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piL posted:What is Russia getting out of the deal? They also get credibility as a peacemaker/powerbroker. There's a lot of frozen, ongoing and potential conflicts in the former USSR. A Russian deal helps maintain its status vs the US and China, as well as the EU and minor powers. In the past the US would have absolutely played a role in resolving the conflict. The idea of Trump doing that is laughable. edit: typo Count Roland fucked around with this message at 01:15 on Nov 13, 2020 |
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Nov 12, 2020 21:23
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Typo posted:I doubt Putin personally care all that much but he has built himself up so much as defender of western civilization there are people whose opinion he has to care about who would care. Eh, not really a defender "Western" civilization but you could say Orthodox Christianity. Count Roland posted:They also get credibility as a peacemaker/powerbroker. There's a lot of frozen, ongoing and potential conflicts in the further USSR. A Russian deal helps maintain its status vs the US and China, as well as the EU and minor powers. Also it just gives them a greater footprint in a region and gives them leverage on Azerbaijan and makes it a bit more awkward to move toward a closer relationship with the West when you not only have Russian troops on your northern border but inside your country. Btw the US/Trump did try to get involved but their ceasefire like the previous Russian ceasefires fell apart and in the end, it was only Russia that could really have a durable peacekeeping presence there. I do think Biden will probably have a more "proactive" foreign policy but I think American foreign policy is going to be pretty constrained by the fact the world has changed significantly. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:06 on Nov 12, 2020 |
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Nov 12, 2020 21:33
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Ardennes posted:I do think Biden will probably have a more "proactive" foreign policy but I think American foreign policy is going to be pretty constrained by the fact the world has changed pretty significantly. That Donny boy gutted the state department will probably also mess with any american power projection.
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Nov 12, 2020 22:20
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Zudgemud posted:That Donny boy gutted the state department will probably also mess with any american power projection. Yeah much less other parts of the federal government and federal wages (for DC at least) are often not competitive enough for major expansion That said, there are pretty easy initial plays for Biden such as recording the Paris accords and ending the trade wars, but I really don't know if Biden or any American politician really has a plan for China (or Russia for that matter). There are issues like an extension to START which is going to require some type of cooperation with the Russians. Also, the resetting Iran deal is a bit too little too late. Iran may go for it again, but it is doubtful there will be any significant change of tenor between Washington and Tehran (from Iran's perspective (and for good reason) Washington is inheritably untrustworthy). Also, looking at Biden's foreign policy advisors so far, it looks like his attitude toward Latin America will not be that different than Trump's.
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Nov 12, 2020 23:16
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PittTheElder posted:Well I guess I wouldn't count civilians fleeing at the prospect of an Azerbaijani victory, unless they are actively oppressing the Armenians that did stay in some unusual way. Ethnic cleansing can also be pseudo voluntary. https://t.me/ArmenianVendetta/7130 quote:Жители села Дадиванк Карвачарского района сжигают свои дома, чтобы они не достались азербайджанцам. Residents of the village of Dadivank of the Karvacharsk region burn their homes to prevent them from going to Azerbaijanis.
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Nov 12, 2020 23:55
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Ethnically cleansing myself to own the lib(erator)s
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Nov 13, 2020 00:02
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Burning my house down to own azer demolition companies profits post occupation
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Nov 13, 2020 00:22
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Vasukhani posted:Ethnic cleansing can also be pseudo voluntary. Father Hovhannes of Artsakh's Dadivank Monastery to bring bells and cross to Armenia. I'm gonna side with the Azeris on this one.
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Nov 13, 2020 00:44
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Middle East Thread: Dearth to Armenia
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Nov 13, 2020 03:12
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Vasukhani posted:Ethnic cleansing isnt just the directly forced kind you saw in like Bosnia. People fleeing a conflict and then not coming back is ethnic cleansing. All the civilians left Artsakh and I doubt many will come back. It's really not as clear cut as that; I think ethnic cleansing, as opposed to population migration, requires intent on the part of the perpetrator or we really are defining these terms down into meaninglessness. Like if Azerbaijan was promising to kill every Armenian civilian left behind when they entered the territory, of course Armenians fleeing in advance of the Azeris' arrival would be victims of ethnic cleansing, but if Azerbaijan was just saying people who live in territory under their control will be required to obtain Azerbaijani citizenship, and ethnic Armenians prefer to remain Armenian citizens (or even leave because they fall prey to Armenian propaganda about brutal treatment they can expect under Azerbaijani rule), I don't think that qualifies even if everyone leaves. Of course there's some ambiguity between those two positions, where Armenians may well have rational concerns, and Azerbaijan may also have legitimate reasons to expel people from homes in some cases (say, for example, if they were homes Azeris lived in before their own expulsion by Armenians), so a lot of opinions about the culpability of Azerbaijan in this population movement will probably depend upon the legitimacy people think they have for initiating the war in the first place. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 13, 2020 15:10
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On the most recent Chapo they mentioned a theory, I think gleaned from "Family of Secrets" about the Bush family, that Saudi Arabia buys expensive, cutting edge American weapons not for the purpose of ever actually using them but as insurance to get American military assistance in case of civil war, because these high tech weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. I hadn't ever considered that but it makes good sense. In a sick way of course, that will inevitably bite us in the rear end one day when a rogue prince has finally had enough of MBS's heavy handed rule.
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Nov 14, 2020 06:31
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:On the most recent Chapo they mentioned a theory, I think gleaned from "Family of Secrets" about the Bush family, that Saudi Arabia buys expensive, cutting edge American weapons not for the purpose of ever actually using them but as insurance to get American military assistance in case of civil war, because these high tech weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. I mean oil hegemony is starting to fade for Saudi Arabia in terms of exporting to america specifically. so yeah i mean the oil lobby would be onboard with stopping a civil war in Sauydi arabia regardless
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Nov 14, 2020 06:35
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:I mean oil hegemony is starting to fade for Saudi Arabia in terms of exporting to america specifically. so yeah i mean the oil lobby would be onboard with stopping a civil war in Sauydi arabia regardless Btw that has had the side effect of the Saudis cooperating with the Russians which has allowed oil prices to stabilize to some extent.
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Nov 14, 2020 06:53
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Ardennes posted:Btw that has had the side effect of the Saudis cooperating with the Russians which has allowed oil prices to stabilize to some extent. Fairly tactical, because Saudi's can run with russia and russia can't gently caress with the country and sour the relationship because of the US being the backer of the saudi's.
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Nov 14, 2020 07:03
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:Fairly tactical, because Saudi's can run with russia and russia can't gently caress with the country and sour the relationship because of the US being the backer of the saudi's. It looks like US-Saudi relations are due to a fallout with Biden, who has proposed both pulling out of Yemen and restarting the Iran deal (after China signed a massive investment package).
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Nov 14, 2020 07:44
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Count Roland posted:They also get credibility as a peacemaker/powerbroker. There's a lot of frozen, ongoing and potential conflicts in the former USSR. A Russian deal helps maintain its status vs the US and China, as well as the EU and minor powers. Budzilla posted:Russia likes to control the "near abroad", making control around the Caucasus very important. If Russia isn't there then they will lose influence to Iran and Turkey. Flayer is right, Russia is the big winner out of this conflict and having a bunch of soldiers in Azerbaijan will keep other countries on notice. I just wanted to say thanks. I don't have much of a response, but that all makes sense.
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Nov 14, 2020 09:40
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:On the most recent Chapo they mentioned a theory, I think gleaned from "Family of Secrets" about the Bush family, that Saudi Arabia buys expensive, cutting edge American weapons not for the purpose of ever actually using them but as insurance to get American military assistance in case of civil war, because these high tech weapons could fall into the hands of terrorists. I mean, KSA has been actively using its fancy weapons in Yemen for a few years now. Pouring money into the US arms industry is also a good way to stay on the good side of the US. Not saying the civil war thing is wrong though. * Is there a thread to talk about Ethiopia? Its not ME by even the most stretched definitions but is adjacent to places that are. Count Roland fucked around with this message at 12:20 on Nov 14, 2020 |
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Nov 14, 2020 12:12
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Count Roland posted:I mean, KSA has been actively using its fancy weapons in Yemen for a few years now. Pouring money into the US arms industry is also a good way to stay on the good side of the US. Not saying the civil war thing is wrong though.
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Nov 14, 2020 12:17
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Thanks!
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Nov 14, 2020 12:20
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Budzilla posted:Father Hovhannes of Artsakh's Dadivank Monastery to bring bells and cross to Armenia. I'm gonna side with the Azeris on this one. Why? https://www.euronews.com/2020/11/14/nagorno-karabakh-ethnic-armenians-set-fire-to-their-homes-rather-than-hand-them-to-azerbai posted:A 13th-century monastery, sacred for Armenians, is also to be handed over as part of the deal. Like, why wouldn't they want to take their relics and objects of worship of their faith with them?
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Nov 14, 2020 14:19
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KazigluBey posted:Why?
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Nov 15, 2020 04:00
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Budzilla posted:These items have been in the same location of centuries and now they want them removed? Yeah, because the Azeris have a strong history of destroying Armenian things. Like demolishing a graveyard and turning it into a shooting range.
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Nov 15, 2020 04:10
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Xerxes17 posted:Yeah, because the Azeris have a strong history of destroying Armenian things. Like demolishing a graveyard and turning it into a shooting range. This is loving comedic if it wasn't so awful. Yes Zers have no problem bulldozing Armenian cultural sites like the west bank
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Nov 15, 2020 04:12
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Budzilla posted:These items have been in the same location of centuries and now they want them removed? I too love to scold people for taking their precious stuff with them whilst being ethnically cleansed. I get teary eyed thinking about how upset their poor displacers will be, so unjustly deprived of their well-deserved loot.
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Nov 15, 2020 05:06
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Haystack posted:I too love to scold people for taking their precious stuff with them whilst being ethnically cleansed. I get teary eyed thinking about how upset their poor displacers will be, so unjustly deprived of their well-deserved loot. I should point out that I have no dog in this fight.
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Nov 15, 2020 07:33
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Budzilla posted:The place in question was part of the Azerbaijan SSR and is still standing? In the USSR non-state permitted hate crimes would get you somewhere between an extended stay at a psychiatric hospital and a bullet to the brain stem, depending on who was in charge. The whole war started because Soviet authority was unable to do its job anymore wisconsingreg fucked around with this message at 07:51 on Nov 15, 2020 |
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Nov 15, 2020 07:41
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Budzilla posted:The place in question was part of the Azerbaijan SSR and is still standing? You can't accuse Azeris of the ethnic cleansing of a place considering that it is still there. It might happen but a lot of things might happen, so before we accuse one side of crimes against humanity just consider other options. What you seem to be missing is that ethnic cleansing has already happened, just by nature of the conflict. An ethnicity has been driven from an area. They were there, a war happened, and now they are not. They were cleansed. You've got to realize, a people fleeing from the threat of state pograms is arguably the main mechanic of ethnic cleansing. Nagorno-Karabakh has already experienced ethnic cleansing in this war, simply because the locals have left and won't be returning for fear of their safety. That's ethnic cleansing. That's what it looks like, in a lot of conflicts. It happened to the N-K Azeris during the 90s, it happened to the Palestinians after ww2, it happened to the Greeks after Ataturk. So it really sticks in my craw when you fingerwag at people for taking their loving religious treasures with them while they loving flee their homes forever, you enourmous clot. Haystack fucked around with this message at 09:04 on Nov 15, 2020 |
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Nov 15, 2020 09:01
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let's get controversial! say palestinians get a best-case border solution with the entirety of the west bank. is it ethnic cleansing to dismantle the settlements?
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Nov 15, 2020 09:10
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Sure, I'm game to discuss this. I feel like it boils down to the power dynamics. In your West Bank scenario, who is doing the removing? Is there compensation? What happens to the settlers after their removal? Those details matter. For the N-K Armenians, its a bad situation. The removal was done by dictorial enemy state that's glorified anti-armenian violence, there's little to no chance of restitution, and the victims will be poor refugees in a poor country. It's not the worst situation; it's a fairly small population and they at least have somewhere to flee to. But it's still a tragedy.
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Nov 15, 2020 09:22
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Do we have evidence or good reason to believe that the Armenian refugees won’t return to NK? I don’t expect the Russians to actually leave NK after 5 years, and I don’t expect any more Azeri military operations as long as the Russians are there. I genuinely don’t know the answer to this question.
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Nov 15, 2020 10:59
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lol they won't be back, either from hostile new locals or overt government policy of not offering citizenship etc when i met israeli settlers in the west bank in '99 their stone marble mantles above their front doors still had arabic script naming the palestinian family that lived there in '47 and presumably hundreds of years prior. it was pointed out to me and celebrated as a war trophy
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Nov 15, 2020 11:02
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i say swears online posted:let's get controversial! say palestinians get a best-case border solution with the entirety of the west bank. is it ethnic cleansing to dismantle the settlements? I think there tends to be a statute of limitations on when "colonizers" become "basically natives", so if Palestinians end up getting control of the West Bank again in like 2300, then at that point the "colonists" will have been there for like 10 generations. If they get control of the West Bank like right now then that's a totally different story. IMO if you and your parents and your grandparents were living somewhere, at some point it's your land and you have to find a new solution. Part of my wife's family got kicked out of their ancestral home in Silesia after WW1, but afaik they haven't gone back with their land deeds to try and claim it from whoever has been living there the last 102 years. Even if you've been displaced and treated like poo poo for those 102 years, randomly going back displacing someone else is a pretty terrible idea too. Azeris getting ethnically cleansed out of the surrounding areas of Nagorno Karabakh is pretty recent memory.
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Nov 15, 2020 11:34
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Budzilla posted:The place in question was part of the Azerbaijan SSR and is still standing? You can't accuse Azeris of the ethnic cleansing of a place considering that it is still there. It might happen but a lot of things might happen, so before we accuse one side of crimes against humanity just consider other options. *Standing in the middle of Rwanda in 1994* I don't see why people are so peeved, both groups were part of Belgium and are still alive?
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Nov 15, 2020 11:39
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Saladman posted:IMO if you and your parents and your grandparents were living somewhere, at some point it's your land and you have to find a new solution. Part of my wife's family got kicked out of their ancestral home in Silesia after WW1, but afaik they haven't gone back with their land deeds to try and claim it from whoever has been living there the last 102 years. Even if you've been displaced and treated like poo poo for those 102 years, randomly going back displacing someone else is a pretty terrible idea too. that's sometimes a reason in denying the armenian genocide, that it happened just a bit too long ago to label it so
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Nov 15, 2020 11:42
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i say swears online posted:that's sometimes a reason in denying the armenian genocide, that it happened just a bit too long ago to label it so That's a completely different question - whether Armenian genocide happened vs. whether Armenia deserves to get Turkish territory that was historically Armenian. You won't find many supporters of the latter, though there are some. Realisically the main difference between NG and Palestine is that the people who fled after the fall of the USSR had a state to go to, while Palestine is a case of a state oppressing a stateless people, while also ensuring, through its settlements among other things, that the oppressed faction would be unable to govern itself or form a state of its own even if given a chance, because its territory and infrastructure is too fragmented and intertwined with Israel "proper". So the only way forward wrt to an independent Palestine would be to reincorporate the lost land. Now this doesn't mean the settlers would need to leave per se, but I don't see how they would want to remain under a Palestinian government. Also in Azerbaijan - Armenia - NK ethnic cleansing in the aftermath of the fall of the USSR proceeded from all sides getting engaged in interethnic violence (though iirc the Azeris were the first / worst), while in Palestine it's unilateral occupation. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 11:59 on Nov 15, 2020 |
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Nov 15, 2020 11:55
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Budzilla posted:These items have been in the same location of centuries and now they want them removed? Those "items" aren't just neutral sticks and stones with zero ethnic linkage, they're objects of worship to the Armenians leaving the area. This isn't even one of those more controversial examples where it's a place of worship/items that's been used by several different faith and re-consecrated every time, this has been an Armenian place of worship since it's inception. You can put aside the question of whether or not the place would get trashed entirely; the location and the objects belong to the Armenian Apostolic Church and it's up to them what they do with those objects. If they decide to move them for whatever reason there's zero room for someone not of the faith to complain.
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Nov 15, 2020 14:29
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What was the ethnic composition by individual district and NK at the beginning of the NK war in 1990s? Apparently NK was mostly ethnic Armenian, but were the surrounding Azerbaijani districts that Armenia occupied for the past 30 years have similar demographics?
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Nov 15, 2020 14:38
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Nov 15, 2020 14:50
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i say swears online posted:let's get controversial! say palestinians get a best-case border solution with the entirety of the west bank. is it ethnic cleansing to dismantle the settlements? Doesn't the creation of the settlements represent illegal population transfer under international law, both because of the resulting expulsion of population that already resided in the area (plus environs, plus any land cleared for transit corridors) and the simultaneous introduction of a new population that completely shifts the preexisting ethnic demographic? In this, the settlements resemble to a degree the Sinicization of Tibet, or the Crown-sponsored displacement of Irish Catholics in favor of Protestant British settlers. Enough time has passed that Ireland is untangleable at this point, and I'm not even going to comment on Tibet, but when it comes to the West Bank you have people still alive who were displaced and still remember where they lived. I do not think that giving them back their homes at the cost of illegal settlers is ethnic cleansing, but then again I'm just an idiot on the internet so what do I know.
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Nov 15, 2020 14:53
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So did other people read my post as whitewashing ethnic cleansing too, or just Helsing? I can live without posting for a day, but I don't think that was a fair characterization of what I said.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 17:54 on Nov 15, 2020 |
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Nov 15, 2020 17:51
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