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Pump it up! Do it!
Oct 3, 2012

AHH F/UGH posted:

Yeah but I have a hard time thinking things like human rights will get better without the US and not way, way worse

Probably, however, there will probably be less rape of small boys which the US has supported among its allies https://web.archive.org/web/2021081...se-of-boys.html.

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Discospawn
Mar 3, 2007

freeasinbeer posted:

The answer is that it varies.

Special forces and milita forces that were aligned to someone the Taliban really hated? Mass executions, mostly.

Leadership; they just let all the folks from Herat flee to Kabul, but there is some wild reports that is because the local Afghan forces leadership handed the local warlord over to the Taliban after he refused to let them evacuate earlier so they could all surrender. Other governors seem to be unharmed but in captivity.

Rank and file ANA/police? Taliban seem to be turning them lose or even letting them flee as a unit if they give up.

Random mid level guys, who may or may not be famous? Seen a fair few Executions, doesn’t pay to be middle management.
Yeah, this lines up with what I was thinking.

I guess I find it weird because of how quick and (relatively) bloodless the whole change of government is after so many resources were spent over the past 20 years. It doesn't feel like a civil war or a revolution. Maybe it's a coup d'état, but the end of a failed coup attempt that the US started 20 years ago?

Edit:

mobby_6kl posted:

There was just never any government to overthrow
Yeah, maybe I'm having the same trouble as other Western nations of trying to grasp such a rural/tribal region with drastically different cultures/beliefs/affluence/etc.

Discospawn fucked around with this message at 10:50 on Aug 14, 2021

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
There was just never any government to overthrow

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Discospawn posted:

Yeah, this lines up with what I was thinking.

I guess I find it weird because of how quick and (relatively) bloodless the whole change of government is

There has been a lot of blood. The Afghan army and police were brutalized for the last couple years, which is how we got here so rapidly. Targeted killings have been occurring leading up to this. All that blood set conditions for the Afghan government forces to turn tide and cede territory, or desert, or switch sides.

Percentage-wise, the Afghan government took just ghastly casualties leading up to this.

freeasinbeer
Mar 26, 2015

by Fluffdaddy

mobby_6kl posted:

There was just never any government to overthrow

Eh; there was a huge spread out government that was easy to isolate; and that steamrolled. Outposts had been besieged for months prior. The military asked to consolidate last year, in a plan to leave 1/4th of the countries districts and were told they “weren’t giving up one inch”.

Also this thread on ghani is fun:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1425199119929282560?s=21

Zedhe Khoja
Nov 10, 2017

sürgünden selamlar
yıkıcılar ulusuna

Al-Saqr posted:

Yeah looks like Ghanis gonna go down with the ship

I doubt it. But he doesn't want to look so pathetic that he's too embarrassing to have at the good parties in the future. As funny as the image of him leaving with a sack with a dollar sign on it is, his loot largely came through stakes in companies based in the Gulf so he can stay right up until the last flight out.

The black comedy option is you're right and that despite being the architect of the current Afghan kleptocracy he's some kind of megalomaniacal true believer. He's literal feudal nobility and that kind of mixture isn't that unusual in those types.

Zedhe Khoja fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Aug 14, 2021

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
https://twitter.com/natsecjeff/status/1426496493326843911?s=21

https://twitter.com/natsecjeff/status/1426496476398641152?s=21

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

freeasinbeer posted:

Eh; there was a huge spread out government that was easy to isolate; and that steamrolled. Outposts had been besieged for months prior. The military asked to consolidate last year, in a plan to leave 1/4th of the countries districts and were told they “weren’t giving up one inch”.

Also this thread on ghani is fun:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1425199119929282560?s=21

I meant that more about the central government as the institution rather than the military, though that probably not very clear from that post. If there isn't much of a government established, it would be easier to take over.

Not consolidating the military was very dumb of course.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

freeasinbeer posted:

But; there was an ANA convoy recently that fled over 100km through Taliban controlled territory without much trouble, so Taliban “control” might be less concrete then portrayed by maps.

That said I also saw 3 similar convoys from else where end in mass surrenders since just this morning.

Part of why these cities are falling without a fight is that the Taliban offer the ANA a safe retreat in exchange for the town. I don't know about the instance you mentioned, but maybe that convoy was granted safe passage.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

I'm not sure it's true to say the Afghan government never existed, but if it did, Ghani absolutely ran it into the ground. His unbelievably poor decision making now is bringing me over to the idea that he's just some academic in way over his head who alienated everyone he'd need to put up even a token resistance, but Karzai seems like he was the real deal to some extent. His personal history is seriously fascinating. Like he's ethnically Pashtun, used to be friendly with the Taliban, then the Taliban murked his dad so he turned against them (also because he resented Pakistan's control over them), and the US liked the guy enough to install him instead of anyone from the Northern Alliance. Out of office he turned against the US and became a bit more Taliban friendly again (despite their repeated assassination attempts against him while president), calling Ghani a traitor for allowing the US free rein to bomb the poo poo out of everywhere.

Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 13:08 on Aug 14, 2021

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

AHH F/UGH posted:

I mean in the sense that like, yeah it's in the news but it doesn't really seem to be getting as much traction as it would (for obvious reasons) but also just because I think that people are so loving done with Afghanistan being anything at all to them that it wouldn't get as much play as like, 10 years ago or something regardless.

There isn't all that much newsworthiness in these events, it's just rural towns that most foreigners haven't heard of and have no feelings about, and I think even more importantly there are no international journalists embedded in Afghan army or Taleban units. Now it's just very dry reporting about Taleban advances and very few cell phone photos. I guess Taleban is also different from ISIS who used internet extensively for their propaganda purposes and that way we got lots of combat videos from Syria and Iraq, but that makes sense because ISIS recruited internationally.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Nenonen posted:

There isn't all that much newsworthiness in these events, it's just rural towns that most foreigners haven't heard of

I promise a ton of foreigners have heard of Kandahar since it was mentioned a ton during the invasion. Beyond that, each individual city that's taken may not be newsworthy, but the Taliban basically conquering the country in a matter of weeks is massively newsworthy.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Sinteres posted:

I promise a ton of foreigners have heard of Kandahar since it was mentioned a ton during the invasion. Beyond that, each individual city that's taken may not be newsworthy, but the Taliban basically conquering the country in a matter of weeks is massively newsworthy.

It's front page news, but there's still not much human interest in reporting names of fallen cities.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
Also: The deal with the Taliban was that the US would leave by May. So they’ve been ready for a while and occasionally reminding the US of its impatience.

And if the deal was “lol, the US will never leave,” I do not think the Taliban answer would have been to shrug and stay put, defeated.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
Taliban seem to be at the gates of Mazar E Sharif which is Dostums main stronghold

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426526038960508930?s=20

Also LOL poor CIA:-

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426535107406569481?s=20

Lost Time
Sep 28, 2012

All necessities, provided. All anxieties, tranquilized. All boredom, amused.

Al-Saqr posted:

drat if only america gave a poo poo about human rights as much as you do they could’ve done a lot better in the last 20 years

Yeah, we also probably shouldn't have propagandized jihad material to Afghan children throughout the 80s to fight the soviets either.

https://twitter.com/Rzhevsky/status/1426264821297684483
From article:

quote:

In the twilight of the Cold War, the United States spent millions of dollars to supply Afghan schoolchildren with textbooks filled with violent images and militant Islamic teachings, part of covert attempts to spur resistance to the Soviet occupation.

The primers, which were filled with talk of jihad and featured drawings of guns, bullets, soldiers and mines, have served since then as the Afghan school system's core curriculum. Even the Taliban used the American-produced books, though the radical movement scratched out human faces in keeping with its strict fundamentalist code.


As Afghan schools reopen today, the United States is back in the business of providing schoolbooks. But now it is wrestling with the unintended consequences of its successful strategy of stirring Islamic fervor to fight communism. What seemed like a good idea in the context of the Cold War is being criticized by humanitarian workers as a crude tool that steeped a generation in violence.

Last month, a U.S. foreign aid official said, workers launched a "scrubbing" operation in neighboring Pakistan to purge from the books all references to rifles and killing. Many of the 4 million texts being trucked into Afghanistan, and millions more on the way, still feature Koranic verses and teach Muslim tenets.

The White House defends the religious content, saying that Islamic principles permeate Afghan culture and that the books "are fully in compliance with U.S. law and policy." Legal experts, however, question whether the books violate a constitutional ban on using tax dollars to promote religion.

Organizations accepting funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development must certify that tax dollars will not be used to advance religion. The certification states that AID "will finance only programs that have a secular purpose. . . . AID-financed activities cannot result in religious indoctrination of the ultimate beneficiaries."

Probably a big mistake, and it's already been memory holed. Kinda like helping to spawn the Taliban into existence in the first place.




Darth Walrus posted:

As mentioned, human rights cover many different topics. The Taliban are much less likely to rape little boys (bacha bazi was and is a powerful recruitment tool), bomb your entire village into dust, or send the psychotic death squads of the Zero Units through your region (when the news refers to 'Afghan special forces' as the core of the national army, that's who they're talking about). The occupation government ruled more through a monopoly on violence than any serious attempt to establish goodwill and sustainable livelihoods, which is why they're evaporating so fast. The Taliban may be rear end in a top hat fundamentalists, but they could at least make a more credible promise of peace, security, and stable governance.

The Taliban not being a puppet regime of foreign powers goes a long long way, and a lot of people need to understand that. Or else these about faces will just keep on coming.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
The mujahedeen and the taliban were not the same thing, though there is certainly overlap. Similarly, the taliban pretty much only still exist today because they've been propped up and given shelter by foreign powers, (pakistan's ISI probably above all others).

But yeah even that is still a hundred times less outrageous than having american-trained death squads running around your country for literally decades.

Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Aug 14, 2021

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426563100245954563?s=20

Grip it and rip it
Apr 28, 2020
Lol at everyone flexing their knowledge of the ME as the ANA folds up. Lots to think about...

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
The Taliban can now operate Military Choppers:-

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426576216912535560?s=20

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Well. We funded the Taliban in the 1980s and now they are instituting a rightwing Islamic fundamentalist regime backed by American equipment and vehicles.

We did it folks. Mission accomplished.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
There's unconfirmed news coming in that Mazar-I-sharif has been conquered by the taliban with dostum and atta noor withdrawing out of afghanistan... waiting for more reliable sources before linking, if so, the Taliban has effectively conquered everything of value in afghanistan besides Kabul.

UPDATE:-

Confirmed, Mazar-I-Sharif has fallen to the Taliban

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426589676966711296?s=20


https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426591191622107144?s=20

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 18:09 on Aug 14, 2021

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Al-Saqr posted:

There's unconfirmed news coming in that Mazar-I-sharif has been conquered by the taliban with dostum and atta noor withdrawing out of afghanistan... waiting for more reliable sources before linking, if so, the Taliban has effectively conquered everything of value in afghanistan besides Kabul.

UPDATE:-

Confirmed, Mazar-I-Sharif has fallen to the Taliban

https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426589676966711296?s=20


https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1426591191622107144?s=20

Those tweets don't provide much evidence; I'll hold out on the "confirmed" bit for now. Not that the city falling would surprise anyone at this point.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Count Roland posted:

Those tweets don't provide much evidence; I'll hold out on the "confirmed" bit for now. Not that the city falling would surprise anyone at this point.

https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1426603862652293120?s=20

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



The Fall of Saigon 2: But This Time, The Entire Country In A Week

Discospawn
Mar 3, 2007

Are we going to see the last American troops leave Afghanistan being escorted by Taliban troops/officials? Not 'escorted' as in the jailer/captive sense, but just like 'host country sees off foreign guests after visit'.

I don't think US troops have any obligation to act in any way other than to defend themselves and US citizens, and the Taliban have so much momentum and seem disciplined enough that they could take Kabul without threatening non-Afghan interests.

Seeing that video of the 'Taliban-piloted helicopter' makes me wonder if the Taliban maintained their own shadow-Air-Force, or if it's really just a matter of a large portion of the Afghan Air Force switching allegiance.

Edit:
Wow, fair enough.

Discospawn fucked around with this message at 19:43 on Aug 14, 2021

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
America asks taliban to let them evacuate:-

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1426612180271702019?s=20

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes


Last key outpost of Govt control in the north of Afg, the strategically and commercially important city of Mazar e Sharif has fallen to the Taliban according to local officials. one says both Dostum and Noor who were leading resistance have fled to the border with Uzbekistan

Whoever said dostum would put up his hands and go back to uzbekistan was right

Discospawn
Mar 3, 2007

On Wikipedia, articles on major battles/conflicts/skirmishes always have a summary panel that lists who the belligerents were, the force sizes, and the number of casualties.

It feels like there's going to be a 'Battle of Kabul (2021)' article that lists the ANA & Taliban as the belligerents but they'll have equivalent army sizes and 0 casualties for both sides because it's really just the former transitioning allegiance to the latter.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

Grip it and rip it posted:

Lol at everyone flexing their knowledge of the ME as the ANA folds up. Lots to think about...

https://twitter.com/wyatt_privilege/status/1426583738796941312

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012
https://twitter.com/kblafghanistan/status/1426615861280972803?s=21

Yeah, this is basically game over.

Loving Africa Chaps
Dec 3, 2007


We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

https://twitter.com/MSharif1990/status/1426596988775174144?s=19

This is over.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
biden just put out a statement that he is sending 5,000 troops to Kabul to evacuate American, allied embassies and staff and evacuate some of the afghans who worked with America.

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1426632630683021312?s=21

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Are they even going to make it there fast enough? Like I don't think Kabul will hold out past tomorrow.

Loving Africa Chaps
Dec 3, 2007


We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

It's in the Taliban's interests to let the US evacuate, Kabul is going to fall and they'll still get videos inside the embassy but they can avoid airstrikes if they wait a few days.

Discospawn
Mar 3, 2007

I don't think the US mission involves whether Kabul is run by the Taliban or not. I think the US troops are just going to set up perimeter around the airbase, the embassy, and whatever paths they need to maintain the evacuation. I believe the US will finish it's withdrawal while the Taliban flag flies over Kabul.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are they even going to make it there fast enough? Like I don't think Kabul will hold out past tomorrow.

It seems like no real skin off the Taliban's noses if they sit back and politely let the US evacuate. They can take Kabul whenever they want, and everyone knows it.

el3m
Jun 18, 2005
Grimey Drawer
Dec 6th :finland:, I still want to believe some hard-line sf will hold out for a quarter

It seems that we're at least doing something and granting asylum for 150+ guys and their families helping Finns during our ISAF mission

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
can someone please mail this to the presidential palace?

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mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Vasukhani posted:

can someone please mail this to the presidential palace?


You mean to the Whitehouse?

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