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Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

blossommirage posted:

Loeffler "I was born and raised on a farm, worked as a waitress in college, used a punch clock when I was eleven, first of my family to graduate college; but it does nothing to repeat that as if it means something" and then she said the same thing three times before the end of the debate. Like she almost repeated that as much as she referred to Warnock as "Radical Liberal" like it's a title.

The goal is to produce clips that can be replayed in partisan media, and to provide no material for negative coverage. Especially effective if your target audience doesn't watch the debate itself.

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Zapf Dingbat
Jan 9, 2001


Where the hell are all these radical leftists the gop are talking about and threatening us with a good time

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

Just a reminder if you're in GA or know people in GA:

TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO REGISTER TO VOTE FOR THE RUNOFF. TODAY, DEC. 7.

If you know high school kids who turned 18 between the general election and now, they can register to vote in the runoff.

If you know people who've moved to GA in the past few months (or moved house between the GE and now) and maybe forgot to register in all the hustle and bustle, hit them up.

If you know anyone in GA make sure they are registered to vote!

SimonChris
Apr 24, 2008

The Baron's daughter is missing, and you are the man to find her. No problem. With your inexhaustible arsenal of hard-boiled similes, there is nothing you can't handle.
Grimey Drawer
https://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/1335996503912050698

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice
The thing that gets me is even if both democrats win we've already seen GA cheat at elections. What's to stop that again? Anything close is going to get its thumb on the scale by repubs, no?

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

The cheating in the gubernatorial election was wrongfully purging nonwhite voters from the rolls. Not by changing votes or whatever, (I mean think about it, if Kemp is changing votes how did Biden win the state?)

The thumb on the scale is that it's harder for nonwhite people to vote in the first place, but if you succeed at actually managing to vote, your vote still matters

Blue Footed Booby
Oct 4, 2006

got those happy feet

VitalSigns posted:

The cheating in the gubernatorial election was wrongfully purging nonwhite voters from the rolls. Not by changing votes or whatever, (I mean think about it, if Kemp is changing votes how did Biden win the state?)

The thumb on the scale is that it's harder for nonwhite people to vote in the first place, but if you succeed at actually managing to vote, your vote still matters

Also, I've seen a couple articles that mention Trump's weenies trying to get Kemp to screw with things, and him flat out refusing in ways more public than he strictly needed to. What I take from this isn't that he's not corrupt, but that he's not a complete loving moron, and is aware of the level of scrutiny Georgia is facing.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Earth posted:

The thing that gets me is even if both democrats win we've already seen GA cheat at elections. What's to stop that again? Anything close is going to get its thumb on the scale by repubs, no?

So you're saying that the fix is in for the Republicans, so there's no point in Democrats voting?

Seems like I've heard an argument like that before somewhere.

trilobite terror
Oct 20, 2007
BUT MY LIVELIHOOD DEPENDS ON THE FORUMS!

Blue Footed Booby posted:

Also, I've seen a couple articles that mention Trump's weenies trying to get Kemp to screw with things, and him flat out refusing in ways more public than he strictly needed to. What I take from this isn't that he's not corrupt, but that he's not a complete loving moron, and is aware of the level of scrutiny Georgia is facing.

I’ve said this before but “you don’t ever commit the exact same crime twice” is like the first lesson in Crime 101

Especially when the entire world is going “ok we’re pretty sure you crimed that one time, did you do a crime? We’re watching...”

blossommirage
Nov 7, 2012

Discendo Vox posted:

The goal is to produce clips that can be replayed in partisan media, and to provide no material for negative coverage. Especially effective if your target audience doesn't watch the debate itself.

This actually makes a lot of sense and also makes me upset.

Zwabu
Aug 7, 2006

Earth posted:

The thing that gets me is even if both democrats win we've already seen GA cheat at elections. What's to stop that again? Anything close is going to get its thumb on the scale by repubs, no?

The November 2020 election would seem to refute the notion that Democrats voting in Georgia is useless. If the GOP were able to control the outcomes there to the degree implied, Trump would have won and there wouldn't be two runoffs.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!
Are there any reports on how enthused or not enthused Democrats and non-Republicans are in Georgia for the runoffs? I've only seen reports about the GOP bickering.

Some Pinko Commie
Jun 9, 2009

CNC! Easy as 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣!
I've not seen any reports, but I've already requested and returned my run-off mail-in ballot and have confirmed that it's been accepted on the ballot tracker here in Georgia.

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice

Zwabu posted:

The November 2020 election would seem to refute the notion that Democrats voting in Georgia is useless. If the GOP were able to control the outcomes there to the degree implied, Trump would have won and there wouldn't be two runoffs.

I’ve already said I don’t think Biden won so much as Trump was rejected in GA. I’ve already pointed out that if Biden won GA we would have seen Ossoff closer than the vote he got. I want the repubs to lose, but until it happens I will not believe it.


Deteriorata posted:

So you're saying that the fix is in for the Republicans, so there's no point in Democrats voting?

Seems like I've heard an argument like that before somewhere.

I live in a red state and vote for the most progressive person every single time even though I know I’m going to lose. I’m not making an argument to not vote. You’re seeing things that aren’t there.


Ok Comboomer posted:

I’ve said this before but “you don’t ever commit the exact same crime twice” is like the first lesson in Crime 101

Especially when the entire world is going “ok we’re pretty sure you crimed that one time, did you do a crime? We’re watching...”

I like this and will hold onto it with some hope.

Vincent Van Goatse
Nov 8, 2006

Enjoy every sandwich.

Smellrose

Earth posted:

I’ve already said I don’t think Biden won so much as Trump was rejected in GA.

This still means that Biden, y'know, won. He won because he got a majority of the votes cast.

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

This still means that Biden, y'know, won. He won because he got a majority of the votes cast.

Yes, because someone was going to win of the two. Like, are you dense? I'm not going to put more than one minute of effort into this. GA is a red state. I don't think that's controversial to say. Which means it was Trumps to win, but Biden won. But he didn't "win" Trump just lost. The analogy for this is that if this was a literal foot race Trump started limping from his bone spurs and Biden didn't stop to help him, but took the win while the republican team sat quiet on the sidelines because they hate him. The real explanation is Trump is so horrible that enough people could not stomach to vote for him, but did vote for the repubs in downticket. Unless you can show me in a spot where a R switched to D downticket in Georgia I'm going to stick with what I claimed. Biden did not win, Trump lost and someone is the "winner" and that someone is Biden.

Pick
Jul 19, 2009
Nap Ghost
Georgia is pretty solidly purple at this point, that's why Abrams got so close.

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice

Pick posted:

Georgia is pretty solidly purple at this point, that's why Abrams got so close.

It isn't purple: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_state_legislatures. I will give that it is trying to be purple, but it isn't yet.

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Earth posted:

The real explanation is Trump is so horrible that enough people could not stomach to vote for him, but did vote for the repubs in downticket. Unless you can show me in a spot where a R switched to D downticket in Georgia I'm going to stick with what I claimed. Biden did not win, Trump lost and someone is the "winner" and that someone is Biden.

The 6th congressional district voted R+23 in 2016, R+3 in 2017, D+1 in 2018, and D+9 in 2020. The 7th district voted R+20 in 2016, R+0.2 in 2018, and D+3 in 2020. That isn't necessarily because of 2016 Republicans changing their votes, but it's not consistent with evil suburbanites voting en masse for Biden and GOP representatives.

To see how stupid the "Georgia is a red state" argument is, you can find and replace Georgia with Michigan and 2020 with 2016. It's the same logic from "Clinton was stupid not to campaign in the rust belt" repurposed to attack Biden for campaigning in states he won.

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!

Earth posted:

Yes, because someone was going to win of the two. Like, are you dense? I'm not going to put more than one minute of effort into this. GA is a red state. I don't think that's controversial to say. Which means it was Trumps to win, but Biden won. But he didn't "win" Trump just lost. The analogy for this is that if this was a literal foot race Trump started limping from his bone spurs and Biden didn't stop to help him, but took the win while the republican team sat quiet on the sidelines because they hate him. The real explanation is Trump is so horrible that enough people could not stomach to vote for him, but did vote for the repubs in downticket. Unless you can show me in a spot where a R switched to D downticket in Georgia I'm going to stick with what I claimed. Biden did not win, Trump lost and someone is the "winner" and that someone is Biden.

What you’re saying is that Biden won Georgia. Got it.

Seriously though -
I think it’s a little oversimplifying to group all Republicans together in the state. I think you have at least two flavors of Republican and maybe three, in descending order of size:
1) hard-core Trumper‘s (in the rural counties)
2) squishy moderates (mostly in the suburbs)
3) never trump Republicans

We’re going to assume that all of group one voted for Trump group 2 maybe split for Biden 50-50 and group 3 split for Biden 75/25.

If I’m understanding you correctly you’re saying Trump lost because he lost all of groups two and three. On this basis you’re predicting the loss of the runoffs because two and three will return to voting Republican. I don’t think your theory is outlandish but I think you may be overestimating how many members of group two broke for Biden. I think a lot of group 2 is locked in Republican because they’re FYGM. I have no doubt those people will show up for leffler & Purdue in the runoffs.

I think another variable you failed to consider is the effect of Trump being off the ballot and failing to encourage group one to show up. Remember the election in November was decided by only 10,000 votes. If all the same Democrats or most of the Democrats turn out for the runoff and group one suffers a 5 to 10% dip in turn out the Dems win easily. In other words I think having Trump off the ballot could be good for Democrats in this election especially with Trump failing to rally the base as hard as they were in November.

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!
Also I wonder how the weather is going to affect Republican turnout in the early voting and on Election Day. The weather was great mid to late October which was the early voting period. Standing outside in a long line with no big deal. in December when we get early voting for the runoff you’re gonna be freezing your nips off if you stand in line. Even more so an Election Day. Since most Dems are voting by mail it’s not gonna matter but remember most Republicans vote early in person or on Election Day. Combining crap weather with what is almost certainly going to be a huge surge in cases might be enough to scare Republicans away from the polls in small numbers.

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"
I've been textbanking for Georgia and it's just astounding how polarized everyone is. We sent out some texts surveying people on how they viewed Loeffler and Perdue on a scale from 0-10, and almost everyone responded with either 0 or 10. Or ridiculous off-the-scale numbers.

Some Pinko Commie
Jun 9, 2009

CNC! Easy as 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣!

boquiabierta posted:

I've been textbanking for Georgia and it's just astounding how polarized everyone is. We sent out some texts surveying people on how they viewed Loeffler and Perdue on a scale from 0-10, and almost everyone responded with either 0 or 10. Or ridiculous off-the-scale numbers.

I've been responding to random texts mentioning Purdue and Loeffler with "Go gently caress yourself" and blocking the number. Where does that fall in the scale?

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"
No need to block the number, we'll take you off the list.

Some Pinko Commie
Jun 9, 2009

CNC! Easy as 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣!

boquiabierta posted:

No need to block the number, we'll take you off the list.

I thought so, too, but the same numbers would text me the next day asking the same thing, so I started blocking. Pretty sure it's the automated texting systems on that part because most of them come from 800 numbers.

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"
I don't know what the number is, we use a texting program and I just know I'm not using my phone or phone number. Robotexts are illegal though. We have to sit there pressing "enter" hundreds of times to manually send out the initial text because if that part were automated it would be illegal. Anyway sorry you're getting inundated, seems like a lot of Georgians are pretty over the whole thing.

Centurium
Aug 17, 2009

DeeplyConcerned posted:

What you’re saying is that Biden won Georgia. Got it.

Seriously though -
I think it’s a little oversimplifying to group all Republicans together in the state. I think you have at least two flavors of Republican and maybe three, in descending order of size:
1) hard-core Trumper‘s (in the rural counties)
2) squishy moderates (mostly in the suburbs)
3) never trump Republicans

We’re going to assume that all of group one voted for Trump group 2 maybe split for Biden 50-50 and group 3 split for Biden 75/25.

If I’m understanding you correctly you’re saying Trump lost because he lost all of groups two and three. On this basis you’re predicting the loss of the runoffs because two and three will return to voting Republican. I don’t think your theory is outlandish but I think you may be overestimating how many members of group two broke for Biden. I think a lot of group 2 is locked in Republican because they’re FYGM. I have no doubt those people will show up for leffler & Purdue in the runoffs.

I think another variable you failed to consider is the effect of Trump being off the ballot and failing to encourage group one to show up. Remember the election in November was decided by only 10,000 votes. If all the same Democrats or most of the Democrats turn out for the runoff and group one suffers a 5 to 10% dip in turn out the Dems win easily. In other words I think having Trump off the ballot could be good for Democrats in this election especially with Trump failing to rally the base as hard as they were in November.

This is a good take. When people say "Republicans show up to runoffs, Democrats don't" they're actually referring to mostly groups 2 and 3 there. Trump's votes all over the country (and in Georgia too) increased numerically over 2016 by a lot because a whole bunch of uneducated white people who don't vote voted for him.

That group not only has no history of showing up in runoffs, they have a history of not showing up for midterms or any elections without Trump on the ballot. Assuming they show up just because they vote for the same guy as other groups (like affluent educated suburbanites) is foolish. It may come to pass, but it will be because R's overcame a serious barrier to turnout.

Also, you should be looking at turnout operations for solidly democratic constituencies as well. Excellent turnout among urban populations and black voters in Georgia on Nov 3 came from serious, expansive registration and vote turnout machines that are still working just as hard (and with more resources!) Donald Trump wasn't a particularly salient factor in those group's motivation to turn out.

So, we know the suburbs probably go like 5-8% in favor of the R's. The question is whether R's can prevent enough of a difference in base voter turnout for that to matter. I'd say the suburb advantage is the ONLY advantage R's have in this race's events so far, and even then D's are dominating the narrative because both senators profiteered off of CoVID.

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1336537946455871488

Aineris
Oct 10, 2005
How dare these black people not want to get murdered!? Don't they know it could expose me to COVID!?

boquiabierta posted:

we use a texting program

boquiabierta posted:

Robotexts are illegal

boquiabierta posted:

We have to sit there pressing "enter" hundreds of times

boquiabierta posted:

if that part were automated it would be illegal

You're either a complete imbecile, or you're totally fine with blatantly violating the spirit of anti-robotexting laws. Probably both. Either way, you're not helping your cause in the least, unless your cause is to annoy as many people as possible.

boquiabierta posted:

seems like a lot of Georgians are pretty over the whole thing.

Really. I wonder why...

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"
Should I wait five minutes between hitting enter? How exactly would you like me to observe the spirit of anti-robotexting laws when I have hundreds or thousands of texts to send? I believe in the causes I'm volunteering for and unfortunately the anti-robotexting laws do force us to technically observe the law while acting somewhat robotically. And I do know that I'm helping the cause because in between all the annoyed people are people who are grateful for the information we give them, and there are observable effects in the voting electorate from these efforts. No need to call me an imbecile jfc

boquiabierta fucked around with this message at 10:15 on Dec 10, 2020

Some Pinko Commie
Jun 9, 2009

CNC! Easy as 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣!
Don't loving text strangers whose numbers you obtained without their loving permission.

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"
Is it better to call them? To knock on their doors? Canvassing has been a part of electoral politics forever and it's not going away, just changing form.

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

I get that texts can be annoying but y'all are being huge dicks to someone who's just a volunteer.

Slaan
Mar 16, 2009



ASHERAH DEMANDS I FEAST, I VOTE FOR A FEAST OF FLESH
I'm more concerned that the texts are all generally loving stupid. They are badly spelled and half the time are conspiracy theory nonsense like "Trump is putin's puppet don't let prdue give us back to China" instead of actual get out the vote messages based around real world policy messages aimed to the poor and working class

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!
You guys do know that the peach state is Georgia right? This isnt exactly the thread for a generic discussion on the horrors of Robo texting. Maybe we should change the thread title. Or post some polls. Somebody poll me

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice

boquiabierta posted:

Is it better to call them? To knock on their doors? Canvassing has been a part of electoral politics forever and it's not going away, just changing form.

Keep doing what you’re doing. You have more courage than me. I’ve been donating money, but haven’t built the courage to call/text bank. gently caress anyone that tells you otherwise.

I’ve posted up thread that GA is a red state and I believe it. I posted that I think the repubs will cheat, and I believe it. Doesn’t mean I’m not going to at least try to do my part. Doesn’t mean anyone that believes shouldn’t try to do their part.

boquiabierta
May 27, 2010

"I will throw my best friend an abortion party if she wants one"

Earth posted:

Keep doing what you’re doing. You have more courage than me. I’ve been donating money, but haven’t built the courage to call/text bank. gently caress anyone that tells you otherwise.

I’ve posted up thread that GA is a red state and I believe it. I posted that I think the repubs will cheat, and I believe it. Doesn’t mean I’m not going to at least try to do my part. Doesn’t mean anyone that believes shouldn’t try to do their part.

Thank you! Much appreciated.

ColdPie
Jun 9, 2006

I tried sending goatse back to the robotexters during the GE, but their texting program doesn't receive images :(

DeeplyConcerned
Apr 29, 2008

I can fit 3 whole bud light cans now, ask me how!

ColdPie posted:

I tried sending goatse back to the robotexters during the GE, but their texting program doesn't receive images :(

Try a fax! You never know, they might have a fax machine!

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Grammarchist
Jan 28, 2013

I didn't personally mind texts during the General Election. They were polite, issues-oriented and easy to ignore after the initial reminder that an election is happening. Then again, I was a donor and volunteer for doomed local candidate, so it's not like I needed the reminder to vote in November, even if I'm stuck in a deep-red state where it didn't matter. Georgia going blue for a bit, even if it isn't quite ready to go full Virginia/Colorado, was huge for morale out here in Indiana.

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