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The likely voter screen on that poll isn't great (they literally just ask the respondent if they're likely to vote), so I think what it's really capturing is the massive enthusiasm gap. The state is only ~25% or so Republican but the likely voter sample is 36% Republican, so we have Republicans falling over themselves to let people know that they're gonna vote the bastard out while Democrats are shrugging and saying they might vote, maybe. That sort of gap in excitement definitely has some shades of 2016.
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Aug 5, 2021 06:11
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lmao that both of the high profile governors vying to be the face of the #Resistance last year during COVID could very well see their political careers crash and burn within the next month. Albeit for completely different reasons.
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Aug 5, 2021 06:12
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I’m visiting LA for a month and seeing family that are a part of one of the lovely churches. They are getting practically erect talking about how they’re going to recall Newsom. And they’re very excited about the leading candidate, because he’s promising to install a ton of pro life legislation and return California to the eyes of God. It’s the same candidate who said the ideal minimum wage would be zero dollars.
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Aug 5, 2021 21:09
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i would personally try very hard not to see those family members
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Aug 5, 2021 21:47
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Covid Pandemic is like the Civil War all over again the way its tearing families apart. This is, of course, because one side is way dumber than the other.
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Aug 5, 2021 21:52
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I would personally try very hard not to leave my home
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Aug 5, 2021 21:55
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Cup Runneth Over posted:I would personally try very hard not to leave my home i mean yeah, but that's also something that'd be true if there wasn't a pandemic
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Aug 5, 2021 21:57
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Iirc the consensus of polling scientists after the last election was that state level polls just weren't reliable any more. So Newsom will lose by a landslide, and Reagan will rise from the grave and win.
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Aug 5, 2021 21:58
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There is definitely a massive enthusiasm gap between the yes and no crowds. I'm sure there are people out there who think Newsom's done an incredible job and actually like him as governor, but I've yet to meet one IRL. At best I can find people who think Newsom sucks but also that the recall is bullshit.
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Aug 5, 2021 22:13
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mikeycp posted:i would personally try very hard not to see those family members I'm also about to visit family in Pennsylvania/New York that are all not vaccinated, is that a dumb idea Y/N? That would be ironic if vaccinated people wind up becoming super-spreaders to the non-vaccinated
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Aug 5, 2021 22:24
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Sydin posted:There is definitely a massive enthusiasm gap between the yes and no crowds. I'm sure there are people out there who think Newsom's done an incredible job and actually like him as governor, but I've yet to meet one IRL. At best I can find people who think Newsom sucks but also that the recall is bullshit. At least Newsom and the Dems seem to have realized this which is why their messaging on the recall is that a vote for Newsom is a vote against Trump personally, but people don't seem to be buying it
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Aug 5, 2021 22:25
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Shear Modulus posted:At least Newsom and the Dems seem to have realized this which is why their messaging on the recall is that a vote for Newsom is a vote against Trump personally, but people don't seem to be buying it I do wonder if at least on some level, Newsom was hoping Trump would win in 2020. Not because he supports any of his policies, but because he's a high profile bad guy for Newsom to publicly lash out against and oppose policy-wise. Without Trump to elevate him as a high profile Governor fighting the good COVID fight because the Federal government won't, he's just the rear end in a top hat who made you stay home and caused your favorite restaurant to close while he went out for fancy dinners at the French Laundry and hung out in his wine cave.
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Aug 5, 2021 22:39
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The Hispanic crosstabs in that SurveyUSA poll are weird: 33 percent feel certain they're going to vote for recall, and 47 percent answered Yes to Recall while 41 percent answered No to Keep. Is this another Trump-vote thing (increasing among Hispanics from 2016-2020) or something else?
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Aug 5, 2021 22:43
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Willa Rogers posted:The Hispanic crosstabs in that SurveyUSA poll are weird: 33 percent feel certain they're going to vote for recall, and 47 percent answered Yes to Recall while 41 percent answered No to Keep. Democratic Hispanic outreach is absolute garbage. Seriously. I think every single Spanish language news source I've ever tuned into has been super-chud central, with few exceptions. Between that and the rest of the information sources being Facebook and Spanish language evangelical insanity...i don't know. It cracks me up too because for decades now democrats have been ringing the "demographics is destiny" bell without putting in the legwork and they're going to absolutely get tossed over it. E: The day that Republicans figure out their messaging about how to include Hispanics in their definition of white is the day that the 60/40 democratic advantage there flips. El Mero Mero fucked around with this message at 22:57 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 22:53
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My roommate's Hispanic partner got a bunch of angry/concerned calls from her extended family when they found out she was attending George Floyd/BLM protests. Apparently all the local Spanish-speaking news organizations were blasting 24/7 that they were "riots" that were destroying property and murdering poor innocent police officers in cold blood.El Mero Mero posted:E: The day that Republicans figure out their messaging about how to include Hispanics in their definition of white is the day that the 60/40 democratic advantage there flips. For sure, especially among the 35+ demo Hispanics skew pretty conservative. The GOP has a huge untapped voter bloc out there that is ripe for the taking if they could get over their racism. Sydin fucked around with this message at 23:19 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 23:09
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Dems consider Hispanics' votes as owed to them because the Republicans are worse, just like they consider Black peoples' votes as rightfully owed to them. They don't think they need to do any campaigning to them, and in fact they don't want to because they think it'll scare away the white professionals that make up the core of the Democrats' base. Not to mention that Hispanics are officially in the Dems' doghouse right now beside of how overwhelmingly they broke for Bernie in the 2020 primary. There were several hot takes at the time going "how can Hispanic Americans vote for socialism when they have first hand experience with socialist dictators like Castro and Chavez????" Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 23:16 on Aug 5, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 23:14
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What are you going to do, vote Republican? Wait no stop, lo siento!!!
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Aug 5, 2021 23:27
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Centrist Committee posted:What are you going to do, vote Republican? Wait no stop, lo siento!!! "Can we have our children back now that you won?" "What's no in Spanish? Still 'no,' right?"
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Aug 5, 2021 23:45
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It seems to me that "Hispanic" is also a nebulous term including people from various origins and backgrounds from literally all of Latin America. It includes people of Mexican ancestry that have been here since before the US took over, poor undocumented workers from various countries that may not even speak Spanish but an indigenous language like Mixtec, affluent gusanos that fled from socialist-leaning countries like Bolivia or Venezuela or Cuba, H-1B knowledge workers from Mexico or Chile, a whole gamut of different types of people with different interests that may be competing. I think part of the problem when it comes to messaging is that our current political parties treat "Hispanic" like this one united thing and not a panorama of demographics. E: I'm thinking of when I was talking to my mom and she thought Mexican was a race. America Inc. fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 5, 2021 23:57
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no hay camino posted:It seems to me that "Hispanic" is also a nebulous term including people from various origins and backgrounds from literally all of Latin America. It includes people of Mexican ancestry that have been here since before the US took over, poor undocumented workers from various countries that may not even speak Spanish but an indigenous language like Mixtec, affluent gusanos that fled from socialist-leaning countries like Bolivia or Venezuela or Cuba, H-1B knowledge workers from Mexico or Chile, a whole gamut of different types of people with different interests that may be competing. I think part of the problem when it comes to messaging is that our current political parties treat "Hispanic" like this one united thing and not a panorama of demographics. Just remember that in US political discourse, any word like "hispanics" is nothing more than a stand in for the phrase "those people."
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Aug 6, 2021 00:07
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Shear Modulus posted:At least Newsom and the Dems seem to have realized this which is why their messaging on the recall is that a vote for Newsom is a vote against Trump personally, but people don't seem to be buying it https://ktla.com/news/california/newsom-cant-tie-recall-election-to-gop-in-voter-guide-lawsuit-says/amp/ Basically two people from the recall petition campaign sued over the language of the ballot statement/argument in the voter's guide branding the election a "Republican Recall", and sought to strike almost all references to the word "Republican" on the basis that it's "untrue" that it's a "Republican Recall" because its supporters come from multiple political parties and more than half of the 46 registered are not Republican. They wanted a ruling to have this struck before 8/6 when the voter's guide language was to be finalized. https://ktla.com/news/california/gov-newsoms-lawyers-in-court-to-defend-language-tying-recall-election-to-gop/amp/ However, as noted in this update, the court has tentatively ruled that Republican language can stand more or less, and nothing has been proven to be specifically false or objectively untrue. Final ruling is supposed to come out today (It may have already been published). There's probably more specifics but I don't see any court documents attached to the articles and it's local Superior Court documents in Sacramento, and those require money to retrieve afaik 
BeAuMaN fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 00:10
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How in the actual gently caress am I supposed to fill out this recall ballot? Obviously I’m voting “no” to keep Gavin even though he is a fucker, but who should I be voting for downballot? Do we have a DSA pipe dream candidate or is there a liberal option everyone is coalescing around? Or do we have all of our eggs in Newsom’s basket, because that can’t possibly backfire?
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Aug 6, 2021 17:05
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Well, if you believe in Vote Blue No Matter Who, your choice is easy, bc there's literally one Blue Guy running, right?
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Aug 6, 2021 17:09
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meet girls at the store posted:How in the actual gently caress am I supposed to fill out this recall ballot? Obviously I’m voting “no” to keep Gavin even though he is a fucker, but who should I be voting for downballot? Do we have a DSA pipe dream candidate or is there a liberal option everyone is coalescing around? Or do we have all of our eggs in Newsom’s basket, because that can’t possibly backfire? Yes, there is a socialist goon running in the recall
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Aug 6, 2021 17:11
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I think they're asking if there's actually a good person to vote for that isn't throwing your vote away as a completely unsupported protest vote. If the recall happens, not getting a mini-Trump in power is probably the priority. edit: too slow. Socialist goon seems like a good guy, just don't know who the rest of the world is coalescing around. Infinite Karma fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 17:13
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Willa Rogers posted:Well, if you believe in Vote Blue No Matter Who, your choice is easy, bc there's literally one Blue Guy running, right? I’ll vote for whoever has the best chance of beating Larry Elder in the event that Gavin’s recalled, I just have no idea who that person is. Infinite Karma posted:I think they're asking if there's actually a good person to vote for that isn't throwing your vote away as a completely unsupported protest vote. If the recall happens, not getting a mini-Trump in power is probably the priority. This. Like what even is the backup plan? 
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Aug 6, 2021 17:13
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meet girls at the store posted:I’ll vote for whoever has the best chance of beating Larry Elder in the event that Gavin’s recalled, I just have no idea who that person is. the answer to your first question is john cox the answer to your second question is to blame the voters for failing gavin
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Aug 6, 2021 17:15
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Infinite Karma posted:I think they're asking if there's actually a good person to vote for that isn't throwing your vote away as a completely unsupported protest vote. If the recall happens, not getting a mini-Trump in power is probably the priority. Yes, this is my issue as well. I don't like Gavin, but there's..... no one else that's reasonable to vote for.
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Aug 6, 2021 17:16
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Shear Modulus posted:the answer to your first question is john cox gently caress.
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Aug 6, 2021 17:18
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meet girls at the store posted:gently caress. it's the same voting for someone you don't like so the batshit republican doesn't win that we've been doing all our lives, all that's different this time is the letter after the guy's name Shear Modulus fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Aug 6, 2021 |
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Aug 6, 2021 17:48
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I’m gonna vote yes to recall and leave the rest blank.
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Aug 6, 2021 17:56
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Centrist Committee posted:I’m gonna vote yes to recall and leave the rest blank. 
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Aug 6, 2021 18:23
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The top polling Democrat is a guy whose job description is "youtuber landlord." Up to you if that's better or worse than Elder.
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Aug 6, 2021 18:25
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Oh cool, it's the time of year where the sky is smokey and orange all day.Canasta_Nasty posted:Ask me anything about being a socialist on the ballot Gonna vote for the socialist goon. And to recall.
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Aug 6, 2021 18:31
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jetz0r posted:Oh cool, it's the time of year where the sky is smokey and orange all day. Where you living with the smoke sky, goon?
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Aug 6, 2021 20:02
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how bad can the socialist goon be?
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Aug 6, 2021 20:05
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Wicked Them Beats posted:The top polling Democrat is a guy whose job description is "youtuber landlord." Up to you if that's better or worse than Elder. He’s one of those “both siders” types who literally has a shoutout to Ben Shapiro in his “why elect me” video so like, I’m honestly kinda genuinely unsure who’s worse. Then again I know zero about Elder except that he’s on talk radio, which does give me a fairly clear picture I suppose.
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Aug 6, 2021 20:29
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Cool; I didn't know there was a socialist goon to vote for!
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Aug 6, 2021 20:33
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Kenning posted:Where you living with the smoke sky, goon? Central valley, Sacramento. Hazy overcast, with a touch of that smokey orange to remind you that it's not clouds.
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Aug 6, 2021 20:53
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I'm going to vote to recall and vote for the first name on the ballot, hopefully that works out.
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Aug 6, 2021 20:53
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