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It helps to remember that the current crop of Talibans were predominantly either teenagers, children or not yet born in the decade that preceded the US invasion. These are not the same people. EDIT: Expect them to lovely in different and new imaginative ways, but also not necessarily the old ones. MiddleOne fucked around with this message at 07:21 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 07:17
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| # ? May 25, 2024 17:09 |
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a mullah's council where someone has a pickle rick t-shirt
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Jul 7, 2021 08:28
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i say swears online posted:a mullah's council where someone has a pickle rick (PBUH) t-shirt
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Jul 7, 2021 10:42
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With the accelerating speed of the collapse in government forces' morale and willingness to fight, I'm starting to wonder whether the current government will even make it to September. Nobody wants to be the guy who looks to his left and right and suddenly realises that he's the only one left on the battlefield and the enemy are advancing. I could see a tipping point occuring very quickly where everything disintegrates into every man for himself.
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Jul 7, 2021 10:49
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It's pretty wild how bad we are at not only nationbuilding, but arming, training, and fortifying loyalists. At least the afghanistan warlords can say they're being stumped by a veteran guerilla force, rather than syrian hooligans with US guns ambushing them then having their munitions katamari'd.
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Jul 7, 2021 12:55
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It's difficult to built innate support for an occupier regime. They've been propped up by foreign forces, mercenaries and bribed warlords. When the occupiers leave and the money stops flowing, not much remains.
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Jul 7, 2021 13:31
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They had democratic elections, so while they were obviously dependent on the US in terms of security, suggesting that the Afghan government was inherently illegitimate and basically deserves to be swept aside by the rightful Taliban rulers of the country seems a bit much. I'm not saying their democratic process was perfect, or that their rulers weren't corrupt, just that dismissing them as an occupier regime seems a bit glib.
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Jul 7, 2021 13:53
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i say swears online posted:a mullah's council where someone has a pickle rick t-shirt im pickle gulbuddin!!! im pickle gulbuddin!!!!
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Jul 7, 2021 13:58
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Sinteres posted:They had democratic elections, so while they were obviously dependent on the US in terms of security, suggesting that the Afghan government was inherently illegitimate and basically deserves to be swept aside by the rightful Taliban rulers of the country seems a bit much. I'm not saying their democratic process was perfect, or that their rulers weren't corrupt, just that dismissing them as an occupier regime seems a bit glib. You could argue Karzai had a real constituency, being basically a monarchial claimant, and pretend that elections in Afghanistan were real then. But what's the local faction that Ghani is supposed to have appealed to? His existence as president is the most obvious sign that elections in Afghanistan don't have even a whiff of legitimacy. Dude's just an American of Afghan descent.
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Jul 7, 2021 18:34
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Zedhe Khoja posted:You could argue Karzai had a real constituency, being basically a monarchial claimant, and pretend that elections in Afghanistan were real then. But what's the local faction that Ghani is supposed to have appealed to? His existence as president is the most obvious sign that elections in Afghanistan don't have even a whiff of legitimacy. Dude's just an American of Afghan descent. Care to expand on this? What is so illegitimate about his election? If anything the eventual power sharing agreement between the top two candidates appears ay first glance to represent a very legitimate attempt at forming unity in a new democracy surrounded by threatening forces. Grip it and rip it fucked around with this message at 19:30 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 19:27
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https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/7/taliban-attacks-capital-of-northwest-afghan-province-of-badghisquote:
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Jul 7, 2021 19:27
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Sinteres posted:They had democratic elections, so while they were obviously dependent on the US in terms of security, suggesting that the Afghan government was inherently illegitimate and basically deserves to be swept aside by the rightful Taliban rulers of the country seems a bit much. I'm not saying their democratic process was perfect, or that their rulers weren't corrupt, just that dismissing them as an occupier regime seems a bit glib. Democracy does not inherently make a ruler legitimate any more than a lack of it makes a ruler illegitimate. It is just a set of institutions and those institutions in Afghanistan have been very weak as a direct result of being a mandate enforced by an occupying military power. The 2014 election was scarcely democratic and the 2019 election was not much better. It's not about the Taliban having a right to rule. They can make people fight for them, the Afghan state can't because, in spite of having elections, it is still an imperialist construct with weak and illegitimate institutions. It really is Vietnam all over again.
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Jul 7, 2021 19:51
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I mean, democracy in Afghanistan is always going to run headfirst into the issue that it's borderline impossible to get an actual majority of the population backing anything, including many of the concepts underpining modern democracies.
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Jul 7, 2021 19:53
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Haystack posted:I mean, democracy in Afghanistan is always going to run headfirst into the issue that it's borderline impossible to get an actual majority of the population backing anything, including many of the concepts underpining modern democracies. I mean if I'd rank the issues, 1. Foreign occupation mandate (the thing I went over above) 2. Ethnically and geographically diverse nation (Should Afghanistan be unitary or a federation? Should it even be one nation-state, or several?) 3. Jump-skipping to Universal Suffrage (Always a bad idea, historically very iffy, does not mirror how most of the worlds functioning democracies developed) 4. Warlords (Just never going to be a good time for a democracy, or any state really)
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Jul 7, 2021 20:02
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 It's incredible how the people of paktia found it in their hearts to vote for an American world bank employee with a christian wife, with a heretic and a barbarous turk warlord they all loving hate as his two running mates. Shame this area is a no go zone for most journalists, they surely would have corroborated Ghani's tremendous popularity in the rural tribal areas along pakistans border
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Jul 7, 2021 20:11
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Zedhe Khoja posted:
The governor of that region is the youngest in the country and also has extensive history working with international organizations and NGOs. Do you actually have anything of substance or just some oblique suggestions about voting demographics?
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Jul 7, 2021 21:17
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lmao you just googled paktia and posted some random gibberish about a provincial governor that has nothing to do with the conversation what do i or anyone else give a poo poo about the age of a provincial governor?
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Jul 7, 2021 21:53
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Zedhe Khoja posted:lmao you just googled paktia and posted some random gibberish about a provincial governor that has nothing to do with the conversation Mohammad Halim Fidai is an Afghan politician. He has served as the Governor of Paktia Province since July 2020,[1] and is my personal friend you idiot, which is why i know this edit lol he even read the wiki wrong, he was the youngest governor in 2008 from a different province i say swears online fucked around with this message at 22:03 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 22:01
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there's also the fact that it's an appointed position. as is pretty much everything. There's basically zero local autonomy actually written into the structure of the government. all power devolves from the president, which is a system that makes a ton of sense in afghanistan.
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Jul 7, 2021 22:08
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Despite the kind of absurd notion of running elections in the middle of a civil war- IIRC the way elections work in Afghanistan is that the loser claims fraud and it's all settled behind closed doors anyway so the high publicity votes are just American PR.
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Jul 7, 2021 22:51
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Btw, the actual turnout in the last presidential election (2019) was ridiculously low, 1.7 million out of a country of 32 million people (10 million were registered to vote). Most of those votes came from urban areas. The government clearly has a legitimacy problem. Some of it simply that is was put into place by a coalition of foreign powers, and some of it is that simply rural and urban Afganistan have always been worlds apart. Usually what changes that have occurred in terms of nation-building were generally only in a select few urban areas while most of the rural population went on with their lives. It is also why the Taliban can consolidate control so quickly, they are simply entering a power vacuum and quickly consolidating control of the countryside while the cities themselves become increasingly isolated. That said, it is arguable that the Taliban has the support it has (along with some aid from outside) because their values reflect those rural areas. That said, while the Taliban has learned some lessons from the past, it is also going to be a bit more tricky if they are thrust into the position of ruling from Kabul again. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Jul 7, 2021 |
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Jul 7, 2021 23:44
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After like, 2003/2004, the Taliban probably would have died out had we left the country. But instead they became the alternative to the government propped up by the US that was not really helping anything. You can I guess make the argument that the search for Bin Laden would have justified having a military presence in Afghanistan until 2010, but after Bin Laden was killed there wasn't any reason to be there other than some vague nation building that was never really supported by either Bush or Obama.
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Jul 8, 2021 00:24
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LOL if you don't realize at this point the US was supporting the Taliban for the entirety of the Afghan campaign, helping and supporting Fringe elements inside of the Taliban to cause an intra faction civil war. Obviously it worked out well
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Jul 8, 2021 00:32
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Can't help wondering what the road not taken would have looked like. https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1412925550314893312
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Jul 8, 2021 01:24
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Ghetto Prince posted:The first high profile promotion of a Shiite Hazara was more than a year ago. It could be a facade , or maybe just a gesture towards Iran, but supposedly the Taliban have been sending out public dispatches to their fighters and field commanders warning them to be careful of multi-ethnic issues as they take control of the country, and the fact that they were able to work with the Tajik and Uzbek militias seems to be a sign that they're serious about it. Looks like the US successfully united Afghanistan after all.
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Jul 8, 2021 02:13
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Badpash has fallen. Kabul-Jalalabad road is threatened. This will mean siege on Kabul. https://twitter.com/i/status/1412747330164596738 Taliban looting a base. https://twitter.com/i/status/1412849857828724736 Lots of ammo falling into Taliban hands. Oh and Here's Russia and the CSTO to the rescue: quote:"The Russian Federation is ready to use a military base in Tajikistan to protect allies". Sergei Lavrov noted the "tendency towards a rapid deterioration" of the situation in Afghanistan.
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Jul 8, 2021 04:48
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The Kandahar to Kabul route as well. The Taliban took the Sultan Kehyl base in Wardak last week, and seized the ammunitions and weapons stockpiles intact, so not only do they control the southern approach to Kabul, but they've been re-supplied with the equipment that would have supported the southern outposts and defenses of Kabul. Of course, now that the government has lost the north , that's just one more nail in the coffin. The big hope was to bait the Taliban into getting bogged down in a Jalalabad style battle for one of the provincial capitals, but instead they're maintaining a mobile force of 80,000 or so fighters that are constantly moving from target to target while government forces cling to the provincial capitals. They're only now starting to respond to some of the losses from three weeks ago.
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Jul 8, 2021 20:52
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Ghetto Prince posted:The Kandahar to Kabul route as well. The Taliban took the Sultan Kehyl base in Wardak last week, and seized the ammunitions and weapons stockpiles intact, so not only do they control the southern approach to Kabul, but they've been re-supplied with the equipment that would have supported the southern outposts and defenses of Kabul. But the govt reports they killed 2000000000000 Taliban fighters and the war is over? I love seeing all the loving cunts posting articles about how Afghanistan govt will hod but they may lose half the capital on the process. What a loving joke. Literally all these articles about how Afghanistan will just be all done after our withdrawal flooded the airwaves the second we rolled out of bagram. The country will now be a nightmare. Russia may come in to lift up the government and protect the walls of the capital while signing over resources and US leftovers . But it's over and donefor. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:11 on Jul 8, 2021 |
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Jul 8, 2021 22:23
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:The country will now be a nightmare. Russia may come in to lift up the government and protect the walls of the capital while signing over resources and US leftovers . But it's over and donefor. The country has been at civil war for 50 years and has been a nightmare the entire time.
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Jul 9, 2021 00:27
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:But the govt reports they killed 2000000000000 Taliban fighters and the war is over? Russia is not going back into Afghanistan lol
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Jul 9, 2021 01:06
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Any predictions on how the fight for Kabul goes? Does it surrender? The place gets leveled like it did in the 90s? A coup takes the place down from the inside?
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Jul 9, 2021 01:39
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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:The country has been at civil war for 50 years and has been a nightmare the entire time. You think I don't know that? This is going to be hyper Afghanistan. I mean lots of kids getting molested by the local police. Citizens wacking each turbo. Women are completely hosed in the pre Taliban Kabul domination chaos and hosed in the post. Here's an awful opinion piece in the hill: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/562037-china-will-be-the-next-empire-to-enter-the-afghan-graveyard?amp
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Jul 9, 2021 02:24
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If it happens,I wonder: will chinese troops enter through Tajikistan, through, or will China tame the Wakhan corridor.
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Jul 9, 2021 03:07
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Count Roland posted:Any predictions on how the fight for Kabul goes? Does it surrender? The place gets leveled like it did in the 90s? A coup takes the place down from the inside? I guess the table is open for speculation. I haven't heard that the Taliban have gotten a significant amount of heavy material (artillery/tanks) yet which would probably be requite to take the city by force but at the same time I could see a conditional surrender occur after the Taliban completely surrounds the city and makes any sort of foreign presence (including embassies) untenable. That said, there is certainly a fog of war at the moment (for example the Taliban may be sitting on a bunch of Soviet tanks and rocket artillery under some beige tarps etc.) As for China, considering the their close relationship with Pakistan and the ties between the Taliban and Pakistani intelligence, I would say it is very unclear if they would be traditional occupation rather than a de facto acknowledgement of Taliban control and then a bunch of BRI-style deals. I do think China wants access to Afganistan if only because it is strategically useful for BRI projects connecting with Iran and potentially the rest of the Middle East. The question is how China is going to balance complicated projects like rail/road/pipeline construction in a country with little pre-existing infrastructure and also potentially a government that would be a pariah on the world stage.
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Jul 9, 2021 04:17
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A serious flaw with US training is that it relied on special forces, which meant stripping all the best leaders and troops out of the regular army. That was fine when the US propped everything up, but now that the US is gone it means the Afghan national defense and security forces are surrendering en masse while the commando's are increasingly exhausted and over worked. The Taliban are aware of this, so when the commando's do prepare an offensive they just leave. The commando's retake one or two districts, but in the meantime the Taliban have taken another dozen , and then released most of the surrendered Afghan national defense forces because it makes them look good and lets them keep moving quickly. As for Kabul, it won't fall until the provincial capitals are gone, but by that point any peace offer the Taliban make will probably just be accepted as a fait accompli. As of yesterday, the Government of Afghanistan fully controls about 19% of the country and 33% of the population, so as this continues into August and September there's simply going to be no power base left to continue fighting from. Losing the north was fatal to the government, they can't recover from it. https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan piL posted:If it happens,I wonder: will chinese troops enter through Tajikistan, through, or will China tame the Wakhan corridor. China has been pretty good about avoiding all the traps the US is baiting for them, and this one is obvious to everyone. Remember that the Taliban are no longer funding themselves with volunteers and poppy's, their control of the borders with Iran, Tajikistan and China means that they now oversee trade worth billions of dollars. They've already been making reassurances and some overtures to Beijing about economic projects. There were some expansion plans for the China - Pakistan economic corridor that will probably get moved over to the new government , but that's all long term stuff.
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Jul 9, 2021 04:21
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I wouldn't be surprised if anything that China would push for a more gradual transition than a full "fall of Saigon" scenario. Arguably the government is already doomed without foreign intervention at this point but at the same time, it would be in the interests of China to keep dramatic destruction to a minimum since they have longer-term economic interests for the country.
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Jul 9, 2021 04:32
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Ghetto Prince posted:
I assume the Chinese avoid the trap by coming in to support the fledgling Taliban government against ANA terrorists.
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Jul 9, 2021 04:38
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Biden:" Afghanistan has an excellently equipped army comparable to many modern nations", lists the number 400,000 as total soldiers. It's closer to 40,000.
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Jul 9, 2021 06:13
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There's parallels to Vietnam, but the Republic of Vietnam at least had a functional strategy. The government of Afghanistan has been paralyzed for weeks now , no coherent strategy is coming out , and it seems like they spent the past year fighting over which president really rigged the election instead of doing anything to prepare for the US departure. Part of that is down to how professional the Taliban have become , but it's still a gently caress up of world historic proportions. It's not like they're using any new tactics, except for the use of drones, it's all just the same light vehicle columns they used back in the 90s. The current government is full of people who've seen this before and know how to respond to it. piL posted:I assume the Chinese avoid the trap by coming in to support the fledgling Taliban government against ANA terrorists. By making a pragmatic deal instead of giving the CIA the chance to do something like Operation Cyclone again. If everything completely collapses and explodes into another civil war than China might come in to some extent to secure their own borders , but so would everyone else.
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Jul 9, 2021 06:21
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Count Roland posted:Any predictions on how the fight for Kabul goes? Does it surrender? The place gets leveled like it did in the 90s? A coup takes the place down from the inside? The leaders of the current regime see that all is lost and flee the country, along with their key supporters. Their less important supporters get left behind as the Taliban roll in.
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Jul 9, 2021 07:00
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