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Idiot what are you gonna do, pole vault over the fence?!?
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Jul 20, 2021 05:16
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Hello thread my curiosity knows no bounds when it comes to procrastinating from my day job, so I decided to answer a question that was bugging me which was how many lives has the vaccine saved in the most recent surge of cases seen in the UK? I had excel open, and when I have an INDEX/MATCH-shaped hammer everything looks like a nail, so I did this analysis pretty coarsely. I know it doesn't account for several factors, such as the fact that cases are a leading indicator for deaths, but I am lazy. I also should've excluded the first wave, since the case count with respect to deaths was out of whack due to lack of testing, but I've now closed that dataset and I'm too lazy to get it again. So what I did was:
This isn't even the total number of lives saved, as I am sure vaccines were having a positive effect well before 01/05, but I think it emphasises just how lucky we are to have such effective vaccines so rapidly after a novel strain of virus emerged.
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Jul 20, 2021 06:34
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That's not even half a Wembley stadium. What a fail
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Jul 20, 2021 06:45
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Chief McHeath posted:Also Olympic athletes, since they can't have sex on their beds, might be eating even more rear end this year, it could be a problem. Update from an Irish Olympic gymnast who is in Tokyo right now: https://twitter.com/McClenaghanRhys/status/1416567768938291203
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Jul 20, 2021 07:38
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Yeah, I was just looking at the numbers a minute ago and reflecting that last time cases were like this, we were hitting 600+ deaths a day, whereas now it's 30 - 40. It's still uncomfortable to see the case numbers climbing, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we've turned a corner with Covid and (in the UK at least), it's turning into more of a bloody nuisance than a mortal threat,
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Jul 20, 2021 08:48
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And Singapore is back to no dinning in again, despite government officials saying a few days ago that while the max pax of people in a group would be reduced dinning in would still continue. Looks like the case numbers for today are real bad.
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Jul 20, 2021 09:02
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, I was just looking at the numbers a minute ago and reflecting that last time cases were like this, we were hitting 600+ deaths a day, whereas now it's 30 - 40. The current UK average is 44 deaths a day and rising. The question is how high it'll go and how bad it has to get before they reintroduce restrictions. 100 a day? 200 a day? Pistol_Pete posted:It's still uncomfortable to see the case numbers climbing, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we've turned a corner with Covid and (in the UK at least), it's turning into more of a bloody nuisance than a mortal threat, That's what they're counting on, in yesterday's press conference they were talking about how they were expecting cases/deaths to level out soon and either plateau or start dropping off. That seems like an insanely irresponsible gamble to me (especially considering that 22% of the UK's population are still unvaccinated, that's over 14 million people) but I guess we'll find out pretty soon. 
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Jul 20, 2021 09:19
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“We are beginning to see that everyone who was wearing a mask before is doing so. The genuine can’t wear masks people still have the Daisy lanyard to indicate this, the anti-maskers have just taken the lanyard off.
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Jul 20, 2021 09:31
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:The current UK average is 44 deaths a day and rising. The question is how high it'll go and how bad it has to get before they reintroduce restrictions. 100 a day? 200 a day? What does the flu usually claim in the UK each year? Given that we're told this will eventually have to be treated "like the flu."
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Jul 20, 2021 09:45
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Let’s hope they don’t treat it like preventable heart disease which makes up 25% of all deaths a year.
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Jul 20, 2021 09:52
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freebooter posted:What does the flu usually claim in the UK each year? Given that we're told this will eventually have to be treated "like the flu." It varies widely but between 2014/15 to 2018/19 it apparently averaged out at around 15,000 deaths each flu season in this period which if you averaged it out over a year would be 41 a day.
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Jul 20, 2021 10:00
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learnincurve posted:Let’s hope they don’t treat it like preventable heart disease which makes up 25% of all deaths a year. Yeah but to be fair Bud Light and Big Macs with the large fry don’t float into your mouth through the air
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Jul 20, 2021 10:04
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:The current UK average is 44 deaths a day and rising. The question is how high it'll go and how bad it has to get before they reintroduce restrictions. 100 a day? 200 a day? Well, how bad CAN it get? I did some back of an envelope calculations with the infection rate the other day and estimated that at the current rate, we'd be seeing 75 million cases of Covid a week by Xmas. Of course, that's not going to happen, not least because there aren't that many people even living in the UK. With most adults now double vaccinated and an awful lot of the unvaccinated having already had Covid, there's only so many people in the UK left for it to infect and they strongly trend towards the younger and less vulnerable end of the population. My feeling, looking at the way things are going, is that the virus is simply going to run out of people to infect, plateau, then decline.
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Jul 20, 2021 11:00
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True, but anecdotally it doesnt appear that being double vaccinated is very effective at stopping being infected and mild illness, so I imagine the wave will go on a much longer than people estimate.
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Jul 20, 2021 11:05
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Pistol_Pete posted:Well, how bad CAN it get? Quoting so I can find this post again in 2 weeks  Serious answer: the UK could see several million more cases if the virus is left unchecked (they racked up a million in the last 50 days and case are skyrocketing right now) , at a case fatality rate of 2% that'd be another 20,000 to 60,000 deaths
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Jul 20, 2021 11:16
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With the 50+ group 80% vaccinated however, you wouldnt assume the cfr is around 2%. Its 0.15% currently based on a two week delay.
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Jul 20, 2021 11:35
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Yeah, I was just going to say that 2% is WAY too high. 0.15% sounds much more plausible when you compare infections and deaths over the last couple of months.
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Jul 20, 2021 11:43
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Pistol_Pete posted:Yeah, I was just going to say that 2% is WAY too high. 0.15% sounds much more plausible when you compare infections and deaths over the last couple of months. E: Yeah looks like I calculated that wrong. But the average daily rate of covid deaths in the UK has increased by 600% in the last eight weeks (it bottomed out at about 6 per day on May 24 and has increased to 44 a day on July 19) and is increasing exponentially so I guess we'll find out just how high it goes. Snowglobe of Doom fucked around with this message at 12:51 on Jul 20, 2021 |
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Jul 20, 2021 12:15
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The deaths for new cases have consistently lagged, on average, about two weeks behind since it takes that long for the lethal cases to develop and progress. So a new spike in cases that is still in the process of happening will always have an artificially low mortality when viewed as a snapshot.
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Jul 20, 2021 12:48
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Nam Taf posted:Hello thread my curiosity knows no bounds when it comes to procrastinating from my day job, so I decided to answer a question that was bugging me which was how many lives has the vaccine saved in the most recent surge of cases seen in the UK? ... Rodger is that you?
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Jul 20, 2021 13:55
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To continue travel-chat from earlier I'm not necessarily in the middle of nowhere Switzerland but it's a place that's usually British/European/Asian and it is crawling with Americans. I have literally never heard this much American English since I've been here. A lot of families too.
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Jul 20, 2021 13:56
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The difference between the U.K. and the US at the moment is transparency with the statistics.
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Jul 20, 2021 14:03
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I certainly won't be surprised to see deaths per day in the UK reach back into the hundreds, but I'd be pretty circumspect about expecting it to barrel out of control like it did in Jan-Feb to 1k+
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Jul 20, 2021 14:40
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Jeza posted:I certainly won't be surprised to see deaths per day in the UK reach back into the hundreds, but I'd be pretty circumspect about expecting it to barrel out of control like it did in Jan-Feb to 1k+ Official estimates range between 100k-200k cases a day at this deliberate run of infection. Even if the low CFR remains (due to the demographic and vaxx) that seems likely to make for some big days. The current low CFR is also due to hospitalisations being within capacity, which is unlikely to remain the case for very long.
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Jul 20, 2021 15:11
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Reporting in from the former Plague Island, where Covid is Definitely Over. I work in a pharma factory so business has continued almost as normal. We've been at covid level 5 for most of the pandemic, which means no meetings, WFH where possible, etc. HR let us all know the other day that we can drop down to alert level 4, although looking at their descriptions of the alert levels, we've actually all been working at level 3 for the last year, of course manufacturing people cannot really WFH normally, and every meeting is "business critical". Just a day after the UK's "freedom day", the factory is currently going full plague. Staff and their entire family groups have caught it just after the footy, out of a mere 150 workers here, I personally know 3 people that have caught it in the last 2 weeks, plus numerous others having to isolate. Govt advice has done some ace 720 moonwalking today, with factories being advised they do and don't need to enforce isolating after exposure. Even more fantastically, my supervisor got me to do some coaching recently, which meant I had to spend some time with a lady yesterday who is also now self isolating! If she has the virus, I probably have it as well in spite of masks and trying to keep my distance. I suddenly feel like I need to cough, and have started sweating, despite being double vaxxed. Don't pray for me, I'm already dead.
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Jul 20, 2021 16:34
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Virginia has decided to do something useful and post covid info by vaccination status, updating every Friday. https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
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Jul 20, 2021 16:54
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sharknado slashfic posted:Virginia has decided to do something useful and post covid info by vaccination status, updating every Friday. I can see why they do it but it's still weird and annoying that they calculate the stats for "People Not Fully Vaccinated" and "People Fully Vaccinated" via completely different methods. In the first case they take the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths and tell you how many of those people weren't fully vaccinated, and in the second case they take the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths and divide them by the number of fully vaxxed Virginians, which is 4.5 million. I've seen a lot of dashboards doing the exact same thing and it's usually completely unnecessary because if they calculated both values the same way it would still makes the fully vaxxed stats look great.
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Jul 20, 2021 17:16
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OkI think I got the real deal for dose 3 yesterday. Today my arm is still pretty sore, I had very minor muscle aches last night and I feel pretty tired. Symptoms seem significantly weaker than dose 2 so far.
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Jul 20, 2021 18:49
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The UK border patrol to not check Covid compliance or passenger locator forms from Green and Amber countries. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...obox=1626799223 They basically outsourcing it to the airlines and have "robust compliance checks" through audits. My initial reaction would be lolling but it might reduce the chances of Heathrow being a petri dish of plagues all over the world a little bit. Airlines are,in general, quite risk averse and not let you fly anyway for like one antivaxxer slipping through because they didn't get checked by the border police.
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Jul 20, 2021 19:21
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The Boris Virus
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Jul 20, 2021 19:23
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AHH F/UGH posted:Yeah but to be fair Bud Light and Big Macs with the large fry don’t float into your mouth through the air Maybe we'll all live to see the glorious future where they do.
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Jul 20, 2021 19:29
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When US Canada border opens the plague will truly reach unstoppable levels
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Jul 20, 2021 21:26
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bradburypancakes posted:The UK Chief scientific adviser did misspeak in a press conference earlier today The UK is a joke rear end country
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Jul 20, 2021 22:05
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It's 'arse' actually.
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Jul 20, 2021 22:43
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Charliegrs posted:Is there any information on what the typical covid hospital stay ends up costing the patient? Obviously I'm talking about the US and not a civilized country. Bankruptcy or suicide usually if they aren’t cartoon villain rich
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Jul 20, 2021 23:40
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Mush Mushi posted:68% of the population double jabbed, 60% of hospitalizations double jabbed? I’m fully onboard with the vaccines but can’t we just admit that this is bad news no matter how you wrangle the data? "68% of the population double-jabbed" is the wrong metric, since the vast majority of hospitalizations are among the elderly who have a much higher rate of vaccination. https://twitter.com/kennyshirley/status/1417177778013843456 Which is all to say "xx% of hospitalizations double jabbed" isn't necessarily concerning even if it's actually 60 instead of 40.
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Jul 20, 2021 23:49
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https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1417301374245687296
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Jul 20, 2021 23:49
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ShadowHawk posted:The subpopulation breakdown tweet post was literally right above yours, you are committing the base rate fallacy all over again. and it's not even 40% for double jabs, it's 40% for single + double jabs since the 60% is no jab at all got my second pfizer today, maybe a little sore arm and a bit more sleepy, but no fever or anything yet
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Jul 20, 2021 23:56
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I guess someone finally realized that their viewing/voting demographic is most at risk of dying of COVID.
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Jul 21, 2021 00:51
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| # ? Jun 7, 2024 03:50 |
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NotJustANumber99 posted:It's 'arse' actually. Sex arse 
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Jul 21, 2021 00:51
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