickers.

Romes128
Dec 28, 2008


Fun Shoe

Forums Medic posted:

according to my dad, Trump is a lock unless the democrats steal the election lol

Oh hey your dad is a fuckin idiot.

Like my dad.

Forums Medic
Oct 2, 2010

i be out there in orbit
when you watch mark dice it's only a matter of time until you go full q

Wylie
Jun 27, 2005

Ever to conquer, never to yield.


I'm in line at my usual voting place, which is some loving news in and of itself. There's never a line here. People are lined up out of the church, out to the street, and then down that street..

BiggerBoat
Sep 26, 2007

Don't you tell me my business again.
I know this is the election TVIV thread but can I suggest we at least make it so people have to post more than "I voted!" and "+1 in VA!" all day and night?

Because it's already going to be an insanely long thread with a lot of white noise and that sort of thing gets tedious.

I mean, at least add some anecdotal element to it about the lines, the vibe or what have you. Crazy poo poo you saw or whatever.

Just a suggestion.

B B
Dec 1, 2005

Someone appears to have taken a box cutter to every Biden/Harris and "Vote Democrats!" sign on my street last night. Yeah, that'll do it!

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

B B posted:

Someone appears to have taken a box cutter to every Biden/Harris and "Vote Democrats!" sign on my street last night. Yeah, that'll do it!

Your gang tag makes you the number one suspect! :)

RodShaft
Jul 31, 2003
Like an evil horny Santa Claus.


Romes128 posted:

Oh hey your dad is a fuckin idiot.

Like my dad.

Woah, easy. Maybe his dad is just voting a lot.

Inglonias
Mar 7, 2013

I WILL PUT THIS FLAG ON FREAKING EVERYTHING BECAUSE IT IS SYMBOLIC AS HELL SOMEHOW

If for some reason you want to give yourself a panic attack again, the (in)famous NYTimes Needle has returned.

So, uh... That's great.

Not gonna lie, I forgot about the Needle, and even thinking about it stresses me out massively.

Sarcastro
Dec 28, 2000
Elite member of the Grammar Nazi Squad that

Forums Medic posted:

when you watch mark dice it's only a matter of time until you go full q

A fun recurring prank you can play on your dad is to sneak up behind him holding a pillow at both ends, then when he turns around nonchalantly hide it behind your back and whistle.

Silly Burrito
Nov 27, 2007

SET A COURSE FOR
THE FLAVOR QUADRANT

Random Stranger posted:

I have cast my ballot in my location where my vote doesn't matter. I was asked to keep it down when I shouted, "From hell's heart I stab at thee!" when voting for Biden.

I imagine it went something exactly like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA4CqfmLZsw&t=64s

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Inglonias posted:

If for some reason you want to give yourself a panic attack again, the (in)famous NYTimes Needle has returned.

So, uh... That's great.

Not gonna lie, I forgot about the Needle, and even thinking about it stresses me out massively.

It's even worse now actually, they have 3 needles to watch, as you go cross-eyed and pass out from anxiety

IUG
Jul 14, 2007


BiggerBoat posted:

I know this is the election TVIV thread but can I suggest we at least make it so people have to post more than "I voted!" and "+1 in VA!" all day and night?

Because it's already going to be an insanely long thread with a lot of white noise and that sort of thing gets tedious.

I mean, at least add some anecdotal element to it about the lines, the vibe or what have you. Crazy poo poo you saw or whatever.

Just a suggestion.

I was just mentioning my vote as someone said voting sucks and is backwards in America. At least Connecticut gave out the forms to request absentee ballots to every voter, and let them get them ready to count almost a month in advance. Some states don't suck for voting!

Solaris 2.0
May 14, 2008

Goddamn it my anxiety is rising - today is the only day I’m happy to have a ton of work before my 1pm early release.

Will tie myself to Disney + and my phone after

DutchDupe
Dec 25, 2013

How does the kitty cat go?

...meow?

Very gooood.

Silly Burrito posted:

I imagine it went something exactly like this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hA4CqfmLZsw&t=64s

Great reference

RodShaft
Jul 31, 2003
Like an evil horny Santa Claus.


B B posted:

Someone appears to have taken a box cutter to every Biden/Harris and "Vote Democrats!" sign on my street last night. Yeah, that'll do it!

Our local Democrats and Republicans will give you $1,000 if you catch a vandal on camera and it leads to an arrest.

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Paracaidas
Sep 24, 2016
Consistently Tedious!
One of the things I'm watching for tonight is Paula Jean Swearingen in West Virgina. After getting curbstomped in her longshot primary bid against Manchin, she beat out Trump Voter Ojeda and generic milquetoast Dem I can't be bothered to remember this year to be the nominee to face Capito. This is as close to a direct test of the theory that lefty populism will out run centrist succdems in a heavily Republican, heavily WWC state. From a much earlier post of mine in Polliwanks:

Paracaidas posted:

Paula Jean Swearingen is running in West Virginia, on a platform including free college, MFA, strong environmental reform, and a $15 minimum wage. Her opponent is an incumbent who Morning Consult has below 50% approval and who local news had trailing Trump's approval among WV Republicans by 17% last year.

For comparison: After easily beating Swearingen in the primaries, Manchin won by 3% in 2018 while Dems got swept in the House races, losing the popular vote by 18%.

The 3 things to watch on election night:
  1. How close does she come to Manchin's 49.6%? It'd be great if she topped it, but that would be an absolute stunner.
  2. Does she outrun Biden? West Virginia loves it some Trump, markedly more than it likes Capito. It has repeatedly shown a willingness to vote for (lovely) Dems in statewide races and Bernie handily won the Dem primary in 2016. If she's unable to outrun Biden, the theory keeps moving to shakier ground. I expect her to pull this off.
  3. What is the popular vote split in the House? This will help a bit to normalize against Manchin's run in 2018. Losing 55-45 in a year that sees the GOP house margin swell to the 30s is actually a pretty positive result out of a loss for Swearingen and for the theory. The same margin if the house tightens compared to 2018 is some dire poo poo.
Swearingen doesn't need to win in order to lend credence to the argument... but there are still ways a loss can hurt. Something nerdy on the east coast to keep an eye on while you wait for more important news.

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