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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? mlmp08 posted:No. In a thread that’s already less about the Middle East than it is about a majority American or at least European audience aggregating up conflict porn for one another, it’s still pretty distasteful. Saladman posted:While everything War Crime Gigolo posts is bloodlusty and gross, I'd like to highlight that the current thread is having a betting pool for when Kabul falls to a political organization made up of fanatics who will likely commit large-scale massacres and who will all but certainly control Afghanistan for at least the next 20-30 years. Count me in. Edit: Mokotow posted:You guys should read up on what went on in Berlin days before the Soviets invaded. There are different ways of coping with lovely news and humor is one of them. Also, acting high and mighty is annoying as poo poo. Yeah, if this were a thread of Afghans using gallows humor to while away the time before their life is upended, sure. It isn't, though. Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 14:25
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Did you guys weep for South Vietnam too?
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Aug 13, 2021 14:27
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Yes of course Sign me up for April 8. If they can hold on until late fall, taliban might slow down until the usual spring offensive.
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Aug 13, 2021 14:31
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Party In My Diapee posted:Did you guys weep for South Vietnam too? There's a good chance nobody posting here was alive, or at least aware of geopolitical events, back when South Vietnam fell. I think the betting thing is a little tasteless, but nobody's actually putting money on it or lustily cheering for death as part of it, it's just people making estimates together. With as many 'it was obvious that this was going to happen' posts as every political thread sees after something big happens, I think it's nice to have people on the record with their predictions for once. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:39 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 14:32
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TheRat posted:Am I the only one who thinks a jovial bet on when a city falls is a touch distasteful? You might even say it’s Something Awful
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Aug 13, 2021 14:34
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I’m not going to bet because my SO still has a sister in Kabul her family is trying to get out, but the idiotic scolding is stupid. No one cares about how much solemn reverence you have reading the news you dweebs.
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Aug 13, 2021 14:50
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American Afghanistan Veterans crying that they fought for nothing and lost:- https://twitter.com/hollybdc/status/1426178697065807874?s=20
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Aug 13, 2021 14:51
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Party In My Diapee posted:Did you guys weep for South Vietnam too? Yeah that's it, you nailed it. I'm all torn up and sad about the fall of the Afghan govt and the corrupt lovely people who have run it. Its for them who I weep, the true innocents. Obviously not. It's the regular people who are going to be punished by the Taliban for the high crimes of acts such as educating girls or, I dunno, wanting to engage in the modern world for whom I feel. gently caress off with this poo poo.
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Aug 13, 2021 15:05
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icantfindaname posted:I’d say it says more about the shocking weakness of the Afghan government than the strenght of the Taliban. I may be wrong but it doesn’t sound like the Taliban are all that well organized or commanded, when they are taking these cities my sense is it’s just a bunch of guys in technicals with AKs, not a complex combined arms operation. Like ISIS in Mosul, they just waltz in and the garrison dissolves. This is not Vietnam where both sides had heavy armor, air power etc. If the national government were even at the level of South Vietnam they probably could have kept it together I feel everyone keeps systematically underestimating the Taliban. Yes their spearhead is a bunch of 20-30 year olds on flimsy vehicles with AK:s, but that's only because they're currently facing no real opposition. Behind the masses of armed young men you have some of the most battle-experienced soldiers in the entire region who have fought in several civil wars in this very territory. So it is ISIS in Mosul, but it's also a bit more. The very upper echelon of the Taliban are still predominantly the same people who fled to Pakistan when the US invaded in 2001. We know they've built a successful guerilla economy based on drugs, tolls and taxes. Their systematic use of psy-ops and suicide bombers shows that they're very aware of how to get past the limitations of their force projection capabilities. They've fought technologically superior enemies in these territories for the better part of three decades and above all, unlike the other dominant actors in the region, their soldiers are willing to die for the cause.
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Aug 13, 2021 15:22
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Al-Saqr posted:American Afghanistan Veterans crying that they fought for nothing and lost:- I don't understand this. Did they not get years of paychecks and education out of it?
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Aug 13, 2021 16:36
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I'm already regretting saying 6th September for my bet. gently caress me, things are moving fast.
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Aug 13, 2021 16:59
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7of7 posted:I don't understand this. Did they not get years of paychecks and education out of it? The friend who got blown up did not get education or a pension, no, he got dead.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:20
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7of7 posted:I don't understand this. Did they not get years of paychecks and education out of it? I'm not sure if you're being pedantic or if you're not a native English speaker, but "we put in all our effort for nothing" is a commonly-used turn of phrase meaning that "our objective was failed miserably" and not that they worked for free. Actually I don't even think you'd ever say "they fought for nothing" if you were referring to volunteer, unsalaried fighters in a war. Maybe you could but it sounds a bit weird.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:28
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Saladman posted:I'm not sure if you're being pedantic or if you're not a native English speaker, but "we put in all our effort for nothing" is a commonly-used turn of phrase meaning that "our objective was failed miserably" and not that they worked for free. They got their objective though, which was to get a paycheck for several years, possibly a career, healthcare, and education. It's unfortunate that joining the military and facing a very slight risk of death is one of the best ways to get those things in the US but that doesn't make them any less the objective of joining the military.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:36
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7of7 posted:They got their objective though, which was to get a paycheck for several years, possibly a career, healthcare, and education. ... are you doing a bit? Yeah people join the military in a big way for the bennies, but also people in the military, and people in general like and need to feel like they are working for something bigger than a paycheck. In the US military this is especially true. When your friends and coworkers are literally dying on the job you are going to need to believe that it is for a good reason. You seriously can't grasp this?
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Aug 13, 2021 17:44
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I'm not sure why the US would expect the ANA to be anything but a jobs and benefits program for the vast majority of enlisted. That's what the US military is as well... plus it's not even clear how many of the enlisted soldiers actually exist and aren't cut-outs for commanders to siphon money from US. It certainly seems like nobody is quite willing to die at this point facing the Taliban, they're simply walking, driving, cruising into most of these cities now. The real panic is about to start as tens of thousands of foreigners, elite Afghans, and anyone with elite aspirations tries to get out of Kabul. The rate of advance is such that Kabul's fall could happen a lot sooner than anyone expects (although I expect quite a bit more fighting if only to keep channels open for foreigners to get out). Kabul International has to be the most important asset at this point for the US and it's not clear if those Turkish troops/PMCs are going to go down to ensure Emirates keeps flying out of Kabul.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:46
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Western countries have actual troops on the ground to protect the airport for now, so the Taliban would be insane to attack before they finish evacuating. Like if they actually want to start getting bombed to poo poo and maybe provoke a new round of ground combat, that would be the way to do it. All the Taliban has to do is secure the rest of the country and wait and they win.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:50
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7of7 posted:They got their objective though, which was to get a paycheck for several years, possibly a career, healthcare, and education. If I paid you some money would you be cool with me killing you?
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Aug 13, 2021 17:53
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Yeah we'll get our people out. The Taliban just need to wait until the evac is complete and they win. No incentive to engage in battle with international troops at all. The tens of thousands of Afghans who are going to suffer brutal reprisals for the crime of wanting to build a modern state and not adhere to loving 15th century fundamentalist Islam however...man, gently caress.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:53
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I really hope the reprisals won't be as bad as it feels like they might be. Like I think there are categories of people who are hosed for sure, I just hope it doesn't extend to like 'we have images reported on international media of you shaving your beard and dancing gleefully after the invasion 20 years ago' pettiness against normal civilians. They aren't ISIS, so I don't think they'll just lop the head off everyone who irritates them, but I still think it's going to be pretty ugly.
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Aug 13, 2021 17:58
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How are u posted:... are you doing a bit? Yeah people join the military in a big way for the bennies, but also people in the military, and people in general like and need to feel like they are working for something bigger than a paycheck. In the US military this is especially true. When your friends and coworkers are literally dying on the job you are going to need to believe that it is for a good reason. All I'm saying is that the media shouldn't blow out of proportion this whole "What did they die for??" narrative. That made sense for Vietnam where people were forced to fight there and really did die for nothing but the people working in Afghanistan were volunteer soldiers who signed up for a job and were largely well compensated for that job regardless of it ultimately being futile.
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Aug 13, 2021 18:02
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7of7 posted:All I'm saying is that the media shouldn't blow out of proportion this whole "What did they die for??" narrative. I think that this is an extremely callous viewpoint that completely ignores the basic humanity of everybody involved. If you truly can't fathom why vets and soldiers might feel differently, well, good luck with that.
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Aug 13, 2021 18:04
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Drop it.
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Aug 13, 2021 18:13
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What's going to happen to the Afgan ambassadors in other countries right now when their government collapses?
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Aug 13, 2021 18:17
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Thom12255 posted:What's going to happen to the Afgan ambassadors in other countries right now when their government collapses? Normal protocol would be to recall them, to be replaced with someone the new government prefers. The current ambassadors can either go home or seek asylum elsewhere if they would rather not.
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Aug 13, 2021 18:20
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Very few countries recognized the Taliban before the war, so I imagine a lot of embassies will be shut down (and/or have embarrassing government-in-exile representation). Of course that's assuming the Taliban outright take over. There are still people saying they think the Taliban will accept an interim government situation (maybe led or at least anchored by Karzai?) to smooth things over so they aren't immediately international pariahs again. Being the true power in the country kind of like Hezbollah in Lebanon but even moreso might make sense at least as a temporary measure while the world gets used to the new status quo. The rate at which they've been succeeding might make it hard to pull back even if the Taliban leadership wants to though. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 18:31
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On the subject of evacuations, any new developments wrt whats going to happen to ANA/US informants and assets? Last I checked the administration was trying to offload them to Turkey who went "we have 4 million refugees, we didnt start this war, gently caress you, no".
Neurolimal fucked around with this message at 19:05 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 18:59
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Kabul falls basically whenever the taliban factions come together to decide when they want it to fall. Before that can happen they need a bit of time to build resources up in the region and they likely have some interest in giving american and europeans some time unmolested to pull their people and materiel out; as in why would you potentially get in the way of your enemy finally packing up and leaving after 20 years? Easier to just give them a week to pull out and to use the time for your own planning and build up. There might be some interest in pushing things faster, but especially after the US deployed more people to protect the withdrawal, there's a lot less reason to think actually attacking fleeing people is going to speed up the foreign powers efforts to gtfo. Hell there's probably room for some good deals in this for the taliban where they can bargain for reduced american opposition to their efforts for international recognition if they agree not to attack the withdrawal. Or some amount of no strings attached aid or any number of other things. Both sides have things the other wants. btw embassy bat signaling that they are in danger and that the security situation has totally evaporated is how you get 3000 troops there overnight. Like if you remember with the benghazi attack how there was the precursor stage where the consulate reported that the security situation was rapidly deteriorating and they needed substantially more protection? That's the exact stage the embassy is at. It's good from a security standpoint that they got 3000 people, but that's also a deployment that suggests the US has zero confidence that ana/anp will be protecting them effectively at this very moment Neurolimal posted:On the subject of evacuations, any new developments wrt whats going to happen to ANA/US informants and assets? Last I checked the administration was trying to offload them to Turkey who went "we have 4 million refugees, we didnt start this war, gently caress you, no". in the last month the us approved some iirc substantial new quota for people to flee to the US, though who knows if it will be enough, I'm not especially optimistic that it will be. The US is currently evacuating people to qatar for immigration processing, so there is some large scale refugee effort underway, though idk the full details on this. A thousand troops were deployed to qatar for this, so clearly some decently large scale human evacuation is expected Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 19:10
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https://twitter.com/skywatcherintel/status/1426262013748162563?s=19
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Aug 13, 2021 20:34
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I obviously have no way of knowing how true this is, but it's an interesting perspective on the rebirth of the Taliban and their ties to Pakistan. https://twitter.com/Anand_Gopal_/status/1426201870549364741
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Aug 13, 2021 20:41
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So, about the betting. It is unseemly to bet on when a tragedy will happen. But it is happening. I'm ok with guessing when and some aren't, and thats fair. They may feel their empathy can't square with a guess for when the end comes, thats alright, or that guessing games are games and a game is trivial undignified crap in the face of pain, sure. A bad thing to be doing. OK then. That's your judgement. But if you think you can deny my empathy for anyone born in Afghanistan who will flee, who will be murdered, who will be tortured and suffer from the Taliban who controls the country now because I dared guess on a date for it, you can fully go gently caress yourself.
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Aug 13, 2021 20:41
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Lol who knows https://twitter.com/skywatcherintel/status/1426267129196777476
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Aug 13, 2021 20:42
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Sinteres posted:I obviously have no way of knowing how true this is, but it's an interesting perspective on the rebirth of the Taliban and their ties to Pakistan. Gopal is highly regarded. His book and van Linschotens are the two I recommend people read on the subject. Also everyone should get a Taliban Reader just so they can read the preface and abandon all notion that the intelligence agencies know or even really care to know anything about loving anything.
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Aug 13, 2021 21:05
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lol america is now burning all of their embassy documents which is a really good sign for how things are going https://twitter.com/wajskhan/status/1426272880464179200?s=21
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Aug 13, 2021 21:07
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Screama posted:I'll take Sep 4th Chiwie posted:Sep 7th please. I Love Annie May posted:Kabul falls on August 31st. Storkrasch posted:September 25th! Negostrike posted:August 21st then Baudolino posted:August 31. mobby_6kl posted:Sign me up for April 8. If they can hold on until late fall, taliban might slow down until the usual spring offensive. e: standings pre:ThisIsJohnWayne Aug-13 DukeDuke Aug-14 Logic Probed Aug-16 Grip it and rip it Aug-17 Zotix Aug-18 How are u Aug-20 Negostrike Aug-21 Wulf Aug-26 Koaxke Aug-27 escapegoat Aug-29 I Love Annie May Aug-31 Al-Saqr Sep-1 WoodrowSkillson Sep-2 sullat Sep-3 Screama Sep-4 Loving Africa Chaps Sep-5 Pistol_Pete Sep-6 Chiwie Sep-7 Vasukhani Sep-8 Rosalind Sep-10 HisMajestyBOB Sep-11 Ramrod Hotshot Sep-13 needs conffirmaton Pump it up! Do it! Sep-17 Storkrasch Sep-25 Antlerhill Oct-3 Il Federale Oct-7 Count Roland Oct-19 Cable Guy Nov-9 Dante80 Nov-19 Mokotow Dec-2 mobby_6kl Apr-8 Shageletic choose another Neurolimal choose another Baudolino choose another Count Roland fucked around with this message at 21:17 on Aug 13, 2021 |
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Aug 13, 2021 21:09
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August 22nd
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Aug 13, 2021 21:22
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seems mostly like some wording poo poo? depends what 'imminent' means 1 day? 3 days? 1 week? 1 month? also depends what kabul means: are they talking about kabul in general, americans in kabul, the american embassy in kabul? and there's a difference between 'under siege' and 'fallen.' Taliban will start ramping pressure on kabul soon, the security situation will continue to deteriorate. The embassy security assessment basically tolerates zero risk (which is what drove the recent deployment) vs the big picture analysis of 'will the taliban control kabul in the next week y/n' Further worth noting that the us is actively talking to the taliban and has sought and received assurances now that they won't be attacked while withdrawing. Which is notably separate from 'is there anyone around with the means and motivation to launch an attack?' Like I'm not about to go watch a bunch of american media and pentagon press conferences, but it looks offhand a lot like statements from differing ends of very much not apples-to-apples risk assessments
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Aug 13, 2021 21:26
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koshmar posted:August 22nd I really hope it's August 23rd instead, because atrocities happening on my birthday would really suck
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Aug 13, 2021 21:41
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Herstory Begins Now posted:seems mostly like some wording poo poo? depends what 'imminent' means 1 day? 3 days? 1 week? 1 month? I think now the math rests with how long Ghani and the rest of the leadership stay. Basically when all the rich fucks leave and its just the mid level military commanders left in Kabul they will just drop their poo poo and walk away. Its a matter of what happens first, the Taliban lays siege to Kabul or the elites leave.
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Aug 13, 2021 21:55
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Al-Saqr posted:lol america is now burning all of their embassy documents which is a really good sign for how things are going 
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