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Ham posted:That's a whole bunch of words that don't touch the reality of the subject, and Jacobin in general is very out of touch with the realities of the Arab world because they only seem to talk to disaffected Arab socialists pushing an angle. Tunisia's revolution ended up with change for the simple reason that no one really cares about Tunisia. Later in the interview it mentions Sudan's unions also being impactful in that revolution, its also not as nearly important to the region as Egypt but having alternate basis of powers helping to facilitate revolutions, ie like in Poland in the early 90s, seems reasonable to me
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Nov 28, 2020 00:17
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Grip it and rip it posted:I don't follow what you mean here. Why would Biden's desire for a feasible nuclear deal shift because scientists are getting assassinated?
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Nov 28, 2020 00:46
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The easy dismantling of the nuclear deal and now this would basically highlight to Iran that they should probably fast track their nuclear program. America really cannot be relied upon. Hell, worked for North Korea.
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Nov 28, 2020 01:32
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I'm not sure. The sanctions Iran's under are really, really bad, and Iran would love nothing more than to see them lifted, if only to a limited extent/only the secondary sanctions/etc.
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Nov 28, 2020 01:35
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Tweezer Reprise posted:I'm not sure. The sanctions Iran's under are really, really bad, and Iran would love nothing more than to see them lifted, if only to a limited extent/only the secondary sanctions/etc. Yeah well Iran tried to negotiate giving up their program in return for lifting the sanctions and hey look how that turned out. Now Biden can what, reach out to Iran with a new deal and promise the guy elected in 4 years will maintain it? Not a very appealing deal right there.
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Nov 28, 2020 01:43
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I think something that might be worth noting is the Iran deal was originally implemented in early 2016, and Trump was elected later that year. It was easier to wipe off the table unceremoniously when it was still rather fresh. If Biden lasts 4-8 years and the deal is reimplemented in 2021, there'll be less inertia to immediately destroy it on a transfer of power, possibly. I'm not saying that's particularly inspiring if you're Iran/anti-blockade, but it's something. e: deal finalized in 2015, implemented in 2016 Tweezer Reprise fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Nov 28, 2020 |
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Nov 28, 2020 01:46
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two issues with that: first, the iran deal is now fully partisan in yankeeland, as there's precedent for ripping up this exact deal. if biden gets tossed in four years, as seems fairly likely, the incoming admin may very well decide to shred it again second, iran has its own internal politics and nobody likes looking like a sucker. every breach of an agreement and unanswered act of war strengthens the impression in iran that the yanks are unreliable, belligerent assholes i imagine that biden might be able to reinstate the deal mostly as it was if he moves quickly, but the more time he spends waffling, the less interesting cooperation becomes from an iranian perspective
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Nov 28, 2020 12:39
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I think COVID is another factor that might make Iran more desperate (they've already publically said they want to reenter the deal with Biden), because if you've heard of any "humanitarian exceptions" to our sanctions regime to date, they are technically carved out, but in reality they do not function, and people are dying every single day due to the sanctions amplifying COVID, at least more than they otherwise would (because the immiseration is the point)
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Nov 28, 2020 16:54
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So the forthcoming NSA is already establishing preconditions for restarting the Iran nuclear agreement. https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1332792786094084098?s=21
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Nov 29, 2020 03:57
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V. Illych L. posted:two issues with that: Would Biden need Congress' support to reinstate the deal?
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Nov 29, 2020 17:43
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https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1333080696282288128?s=19
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Nov 29, 2020 18:02
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I have always wondered what would happen if Iran captured a bunch of genuine Mossad agents in Iran and was sentenced to death. Would Israel intervene?
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Nov 29, 2020 18:45
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Starpluck posted:I have always wondered what would happen if Iran captured a bunch of genuine Mossad agents in Iran and was sentenced to death. Would Israel intervene? Rescuing detained Mossad agents in the middle of Tehran would be an operation so monumental in scale and risk I doubt Israel would even attempt it. But, the US did attempt to rescue their hostages from Tehran in 1979. It failed terribly, but they did attempt it.
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Nov 29, 2020 18:51
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FiskTireBoy posted:Rescuing detained Mossad agents in the middle of Tehran would be an operation so monumental in scale and risk I doubt Israel would even attempt it.
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Nov 29, 2020 18:58
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FiskTireBoy posted:Rescuing detained Mossad agents in the middle of Tehran would be an operation so monumental in scale and risk I doubt Israel would even attempt it. I was basing my question on this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Entebbe
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Nov 29, 2020 19:01
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Say what you will about the Mossad but they respect COVID social distancing restrictions.
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Nov 29, 2020 21:36
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Thom12255 posted:Say what you will about the Mossad but they respect COVID social distancing restrictions. Or they're just big fans of Breaking Bad
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Nov 29, 2020 21:53
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FiskTireBoy posted:Or they're just big fans of Breaking Bad pff, it's bruce willis in the jackal
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Nov 29, 2020 22:20
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That's wild. I thought it very strange that "gunmen" carried out the attack, as said gunmen would have a very hard time escaping. Also worth noting that the guy had a significant security escort and still got hit. I imagine a lot of people in Iran are looking over their shoulders right now.
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Nov 29, 2020 22:42
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Count Roland posted:That's wild. I thought it very strange that "gunmen" carried out the attack, as said gunmen would have a very hard time escaping. Iran is and was born encircled by enemies. Death is an expected outcome in iran because bombings and assassinations are so normalized at this point I would say it's business as usual in the Islamic republic in terms of paranoia.
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Nov 29, 2020 22:46
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It strikes me that being able to do a remote assassination like this is a big game changer, particularly for the big scary intelligence agencies. It's damned hard to get someone to risk their life being a triggerman. Getting someone's truck, a gun, a rig, and a remote operator is exponentially easier.
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Nov 29, 2020 23:42
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This sounds so fantastical that I'm just going to file it under made-up unless a real confirmation is given.
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Nov 29, 2020 23:57
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In terms of security, is this really much of a game changer compared to the old fashioned remote assassination method of loading up some explosives to a timer or radio?
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Nov 29, 2020 23:58
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Disnesquick posted:In terms of security, is this really much of a game changer compared to the old fashioned remote assassination method of loading up some explosives to a timer or radio? Well, explosives cause a ton of collateral damage and/or require pretty close proximity.
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Nov 30, 2020 00:11
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Disnesquick posted:In terms of security, is this really much of a game changer compared to the old fashioned remote assassination method of loading up some explosives to a timer or radio? Yeah avoiding collateral damage is very important. Remember that Israel isn't just engaged in tactical warfare with Iran, but propaganda warfare too. They want the everyday citizens of the world powers to be sympathetic to them. Killing dozens or hundreds of innocent civilians in what amounts to essentially a terrorist attack in order to assassinate one guy is not a good look. But killing one guy with sophisticated tech? Now that's something Tesla-loving techbros can get behind.
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Nov 30, 2020 00:31
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Was the car parked? The tweet saya it stopped. So I guess theres a chance it was driven remotely. ....... Anyone know where Elon is?
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Nov 30, 2020 01:07
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Shageletic posted:Was the car parked? The tweet saya it stopped. So I guess theres a chance it was driven remotely. Elon is a loving bin man, where is Jamie from mythbusters?
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Nov 30, 2020 01:22
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we're not returning to any deal with added terms and if you think we are, you haven't been paying attention. this isn't the first time israel has merc'd one of our scientists and it won't be the last. business as usual.
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Nov 30, 2020 10:02
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Why IS Iran's counter-intelligence so, so bad at what it does? It's baffling to me how Mossad seems able to operate with impunity inside Iran's borders and all Iran can respond with is empty threats and fist shaking. What gives?
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Nov 30, 2020 12:12
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Mostly it's because Israel doesn't have to fear retaliation, so they can be more aggressive in their operations. Generally countries don't want it to be too obvious they're slaughtering another countries civilians in the street, but in this case it's a non issue. Killing any particular person isn't actually that difficult, especially if they live any kind of public life and aren't hiding in a cave or bunker. It's all the other stuff that's hard.
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Nov 30, 2020 12:45
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Pistol_Pete posted:Why IS Iran's counter-intelligence so, so bad at what it does? It's baffling to me how Mossad seems able to operate with impunity inside Iran's borders and all Iran can respond with is empty threats and fist shaking. What gives? There are plenty of people in Iran who don't support the government, it's not hard to recruit help.
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Nov 30, 2020 12:48
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Nenonen posted:There are plenty of people in Iran who don't support the government, it's not hard to recruit help. Is there really a substantial faction in Iran that's so opposed to the current government there that they're prepared to risk their lives to aid Israeli assassinations? I'm sure that Mossad must be getting some sort of assistance on the ground but just can't picture who'd be providing it.
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Nov 30, 2020 14:24
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Pistol_Pete posted:Is there really a substantial faction in Iran that's so opposed to the current government there that they're prepared to risk their lives to aid Israeli assassinations? I'm sure that Mossad must be getting some sort of assistance on the ground but just can't picture who'd be providing it. MEK https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mujahedin_of_Iran?wprov=sfla1
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Nov 30, 2020 15:02
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Pistol_Pete posted:Is there really a substantial faction in Iran that's so opposed to the current government there that they're prepared to risk their lives to aid Israeli assassinations? I'm sure that Mossad must be getting some sort of assistance on the ground but just can't picture who'd be providing it. I mean, it's a country of 82 million people. Money and blackmail can get you a long ways if you're not asking anyone to take any active risks.
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Nov 30, 2020 15:02
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It's also Iran and not North Korea. You can just go there. Or you can throw a burlap sack with a dollar sign stuffed with crumpled sweaty 1$ bills at some disgruntled idiot. There's no country where you don't have people willing to do this kind of stuff. Like I said, the big deciding factor on whether a country murders someone or not isn't how hard it is to kill someone, it's how to get away with it once you do.
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Nov 30, 2020 15:09
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Israel was actively aiding the current Iranian government during the Iran/Iraq war. Contrary to what Western media portrays, not everyone in the Middle East is a wild eyed fanatic. See also: American counter-intelligence running endless harassment campaigns against Chinese American scientists, because the noble and principled Anglo-Saxon is immune to bribery or corruption. Meanwhile 100% of Republican legislators will literally suck yo dick if you donated a moderately equipped BMW 5 series to their campaigns.
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Nov 30, 2020 15:11
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Pistol_Pete posted:Why IS Iran's counter-intelligence so, so bad at what it does? It's baffling to me how Mossad seems able to operate with impunity inside Iran's borders and all Iran can respond with is empty threats and fist shaking. What gives? Feels like they spend most of their time prosecuting Iranians with dual citizenships and anyone who travels to France for fun or something Sounds like US intelligence during the Cold War ^^^ or now I guess Shageletic fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Nov 30, 2020 |
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Nov 30, 2020 15:24
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Um, my understanding is that your average Iranian really, really hates MEK because they sided with Iraq in the Iran/Iraq War. Sure, lots of Iranians oppose their government, but an external actor (MEK, Israel, USA) attacking Iran is another level, at least from talking to Iranian expats. One friend whose parents and grandparents were upper class surgeons before the Revolution, is totally atheist, went to school in the USA, hates the regime, said if the USA puts one boot inside Iran he'll fly back and enlist to start shooting US troops.
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Nov 30, 2020 15:55
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Whatever support MEK had in Iran evaporated with the nerve gas in Mehran.
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Nov 30, 2020 16:57
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Rust Martialis posted:Um, my understanding is that your average Iranian really, really hates MEK because they sided with Iraq in the Iran/Iraq War. Sure, lots of Iranians oppose their government, but an external actor (MEK, Israel, USA) attacking Iran is another level, at least from talking to Iranian expats. That is pretty intense nationalism. Does it matter to him how such a hypothetical war gets started?
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Nov 30, 2020 18:10
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