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Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Bel Shazar posted:

That really depends on what shenanigan rules changes they can put in place for the 2 weeks that Pence is still VP.

As Rigel said, the US has no quasi-constitutional ability to bind a future congress from purely the rules adoption process the senate undertakes at the beginning of a senate term. The VP is the tie breaking vote as per the constitution and there's no way to change the rules for that not to be the case.

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Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
:thunk:
https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1343002800654053376

trilobite terror
Oct 20, 2007
BUT MY LIVELIHOOD DEPENDS ON THE FORUMS!

~~VoTeR sUpPrEsSiOn~~ :byodame::byodood:

trilobite terror fucked around with this message at 04:18 on Dec 27, 2020

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin

Ok Comboomer posted:

~~VoTeR sUpPrEsSiOn~~ :byodame::byodood:

But if they do it to themselves....

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.

HootTheOwl posted:

But if they do it to themselves....

Voter regression.

Ruzihm
Aug 11, 2010

Group up and push mid, proletariat!



Didn't work too well for Guaido. Lets see what the republicans do with this strat

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

This has to be some kind of psyops, no one can really be this dumb

Slugworth
Feb 18, 2001

If two grown men can't make a pervert happy for a few minutes in order to watch a film about zombies, then maybe we should all just move to Iran!

paternity suitor posted:

This has to be some kind of psyops, no one can really be this dumb
...He said, of the dumbest subsection of the dumbest country on the planet.

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
Who likes non-poll numbers?!?!?

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1343656801443721219

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 2 hours!

I would love to know where this guy is getting his information.

DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


From here:
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

And they get the base information from the state:
https://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do

Basically it is public information as to who has voted early in person or what the status of their vote by mail is.

That is then supplemented by demographic data about voters that the person that made that website last purchased in October.

DTurtle fucked around with this message at 03:43 on Dec 29, 2020

Raenir Salazar
Nov 5, 2010

College Slice

Interesting, the margin was very small before, so as long as this is consistently favouring dems in the aggregate it might just be enough.

Some Pinko Commie
Jun 9, 2009

CNC! Easy as 1️⃣2️⃣3️⃣!
This is loving brutal, :lol:

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1344110389861072896?s=20

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




Holy poo poo did Fox News give Ben GHAZI Gowdy his own show? :psyduck:

What am I saying: of course they did :suicide:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

A white Vietnam veteran told me I'm doing really well at "making America segregated again"

Sanguinia
Jan 1, 2012

~Everybody wants to be a cat~
~Because a cat's the only cat~
~Who knows where its at~

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

A white Vietnam veteran told me I'm doing really well at "making America segregated again"

If experience with my family and community have taught me anything, its that white Vietnam veterans and white people who lived through Vietnam in general took the exact opposite lesson they should have from every aspect of it. They live in Rambo Universe where the greatest crime of the Vietnam War was that Americans had to suffer through being embarrassed because they lost.

Haystack
Jan 23, 2005





Sanguinia posted:

If experience with my family and community have taught me anything, its that white Vietnam veterans and white people who lived through Vietnam in general took the exact opposite lesson they should have from every aspect of it. They live in Rambo Universe where the greatest crime of the Vietnam War was that Americans had to suffer through being embarrassed because they lost.

The wounded pride of pouty dipshits is always, always, always at the heart of any fascist movement.

Coredump
Dec 1, 2002

Given Georgia's history of the home team choking before victory I'm trying to decide which side is gonna do it this time. You would think Republicans would be considered the home team but lol Dems.

blossommirage
Nov 7, 2012

Coredump posted:

Given Georgia's history of the home team choking before victory I'm trying to decide which side is gonna do it this time. You would think Republicans would be considered the home team but lol Dems.

Right after Trump's inauguration was 28-3. I remember a lot of people outside the state seeing the Patriots as a surrogate for MAGA poo poo and the Falcons as a resistance against it. Then the Falcons blew a massive lead and the officials decided who won the game with a coin flip. So the runoff will be decided by a coin flip, and if history has taught us anything, at the inauguration they will in fact give Tom Brady his billionth loving ring as the first act of the new Congress.

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

blossommirage posted:

Right after Trump's inauguration was 28-3. I remember a lot of people outside the state seeing the Patriots as a surrogate for MAGA poo poo and the Falcons as a resistance against it. Then the Falcons blew a massive lead and the officials decided who won the game with a coin flip. So the runoff will be decided by a coin flip, and if history has taught us anything, at the inauguration they will in fact give Tom Brady his billionth loving ring as the first act of the new Congress.
But Tom's a Buccaneer now; was it them or the Dolphins who sucked more?

Charlz Guybon
Nov 16, 2010
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1344361444620562433

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Sanguinia posted:

If experience with my family and community have taught me anything, its that white Vietnam veterans and white people who lived through Vietnam in general took the exact opposite lesson they should have from every aspect of it. They live in Rambo Universe where the greatest crime of the Vietnam War was that Americans had to suffer through being embarrassed because they lost.

You are correct. As someone else said the stab in the back poo poo is always the basis of fascism. because fascism is about reinvigorating the old ways.

HootTheOwl
May 13, 2012

Hootin and shootin
You can't be secretly powerful if someone isn't holding/stabbing you in the back

Youth Decay
Aug 18, 2015

Jon Ossoff basically got to run a campaign ad live on Fox News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qSwhGcBxEwg
He may be an empty suit but he sure can speak well. A shame it doesn't matter at all since GOP voters will vote for the (R) and ignore everything else.

Sarcastr0
May 29, 2013

WON'T SOMEBODY PLEASE THINK OF THE BILLIONAIRES ?!?!?
My Washington DC AM radio station just did a full segment about something with Warnock and his summer camp. They never said what, just that it was a scandal "found by an intrepid conservative muckraker" and would end him.

Doesn't seem to be coming up in a cursory search of the past few pages, so I'm thinking it's not worth worrying about?

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Sarcastr0 posted:

My Washington DC AM radio station just did a full segment about something with Warnock and his summer camp. They never said what, just that it was a scandal "found by an intrepid conservative muckraker" and would end him.

Doesn't seem to be coming up in a cursory search of the past few pages, so I'm thinking it's not worth worrying about?

If this did actually end up being a story (which is one massive "if"), it came way too late given that the overwhelming majority of the vote is mail-in. It would need another few days to spin up into everyone's radar, and the vote is already in the mail. Maybe it would juice GOP election day vote?

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

Sarcastr0 posted:

My Washington DC AM radio station just did a full segment about something with Warnock and his summer camp. They never said what, just that it was a scandal "found by an intrepid conservative muckraker" and would end him.

Doesn't seem to be coming up in a cursory search of the past few pages, so I'm thinking it's not worth worrying about?

This seems identical to Rudy's Hunter Biden stuff. Keep intimating that there is an enormous scandal brewing without ever disclosing what it is or any evidence for it.

If there was any actual scandal they'd have said what it is.

AtraMorS
Feb 29, 2004

If at the end of a war story you feel that some tiny bit of rectitude has been salvaged from the larger waste, you have been made the victim of a very old and terrible lie

Sarcastr0 posted:

My Washington DC AM radio station just did a full segment about something with Warnock and his summer camp. They never said what, just that it was a scandal "found by an intrepid conservative muckraker" and would end him.

Doesn't seem to be coming up in a cursory search of the past few pages, so I'm thinking it's not worth worrying about?
This story? It's been out there since Dec. 10 at least, and the the story was publicly reported on back in 2002, so it's not like it was some big secret anybody unearthed.

As far as I can tell (because current reporting is almost entirely from right-wing outlets): Warnock was the pastor of a Baltimore church in 2002. That church ran a summer camp, but Warnock was not the director of the camp. A kid at the summer camp alleged abuse--being forced to sleep outside, also having some piss thrown on him--and while the police were questioning the camp counselors, Warnock insisted that the counselors have legal counsel present because they were pretty much all teenagers. The police arrested him for interfering, and the charges were dropped (the DA chalked it up to a "miscommunication"). There were also apparently several health code violations at the camp, and counselors had not been given criminal background checks, so the camp had its licensing revoked; it was re-instated after the camp's director and a couple counselors were removed and background checks were put in place.

Abuse may in fact have happened at the camp (the 2002 reporting notes five instances that weren't properly reported), but about the worst you can say about Warnock as a result of this incident is that he didn't report allegations of abuse that he probably hadn't been informed about.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!
It's just a ploy to get "Warnock" and "child abuse" together in as many headlines as they can between now and Tuesday.

It does sound like the camp was sorta lovely but it doesn't seem like that was Warnock's "fault". Like, sure, Krusty was wrong to put the Krusty Seal of Approval on his Kamp, but it was [Mr. Black] who was the real criminal.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Mellow Seas posted:

It's just a ploy to get "Warnock" and "child abuse" together in as many headlines as they can between now and Tuesday.

It does sound like the camp was sorta lovely but it doesn't seem like that was Warnock's "fault". Like, sure, Krusty was wrong to put the Krusty Seal of Approval on his Kamp, but it was [Mr. Black] who was the real criminal.

Satanic panic baby it's our last weapon when we know we are loving losing.

Coredump
Dec 1, 2002

I really hope the Democrats capitalize on McConnell blocking the $2000 stimulus payments into some good ads for Warnock and Ossoff.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Coredump posted:

I really hope the Democrats capitalize on McConnell blocking the $2000 stimulus payments into some good ads for Warnock and Ossoff.

They have been relentlessly focusing on it nonstop ever since Trump farted out his angry tweets demanding it.

Coredump
Dec 1, 2002

Rigel posted:

They have been relentlessly focusing on it nonstop ever since Trump farted out his angry tweets demanding it.

I mean some commercials that make it to tv.

I was talking with my father who is pretty chud these days about this. My father was unaware that Mitch was the block for the stimulus payments being $2000. But then when I told him what had happened his reply was “well I’ll take what I can get.” I made it a point to reinforce how much money went in the previous stimulus to businesses and how little we’re getting. And to that point he made a comment of how many businesses went out of business. So I had to steer him back to the original point of that the money is there, they just won’t give it to the people. Then he speculated what strings must have been attached to the $2000 payments to make Mitch block it and I informed him it was a straight amendment to increase the $600 to $2000 and Mitch won’t allow a vote on it.

For people who have been brainwashed by conservative media when you engage them on these topics you really have to keep them on point.

Rigel
Nov 11, 2016

Admitting that you were not just wrong for most of your adult life, but a complete and utter loving credulous imbecile is almost impossible for most people once they have crossed a certain line of public support. Even Trump was only able to shake a relatively tiny number of former Republicans into re-evaluating their beliefs, and most of them just ended up called themselves "independent" while still voting for every damned Republican after the top line. Old chuds are a lost cause.

Edward Mass
Sep 14, 2011

𝅘𝅥𝅮 I wanna go home with the armadillo
Good country music from Amarillo and Abilene
Friendliest people and the prettiest women you've ever seen
𝅘𝅥𝅮
David Perdue is quarantining due to exposure to someone with COVID-19.

Centurium
Aug 17, 2009
This needs more number:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

The delta in turnout change from November between D stronghold counties and R stronghold counties looks very good for D's.

Also, this isn't the highest quality poll out there, but it IS full of schadenfreude:

https://www.11alive.com/article/new...d5-cf8ffb7db14f

DynamicSloth
Jul 30, 2006

"Man is least himself when he talks in his own person. Give him a mask, and he will tell you the truth."

I don't think the conventional wisdom is unwise, if this was an historically normal election the Republicans would have a considerable advantage. Democrats almost always retain fewer general election voters in these runoffs. Now this isn't a normal election but there also aren't definitive signals to override the historical assumptions either. It's close and getting closer but the GOP has always been the favourite on Predictit.

The early vote suggests the Democrats will manage a historically high retention rate, much better then they've done it the past, but all the GOP needs to do to win is match the turnout they had on Nov 3rd. It's very difficult to say what the Chuds are going to do, they live in a different reality.

Earth
Nov 6, 2009
I WOULD RATHER INSERT A $20 LEGO SET'S WORTH OF PLASTIC BRICKS INTO MY URETHRA THAN STOP TALKING ABOUT BEING A SCALPER.
College Slice
Three days away and still identified as a toss up. What a world.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







she needs to lose just so she'll go the gently caress away

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1345394250763153409?s=20

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Ballz
Dec 16, 2003

it's mario time

For anyone wondering who the hell she’s talking about :

https://twitter.com/lpdonovan/status/1345399674103074818?s=21

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