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dxt posted:If having kids makes spending 24 hours (minus waffle time) in a waffle house sound great, then I'm sure glad I don't have any. I even like waffle house. It's 95% agony and 5 % ecstasy, like licking Rex Ryan's feet for heroin. My kids just got into doing charity work and cool video games. If I can just get them to like fantasy football I will be spending all of my spare time hanging with them. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Jun 21, 2021 |
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Jun 21, 2021 20:51
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Hello Goons, I have my dynasty rookie draft starting next week and I feel like I’m being an idiot. It’s full PPR 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/Flex. I have the 1.01 and two late 1sts. My squad is pretty set to contend as I have Kyler as QB, Chubb, Gibson, Hunt, Ronald Jones as RBs, Kittle as TE, and DK and Mike Evans as WR. My WR depth is straight trash as I only got Hollywood as backup. I obviously feel drafting Chase would bring some balance to my team, but starting Chubb, Gibson, and Najee each week has me salivating. I also know I’ll get two good WR prospects late and/or could trade one for a WR2/3 now (Dionate Johnson for example). Anyone have any hot takes on that issue and which late WRs to jump on I’m all ears. I’m leaning Bateman and Elijah Moore at the moment. Thanks for your advice throughout the years!
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Jun 21, 2021 22:07
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I would definitely sell a late first for someone in the RB15-25 range but I'm not sure that gets it done. Where are you sitting in the second? Could you could move of the firsts and your second and see how far forward you can get in the first. Or package em both and get a second top five pick and call your problems done.
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Jun 21, 2021 22:23
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I have aggressively tried to package both to move up and everyone wants to stay put. My 2nd is late. RBs are pretty hard to acquire in my league, thus why I am leaning Najee.
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Jun 21, 2021 22:28
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Alright so I've spent some time reading through stuff on different websites (a lot of what kiimo linked when I asked a couple weeks ago) and I've done some mock drafts on a couple different sites, but I figure it wouldnt hurt to post to see what other kinds of advice you wouldnt find on a website. I'm part of a 12 team Dynasty startup draft; the draft starts next Saturday (a week from today). The lineup is: QB RB RB WR WR WR TE WR/RB/TE/QB WR/RB/TE WR/RB/TE It is PPR with TE's getting an additional 0.5 PPR. We're doing a 3rd round reversal; I'm picking 9th. I did extremely well last year in a 12 team PPR redraft league where I drafted players based on things like target share, vacated targets, average number of touches, and overall team status (I was #1 in points by a good margin, only lost two games (1 by 0.01 points and another by 5)). Obviously one successful draft does not make me an expert but I guess I can say I have some confidence going into this dynasty draft. I targeted specific RBs early then took a bunch of WRs later based on target share/vacated targets and it did me wonders. I've been reading into that kind of data again when doing some Dynasty startup draft planning, also factoring in player age , QB age, and contract status. So I guess I'm not exactly sure what I'm looking for/asking for, I think I'm just terrified of what I dont know since I... 1.) Have never been in a league with all but two of the people in this league before 2.) A number of people are seasoned Dynasty players 3.) I am new to Dynasty With Superflex and 12 players I expect QBs to go early and often. Depending on who is available at RB and QB when it gets to me at 9 I would prefer to go QB if a QB I think is a top flight dynasty option is there since RBs have shorter shelf life and I know you can get decent RBs later on. If a bunch of QBs go before me and Trevor Lawrence is available I'm not sure I'll be able to resist the lure of a homer dynasty QB... AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 17:06 on Jun 26, 2021 |
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Jun 26, 2021 17:04
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9 is a nice spot for a new start up superflex, because your league mates may not value QBs like they should if they don't have much experience. If only Mahomes is gone by your pick, I'd probably grab a WR at 9, and aim for a QB with your 2nd. Protects you from a QB run happening before you grab a top 5 one, while also potentially letting you get QB value later when they fall. If somehow Mahomes isn't gone at 9, he's an incredibly easy pick there. If a handful of QBs go before 9, you still may want to do the above, since that means top tier RB or WR will have fallen, and you can still grab a QB with your 2nd. If you see a tier break at QB, though, don't be afraid to grab one there, much better to have gotten your QBs in order during the start up than to have gambled on some falling and missing out. But generally, I think you just need to see how the draft goes wrt QB and TE and try to calibrate where you need to target them based on your league mates moreso than how you think they should be valued.
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Jun 26, 2021 17:15
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I like to target good value that falls lower than it should. In my recent startup I was drafting 10th and hoping to grab a QB. When 8 of the first 9 picks were QB I took a stud RB instead. I drafted in a startup last year with 100% identical league settings and scoring, also from the 10th position, and the first QB wasn't off the board until pick 9 so I absolutely went QB. Just be flexible. I will say that TE premium with 3rd round reversal gives you a great opportunity to pick up a stud TE early in the 3rd. I'd strongly consider that.
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Jun 26, 2021 17:45
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:I did extremely well last year in a 12 team PPR redraft league where I drafted players based on things like target share, vacated targets, average number of touches, and overall team status Hmmm that seems like a really great strategy I am curious what resource you are using for this, I'm sure I could dig for it just curious if you have a shortcut
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Jun 26, 2021 19:30
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sourdough posted:9 is a nice spot for a new start up superflex, because your league mates may not value QBs like they should if they don't have much experience. If only Mahomes is gone by your pick, I'd probably grab a WR at 9, and aim for a QB with your 2nd. Protects you from a QB run happening before you grab a top 5 one, while also potentially letting you get QB value later when they fall. If somehow Mahomes isn't gone at 9, he's an incredibly easy pick there. If a top tier RB drops I'll definitely jump on it. I'm really hoping to get Antonio Gibson because of how good he looked last year with a covid offseason and being new to the position, how good the WAS OL is, and how Ron loves to run. If he is there with my pick in the second I'm going to take him there I think, because he wont be there in the third, even with the reversal. The Wild Man of YOLO posted:I like to target good value that falls lower than it should. In my recent startup I was drafting 10th and hoping to grab a QB. When 8 of the first 9 picks were QB I took a stud RB instead. I drafted in a startup last year with 100% identical league settings and scoring, also from the 10th position, and the first QB wasn't off the board until pick 9 so I absolutely went QB. Just be flexible. kiimo posted:Hmmm that seems like a really great strategy I am curious what resource you are using for this, I'm sure I could dig for it just curious if you have a shortcut
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Jun 26, 2021 23:51
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Unrealized Air Yards is a great way to find value guys too.  Obviously the big name guys aren't what matters here but I'm nodding at Jeudy and Mooney
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Jun 27, 2021 02:23
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That's an interesting list. If Rodgers goes to Denver Jeudy will no longer be a value. DJ Chark is interesting too. Already getting called out by his new coach let's see if he rebounds
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Jun 27, 2021 03:29
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One other thing that I have been thinking about during my startup drafts this year is that it is always going to be easiest to find a good wr. There's just so many viable wr's. The shelf life of rb's is also shorter than other positions so that means more RB's will be available in rookie drafts that are going to be worthwhile. This all kinda leads me to think qb is the hardest to get later in the life of your team. So going more qb heavy is a positive strategy in startup drafts. Just my 2 cents.
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Jun 27, 2021 13:54
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What is unrealized air yards? When the WR got open but the QB couldnt get them the ball, or it was a bad pass?Artonos posted:One other thing that I have been thinking about during my startup drafts this year is that it is always going to be easiest to find a good wr. There's just so many viable wr's. The shelf life of rb's is also shorter than other positions so that means more RB's will be available in rookie drafts that are going to be worthwhile.
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Jun 27, 2021 15:26
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:What is unrealized air yards? When the WR got open but the QB couldnt get them the ball, or it was a bad pass? Air Yards on incompletions. Curtis Samuel was the unrealized Air Yards guy from last offseason and he was a screaming deal
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Jun 27, 2021 17:57
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Are there plans for fishbowl this year? I feel like I have to ask as the goon representative of the reigning champion
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Jun 30, 2021 21:10
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Scruffy the janitor posted:Are there plans for fishbowl this year? I feel like I have to ask as the goon representative of the reigning champion I want to do it. I even have the OP written and a charity drive hook. However, a close family member is going through potentially permanently debilitating health issue. Until they get a diagnosis I can't commit to anything, anywhere. It's not my son, either, who had huge health issues mentioned upthread. It's been a rough Spring. Sorry for bumming everyone out. Please rank the following: Sbarkles (that's what I call Saquon Barkley) Jay-Tay (that's what I call Jonathan Taylor) Nick Chubb (that's what I call Nick Chubb) Kamara Cook Henry I go 1. Cook 2. Jay Tay 3. Sbarkles 4. Henry 5. Kamara 6. Chubb
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Jul 2, 2021 14:55
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Drunk Nerds posted:
I find it hard to argue with your rankings, but I'd put Chubb above Kamara this year. I'd almost move Chubb to #1 or #2. I think Chubb is going to have a monster year. Also, no CMC in the list. Cuz Darnold?
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Jul 2, 2021 15:05
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I would go 1. Kamara 2. Henry 3. Sbarkles 4. Cook 5. Chubb 6. Jay Tay I discount Cook every year because of injury concerns. Probably unfair but there we are. I can't go lower than 3 with Barkley because there's just too much talent despite the risk he starts slow coming back from injury. Kamara and Henry are proven commodities that seem to produce every year. Jay Tay goes last because he hasn't proven poo poo.
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Jul 2, 2021 15:06
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Spermy Smurf posted:I find it hard to argue with your rankings, but I'd put Chubb above Kamara this year. I'd almost move Chubb to #1 or #2. I think Chubb is going to have a monster year. CMC is his own tier
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Jul 2, 2021 15:31
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Sataere posted:CMC is his own tier
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Jul 2, 2021 15:58
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Drunk Nerds posted:I want to do it. I even have the OP written and a charity drive hook. However, a close family member is going through potentially permanently debilitating health issue. Until they get a diagnosis I can't commit to anything, anywhere. Putting Jay Tay somewhere I can't tell you no. Sneaky sneaky. I have Cook, Barkley, Kamara, Henry, JT, Chubb There's a tier break between Henry and JT, and an Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones between JT & Chubb.
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Jul 2, 2021 16:30
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Sataere posted:CMC is his own tier Put it on the calendar to laugh at me in 6 months if you want, but I think CMC will be 4th or worse out of 7 on that list above.
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Jul 2, 2021 17:58
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Spermy Smurf posted:Put it on the calendar to laugh at me in 6 months if you want, but I think CMC will be 4th or worse out of 7 on that list above. I mean, you should probably always bet the field against the 1.01
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Jul 2, 2021 18:07
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CMC isn't 1.01 because he is for sure going to be 1. It's because he's going to be like 4 at worst, so sure. It's the same reason Trout went 1 for so long in baseball and why Tucker is almost always K1 despite never finishing there.
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Jul 2, 2021 19:00
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Spermy Smurf posted:Put it on the calendar to laugh at me in 6 months if you want, but I think CMC will be 4th or worse out of 7 on that list above. Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me at all, but I think it is equally likely he is modern day LDT for fantasy
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Jul 2, 2021 19:01
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Beer4theBeerGod doesn't post much around these parts so guess what I get to announce for 2021 🙂 https://footballabsurdity.com/beersheet-request-form/
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Jul 2, 2021 20:09
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J Taylor gave me flashbacks to Trent "Runs into the backs of his own OL instead of through the hole" last year, and got a full quarter of his yards against the Jaguars, including 200+ in week 17 when the Jags were finishing the tank. He is at the bottom of that list for me. In other news, I start the 12 man superflex dynasty draft tomorrow and I'm terrified.
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Jul 2, 2021 20:30
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cross posting. better update your draft boards cause Josh is coming back https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1411052772447956993
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Jul 2, 2021 21:10
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Ches Neckbeard posted:cross posting. better update your draft boards cause Josh is coming back reposting from our discord, I did a deep dive into this: I would be surprised if he ever gets suspended again. These drug tests are under the NEW NFL rules: 35 nanograms per sample was the old test, 150 ng is the new threshold If you smoke every day, you probably don't have 150 ng. If you smoke every day but not today, you probably have SEVEN ng/ml https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2784185/ There's a dude in that study who smoked an ounce a day, and on the first day of testing his ng/ml was 0.7 Reading through thed NFL's policy on substance of abuse before my conclusion. But I remember checking this out at the time and thinking "there's no way someone can flunk this" Yep 150 ng/ml https://nflpaweb.blob.core.windows.net/website/2020-Policy-and-Program-on-Substances-of-Abuse.pdf Also no one failed the Substance of Abuse test this year. Gordon might even be a fantasy asset I looked at a lot of raw data: You would have to like actively smoke up 6 hours or sooner before the test to fail Now, the flip side to this is I could only find one study where people were anywhere near 35 ng/ml, and it was people who were actively high. Since presumably some NFL players flunked the test while, you know, not getting high before it, there's some fishy stuff with the data. But the fact that no one flunked a Substance of Abuse test this year tips everything to the "it's really hard to flunk this test" jar. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Jul 3, 2021 |
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Jul 3, 2021 02:45
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Problem is according to Josh he abuses many many substances. If they're still testing due other things he could get popped that way or if they're still doing provisions like they had been before for guys popped for use of all kinds of fun drugs.
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Jul 3, 2021 03:39
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Ches Neckbeard posted:Problem is according to Josh he abuses many many substances. If they're still testing due other things he could get popped that way or if they're still doing provisions like they had been before for guys popped for use of all kinds of fun drugs. Agreed, and you make a solid point. Yet but no other Substance of Abuse lasts in the system as long as THC. For instance, marijuana stays in your pee for a month, but opiates it's 72 hours. Most drugs metabolize into other chemicals in 3 days. He could still piss hot, for sure, but if he was getting busted for THC, which is the most likely, he prob won't this year. Lots of NFL athletes do lots of stuff, but not one of them pissed hot under the new rules in 2020. If it's opioids he is using regularly, which is possible, then yeah he'll probably fail a test for it. Everything else doesn't really have the combination of pain relief and lasting long in the system.
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Jul 3, 2021 03:49
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The 12 man PPR Superflex Dynasty that I've been posting is drafting. Whats the Goon Hivemind's consensus about Dak? I'm not sure if I take him at 9 if Trevor Lawrence is gone. Picks so far are Mahomes, Allen, Kyler, Herbert, CMC, JTaylor. I'm not sure who the next pick will be but I am almost certain the guy right before me at 8 is going to take TLaw, preventing me from taking the homer pick. edit: nevermind, Prescott went at 7. AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 17:18 on Jul 3, 2021 |
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Jul 3, 2021 17:15
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Doublepost because I'm curious on opinions. I wanted TLaw or Dak at 9 and of course they went the two picks before me. These are my options and I dont like any of them: I have no interest in Lamar at all, nor Saquon. Cook and Kamara are RBs on their second contracts so for Dynasty I dont feel like they are good picks. Henry has maybe 1 or 2 good years left unless he's the second coming of Emmitt Smith, and I'm not willing to gamble on that. So I'm sitting here like "... gently caress". I might just take Burrow because I'm high on him and now I'm worried that he wont make it to pick 2.4
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Jul 3, 2021 17:44
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:Doublepost because I'm curious on opinions. I wanted TLaw or Dak at 9 and of course they went the two picks before me. These are my options and I dont like any of them: Maybe see if someone behind you really wants Lamar and trade back
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Jul 3, 2021 17:47
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VietCampo posted:Maybe see if someone behind you really wants Lamar and trade back AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Jul 3, 2021 |
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Jul 3, 2021 17:52
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edit: poo poo, reply is not edit, sorry for the doublepost again. I have people willing to trade from 2.8 and 2.10. I'm thinking I would want their 2 and 3 plus maybe something else farther down? I have no idea about the value I should be asking for...
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Jul 3, 2021 17:57
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I'd try 2nd + 4th + 2022 1st rounder, maybe move it back to 2023 if they balk
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Jul 3, 2021 19:11
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People were balking at giving up picks early in a startup draft so I started offering "swaps and a future pick" but no one bit. Now I have to decide between Saquon, Cook, or Kamara.
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Jul 3, 2021 19:39
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:People were balking at giving up picks early in a startup draft so I started offering "swaps and a future pick" but no one bit. Now I have to decide between Saquon, Cook, or Kamara. Just go Burrow and get a guy you actually want
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Jul 3, 2021 19:49
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Having gone 0rb in a dynasty start up before I don't recommend it. Some trades are paying way bigger dividends than I expected which has saved my rear end.
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Jul 3, 2021 20:10
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