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Deteriorata posted:Afghanistan will have a democratic, Western-style government when they collectively want one. Right now, they've been so traumatized they just want peace and stability. lol you mean "they" as in tribal men with guns. Women? Who cares what they think, they're going to be staying indoors from now on. Sexual minorities? They will be executed. Opposition? They, too. You make it sound like this is the will of the Afghan people as a whole, which it is not. And trust me, Taliban will never yield power voluntarily.
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Jul 6, 2021 18:03
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as always, there's something to be said about appreciating the greater context of how the political situation came to be the way it is, and how the imperialism of great powers reinforced reactionary moires. afghanistan is the example of that meddling-gone-wrong that everyone's grandmother knows. i don't think more imperial meddling will ever help.
Tweezer Reprise fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Jul 6, 2021 |
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Jul 6, 2021 18:09
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Afghanistan is the nation building equivalent of "No! No! Dig UP, stupid!"
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Jul 6, 2021 18:41
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Nenonen posted:lol No, it's not the will of the Afghan people as a whole. The people with the guns tasked with defending the state are throwing down their arms and running away, though. No outside force is going to fight for them. So the Taliban will win by default. How that plays out is for history to tell. Maybe the Taliban will mellow, maybe there will be a democratic revolution. Whatever it is, it will have to come from the Afghan people themselves, not imposed by colonial powers.
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Jul 6, 2021 18:49
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Nenonen posted:lol If the Taliban are the most powerful faction in Afghanistan who are we to stop them? Sure, we have a prerogative to stop genocide, and defend ourselves, but we can't just invade countries for being regressive human rights violators.
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Jul 6, 2021 18:54
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There was certainly no sign of the Taliban mellowing before the war, and now that they have ISIS to outcompete in terms of extremism, there will at least be some continuing pressure not to do so. Some kind of statement or quiet reassurance that they won't harbor terrorist groups could happen though, just so they don't have to worry about getting bombed all the time after they've reestablished control over much/all of the country. Plus, as noted, they have their own reasons to want to root out ISIS.
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Jul 6, 2021 18:54
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Deteriorata posted:No, it's not the will of the Afghan people as a whole. The people with the guns tasked with defending the state are throwing down their arms and running away, though. No outside force is going to fight for them. So the Taliban will win by default. Yes, and what's your point? Just let everyone rot under a zealous dictatorship is an improvement? Global powers will continue bombing them if terrorist organizations take root there and Afghanistan's only real income will continue to be from opium trade which together with Taliban's human rights stance will keep them as a pariah country that no one cares about, so I find it very, very hard to see any silver lining here.
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Jul 6, 2021 18:57
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Nenonen posted:Yes, and what's your point? What's yours?
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Jul 6, 2021 18:59
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Nenonen posted:Yes, and what's your point? Just let everyone rot under a zealous dictatorship is an improvement? Global powers will continue bombing them if terrorist organizations take root there and Afghanistan's only real income will continue to be from opium trade which together with Taliban's human rights stance will keep them as a pariah country that no one cares about, so I find it very, very hard to see any silver lining here. There isn't any silver lining. Sometimes reality sucks and there's nothing you can do about it. The Taliban will be awful and everyone will hate it. We've just seen what happens if outside forces try to fix things. The solution is going to have to come from within Afghanistan itself and it's probably going to be a while.
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Jul 6, 2021 19:01
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FlamingLiberal posted:Absolutely. It was always going to end this way since our continued presence in the country allowed the Taliban to regroup and recruit new people based on their anger at US troops. According to what our media says, the main reasons for this amazing failure was a) the Americans being stupid as poo poo and b) the Taliban having safe havens in Pakistan. Too bad that *checks notes* Pakistan is an US-ally? Well, the main reason seems to be a) Grouchio posted:I wonder how we could've handled Afghanistan differently as to not be garbage at nation building. The German Süddeutsche also complained that nation building started only after about 10 years of occupation, before that the US was more the shoot-and-gun-down kind of occupiers. No wonder the far-too-late nation building didn't work so well They even interviewed German soldiers coming back, they're apparently all like "this is poo poo" and quite open about the effort being a total failure on all fronts. But oh well, at least we built some wells for the Taliban to poison and some girl schools for the Taliban to burn down. Progress!  People here are still mad about that one time in 2009, when a German commander panicked and asked for an air strike. Which the US Air Force dutifully executed, blowing up dozens of innocents together with an unknown, but probably zero number of enemy combatants. Now the way the government is shoving our helpers into the Taliban's claws has exploded into a government scandal. Or at least a minor one, the one where everyone gets mad and then still votes for the same dipshits in the next election. Rinse, repeat. This German opinion peace says it all. Our government tried its best to let the Taliban kill everyone who ever helped us, while the Bundeswehr at the same time promised everyone help. Now everyone is mad at the clowns ruling over us. Carth Dookie posted:The Iraq and Afghan wars and subsequent occupation did exactly what they were supposed to, which was put taxpayer dollars into the coffers of MIC entities. Not even really in our case: We did our effort so cheaply we started running down our cold war ammunition reserves after a couple years. Turns out no-one thought this effort through beyond "we have to help our allies". Edit: Something new I just saw: Tajikistan is mobilizing 20k reserve soldiers after the recent flight of Afghan soldiers across the borders. They're apparently seriously spooked by the sudden uptick in fighting.
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Jul 6, 2021 19:15
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I really, really hope we do right by the thousands of Afghans (+ their families) who worked with us over the decades. We need to bring them over and give them new lives in the states. They loving earned it, christ.
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Jul 6, 2021 19:19
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Libluini posted:According to what our media says, the main reasons for this amazing failure was a) the Americans being stupid as poo poo and b) the Taliban having safe havens in Pakistan. No they're not, that was a convenient fiction. I think the Pakistan angle is overplayed, but Pakistan was absolutely supporting the Taliban in various forms for at least most of the last 20 years. How are u posted:I really, really hope we do right by the thousands of Afghans (+ their families) who worked with us over the decades. We need to bring them over and give them new lives in the states. They loving earned it, christ. Bad news: some will get out, and political leadership matters there, but the US really doesn't have a good track record of taking care of people like that as a general rule. The speed at which this is all unfolding won't help at all either. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:24 on Jul 6, 2021 |
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Jul 6, 2021 19:22
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How are u posted:I really, really hope we do right by the thousands of Afghans (+ their families) who worked with us over the decades. We need to bring them over and give them new lives in the states. They loving earned it, christ. lmao
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Jul 6, 2021 19:33
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Sinteres posted:No they're not, that was a convenient fiction. I think the Pakistan angle is overplayed, but Pakistan was absolutely supporting the Taliban in various forms for at least most of the last 20 years. I agree, I was making a joke about how stupid it is to believe openly hostile Pakistan is an American ally. Over the years, I remember time and again Pakistan pretending certain rogue elements were the ones helping the Taliban, or Osama Bin Laden, or whoever wanted the US to die that very moment. Just a little bit more aid money, and Pakistan would make sure the bad evil guys where gone It all looked like a very slow-paced farce, playing out across the ages I wonder if the US ever stopped giving the regime in Pakistan money, did the US finally learn from this experience? Libluini fucked around with this message at 20:07 on Jul 6, 2021 |
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Jul 6, 2021 19:36
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My bad for jumping the gun on your joke! It looks like Obama increased aid significantly in his first term, and then we went back to giving them basically what they were getting before that, with a slight downward trend since. https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/PAK
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Jul 6, 2021 19:43
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Sinteres posted:My bad for jumping the gun on your joke! At this point, the Taliban should really expect to get away with pretending to hate the Taliban, too. Just get some of that sweet, sweet US aid money
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Jul 6, 2021 20:08
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Nenonen posted:lol This was basically already the case outside of a handful of areas. Women couldn't even get jobs serving tea outside of the most westernized parts of the capital. Homosexuality already carried a maximum sentence of death, and even Americans in Kabul were subject to long term imprisonment. The puppet leaders america rigged into power were either reactionary Pashtun royalty or western NGO freaks who might pay lip service to womens rights when speaking english to Americans, but threw it right the gently caress out the window domestically when in power. The most patronized and supported political factions by the State Dept from the time boots hit the ground were loving jihadi's. Your lamenting the disappearance of a government that didn't exist and could never exist under American control. Tweezer Reprise posted:as always, there's something to be said about appreciating the greater context of how the political situation came to be the way it is, and how the imperialism of great powers reinforced reactionary moires. afghanistan is the example of that meddling-gone-wrong that everyone's grandmother knows. i don't think more imperial meddling will ever help. The idea that we were 'trying to impose' any sort of socially liberal society on the Afghans is lunacy.
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Jul 6, 2021 20:26
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For sure, the US has a strategic interest in women wearing burqas.
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Jul 6, 2021 20:35
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Sinteres posted:Even aside from 9/11, Taliban controlled Afghanistan was an international pariah for a reason, and it really is awful that they're coming back to power. The US definitely made missteps over the last 20 years, and I'm not suggesting every decision along the way was made with pure motives in mind, but I do think what the US wanted for Afghanistan would have been clearly better for the country than what they're going to get. The whole situation loving sucks. Look this is all very simple. The US took a bad situation and made it worse with guns and air strikes. This plan didn't work out well, on the simple account that guns and air strikes is a bad way to change a societies social values. Nenonen posted:Right, Taliban rule was not good by any metric, and if nothing has changed then it will be just as bad. The other question is will Afghanistan become a safe haven for terrorist groups once again, in which case the war will not actually end. It doesn't seem like IS will be able to live amicably with Taliban but some Al Qaida successor cell might get along. Look. The last 20 years happened and I think it's pretty safe to say US intervention has caused more terrorism and human suffering than could have ever been achieved by simply letting al-Qaida camp in central Asia for a few years. Tweezer Reprise posted:as always, there's something to be said about appreciating the greater context of how the political situation came to be the way it is, and how the imperialism of great powers reinforced reactionary moires. afghanistan is the example of that meddling-gone-wrong that everyone's grandmother knows. i don't think more imperial meddling will ever help. No we must never learn. Intervention is always right. Vasukhani posted:If the Taliban are the most powerful faction in Afghanistan who are we to stop them? Sure, we have a prerogative to stop genocide, and defend ourselves, but we can't just invade countries for being regressive human rights violators. This is really all it comes down to. Afghanistan was not invaded to protect human rights, that discursive smoke-screen has been thoroughly debunked by academic scholars as the very strategic PR-move to justify the occupation that it was. Not that they should have had to, it's pretty loving obvious that airstrikes and forever-wars does not improve living conditions for women and minorities.
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Jul 6, 2021 20:43
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It's just unlikely that the Taliban will somehow evolve into progressive democrats, just like it is to think that the Iranian clergy will become less patriarchal and repressive by themselves. Once fascists take hold of a nation, they will not relent without a war. You shouldn't pretend that the bloodshed will end by this.
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Jul 6, 2021 20:51
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Nenonen posted:lol I tend to agree with this point and we have an obligation to at least try to protect them. How hard would it be to assemble a coalition of free western democracies to combat the Taliban?
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Jul 6, 2021 20:53
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Terminal autist posted:I tend to agree with this point and we have an obligation to at least try to protect them. How hard would it be to assemble a coalition of free western democracies to combat the Taliban? Maybe I'm missing another obvious joke here, but we already tried that.
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Jul 6, 2021 20:55
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Nenonen posted:It's just unlikely that the Taliban will somehow evolve into progressive democrats, just like it is to think that the Iranian clergy will become less patriarchal and repressive by themselves. Once fascists take hold of a nation, they will not relent without a war. You shouldn't pretend that the bloodshed will end by this. War with whom? Pakistan? Iran? China? I swear this last page has had some of the dumbest and ignorent takes this side of the actual original invasion.
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Jul 6, 2021 21:04
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Nenonen posted:It's just unlikely that the Taliban will somehow evolve into progressive democrats, just like it is to think that the Iranian clergy will become less patriarchal and repressive by themselves. Once fascists take hold of a nation, they will not relent without a war. You shouldn't pretend that the bloodshed will end by this. Afghanistan has been in civil war for almost 50 years straight - I don’t think anyone believes the bloodshed will end soon. Instead people are simply pointing out that the us invasion likely caused more harm than good, and it certainly didn’t put an end to the much larger continual war that the country has seen.
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Jul 6, 2021 21:19
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MiddleOne posted:Look this is all very simple. The US took a bad situation and made it worse with guns and air strikes. This plan didn't work out well, on the simple account that guns and air strikes is a bad way to change a societies social values. One of the particularly crazy things about this (and it parallels vietnam rather closely) is that this is all part of a 50+ year legacy of catastrophic foreign involvement/intervention/bombings by multiple global powers and every one of them has progressively made the situation far worse. I have no idea practically what the solution is in afghanistan, but another few decades of foreign powers showing up and waging perma-wars against civilians and empowering and enriching corrupt foreign-friendly government officials sure as gently caress is not it. Nenonen posted:It's just unlikely that the Taliban will somehow evolve into progressive democrats, just like it is to think that the Iranian clergy will become less patriarchal and repressive by themselves. Once fascists take hold of a nation, they will not relent without a war. You shouldn't pretend that the bloodshed will end by this. I don't think this is wrong, but there is nothing that the US was meaningfully accomplishing by remaining involved other than delaying the inevitable and enriching the corrupt regime du jour. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Jul 6, 2021 |
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Jul 6, 2021 21:20
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Yeah Afghanistan has been fighting non-ending foreign invasions and civil wars driven by foreign interventions for half a century, without break.
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Jul 6, 2021 21:23
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You can count the number of modern countries that became more progressive by being invaded on one hand. If anything it just gives regressive forces a convenient boogeyman; that egalitarian policy and reforms are the venue of the occupying force, in contrast to the more local and traditional resistance force. No, Afghanistan isn't going to become progressive overnight. I have more faith in organic movements eventually emerging than I do in military forces notoriously bad at fighting guerilla armies suddenly stamping out the taliban & winning the hearts and minds of every afghani after two decades of executions, bombings, and military bases.
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Jul 6, 2021 21:38
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Nenonen posted:It's just unlikely that the Taliban will somehow evolve into progressive democrats, just like it is to think that the Iranian clergy will become less patriarchal and repressive by themselves. Once fascists take hold of a nation, they will not relent without a war. You shouldn't pretend that the bloodshed will end by this. Nobody has actually argued this.
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Jul 6, 2021 21:57
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and protect mining interests From who? I thought all the prospective mining opportunities in Afghanistan were never realized because of the constant warfare and logistical issues outside of Kabul
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Jul 6, 2021 23:40
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Grip it and rip it posted:From who? I thought all the prospective mining opportunities in Afghanistan were never realized because of the constant warfare and logistical issues outside of Kabul The vast majority of the 'untold trillions in Afghan mineral wealth' headlines were stories that were conveniently shopped around either when the US started talking about pulling out of afghanistan or (less frequently) as part of various schemes to raise money for exploratory efforts that almost universally did not pan out. quoting an old post in here Herstory Begins Now posted:It traces back to some old haliburton or USG or something surveys of afghanistan's mineral wealth from ~10-20 years ago. It was big enough at the time to make it into the NYT, but I am 99% sure it was more projections of expected deposits rather than found deposits cuz lol if they actually conducted that many mineral surveys under the taliban and then did very little for 20 years.
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Jul 7, 2021 01:53
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War weariness is a big part of it. A common thread throughout the interviews in Taliban held territory is that people are just happy the fighting has stopped. The modern Taliban are a lot cannier than they were in the 90's too, and have clearly learned a lot since then. They're going out the way to avoid ethnic tensions this time around, especially with their successful negotiations with the Tajik and Uzbek militia's in the north, and their willingness to promote Hazara into leadership positions. If they keep integrating the north like this before they take Kabul than there's really no prospect of a 90's style civil war. Of course, they also massively benefited from the fact that the US counter-terrorism strategy was essentially a speed run guide on how to abuse, terrorize and alienate the population. https://www.justsecurity.org/77290/how-us-funded-abuses-led-to-failure-in-afghanistan/ Ghetto Prince fucked around with this message at 03:03 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 02:47
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Herstory Begins Now posted:The vast majority of the 'untold trillions in Afghan mineral wealth' headlines were stories that were conveniently shopped around either when the US started talking about pulling out of afghanistan or (less frequently) as part of various schemes to raise money for exploratory efforts that almost universally did not pan out. Right, so I'm not following the assertion that the war was to protect mining interests? Seems like mining was a red herring
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Jul 7, 2021 02:53
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Grip it and rip it posted:Right, so I'm not following the assertion that the war was to protect mining interests? Seems like mining was a red herring Before the Soviets invaded, there were some known mineral deposits that were ready to be mined and exploited. However, it all got shut down and never revived once the shooting started. So there are mining interests, but nothing to protect at this point.
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Jul 7, 2021 02:55
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Grip it and rip it posted:Right, so I'm not following the assertion that the war was to protect mining interests? Seems like mining was a red herring More or less? The afghan mineral wealth articles likely did have an impact, but yeah it was never realized or even close to being realized at a tiny fraction of the hyped scale. You probably could accurately say that the war was at least partly about protecting hypothetical future possible mining interests. To be fair though, this is also a statement on the extremely nebulous american goals in afghanistan that didn't really concretely extend beyond 'keep the taliban out of power' and yes that is indeed ridiculous
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Jul 7, 2021 03:09
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I feel like the mining stuff really took off as a conspiracy version of what the US was there for when Trump's naked (if fickle) resource extraction imperialism met Erik Prince and suddenly people started talking about funding an ongoing mercenary presence in the country by selling off the mineral rights. I don't think it was ever a realistic plan even if it had been attempted, and certainly doesn't explain American strategy in the country for 20 years, but it did give the mineral thing meme status.
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Jul 7, 2021 03:27
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Ghetto Prince posted:The modern Taliban are a lot cannier than they were in the 90's too, and have clearly learned a lot since then. They're going out the way to avoid ethnic tensions this time around, especially with their successful negotiations with the Tajik and Uzbek militia's in the north, and their willingness to promote Hazara into leadership positions. If they keep integrating the north like this before they take Kabul than there's really no prospect of a 90's style civil war. Are the Taliban actually integrating Shia Hazara, or do they have to convert to join? That sounds like a pretty dramatic change in identity compared to the 90s Taliban
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Jul 7, 2021 03:28
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Herstory Begins Now posted:More or less? The afghan mineral wealth articles likely did have an impact, but yeah it was never realized or even close to being realized at a tiny fraction of the hyped scale. You probably could accurately say that the war was at least partly about protecting hypothetical future possible mining interests. To be fair though, this is also a statement on the extremely nebulous american goals in afghanistan that didn't really concretely extend beyond 'keep the taliban out of power' Back in the day it was all about how Halliburton (Cheney's company) was trying to get an oil pipeline built through their territory and that's why they wanted to stick around.
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Jul 7, 2021 03:43
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Sinteres posted:I feel like the mining stuff really took off as a conspiracy version of what the US was there for when Trump's naked (if fickle) resource extraction imperialism met Erik Prince and suddenly people started talking about funding an ongoing mercenary presence in the country by selling off the mineral rights. I don't think it was ever a realistic plan even if it had been attempted, and certainly doesn't explain American strategy in the country for 20 years, but it did give the mineral thing meme status. The reality of huge mining operations in particular is that you just can not meaningfully do them at full industrial scale in a country that is in any way hostile to them. Like one rear end in a top hat with a mortar can shut down a huge pit mine and destroy vital ore processing equipment that takes months to replace. And this is before getting into the stable security situation necessary to truck/train/pipe/ship out ore Oil extraction doesn't have the same limitation really and amusingly on that note: last I knew afghanistan actually made a deal with the chinese state oil company for their oil field rights back in like 2011. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:58 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 03:54
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The first high profile promotion of a Shiite Hazara was more than a year ago. It could be a facade , or maybe just a gesture towards Iran, but supposedly the Taliban have been sending out public dispatches to their fighters and field commanders warning them to be careful of multi-ethnic issues as they take control of the country, and the fact that they were able to work with the Tajik and Uzbek militias seems to be a sign that they're serious about it.
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Jul 7, 2021 04:05
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Sewing as the taliban is negotiating with the remnants of the northern Alliance I doubt that the country won't fall into an Islamic federation.
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Jul 7, 2021 06:17
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