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PokeJoe posted:It was my stop loss rip that sucks. stop losses are dangerous on these things since its all speculation and subject to tweet manipulation
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Feb 3, 2021 17:28
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looks like its going to keep bleeding though because people are scurred. im scared too but holding
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Feb 3, 2021 17:34
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Not gonna complain about being able to sneak some sub-30 buys in
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Feb 3, 2021 17:41
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Updated spreadsheet added to the OP. There's been a ridiculous number of new SPACs this month and keeping up has been tough. My CCIV opinion: Talks are definitely ongoing, we can be sure of that now.. Bloomberg was the first good confirmation in early January, and now WSJ is the second. If Lucid wants to start producing the Air by late spring, they probably need a SPAC to get it done. CCIV is one of the only ones large enough do make the deal, and they're the only SPAC with existing/strong Saudi connections. Overall it's a bullish sign IMO, but it appears we may have to struggle with the waiting game for a bit longer than I hoped.
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Feb 3, 2021 17:41
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FistEnergy posted:Updated spreadsheet added to the OP. There's been a ridiculous number of new SPACs this month and keeping up has been tough. Hey this thread and your spreadsheet are great. Could I make a small request? Could you add a "added to list" date column? It would also be nice to know when you remove things from your list, but at least being able to know whats new would be a great benefit. I realize it's extra work so I totally understand if you don't wanna 
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Feb 3, 2021 17:52
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FistEnergy posted:Updated spreadsheet added to the OP. There's been a ridiculous number of new SPACs this month and keeping up has been tough. Highly appreciate all the info you're sharing here! I'm curious about how the rest of us should view the spreadsheet - is it basically 'all the ones you're keeping an eye on'? Or ones you're in? I figure it's not 'buy into these', because, if we follow your philosophy, the ship has sailed on many since they're over 10-12.
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Feb 3, 2021 17:56
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Yes, I was planning on mentioning when I remove things. RPLA almost got the axe this time because the merger is not being well-received, but it's so close to NAV that it's almost zero risk pre-merger. I'll add a Date Added field next time. Great idea, thanks. Nosre posted:Highly appreciate all the info you're sharing here! It's a mixture of ones I'm already in and ones I'm watching. Since I don't hold through merger, everything on the list should always have NAV protection. I think it's better if I don't include my positions because I don't want to influence anyone. My original, private versions had additional columns for my position size and my average cost. I took those out. FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Feb 3, 2021 |
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Feb 3, 2021 17:57
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Roger that, thanks. I love the low-risk element of the strategy if you get in near-NAV, but that means I'm gonna stick to watching from the sidelines about CCIV/IPOD/IPOF/and the other 'expensive' ones.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:09
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FistEnergy posted:Updated spreadsheet added to the OP. There's been a ridiculous number of new SPACs this month and keeping up has been tough. Thanks for making a killer OP even better by updating it. Half of me wants to try selling CCIV when it jumps and buying right back in when it dips but the FOMO of these swings is nothing compared to what I’d feel if they made real moves while I wasn’t holding, so I’ll keep sitting on my hands.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:15
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devilmonk posted:Sorry if I missed it, but what are the thread experts’ opinion on SPCX ? It’s a SPAC and new issue ETF that I’ve had on my watch list but that’s all I know. Yeah, I'm also curious about the thread's opinions of SPCX.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:16
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https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/on-eve-of-first-launch-firefly-revamps-board-of-directors-may-go-public/ Firefly Aerospace might be going public. quote:Markusic said Firefly has not yet made a decision about whether to seek additional funding from private investors or pursue public options. The company has had interest from several special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs. I'm curious which SPACs are interested so I can be interested in them. edit: speculation in the comments section are PIPP or ZNTE ickna fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Feb 3, 2021 |
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Feb 3, 2021 18:22
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Feedbacker posted:Yeah, I'm also curious about the thread's opinions of SPCX. You're paying a dude 1% of your money to actively pick and sell SPACs for you. I read the prospectus and it doesn't seem like anything special. It's not like its getting founders shares. Maybe it can early access to SPAC IPOs and therefore buy closer to NAV? But I couldn't tell you because they don't really have any information on strategy beyond "buy low and sell high." It's not like SPACs are great investments. We're speculating and hoping that we can make a nice profit before the post-merger blues. There is no value in what we're buying beyond the NAV. In fact, we all know the price will crash post-merger. The goal here is to make a nice profit by selling it to a bag holder pre-merger.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:24
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FistEnergy posted:Updated spreadsheet added to the OP. There's been a ridiculous number of new SPACs this month and keeping up has been tough. What's a reasonable "goal" for price per share? I'm tempted to jump in with it sub $30 at the moment. edit - gently caress it, im in at $29.70 GramCracker fucked around with this message at 18:28 on Feb 3, 2021 |
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Feb 3, 2021 18:26
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thats not candy posted:insane that people dumped that much based on a tweet but it was probably all stop loss did you finish rolling your calls during the dip? I think you successfully just timed the market if you did.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:30
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Any reason snpr is up?
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Feb 3, 2021 18:35
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BFT is also up almost 10% based off of.... nothing???
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Feb 3, 2021 18:44
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FTOC with another big bump, even after the original merger news bump
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Feb 3, 2021 18:46
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Scarodactyl posted:Any reason snpr is up? I think it’s just heading back to pre-GME distraction prices which was mid-13s for no reason.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:49
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pixaal posted:did you finish rolling your calls during the dip? I think you successfully just timed the market if you did. yeah im all back in at march with more than i had thanks to that crash. hedging some with puts i bought this morning although i already flipped half of them for 30% return lol
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Feb 3, 2021 18:51
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GramCracker posted:What's a reasonable "goal" for price per share? I'm tempted to jump in with it sub $30 at the moment. I originally said 30-35, but we're there with nothing concrete. I'm going to say 50+ and leave it at that so I don't get my hopes up too much and I'll more than likely be pleasantly surprised. If there's no announcement, CCIV drops to 11. An agreement moves it to 50+. So 30 is right in the middle, and holding is EV neutral assuming it's a 50/50 chance of merger. Personally I believe it's a 90% chance or better, so I'm holding. There's nothing wrong with taking profits though. That's my usual style.
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Feb 3, 2021 18:52
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Pilfered Pallbearers posted:FTOC with another big bump, even after the original merger news bump Tempting to sell right now for 10% gain. Hold till LOI?
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Feb 3, 2021 18:54
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FistEnergy posted:I originally said 30-35, but we're there with nothing concrete. I'm going to say 50+ and leave it at that so I don't get my hopes up too much and I'll more than likely be pleasantly surprised. Got it, appreciate the thoughts here
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Feb 3, 2021 19:04
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Nitramster posted:Tempting to sell right now for 10% gain. Hold till LOI? Still going so I'm still holding.
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Feb 3, 2021 19:10
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I made my first bit of money EVER from following along. Thanks dudes.
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Feb 3, 2021 19:27
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Wee, made the right call (so far) on cciv yesterday and out with +12% on ftoc today. I am a spac genius at getting lucky! Also conx 4% jump today for no reason I can find?
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Feb 3, 2021 21:52
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Just to make sure I understand. If I’m looking for a SPAC to throw money at, the one with the most upside and least downside would be one with the most assets/highest trust value, trading at as close as possible to NAV/$10 run by people previously involved with successful mergers and looking to invest in something sexy like tech? Has anyone looked into whether any particular factor counts more than the others?
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Feb 3, 2021 22:04
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there's a strategy? i just pick the ones y'all talk about
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Feb 3, 2021 22:06
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I choose 4 letters of the alphabet and it's game time
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Feb 3, 2021 22:09
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How long after an announcement does the merger vote generally take place?
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Feb 3, 2021 22:10
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Is there a way to view historical warrant data, for, say, HYLN and QS? I seem to recall their warrants going into the >$60 range and I’d like to go back and track it against their respective commons.MAYO FETISH posted:I choose 4 letters of the alphabet and it's game time When FUSE pops I’m shovelling it all into LMAO units.
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Feb 3, 2021 22:13
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gay picnic defence posted:Just to make sure I understand. If I’m looking for a SPAC to throw money at, the one with the most upside and least downside would be one with the most assets/highest trust value, trading at as close as possible to NAV/$10 run by people previously involved with successful mergers and looking to invest in something sexy like tech? Not necessarily. Premium spacs might do more. AACQ might hit $14 from $11.00. HUGE trust, near-nav, great team. CCIV might hit 70. Trading at $30.00. Who knows. We're all flying by the seat of our pants here.
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Feb 3, 2021 22:15
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I put labels into shells and shuffle them around the table, the lucky winner is the shell Corp for me
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Feb 3, 2021 22:17
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shake up your bananagrams and dump out 4 letters
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Feb 3, 2021 22:18
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I eat scrabble tiles and let nature take its course
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Feb 3, 2021 22:24
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Woodchip posted:there's a strategy? i just pick the ones y'all talk about That’s what I did. Course now I’m talking about them and hoo man I have no idea what I’m doing. Serious post: check out the OP and his effort posts. They’re great.
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Feb 3, 2021 22:47
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Somebody just put down like 26 million on CRHC commons at 10.95 right at 4pm close. I like them anyway, so I added more to my position. That's a huge bet on a near NAV SPAC. Very unusual. Definitely a good bet, note I am not a trading professional.
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Feb 3, 2021 22:48
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FistEnergy posted:Somebody just put down like 26 million on CRHC commons at 10.95 right at 4pm close. I like them anyway, so I added more to my position. That's a huge bet on a near NAV SPAC. Very unusual. Definitely a good bet, note I am not a trading professional. Someone also put down $22.5 million on IPOF commons right at the 4p.m. close too. Something is afoot.
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Feb 3, 2021 22:59
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Nice! That's too rich for me to spend margin, but it's a good bet if you've got the cash or risk appetite.
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Feb 3, 2021 23:00
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gay picnic defence posted:Just to make sure I understand. If I’m looking for a SPAC to throw money at, the one with the most upside and least downside would be one with the most assets/highest trust value, trading at as close as possible to NAV/$10 run by people previously involved with successful mergers and looking to invest in something sexy like tech? I haven't done any actual analysis, but have some anecdotes. Higher trust value gets more attention but isn't an indication of most upside post rumor/LOI. KCAC was a $200M trust and QS peaked at $132. With more money the targets can be larger, but may have too much to get a tiny company that ends up popping off. Previously successful teams does seem to be an indicator that something will happen sooner with some groups on their 4-5th deals of the last 2 years. Theory being they have assessed many potential companies as part of their first searches and their follow-up SPACs have a better short list. SPRQ finding a target already is a good example, but VCVC just found a target less than 3 months in and the closest thing they had to previous SPAC experience was a DraftKings exec on their board. It is harder to get in near NAV with these, especially if the previous SPAC was really good. SPRQ commons never traded below $11. Target sector is important, but groups like Churchill and Gores and Social Capital are willing to grab anything (with good ability to get targets but mixed performance results). THCB was looking for a weed target and ended up in EV batteries somehow.
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Feb 3, 2021 23:02
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CRHC is climbing slowly AH. Now at $11.30. No news today about it.
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Feb 3, 2021 23:50
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