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Uncle Lloyd
Sep 2, 2019

punk rebel ecks posted:

All this ARK talk has me really regret investing in them.

I assume it would be best to set a sell limit at where I break even and jump out ASAP?

My whole idea of investing in ETFs is so that I can have someone else pick funds for me who's game plan isn't "Jesus take the wheel!"

See in general I want agree, but on the other hand, Jesus didn't buy BB at $16.xx, I did. So maybe "God told me to" actually is the way to buy stocks.

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Alchenar
Apr 9, 2008

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

Im still really new to this, but even for me its shocking how many people I encounter on social media who are still holding onto last weeks meme stock hoping it will go back up. I started first reading about investing about a year ago and dont recall seeing anything like this before. Fortunately, most of the people seem capable of losing the money they put in but there has got to be some kind of long term consequence to all this and it cant be good.

Stock bubbles have been a thing for as long as the market has existed. Some people will always be in a rush to be parted from their money.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



get me HQ! posted:

I'm interested in potential long-term growth in psychedelic medicine. I see there's a recently-launched ETF in this space, HPSYF, with holdings in about 10 different companies. What considerations are there in terms of buying into the ETF vs. just looking at their list of holdings, doing a little DD of my own, and buying some of those stocks myself? The tradeoffs I can see are 1) paying the ER vs. doing the :effort: of my own DD on individual companies and 2) diversification in the ETF vs. the potential for bigger gains if I own individual stocks and one of em goes crazy.

that's generally the tradeoff between a sector ETF and just buying the individual stocks. if you want to buy every individual stock in a sector you also have to keep an eye out for new stocks that will appear so you can buy them, and presumably rebalance every now and then. That kind of busy work is what the fund managers say they're doing with the management fees.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Uncle Lloyd posted:

See in general I want agree, but on the other hand, Jesus didn't buy BB at $16.xx, I did. So maybe "God told me to" actually is the way to buy stocks.

if it worked for Malachi Constant it can work for me

paternity suitor
Aug 2, 2016

I’m pretty happy with my 40% return on CCL, rolling that into JETS

Arzakon
Nov 24, 2002

"I hereby retire from Mafia"
Please turbo me if you catch me in a game.

movax posted:

DMYI named its target — how does the SPAC cycle go again? I don’t have a lot (only 75 shares) and lol at the idea of staying in a quantum computing company right now... there’s the first pop after target confirmation, then a pull back, usually another one when it’s actually approved by shareholders, and then usually craters (at least for EVs) upon ticker change as all the initial holders cash out?

There is no SPAC cycle anymore because everyone knows there is a SPAC cycle.

I bought a little DMYIW this morning because Quantum Computing Backed By Bill Gates is the kind of bullshit that explodes.

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

Arzakon posted:

There is no SPAC cycle anymore because everyone knows there is a SPAC cycle.

I bought a little DMYIW this morning because Quantum Computing Backed By Bill Gates is the kind of bullshit that explodes.

The game has changed is all.. the game is “either you’re really early in a rumor or you aren’t.” Before there was some time to work. Or you have a bunch of money in a bunch of potential spacs early.

Shammypants fucked around with this message at 18:26 on Feb 24, 2021

thalweg
Aug 26, 2019

Starting to feel like maybe i dont want to hold ARKF rn?

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
There's myriad reasons to feel that way but just be advised that Weirdo Prosperity Gospel Christianity often comes with the territory of money touchin'

Flowers for QAnon
May 20, 2019

Is there a way to quantify the risks for an ETF outside of the performance of its holdings? (Let’s use ARKF as an example)

drunken officeparty
Aug 23, 2006

Everyone knows the more money you have the more god likes you.

punk rebel ecks
Dec 11, 2010

A shitty post? This calls for a dance of deduction.

thalweg posted:

Starting to feel like maybe i dont want to hold ARKF rn?

ARKF is the only one I may still be keeping since their holdings actually seem pretty good.

Scarodactyl
Oct 22, 2015


Wish I'd put more into dmyi. Just took my 36%.

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

Alchenar posted:

Stock bubbles have been a thing for as long as the market has existed. Some people will always be in a rush to be parted from their money.

This is true. I guess what I really find kind of upsetting is how they all seem to hope the stocks they bought in on will have another run and theyll be able to get their money back. So they just sit on the stock waiting and watching and making GBS threads up social media about how they really think theyre going to get their money back. I suppose that has been a thing for as long as markets have existed too. Its like watching a whole new generation of bag holders getting born into the world.

Le Saboteur
Dec 5, 2007

I hear you wish to ball, adventurer..

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

This is true. I guess what I really find kind of upsetting is how they all seem to hope the stocks they bought in on will have another run and theyll be able to get their money back. So they just sit on the stock waiting and watching and making GBS threads up social media about how they really think theyre going to get their money back. I suppose that has been a thing for as long as markets have existed too. Its like watching a whole new generation of bag holders getting born into the world.

Its just not logical, how can you look at a company like GME and think its a company whose stock is actually worth anywhere near to what it was pumped up to be. Its like they're hoping that another pump will occur which seems quite impossible now that funds have repositioned themselves on GME.

To me the whole GME thing on WallStreetBets seems like a complete con job by guys life DFV who already had huge positions in it to pump them up and gently caress over the rest.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Le Saboteur posted:

Its just not logical, how can you look at a company like GME and think its a company whose stock is actually worth anywhere near to what it was pumped up to be. Its like they're hoping that another pump will occur which seems quite impossible now that funds have repositioned themselves on GME.

They don't know that the party is over. Celebrity billionaire Mark Cuban came on reddit and told everyone to keep holding because this is just a minor blip. And iirc "watch out for the market makers colluding and changing the rules so they can exit their positions while everyone on the other side is locked out" isn't covered by Benjamin Graham or on investopedia.

Zerstorung
Jun 27, 2008

Le Saboteur posted:

Its just not logical, how can you look at a company like GME and think its a company whose stock is actually worth anywhere near to what it was pumped up to be.

Devil's Advocate:
Are there any stocks right now that are actually worth anywhere near what they're pumped up to be?
You can go on and on about how TSLA's product development isn't keeping up with the hype, so their valuation is insanely above their probable market share once EVs are saturated, but the simpler thesis is "who the gently caress can afford to buy a car at all in the next 3 years?", which also happens to take the other auto manufacturers down with them.

Demand for literally everything is going to remain down for a long time because a significant portion of the country only has a roof over their heads because of stimulus checks and eviction moratoriums. We went from a market based on things people buy, to a market based on things millionaires buy, to what is now entirely a government-subsidized casino.

Turns out Supply and Demand theory goes out the window when demand disappears and number isn't allowed to go down. So at that point what's actually the difference between cars nobody's buying and failed mall retailers nobody's shopping at?

Burn Zone
May 22, 2004



Zerstorung posted:

Devil's Advocate:
Are there any stocks right now that are actually worth anywhere near what they're pumped up to be?
You can go on and on about how TSLA's product development isn't keeping up with the hype, so their valuation is insanely above their probable market share once EVs are saturated, but the simpler thesis is "who the gently caress can afford to buy a car at all in the next 3 years?", which also happens to take the other auto manufacturers down with them.

Demand for literally everything is going to remain down for a long time because a significant portion of the country only has a roof over their heads because of stimulus checks and eviction moratoriums. We went from a market based on things people buy, to a market based on things millionaires buy, to what is now entirely a government-subsidized casino.

Turns out Supply and Demand theory goes out the window when demand disappears and number isn't allowed to go down. So at that point what's actually the difference between cars nobody's buying and failed mall retailers nobody's shopping at?

AAPL comes to mind

numberoneposter
Feb 19, 2014

How much do I cum? The answer might surprise you!

ahh nice 3 of my stocks had big institutional share deals over the past week

probably a good thing in the long run though but coulda had some juicy profits, oh welp

Space Fish
Oct 14, 2008

The original Big Tuna.


jokes posted:

It didn’t have to be religious. Vanguard isn’t, like, a military thing. Names are names, they’re usually stupid.

It could have been them talking about having the biggest boat and surviving where everyone else fails. The fact that it went to the ark of the covenant instead of Noah’s Ark is even weirder.

Vanguard's name is military history thing:

Stay The Course by John Bogle posted:


With only weeks to go before our new firm's incorporation, we still had no name for the new firm. Fate, as it had done so often during my career, smiled again. Completely by coincidence, I came across a reference to HMS Vanguard, Lord Nelson's flagship at the Battle of the Nile in 1798.

In the late summer of 1974, a dealer in antique prints came by my office with some small engravings of the British military battles during the Napoleonic War era, illustrating the triumphant forces under the Duke of Wellington, for whom Mr. Morgan had named his first mutual fund 46 years earlier.

When I bought his prints, he offered me some companion prints of the British naval battles of the same era. Ever enticed by the sea and its timeless mystery, I bought them, too. Delighted, the dealer gave me the book from which they had been removed.

Much as I had browsed through Fortune in Firestone Library 25 years earlier, I browsed through the pages of Naval Battles of Great Britain 1775-1815, the book that had been given to me. When I turned to the saga of the historic Battle of the Nile, I was impressed. There, Lord Nelson's fleet sank almost every French fighting ship, while losing but a single English frigate, still the most complete naval victory in history. Napoleon's dreams of world conquest were over. At the close of Nelson's triumphant dispatch to the British Admiralty, it was Lord Horatio Nelson's signature, right below the name of his flagship: "HMS Vanguard, off the mouth of the Nile." With neither a second's hesitation nor a single consultant, I decided that "Vanguard" would be the name of the firm I would soon create. The name of Nelson's flagship, the parallels to the Duke of Wellington's conquests, the proud naval traditions embodied in Lord Nelson's leadership, and the meaning of the word itself ("leader in a new trend") were more than I could resist.

Gone Fashing
Aug 4, 2004

KEEP POSTIN
I'M STILL LAFFIN

Zerstorung posted:

Devil's Advocate:
Are there any stocks right now that are actually worth anywhere near what they're pumped up to be?
You can go on and on about how TSLA's product development isn't keeping up with the hype, so their valuation is insanely above their probable market share once EVs are saturated, but the simpler thesis is "who the gently caress can afford to buy a car at all in the next 3 years?", which also happens to take the other auto manufacturers down with them.

Demand for literally everything is going to remain down for a long time because a significant portion of the country only has a roof over their heads because of stimulus checks and eviction moratoriums. We went from a market based on things people buy, to a market based on things millionaires buy, to what is now entirely a government-subsidized casino.

Turns out Supply and Demand theory goes out the window when demand disappears and number isn't allowed to go down. So at that point what's actually the difference between cars nobody's buying and failed mall retailers nobody's shopping at?

im not sure why you would think demand for literally everything is going to be down for a long time when it hasn't been, and when the end of a pandemic being in sight is boosting consumer confidence and already carrying companies that got hit the hardest by the covid downturn to previous, and sometimes new, highs.

also its really stupid and boring imo to endlessly argue about the valuation of tsla

Yomofo717
Nov 1, 2020
I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.

Le Saboteur
Dec 5, 2007

I hear you wish to ball, adventurer..

Yomofo717 posted:

I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.

Depends if you're in it for the short or long run I think. Considering the oncoming reverse merger is at a per share price of $15 it seems it could be down quite a bit in the short term but with potential for a lot of growth long term for Lucid if their fundamentals are strong so I think thats where you need to decide what you're in for with them.

Grem
Mar 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 20 days!

Yomofo717 posted:

I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.

Sell dude, ride is over for cciv

Teeter
Jul 21, 2005

Hey guys! I'm having a good time, what about you?

Le Saboteur posted:

Its just not logical, how can you look at a company like GME and think its a company whose stock is actually worth anywhere near to what it was pumped up to be. Its like they're hoping that another pump will occur which seems quite impossible now that funds have repositioned themselves on GME.

To me the whole GME thing on WallStreetBets seems like a complete con job by guys life DFV who already had huge positions in it to pump them up and gently caress over the rest.

I had a bunch of friends jump in to investing with GME and I've been alarmed at what is going on. It really is devoid of any logic.

  • What price do you expect the stock to rise to?
  • What makes you believe that it will rise to that level?
  • How long do you expect it to take before it reaches this target?
  • Is there an alternative stock or ETF that could hit a higher target, or reach it sooner?

I'm an investor dummy so I generally don't have the answers to these questions but at least I'm aware that they should be considered when making a purchase. If I ask this to GME holders they mostly shrug because stocks only go up.

Like I bought some BB, and I do agree that it could have value as a long term hold, but the fact is that it already lost me some money and it would be stupid to continue holding as if there's some sentimental reason why that specific stock needs to be the one to earn my money back. The value is already gone, sure I could hold it and maybe eventually break even just so I can say my BB trade wasn't a fail but selling the loss and buying something that sucks less can make me way more.

I watched my friends hold GME from $30 to $450 and all the way back down to $50 where they still have it and I cannot comprehend what the hell they are doing. They even pull the whole "it was money I could afford to lose" as if it's only a few hundred they're out while their unrealized gains push 5 figures.

Teeter fucked around with this message at 19:57 on Feb 24, 2021

John F Bennett
Jan 30, 2013

I always wear my wedding ring. It's my trademark.

Yomofo717 posted:

I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.

But what is there to believe in? You shouldn't bring any emotions in this, maybe you can sell and use the money for something else instead.

iSurrender
Aug 25, 2005
Now with 22% more apathy!

Le Saboteur posted:

Depends if you're in it for the short or long run I think. Considering the oncoming reverse merger is at a per share price of $15 it seems it could be down quite a bit in the short term but with potential for a lot of growth long term for Lucid if their fundamentals are strong so I think thats where you need to decide what you're in for with them.

Im going with: If you think it's gonna go down before it goes up again then sell now and re-buy later.

jokes
Dec 20, 2012

Uh... Kupo?

Space Fish posted:

Vanguard's name is military history thing:

Well, poo poo.

Teeter
Jul 21, 2005

Hey guys! I'm having a good time, what about you?

Yomofo717 posted:

I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.


This point really hit home for me and is maybe something for you to consider:

SPAC asymmetry with a $10 pre-merger floor is your best friend. A 30% move in a SPAC from $10 -> $13 is FAR superior than in a SPAC from $45 -> $60. Risking $0 to make $3 way better than risking $35 to make $15. ALWAYS be cognizant of risk/reward.

from here:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/14P5WqiK8-XGTYxSTOAbk2-XL1kqHoUk_U1RxFTejo_M/edit

I'm not advising you to sell or not sell or anything specific but looking at it this way helped me out. Will CCIV go up again? Perhaps it will, though maybe a better question is will it go up more than your alternative options, in a manner that is compatible with your risk tolerance?

Teeter fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Feb 24, 2021

Le Saboteur
Dec 5, 2007

I hear you wish to ball, adventurer..

iSurrender posted:

Im going with: If you think it's gonna go down before it goes up again then sell now and re-buy later.

Considering I just ate some small losses to re-invest for better gains I would agree, if you're at even on CCIV right now I'd pull that money and put it somewhere smarter.

tangy yet delightful
Sep 13, 2005



Yomofo717 posted:

I don't know what to do with CCIV. I'm back to break even. I believe in the company, but I hate watching it drop every day. I feel like if I sell now, I'm just doing the opposite of what I'm supposed to do.

Sell and then keep an eye on the merger and Lucid news post-merger. Buy some point post merger IF you think the price is cheap enough for you to hold for however long you expect it will be to make a percentage gain worthy of your time tying up your money in the company's stock.

DapperDraculaDeer
Aug 4, 2007

Shut up, Nick! You're not Twilight.

Le Saboteur posted:

Its just not logical, how can you look at a company like GME and think its a company whose stock is actually worth anywhere near to what it was pumped up to be. Its like they're hoping that another pump will occur which seems quite impossible now that funds have repositioned themselves on GME.

To me the whole GME thing on WallStreetBets seems like a complete con job by guys life DFV who already had huge positions in it to pump them up and gently caress over the rest.

Social media, and WSB in particular became a giant echo chamber screaming about how they were all going to get rich and the stock was going to hit 1,000 etc etc etc. Then when that didnt happen they spun up a bunch of elaborate conspiracy theories about how various institutions had acted to thwart them and it wasnt the fault of the people pumping the stock up at all. For people that follow politics, that particular situation probably sounds remarkably familiar.

Thats how it happens though. And thats how those people get stuck holding the bag. A whole lot of people in America never learned to distruct social media and are starting to pay the price for it.

Michael Corleone
Mar 30, 2011

by VideoGames
Can I come back now? I realized how I was coming off, as a schizo or coke head. It isn't like that at all, I just get excited about the things I am interested in. I enjoyed the roast last night! I followed all advice and am still holding my NDRA and AAPL, I will post less and more smartly. Also, like the guy who said 'if you put in money you don't care to lose, you shouldn't worry about dips' very true.

Oscar Wild
Apr 11, 2006

It's good to be a G
Being overly excited about daily moves will probably lead to poor decision making over a longer time horizon. I get it, seeing your green number go up a lot is hella fun, that's why we do this.

Quetzadilla
Jun 6, 2005

A PARTICULARLY GHOULISH SHITPOSTER FOR NEOLIBERLISM AND THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY

Oscar Wild posted:

Being overly excited about daily moves will probably lead to poor decision making over a longer time horizon. I get it, seeing your green number go up a lot is hella fun, that's why we do this.

This is why all my numbers are red, so that instead of excitement I am solemnly and pensively reflecting on my sins.

DoubleT2172
Sep 24, 2007

DapperDraculaDeer posted:

Social media, and WSB in particular became a giant echo chamber screaming about how they were all going to get rich and the stock was going to hit 1,000 etc etc etc. Then when that didnt happen they spun up a bunch of elaborate conspiracy theories about how various institutions had acted to thwart them and it wasnt the fault of the people pumping the stock up at all. For people that follow politics, that particular situation probably sounds remarkably familiar.

Thats how it happens though. And thats how those people get stuck holding the bag. A whole lot of people in America never learned to distruct social media and are starting to pay the price for it.

You understand that the Interactive Brokers CEO said, ON CAMERA, that GME was going to hit the thousands a share if they hadn't turned off buying, right?

Grem
Mar 29, 2004
Probation
Can't post for 20 days!

Oscar Wild posted:

Being overly excited about daily moves will probably lead to poor decision making over a longer time horizon. I get it, seeing your green number go up a lot is hella fun, that's why we do this.

People say to zoom out on the graph if you're feeling down but all that tells me is that I got REALLY lucky a couple of times.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.
Everything feels so frothy that I really dread when actual reality finally gets its say.

Le Saboteur
Dec 5, 2007

I hear you wish to ball, adventurer..
Feds dead, baby. Feds dead. https://twitter.com/EmmaKinery/status/1364653449355354114?s=20

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Rabble
Dec 3, 2005

Pillbug

GEOTUS's revenge!

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