|
Celexi posted:All the methods polling is done are flawed in 2020 and pollsters are basically world of warcraft shamans in predicting the future.
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 08:44 |
|
|
mango sentinel posted:Also what the gently caress happened with polling this time? Fivethirtyeight estimated a 3% systemic error with Clinton, but even factoring that, projected commanding victories in WI, MN, & MI that did not happen. Once all the votes are in Biden will have won by +4 or 5 and in four years people will be looking back going, "Well, it was within the margin of error." They absolutely whiffed on WI, MI but MN is Biden > +7 and again within the margin of error. Shell shocked vets of the 2020 pundit wars will just automatically nudge all predictions to their worst case error bars.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:41
|
|
Ashmole posted:We are still hosed though. Chuds are going to claim this is illegitimate. Good for them? They cant do anything about it
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:41
|
|
|
Hey guy, here at 538 we tabulated every single poll and fed it to our super-precise analytic model running in a cluster of super computers to do 4,000 simulation in order to be able to predict the outcome of the election and... wait... a single one of those 4,000 is close to what is actually happening? drat! We nailed it! (Proceeds to bet on red, black, and green at the roulette table).
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:42
|
|
|
Ashmole posted:We are still hosed though. Chuds are going to claim this is illegitimate. They were literally never going to do anything else, regardless of the outcome
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:43
|
|
|
Murgos posted:It took out Jeff Davis for the unified championship. But, he really just stole the move from Winfield Scott. The Cooperhead stable really scared Lincoln's reign on top of the company though.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:43
|
|
|
Sampatrick posted:Trump outspent Biden by 40 million on digital ads. What we're really seeing is that Biden's massive outspend on TV ads was completely ineffectual at accomplishing anything. This is interesting cause as a point, all day yesterday I saw trump ads on YouTube.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:43
|
|
|
Ashmole posted:We are still hosed though. Chuds are going to claim this is illegitimate. Then we will have the military escort the Trump admin out of The White House.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:44
|
|
|
Waking up to a very likely GOP senate and just feeling absolutely dead at the prospect of having to deal with loving Mitchell McConnell's smug face for even longer How long is this old gently caress going to have a stranglehold on the country
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:44
|
|
|
I’m worried that the whispers I heard about Qanon capturing Florida Hispanic voters is real across the board
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:44
|
|
Toaster Beef posted:They were literally never going to do anything else, regardless of the outcome And as we have seen, crying bullshit for the last 4 years achieves gently caress all.
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:45
|
|
|
Assuming Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, in what way could Trump ‘take it to the Supreme Court?’ Even with a conservative majority, what could they possibly do?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:45
|
|
Burt Buckle posted:Assuming Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, in what way could Trump ‘take it to the Supreme Court?’ Even with a conservative majority, what could they possibly do? He cant, its just posturing to rile his base up
|
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:46
|
|
|
paternity suitor posted:I’m worried that the whispers I heard about Qanon capturing Florida Hispanic voters is real across the board If people are capable of believing the bible, they're capable of believing in Qanon.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:47
|
|
|
Some good news about PA https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/...ReporterUpdates Joe Biden has won absentee ballots counted in Pennsylvania by an overwhelming margin so far, according to data from the Secretary of State early Wednesday. If he carried the remaining absentee ballots by a similar margin, he would win the state.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:47
|
|
|
Burt Buckle posted:Assuming Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, in what way could Trump ‘take it to the Supreme Court?’ Even with a conservative majority, what could they possibly do? If they go full Calvinball maybe say something like you have to count by election day for votes to count?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:48
|
|
|
Failed Imagineer posted:DO SOMETHING! Like I don't know I just swear sometimes it feels like the various states election commissions, party operatives and various news agencies get together a few weeks ahead of the election to look at what states are most likely to be tipping point states and all reach a gentleman's agreement to have those states count their votes the slowest or in lopsided (by district) ways to ensure maximum "stay tuned to your screen it's a horserace ladies and gentleman" 24 hour news programming where it's dead even for as long as can possibly be maintained. This year Florida wasn't expected to be a tipping point state and Pennsylvania was instead so Florida goes in for Trump early to keep the numbers as close to dead even in the electoral vote tally as possible and Pennsylvania takes forever with a big Trump lead for Biden to try to overcome before teasing a blue shift to Biden based on it being mostly Democrat strongholds to count and all of this for as much of the counting process as possible to keep people in suspense and staying tuned or punching F5 on there keyboards. Again saying that's what it FEELS like basically every General Election since 2000 and just wholly appropriate for the social media age of Engage, Click, Like and Subscribe. I can't help but feel jerked around by the process a little waking up to this scenario and tons of uncertainty and Trump doing Trump things doesn't feel like a very expedient and Democratic process so what else is new. It also exponentially raises the chances of the feared election/post election day violence scenario. All the same still glad I did the unplug full nights sleep approach this year since I fully expected this if maybe not in a quite so on the nose fashion.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
The thing I'm taking away from the last 2 elections is simply that people aren't plugged in, and the right has a few very effective catch phrases that get people on their side. "I don't want my tax dollars to support a lazy mooch" for existing social programs, and "HOW WE GONNA PAY FOR IT?" for new social programs. They hide the fact that it's the rich that are the mooches and the MIC and endless wars are what we can't afford. All the laws that allow politicians to get rich are a huge part of the problem, but I think elimination of the fairness doctrine which allows "news" stations to lie right to your face has been even worse.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
nate fisher posted:Some good news about PA The projections to actual vote counts are shockingly close, which could bode well.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
Biden has received more votes than any presidential candidate in American history at this point, take that lefties 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:49
|
|
|
namelesstwo posted:This is interesting cause as a point, all day yesterday I saw trump ads on YouTube. Please stop watching Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro's shows. I watch wheel of fortune clips exclusively and it was all Biden, all the time.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:50
|
|
|
WI goon checking in, and I actually teared up seeing a map with the Great Lakes blue wall. Never thought I'd see it again.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:51
|
|
|
nate fisher posted:Some good news about PA Sounds like election fraud to me. 
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:51
|
|
|
WSJ has MI at 91% counted and Trump leading by 24,338. Is it over for Biden in MI?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:51
|
|
|
Burt Buckle posted:Assuming Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, in what way could Trump ‘take it to the Supreme Court?’ Even with a conservative majority, what could they possibly do? Even with the Supreme Court majority, they could only really push for a challenge if it came down to one state being a squeaker. Challenging four states’ results would be a hard sell.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
The Ol Spicy Keychain posted:WSJ has MI at 91% counted and Trump leading by 24,338. Is it over for Biden in MI? The remaining votes are in places like Wayne County, aka Detroit. Biden's the current favorite to win the state.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
Is it just me or are things looking fairly good for Biden in GA?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
trucutru posted:Please stop watching Tim Pool and Ben Shapiro's shows. Don’t really watch that stuff, but interesting .... Probably cause I’m a white guy in a high income district.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
trucutru posted:Hey guy, here at 538 we tabulated every single poll and fed it to our super-precise analytic model running in a cluster of super computers to do 4,000 simulation in order to be able to predict the outcome of the election and... wait... a single one of those 4,000 is close to what is actually happening? drat! We nailed it! (Proceeds to bet on red, black, and green at the roulette table). I feel bad for Nate. He gets a lot of crap because people don’t understand math and think 90% equals 100%.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
nate fisher posted:Some good news about PA Last I saw it was something like 78/20? So with Trump up 700,000 and so 1.4 million to count the final tally would Biden up ~200k? It would be nice if it holds.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:52
|
|
|
Antillie posted:Is it just me or are things looking fairly good for Biden in GA? It's going to be very close but yeah, it's a possible pickup for Biden.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:53
|
|
|
i think my biggest takeaway is that there is a fundamental incongruity between what the two parties consider to be 'political issues' (which reminds me of the great blog post about working with undecided voters from the kerry/bush race). i think assuming that everyone defines issues in the same way is missing the point - and applying a democratic framing to voters who don't think that way. paula jean swearenin just lost by 50 points and she is the prototypical candidate - running in a white, working class state which has horrific health care inequities and poverty with a campaign focused on M4A and labor issues... and got blow out. i think for a large portion of this country issues aren't things like 'health care' they're 'can i yell at my hispanic neighbor and not feel ashamed'
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:53
|
|
|
ghostwritingduck posted:I feel bad for Nate. He gets a lot of crap because people don’t understand math and think 90% equals 100%. People understand it well. They simply think that, given the results, its value is actually very limited.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:54
|
|
|
Once Wayne Co gets to around 90% votes reported that should be all she wrote for Trump in MI. After 2000 and 2016, it is time for one of these close elections to go the right way (which is actually the left way).
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:55
|
|
|
Antillie posted:Is it just me or are things looking fairly good for Biden in GA? Biting my nails over here but happy at least my households few votes helped Biden win Muscogee county. Also looks like we are heading to a Jan runoff for loeffler and warnock, which assuming Biden wins will serve as a bellwether for how many trump cultists come back home to the GOP once trump isn’t on the ticket and in office.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:55
|
|
|
ghostwritingduck posted:I feel bad for Nate. He gets a lot of crap because people don’t understand math and think 90% equals 100%. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ These elections be craaaazy! Am I right or what guys?
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:55
|
|
|
Pedro De Heredia posted:People understand it well. They simply think that, given the results, its value is actually very limited. In math seeing a series of random numbers from 1 to 10 come up with the same number three or four times in a row is expected. In elections seeing a <30% come in and then a less then 10% be razor thin has no real predictive benefit for looking into the future. "LOL well, it was a 1% chance and it happened" is useless.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:57
|
|
|
ghostwritingduck posted:I feel bad for Nate. He gets a lot of crap because people don’t understand math and think 90% equals 100%. No, actually, I don't feel bad for a guy who makes a living off of political astrology and education adjusted tea leaf readings.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:57
|
|
|
UncleButts posted:WI goon checking in, and I actually teared up seeing a map with the Great Lakes blue wall. Never thought I'd see it again. Sup fellow WI goon. I’m allowing myself to feel cautiously optimistic.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 5, 2024 08:44 |
|
|
Shere posted:No, actually, I don't feel bad for a guy who makes a living off of political astrology and education adjusted tea leaf readings. Well, what do you expect? There is only so much you can do with polling data to interpret it only so precisely. There is an enormous demand for interpreted polling data to be provided. It can only be so accurate, and that accuracy can never be even close to 100%. It just seems like you're getting mad that rainy days happen, or that life contains sorrow.
|
|
#
?
Nov 4, 2020 14:59
|
|
