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QuoProQuid posted:basically all coming apart at the seems. grim prospects for evacuations of Afghan civilians likely to face retaliation for their work with the US and other forces Obviously they could be lying, but we have to hope at this point that the Taliban's promise of broad amnesty is going to be upheld. I assume there will be groups it won't apply to, but hopefully it'll be mostly people who kind of earned that.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:30
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https://twitter.com/MJalal700/statu...er%3D37lastpost So who won the bet?
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Aug 15, 2021 16:30
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Dante80 posted:So, it seems that it is China's turn in Afghanistan, right? Belt and Road (the belt this time will be used to hit women tho). T_T China is not dumb and they don't give a poo poo about human rights, they will likely (successfully) engage with the new government of Afghanistan diplomatically in a mutually beneficial way, because they have no desire to piss away time, money and lives on an impossible task.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:34
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Zotix posted:So is the evacuation complete for all western nations at this point? If not poo poo might get squirrly at night. Our hasn't even started yet!
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Aug 15, 2021 16:39
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Sinteres posted:Obviously they could be lying, but we have to hope at this point that the Taliban's promise of broad amnesty is going to be upheld. I assume there will be groups it won't apply to, but hopefully it'll be mostly people who kind of earned that. obviously that’s the hope but there’s very few reasons to trust the taliban when they’ve periodically reversed themselves the moment it became expedient for them to do so
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Aug 15, 2021 16:39
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Dante80 posted:So, it seems that it is China's turn in Afghanistan, right? Belt and Road (the belt this time will be used to hit women tho). T_T China seems to be handling Afghanistan at a distance, having held meetings with the Taliban and the (now former) Afghan government and being open to working with whoever they have to work with. China did request the Taliban to avoid ties with the East Turkestan movement because Xinjiang. The prospects of B&R there may not be so enticing anyway. https://warontherocks.com/2021/08/a-reluctant-embrace-chinas-new-relationship-with-the-taliban/ I doubt China will see itself repeating the never-ending mistake.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:47
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Dante80 posted:So, it seems that it is China's turn in Afghanistan, right? Belt and Road (the belt this time will be used to hit women tho). T_T Them or the UK. It sounds like the tories are looking to try to look tough again.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:47
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1426931538571128838
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Aug 15, 2021 16:48
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https://twitter.com/Rimmy_Downunder/status/1426838276703330310 thread
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Aug 15, 2021 16:49
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PT6A posted:China is not dumb and they don't give a poo poo about human rights, they will likely (successfully) engage with the new government of Afghanistan diplomatically in a mutually beneficial way, because they have no desire to piss away time, money and lives on an impossible task. Yeah, that's what I was saying. I see thousands of contractors coming, China wants to properly integrate the country to SCO via CPEC. They are not going to do what the Soviets or Americans did, but simply offer to rebuild the country. That discussion is a little premature tho..
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Aug 15, 2021 16:49
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im admittedly more concerned with the immediate situation than pretending i have any idea what china will do in 5, 10, or 20 years under a completely different and unknowable set of circumstances
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Aug 15, 2021 16:52
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drat, I thought they'd have at least made some kind of stand. I think ARVN outnumbered NVA 4:1 in 1975 and more US Air support. Was it that on paper ANA forces were 350k compared to estimated 70k Taleban? In reality it seems to be completely different situation, not a lot of guys in ANA left
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Aug 15, 2021 16:52
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Well I guess he is hosed now.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:52
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QuoProQuid posted:im admittedly more concerned with the immediate situation than pretending i have any idea what china will do in 5, 10, or 20 years under a completely different and unknowable set of circumstances 10 years ago, actually https://www.reuters.com/article/afghanistan-cnpc/update-1-afghanistan-signs-major-oil-deal-with-chinas-cnpc-idUSL3E7NS40J20111228
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Aug 15, 2021 16:55
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el3m posted:drat, I thought they'd have at least made some kind of stand. Apparently most of the rank and file's paychecks have bounced for months. If a gangster state stops paying its soldiers it's done right away.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:56
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el3m posted:drat, I thought they'd have at least made some kind of stand.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:57
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Dante80 posted:So, it seems that it is China's turn in Afghanistan, right? Belt and Road (the belt this time will be used to hit women tho). T_T Why would you just assume China is dumber than the US? The Soviets were pushed out by a proxy war funded by the US. The US was pushed out due to staggering incompetence, also funded by the US. The US has been the problem for the last forty years, why would China be the same? E: by which I mean China is just going to dump infrastructure money and not do the dumbass American imperialism routine where they try to conjure a nation from nothing and then act surprised when it dissolves away
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Aug 15, 2021 16:58
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el3m posted:drat, I thought they'd have at least made some kind of stand. I mean, my guess is the government was lying out it’s rear end and when your basically throwing the equivalent of peasant levies who don’t want to be there into the meat grinder where at least 70 die a day and most aren’t loyal to the government warlord that rules from their gilded Dubai mansion, why the gently caress should they fight at that point.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:58
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el3m posted:drat, I thought they'd have at least made some kind of stand. What would making a stand have achieved? Why die in a losing war where there is ZERO hope of turning things around when the enemy is promising to let you go home to your family?
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Aug 15, 2021 16:58
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Dapper_Swindler posted:Well I guess he is hosed now. Make sure you read the whole thread. Shine on you crazy diamond, if you ever get out of Afghanistan, honestly I hope they make you a real Lord.
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Aug 15, 2021 16:59
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Nix Panicus posted:Why would you just assume China is dumber than the US? Dude, that was what I'm saying lol..
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Aug 15, 2021 17:00
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Herstory Begins Now posted:10 years ago, actually point taken, though i was referring more to speculation of whether China would ever become militarily involved in afghanistan in some hypothetical, far-off future am curious to what extent those agreements are upheld though
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Aug 15, 2021 17:02
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Al-Saqr posted:https://twitter.com/MJalal700/statu...er%3D37lastpost Looks like this guy: Boat Stuck posted:Aug 15
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Aug 15, 2021 17:05
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Part of it depends on the Taliban's willingness to play nice with China. If the Taliban is willing to deport Uighurs, they'll probably get along just fine. If they instead harbor Uighurs and allow dissidents to live their lives, let alone rebels to train, there's every chance of China losing their minds and doing stupid poo poo.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:05
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QuoProQuid posted:point taken, though i was referring more to speculation of whether China would ever become militarily involved in afghanistan in some hypothetical, far-off future idk they might renegotiate some of them, but the 80% ratio of that deal was fairly standard for the time and not particularly exploitative. I'll be surprised if the taliban isn't proactive about getting resource extractions operations and the like greenlit as soon as possible. They need the money and jobs and industry. Chinese and chinese state-owned companies have a number of other major natural resource deals they've made that are still legally binding, albeit often not actively being utilized for obvious security reasons that presumably will be activated the second things are stable enough to get to work. The Mes aynas copper mine in particular comes to mind here, they signed that deal almost 15 years ago
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Aug 15, 2021 17:13
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Is this 4chan or what? Trying to find the sources. Boat Stuck posted:Aug 15 Congratulations sir
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Aug 15, 2021 17:13
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Inner Light posted:Is this 4chan or what? Trying to find the sources. Yeah. He was also streaming on twitch.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:15
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Pump it up! Do it! posted:It depends, if the Taliban still employ them and let them transition over to other jobs it will probably not be a problem. However, if they do something as monumentally stupid as De-Ba'athification and leave all former ANA soldiers unemployed without the possibility of getting a job it might turn ugly. I'm not sure if Taliban could pay them all, at least to the level of income they received earlier with US backing. Afghan economy is undeveloped and unemployment is very high. Taliban is not exactly well resourced, their fighters rely on civilians 'agreeing' to give them food as they move to new areas as their own logistics system is very basic. Most people work in agriculture and as you might guess it's not efficient, usually people are barely coming by. Afghanistan has incredible mineral deposits and gold made for 43% of their export revenue in 2019, but mining is a very capital intensive field, mining companies are loving vultures, it takes a long time to get a mine going, and what happens to current mine and oil drilling projects in Afghanistan is a huge question mark. It's probably one of the things that China has been discussing with Taliban, because they have made big investments there.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:17
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Boat Stuck posted:Aug 15 Congrats dude you rock
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Aug 15, 2021 17:20
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Has there been any decent reporting or coverage on the Taliban's seemingly amazingly successful domestic and foreign policy? From the scattered reports and discussions so far, it appears the Taliban operated a very slick foreign policy operation that neutralized previously hostile states.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:20
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https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1426918201670176771 lol.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:26
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Issuing a correction on a foreign policy directive of mine concerning the Taliban: you under no circumstances "gotta hand it to them."
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Aug 15, 2021 17:28
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PT6A posted:Issuing a correction on a foreign policy directive of mine concerning the Taliban: you under no circumstances "gotta hand it to them." https://twitter.com/RawStory/status/1426919046658789381 it gets better.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:29
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drat you, Critical Race Theory, is there nothing you won't destroy???
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Aug 15, 2021 17:30
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https://twitter.com/natsecjeff/status/1426937848918335491?s=21
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Aug 15, 2021 17:31
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Nenonen posted:I'm not sure if Taliban could pay them all, at least to the level of income they received earlier with US backing. Has ANA been paid though? I read that one of the main reasons for the total collapse is that the pay for a large number of ANA soldiers has been in arrears for several months. If the Taliban can pay anything or even feed them it might be a significant improvement to the soldiers' previous conditions.
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Aug 15, 2021 17:31
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Nix Panicus posted:Why would you just assume China is dumber than the US? Lol thia dude at his shitposting wheaties today
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Aug 15, 2021 17:32
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Pump it up! Do it! posted:Has ANA been paid though? I read that one of the main reasons for the total collapse is that the pay for a large number of ANA soldiers has been in arrears for several months. If the Taliban can pay anything or even feed them it might be a significant improvement to the soldiers' previous conditions. Hey now, it's hard to pay your soldiers if all that money you're getting instead goes to soldiers on loan from the phantom zone / your own pocket I mean, think of the poor, corrupt Afghan politicians. They can't very well get rich and run off laughing to the airport if ANA-soldiers actually get payed, can't they?
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Aug 15, 2021 17:37
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Nix Panicus posted:Why would you just assume China is dumber than the US? i mean the soviets and their local government were imploding in Afghanistan long before the CIA stuck their dick in the nest. also infastructure doesn't mean dick where most of the idea of the goverment is mostly viewed as a vibe in most of the country. that being said we will see how china handles it. Dapper_Swindler fucked around with this message at 17:41 on Aug 15, 2021 |
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Aug 15, 2021 17:38
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French ambassador bugging out https://twitter.com/david_martinon/status/1426924558049755140
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Aug 15, 2021 17:41
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