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Eric Cantonese posted:Have there been any updates to the early voting numbers in the runoffs? At 715k votes on day two, mostly from rural counties.
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Dec 16, 2020 19:32
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To put that number in perspective: During the presidential election 4 million votes were cast early (2.7 million in person, 1.3 million by mail) and another 1 million on election day.
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Dec 16, 2020 22:14
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DTurtle posted:To put that number in perspective: Seems like a good position to be in with regard to turn out for the Democrats considering we have another couple weeks of early voting. Plus, I think the state just started sending out absentee ballots a day or two ago. I still have not received mine.
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Dec 17, 2020 01:00
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https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1339404465531723776?s=20
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Dec 17, 2020 19:16
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quote:Those prioritizing the economy are breaking for the Republican incumbents, while the Democratic challengers are leading with voters who see the coronavirus, health care and social justice as more important. Excuse me while I go bang my head against a wall again. To be fair, didn't both Perdue and Loeffler end up ahead in the runoffs?
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Dec 17, 2020 19:39
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"The suburbs are the future of the Democratic Party, get hosed labor  "Suburbanites: "Orange man gone, a Republican said the word 'economy' so I'm coming home"
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Dec 17, 2020 19:52
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Eric Cantonese posted:Excuse me while I go bang my head against a wall again. Perdue did, Loeffler didn't. Loeffler was also running along side 300 poo poo zillion people, so it's pretty inconclusive.
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Dec 17, 2020 21:10
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blossommirage posted:Perdue did, Loeffler didn't. Loeffler was also running along side 300 poo poo zillion people, so it's pretty inconclusive. Warnock ran ahead of Loeffler, but Republicans combined ran ahead of combined Democrats in that race.
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Dec 17, 2020 21:23
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Loeffler is so hilariously corrupt and awful, that we can at least hope some supporters of her Republican rivals stay home, but on the other hand she may benefit from Purdue being on the same ballot since Republicans who turn out for him may well just vote the whole Republican ticket. After all Purdue isn't that much less corrupt so if he's not a bridge too far, oof. I think Warnock would have a much better chance against her if there weren't two races on the ballot.
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Dec 17, 2020 21:38
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Yep, I'm guessing it's gonna end up being a split victory. Loeffler is loving awful and Warnock can probably pull in a few Obama-Trump "see I'm not racist!!!!" votes from the suburbs. Perdue isn't quite as bad and Ossoff is boring so a lot of ex-Republicans probably feel safe voting for him even if they don't like Loeffler enough.
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Dec 17, 2020 22:13
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blossommirage posted:Perdue did, Loeffler didn't. Loeffler was also running along side 300 poo poo zillion people, so it's pretty inconclusive. Loeffler was running against one other person, a challenger from the ultra MAGA right. Warnock was competing against 33 1/3 people. Neither Purdue nor Loeffler hit 50% +1, thus the runnoff. The fact that Purdue has to run again is extremely favorable for Democrats. Also, take a look at election day of voters and how that lines up with Trump only voters. Interesting.
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Dec 17, 2020 22:25
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Slaan posted:Yep, I'm guessing it's gonna end up being a split victory. Loeffler is loving awful and Warnock can probably pull in a few Obama-Trump "see I'm not racist!!!!" votes from the suburbs. Perdue isn't quite as bad and Ossoff is boring so a lot of ex-Republicans probably feel safe voting for him even if they don't like Loeffler enough.
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Dec 17, 2020 22:38
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Dumb optimism, yeah. Even a split win is still a long shot. Georgia is only slightly in purple territory
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Dec 17, 2020 22:40
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If 55% of mail-in ballots from the first million voters are from the elderly, are dem chances hosed?
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Dec 17, 2020 22:47
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Grouchio posted:If 55% of mail-in ballots from the first million voters are from the elderly, are dem chances hosed? Depends on how concerned they are with coronavirus.
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Dec 18, 2020 01:54
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Grouchio posted:I'm guessing Emerson/any poll post-election is extremely dubious (considering we now know very few voters respond to phonebanking) so that's why your hopes are up despite the GOP being up +1/+3? The Republicans being up by 3 points in one poll with a 4 point margin of error is meaningless. What you should be taking away from the Georgia runoff polls is that both races are too close for polls to tell you who will win and there is no evidence of voters switching parties from the runoff to the general election (but we don't know which party will have better turnout).
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Dec 18, 2020 01:57
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Yeah it's just... pure turnout 
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Dec 18, 2020 02:13
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https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1339802838524899328
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Dec 18, 2020 06:51
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https://www.ajc.com/politics/75k-new-georgia-voters-registered-before-us-senate-runoffs/H3CXAFIKFVCKHJNW5MBFZKQDZU/ Nearly 76,000 new voters registered after the presidential election and in time for the runoffs. Hope is poison, but it's so tasty.
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Dec 18, 2020 08:35
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Eric Cantonese posted:https://www.ajc.com/politics/75k-new-georgia-voters-registered-before-us-senate-runoffs/H3CXAFIKFVCKHJNW5MBFZKQDZU/ It's all Republicans, coming home to curb the Dems' power now that Biden's President-elect and Trump's on his way out.
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Dec 18, 2020 14:32
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Ok Comboomer posted:It's all Republicans, coming home to curb the Dems' power now that Biden's President-elect and Trump's on his way out. "They’re overwhelmingly young, with 56% of them under 35 years old"
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Dec 18, 2020 18:10
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I know exit polling data is generally bullshit, but I recall seeing that both 2016 and 2018 showed Georgia as one of the most heavily stratified along age lines, with younger voters much more heavily Dem-aligned than surrounding states, but with the GOP holding a vice grip on non-minorities over 50. I remember Nate Silver making the argument that this might be one area where demographics actually might flip the state like Virginia or Colorado at some point, simply because the generation gap is more profound there. It's just that there aren't many ancestral Dem loyalists from the 60's and 70's left to challenge the other voters in the age range that always vote out of spite, so the suppression hits Dems hard there and let's the GOP hold on. Indiana's Democratic Party is toast, but it's still interesting to talk to the old rural Dem holdouts. Hanging out with a crazy dude with a chest-length beard to commiserate over Trump flags and crack jokes about chuds pining after AOC is strangely cathartic.
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Dec 18, 2020 20:19
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Any thoughts on stimmy pushing the repubs through the finish line?
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Dec 21, 2020 13:57
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Earth posted:Any thoughts on stimmy pushing the repubs through the finish line? i think that the people most likely to be swayed are the type that only really notice when the money is put in their pocket, which i don't think will have happened by early january. maybe the extension of the eviction moratorium will be noticed?
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Dec 21, 2020 19:01
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i think that the people most likely to be swayed are the type that only really notice when the money is put in their pocket, which i don't think will have happened by early january. maybe the extension of the eviction moratorium will be noticed? I know Mitch put it through because all of the ads write themselves. "The republicans evicted you. Vote democrat to stay in your house!"
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Dec 21, 2020 19:06
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https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1341395736710275074?s=20
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Dec 22, 2020 17:30
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Uninspiring tweet. Tweeting without comment is lovely. Where's the couching that it's the republicans fault that the plebes only get $600?
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Dec 22, 2020 18:43
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Earth posted:Uninspiring tweet. Tweeting without comment is lovely. Where's the couching that it's the republicans fault that the plebes only get $600? He probably knows that the electorate knows that neither party cares if they live or die and that both of them are run by out of touch Marie Antoinette* style psychopaths that have no idea what a single months rent costs in 2020. He'd just get called out for it if he tried to blame it on the GOP entirely. He's got no real choice but to make a week low-impact tweet without calling out anyone in particular. *I know she probably never said the line and so does everyone else, nobody is impressed when it gets pointed out over and over again
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Dec 22, 2020 21:31
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Good thing Ossoff supports Medicare for All, otherwise he'd sure look like an rear end in a top hat!
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Dec 22, 2020 21:56
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They're all assholes/fuckers. Honestly best case scenario is we stem the tide of fascism for a few years.
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Dec 23, 2020 14:11
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1341774387301679110
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Dec 23, 2020 17:05
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341913841920315392
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Dec 24, 2020 04:06
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Winning the senate in 2020 means keeping it or expanding its lead in 2022, and passing good legislation during that time. Not sure about 2024 though, but it is a Presidential year. Not liking Perdue being ahead by 1, within MOE but still, if Warnock wins it hope he carries Ossoff over the finish line.
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Dec 24, 2020 04:21
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Given the margin of error is 4.4% looks like this race is going to stay too close to call down to the buzzer.
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Dec 24, 2020 04:21
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DeeplyConcerned posted:Given the margin of error is 4.4% looks like this race is going to stay too close to call down to the buzzer. I mean, that's why it's a double runoff in the first place.
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Dec 24, 2020 06:02
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I did early voting tonight. Feels good to have that done.
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Dec 24, 2020 06:24
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What happens in a potential 50/50 Senate Split? Does Mitch still lose power?
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Dec 24, 2020 20:34
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TulliusCicero posted:What happens in a potential 50/50 Senate Split? Does Mitch still lose power? Yes. Because the VP is tie breaker.
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Dec 24, 2020 20:45
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Raenir Salazar posted:Yes. Because the VP is tie breaker. That really depends on what shenanigan rules changes they can put in place for the 2 weeks that Pence is still VP.
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Dec 25, 2020 12:40
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Bel Shazar posted:That really depends on what shenanigan rules changes they can put in place for the 2 weeks that Pence is still VP. It is in the constitution. There are no shenanigans or "one weird trick" they can do to make Mitch keep control of the chamber if its 50/50 with Harris as VP.
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Dec 26, 2020 00:43
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