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Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1397651863454064647?s=19

Did they just come up with this operation on the fly, what the gently caress.

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wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

Not So Fast posted:

Did they just come up with this operation on the fly, what the gently caress.

Yes.

Is this unprecedented in IR? Anyone know of a case of a country arresting someone on a fly over?

Not So Fast
Dec 27, 2007


Vasukhani posted:

Yes.

Is this unprecedented in IR? Anyone know of a case of a country arresting someone on a fly over?

There was the attempt at it with Evo Morales plane being rerouted because Edward Snowden was suspected to be on board, but that was done by the USA so its fine and dandy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/edward-snowden-bolivia-plane-vienna

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Those situations are nothing alike.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Not So Fast posted:

There was the attempt at it with Evo Morales plane being rerouted because Edward Snowden was suspected to be on board, but that was done by the USA so its fine and dandy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/edward-snowden-bolivia-plane-vienna

US allies closed their airspace to Morales plane, which had the effect of rerouting it but is completely within the bounds of international gently caress gently caress games. Hell when I was flying to Manas on a US government plane Russia played gently caress gently caress games with us and opened and closed their airspace like 4 times, one of the times forcing us to divert to Georgia. It actually illustrates just how insane this is that the US went through that whole dog and pony show because even they wouldn't dare pulling what Belarus pulled here.

It's not a remotely valid comparison.

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
https://twitter.com/NataliaAntonova/status/1397667811728805890

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Well, I'm gonna be honest here. If Batka had called me up at 4 am in the morning and told me that I have 20 min to fake an islamist threat email to the Minsk airport I probably wouldn't have done much better either.

Setting up that proton mail account probably already took 5 min(gotta install windows updates first). Ffs, making the coffee is already 2 minutes minimum

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Not So Fast posted:

There was the attempt at it with Evo Morales plane being rerouted because Edward Snowden was suspected to be on board, but that was done by the USA so its fine and dandy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/edward-snowden-bolivia-plane-vienna

The US didn't report a fake bomb threat what the gently caress. Your comparison is terrible.

e: perhaps more importantly - the US didn't arrest/kidnap anybody from Evo's party nor did they beat them and force them to do a hostage video to air on TV. Evo had to make some detours because of dumb international politics but christ they all got home safely and soundly and the only thing hurt was their itinerary.

Not a valid comparison in any way, shape, or form.

How are u fucked around with this message at 00:45 on May 27, 2021

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Love to use my extremely secure protonmail account with my full name and year of birth to send a bomb threat.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

How are u posted:

The US didn't report a fake bomb threat what the gently caress. Your comparison is terrible.

e: perhaps more importantly - the US didn't arrest/kidnap anybody from Evo's party nor did they beat them and force them to do a hostage video to air on TV. Evo had to make some detours because of dumb international politics but christ they all got home safely and soundly and the only thing hurt was their itinerary.

Not a valid comparison in any way, shape, or form.

US/EU block has enough power they can force a plane to land without faking bomb threats, yes.

and the only reason nobody got disappeared that day was because snowden wasn't on board. result would apparently be the same thing if US intelligence wasn't incompetent lmfao

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Truga posted:

US/EU block has enough power they can force a plane to land without faking bomb threats, yes.

and the only reason nobody got disappeared that day was because snowden wasn't on board. result would apparently be the same thing if US intelligence wasn't incompetent lmfao

The power they exercised was simply denying access to their airspace, which is within their rights.

Do you not understand the difference between not allowing a government plane overflight of your territory and hijacking a civilian airliner at gunpoint and forcing them into your territory?

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
one's at gunpoint, the other was at "well you can keep flying and crash into sea when you run out of fuel so you better land now"

end result wouldn't be any different if their guy wasn't on that plane either.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Truga posted:

one's at gunpoint, the other was at "well you can keep flying and crash into sea when you run out of fuel so you better land now"

end result wouldn't be any different if their guy wasn't on that plane either.

I'm not sure to start with this absurd trash.

Yes Morales was forced down by the threat of crashing into the sea in the *checks notes* land locked country of Austria. I too think kidnapping you is the same as not letting you in my house.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019

Jarmak posted:

I'm not sure to start with this absurd trash.

Yes Morales was forced down by the threat of crashing into the sea in the *checks notes* land locked country of Austria. I too think kidnapping you is the same as not letting you in my house.

I mean I think they sorta have a point. If you bascially lock a country out of airspace you can force it to land, no fighter jet needed. But I was asking about literally arresting someone in an overflight.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007

It's a legal distinction, but from an international law perspective a very important one. A country has an absolute right to keep something out of its airspace. It does not have the right to force something into its jurisdiction.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Jarmak posted:

I'm not sure to start with this absurd trash.

Yes Morales was forced down by the threat of crashing into the sea in the *checks notes* land locked country of Austria. I too think kidnapping you is the same as not letting you in my house.

the reason morales had to land was because after he had to turn around and fly around all the countries that closed their airspace to his plane, he could have ran out of fuel somewhere over the atlantic, so he was forced to land to refuel. the countries that abruptly closed their airspace to the plane knew this because any imporant international flight plan is submitted to relevant authorities

the method is more polite, sure, but the result is very much the same. so yeah, forcing down a plane so you get a chance to search it for dissidents is very much not unprecedented, it's happened in the EU of all places, only a few years ago

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/1397785157436940290

is this the D&D karabakh thread?

Budzilla
Oct 14, 2007

We can all learn from our past mistakes.

This or the ME one. The same twitter account posted the the Armenia defence ministry stated that they were captured on their side of the border. So who the gently caress knows what's going on. Although the Azerbaijanis know they can get away with poo poo now that have beaten Armenia into submission.

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

OddObserver posted:

No need to limit to Eastern. Heard of the AFD? LePen?

Yeah, I was trying not to whatabout, but lmao @ the horror of eastern european skinheads from citizens of a country that elected Donald loving Trump and his administration of white nationalists



Belarus had a few deaths in the last couple of days, one was a suicide by a 17 year old persecuted for "riots"

https://mobile.twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1397536358013538308

Another one was a 50 year old political prisoner, the official report says "death by falling due to an accident", tweets from people at the funeral say he was beaten and his eyes gouged out

https://mobile.twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1397680033976786944

Still not clear from reports whether these guys were angels or if they are fascists deserving of death, will update if tankies find something incriminating

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Truga posted:

the reason morales had to land was because after he had to turn around and fly around all the countries that closed their airspace to his plane, he could have ran out of fuel somewhere over the atlantic, so he was forced to land to refuel. the countries that abruptly closed their airspace to the plane knew this because any imporant international flight plan is submitted to relevant authorities

the method is more polite, sure, but the result is very much the same. so yeah, forcing down a plane so you get a chance to search it for dissidents is very much not unprecedented, it's happened in the EU of all places, only a few years ago

No this is dumb as gently caress, a plane having to eventually land because it has a finite quantity of fuel is not the same as forcing it down with a Mig29.

Open a map of Europe and cross out Italy, France, and Spain. Great now you're free to land wherever you want, it didn't even go to a country adjacent to any of the counties with closed airspace, and had enough fuel for a trans Atlantic flight. The plane wasn't "forced down" at all.

Now open a map and circle Belarus. If you don't land there right now you get shot in the face. That's forced down.

Snowden being an actual criminal and not just political opposition, such that other countries are willing to arrest him, does not make the situation the same.

Jarmak
Jan 24, 2005

Also let's be very clear, Morales had enough fuel to go around, but had a malfunctioning fuel gauge so they landed to get it checked. He landed in Austria because Snowden wasn't on board and there was no reason not to, he could have easily landed in Russia instead.

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy
glad to hear it's ok to force planes that could be carrying dissidents to land as long as it's not done by a mig

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Truga posted:

glad to hear it's ok to force planes that could be carrying dissidents to land as long as it's not done by a mig

Closing airspace to planes is not "forcing them to land", he landed due to unrelated technical issues lol

Europe is forcing all Belavia planes to land right now by closing their airspace :( :( :( Is there no limit to the evil of the fascist coalition

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Among the places that Belavia still flys to and where you might theoretically want to go remains:

Russia
Georgia
Dubai

And I have a feeling Georgia might restrict flying too, just to be part of the gang.

In other news Russian PM Mishustin is visiting today and tomorrow while Lukashenko is going to Sochi tomorrow. Mishustin is technically here to talk to our PM but still kind of intensive-ish schedule.

Sekenr fucked around with this message at 13:01 on May 27, 2021

Truga
May 4, 2014
Lipstick Apathy

Somaen posted:

Europe is forcing all Belavia planes to land right now by closing their airspace :( :( :( Is there no limit to the evil of the fascist coalition

i mean, it is an incredibly dumb measure. if you're stuck in belarus you have to fly to moscow first now, all this does is give more money to russian oligarchs lmfao

Somaen
Nov 19, 2007

by vyelkin

Truga posted:

i mean, it is an incredibly dumb measure. if you're stuck in belarus you have to fly to moscow first now, all this does is give more money to russian oligarchs lmfao

Commendable grasp of the cause, effect and intended economic consequences, I see I am dealing with a very smart politics-understanding boy here

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Protonmail confirmed the email to the Minsk airport was sent after the Ryanair flight got diverted. How incompetent can you get, Jesus Christ...

sinky
Feb 22, 2011



Slippery Tilde

Paladinus posted:

Protonmail confirmed the email to the Minsk airport was sent after the Ryanair flight got diverted. How incompetent can you get, Jesus Christ...

Where did they confirm that? Would be pretty hosed up if an email service that sells itself on it's security and privacy confirmed anything about any email on it's system.

GABA ghoul
Oct 29, 2011

Paladinus posted:

Protonmail confirmed the email to the Minsk airport was sent after the Ryanair flight got diverted. How incompetent can you get, Jesus Christ...

Well, let's not jump to conclusions here. We still haven't ruled out some kind of time travel situation. There is definitely nothing the evil neo-nazi west wouldn't do to harm the glorious and most peaceful socialist paradise of Belarus(that wouldn't ever hurt a fly)

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




sinky posted:

Where did they confirm that? Would be pretty hosed up if an email service that sells itself on it's security and privacy confirmed anything about any email on it's system.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...r-idUSKCN2D81HN

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Haha apparently Russia is now banning flights that are diverting around Belarus. Totally normal thing to do, but since pretty much everyone would benefit from not going to Russia, it might be for the best.


E: yeah might be nothing
vvvv

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 16:03 on May 27, 2021

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Kinda hard to confirm this right now - there was an AF Paris-Moscow flight that was denided because Russia needed to issue a new clearance.

Everything that’s up right now are Air China flights that route more northerly. BA/AF/KLM flights to China and Japan that route over Belarus are due in the evening.

Having said that, routing is filed individually for every flight. An airline can choose to file over the baltics or through Ukraine, and it’s decided individually every time. The only thing Russia can block are changes to flight plans already filed.

* Apparently Austrian Airlines got their flight plan rejected, and Air France’s second flight to Moscow did nit take off, either. Uncharted territory here, AFAIK Russia has no ground to refuse these flight plans.

** KLM and BA are going around BY and through Russia just fine , so who knows wtf’s going on

Mokotow fucked around with this message at 17:29 on May 27, 2021

Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!
Some amazing new developments on the email. Apparently the account was created 9 days before the fateful Ryanair flight. Now, Tikhanovskaya, who gave a speech at the Delphi Economic Forum mentioned in the email, flew back to Vilnius on the same flight just one week prior. So basically, it looks like they wanted to get Tikhanovskaya, backed out of it at the last moment for some reason, and then used their first bomb threat draft to get Protasiewicz. This also explains why 'Hamas' would demand ceasefire when it was already accomplished.

Sekenr
Dec 12, 2013




Maybe if it was indeed Russian-run operation, maybe they made the decision to spare her. That would also explain why she is mysteriously gone from their wanted list.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/latimes/status/1397998620381790213?s=19

Another problem this creates is people wanting to leave Belarus are finding harder to get out, and the people already out living in neighboring countries live in fear of the KGB dragging them back.

The Lone Badger
Sep 24, 2007


Which was exactly the point. He doesn't have the budget to novichok people but still wants critics living abroad to be afraid.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

https://twitter.com/NA7AL13/status/1398263777896902658

https://twitter.com/ThatEuroSite/status/1398281150007808004

No more Eurovision for Belarus :(

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE
Don't know about that decision. Eurovision should be for everybody :(

And it's not like this will hurt Batka one bit.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

We don't need to have that dialogue because it's obvious, trivial, and has already been had a thousand times.
And to think people said the EU wouldn't be willing to escalate to acts of war...

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barbecue at the folks
Jul 20, 2007


We must be willing to ask the question: has EU has gone too far?

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