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RCarr posted:Anyone have any thoughts on this? Just need a second opinion. I think you answered your own question: It's a pretty lateral trade and will make you feel better about QB
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Aug 16, 2021 19:18
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RCarr posted:Anyone have any thoughts on this? Just need a second opinion. Is this superflex? Your rookie pick costs never make sense to me, that's way too flat a salary scale going from mid 1st to any of those 2nf round pick costs. Devalues the 2nd relative to non salary leagues. I'm not a huge Kyler fan and think his scoring the first half of last season was a mirage, but he'll be a decent QB1 as long as he's healthy. I'd take that over Lawrence for pretty similar salary.
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Aug 16, 2021 19:47
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sourdough posted:Is this superflex? Your rookie pick costs never make sense to me, that's way too flat a salary scale going from mid 1st to any of those 2nf round pick costs. Devalues the 2nd relative to non salary leagues. I'm not a huge Kyler fan and think his scoring the first half of last season was a mirage, but he'll be a decent QB1 as long as he's healthy. I'd take that over Lawrence for pretty similar salary. No it’s not super flex. How would you make the salary situation better? This is a league I created mostly based off of another SA league, with some tweaks, it’s still a work in progress, but it’s been working pretty well so far.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:22
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I'd try to mirror the salary scale to the change in adp for rookies better. Idk, maybe all salaries are pretty flat in your league, but for example pick 5 (Javonte Williams or Etienne maybe) is like a 4th or 5th round start up pick, the 18th rookie is someone like Toney or Amon Ra in like the 10th or 11th round. The salary difference is only like $6-7? Just seems silly. That's pretty close to like Mahomes vs Tua in adp, or DJ Moore vs Russell Gage.
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Aug 16, 2021 20:31
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We have that same league. It takes like 3 years for salaries to even out. It's not a startup, so that analogy doesn't matter. If mahomes hits FA he would go for 30 or 40 bucks. Tua would go for 6ish. The salaries are starting to even out a bunch in our league. Still have the high hitters, the expensive studs, but unproven guys like Etienne and Harris and Pitts simply can't cost the same as a home run like Zeke or Cooks. Edit: guys who aren't home runs will get dropped after a year or two in order to be picked up at a lower price point. Spermy Smurf fucked around with this message at 23:12 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 23:09
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I'm not saying rookies should cost as much as vets, I'm saying that one way of valuing rookies, start up adp, is pretty far out of step with those salary amounts. That difference in salary between Mahomes and Tua is exactly my point: per adp, the difference between an early/mid 1st and a mid 2nd is roughly like Mahomes vs Tua, and your rookie salary is very far away from reflecting that. ADP should bake in the risk of unproven rookies too, so not sure that really matters in the comparison. But that doesn't have to be solved/changed by making early picks cost exorbitant salary, just making the rookie scale steeper. Maybe we disagree on this or I'm underestimating the value of cheap rookies kept in perpetuity, but I think by late 2nd/early 3rd, rookies should probably cost $1, given the low hit rates. Their real cost then is the likely wasted roster spot, not salary. Compared to a non salary league, I suspect your FA pool is much more interesting, as people try to drop guys and get them back on cheaper deals, so that wasted roster spot is not a negligible cost. Maybe something like 1.01 is $25, dropping fairly sharply so 1.12 is like $10. I dunno. I probably like your salary scale well enough for superflex, as adding in 4-5 fairly high value rookies flattens out the value dropoff substantially too.
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Aug 16, 2021 23:25
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The last 1.01 to actually live up to the hype in our league was CMC. Mahomes was 3.01. Josh Allen was 4.03. Quarterbacks in a 1qb league just go in waves, people don't value them and then they are overvalued in cycles. We had 2 or 3 years where the top picks were guys like Guice, Corey davis, n'keal, David montgomery, Rashad penny, Sony michel... You can't have those guys costing 25 and guys like mahomes at $1. That doesn't fix the issue at all. Edit: it's also a 12 team league with 25 slots plus 4 taxi. The waiver wire is pretty bare. If these rookies don't cost something then you have two or three guys hitting the vet auction every year that would go for 90% of the cap. The hit rate on early first round picks is absolutely terrible. The scale can't be too large. Spermy Smurf fucked around with this message at 23:53 on Aug 16, 2021 |
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Aug 16, 2021 23:50
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I'm in a 2QB league with a TE spot and a W/R/T flex spot. How valuable are TEs there? I have the choice of keeping Myles Gaskin in the 8th or Hockenson in the 12th. I think I should keep Hockenson but I can't believe that keeping a TE will pay off.
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Aug 17, 2021 05:51
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The X-man cometh posted:I'm in a 2QB league with a TE spot and a W/R/T flex spot. How valuable are TEs there? Don’t flex a TE, if that’s what you’re asking. Gaskin may not have the workload he had last year but it’s not certain. Hock looks like he’ll be the #1 receiver in an awful offense. Both are going multiple rounds ahead of where you can keep them. You don’t have any other options to keep?
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Aug 17, 2021 06:01
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Im already keeping McLaurin in the 9th and Hurts in the 10th
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Aug 17, 2021 13:28
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The X-man cometh posted:and Hurts in the 10th Eeew, what else are your options?
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Aug 17, 2021 13:35
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The X-man cometh posted:I'm in a 2QB league with a TE spot and a W/R/T flex spot. How valuable are TEs there? Hock is a high end TE and easily worth a 12th round pick. Gaskin is looking more and more like he's going to be in a committee with Malcolm Brown. Go with Hock. I wouldn't go out of my way to find another TE to use as a flex. Stock up on RBs and WRs for that.
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Aug 17, 2021 13:59
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The X-man cometh posted:Im already keeping McLaurin in the 9th edit: Tebow has been released. 
AAAAA! Real Muenster fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Aug 17, 2021 |
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Aug 17, 2021 15:26
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:How the hell are you keeping McLaurin in the 9th?!? League with keepers usually has a set round cost for all undrafted/waiver pick ups, i'm guessing his was 10 and moves up a round each year.
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Aug 17, 2021 15:44
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VietCampo posted:League with keepers usually has a set round cost for all undrafted/waiver pick ups, i'm guessing his was 10 and moves up a round each year. Exactly. That's why Hurts is in the 10th this year. It's a 2 QB league and people jump on QBs early, the last 3 years QB2s started going in the 4th and 5th rounds so Hurts in the 10th is a bargain compared to Gaskin
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Aug 17, 2021 16:10
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I've been offered Darren Waller and a 2022 2nd for my Travis Kelce in a 2QB 0.5 PPR (1 PPR for TEs) Dynasty league. The guy is going for it all this year whereas i'm a playoff contender but a lot would have to break right for me to win. As is I don't think this is enough to trade away Kelce (tbh I though Waller was 2 years younger than he actually is) but i'm curious to see what you esteemed goons think. I'm toying with asking him to throw Nyheem Hines in the deal as my RB room is thin (Travis Etienne, Mike Davis, James White and Melvin Gordon), not a huge upgrade but I like Hines. He also has WRs Sterling Shepard, Corey Davis and Antonio Brown that he might be willing to let go.
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Aug 17, 2021 21:05
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I keep Kelce with either of those offers, Hines adds very little. Waller should still be great this year, but I'd be constantly worried about the Raiders adding an actual good receiver and making Waller the 1B. Like, yeah he dominated the receiving game when his competition was Renfrow, Agholor, and Tyrell Williams, but what happens when Bryan "TO Moss" Edwards breaks out (lol). Or when Carr finally gets replaced. Whereas Kelce has age as essentially the only worry: his offense is going to keep being great, Mahomes is going nowhere, he's been the TE1 even with Hill blowing up, etc.
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Aug 17, 2021 21:18
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sourdough posted:I keep Kelce with either of those offers, Hines adds very little. Waller should still be great this year, but I'd be constantly worried about the Raiders adding an actual good receiver and making Waller the 1B. Like, yeah he dominated the receiving game when his competition was Renfrow, Agholor, and Tyrell Williams, but what happens when Bryan "TO Moss" Edwards breaks out (lol). Or when Carr finally gets replaced. Whereas Kelce has age as essentially the only worry: his offense is going to keep being great, Mahomes is going nowhere, he's been the TE1 even with Hill blowing up, etc. Kelce's age is definitely the main driver behind me even considering the trade. This is only my 2nd year in a dynasty league and i'm struggling a bit with when to pull the cord on older/overworked guys, especially in a year where i'm not seriously going after a championship.
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Aug 17, 2021 21:36
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It's tough with a guy like Kelce because it seems less like slowing down physically will hurt his production much and more like eventually someday he'll start getting injured more because he's older. So it's tough to predict. I don't think I'm selling him anywhere I'm competing, and anywhere I am selling I think I'd wait til in season and try to get younger talent. Feels like you'd be buying Waller at his ceiling and not really extending your window to compete, so why not stick with the surer thing. e: or to put it another way, I'm all for selling Kelce if you're not competing, but then sell him for something that makes sense for a younger/rebuilding team rather than a relatively old TE, helps your picks to be earlier next year, and fits with when you think you will be competitive. sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Aug 17, 2021 |
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Aug 17, 2021 21:41
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I'd agree with your edit. I was way more gung-ho for this trade when I thought Waller was like 26 not almost 29. I think age will hit him hard since he relies so much on his speed and physicality.
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Aug 17, 2021 21:57
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Kelce is 32 in October. Waller may begin to see age related decline, but I don't see how Kelce isn't an even bigger risk of hitting the cliff this year.
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Aug 17, 2021 22:03
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Having done absolutely no research on it, feels like Kelce has passed the point where I assume he'll continue producing into his 30s because he hasn't slowed down yet. Yes that feels suspiciously like using his older age as a positive lol
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Aug 17, 2021 22:08
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I dunno, Kelce doesn't get open based on elite speed or overwhelming athleticism. He does it with super incredible route running and precise movements. He has been getting separation with ease all camp, I think you are reading "32 sometime this season" and imagining a wall that frankly I don't really see coming anytime soon.
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Aug 17, 2021 22:10
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Kelce is one of those rare guys where I don't care about his age. Until I see proof of a decline, I assume he'll be good forever.
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Aug 17, 2021 22:21
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i haven't done fantasy football in at least a decade and this league is nuts: 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te 1 wr/rb 1 wr/te 1 wr/rb/te 2 qb/wr/rb/te scoring's pretty standard for a .25 ppr, but  at these kinds of lineups. is this just the way the game's played now? last league i was in was a single flex for rb/wr/te.
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Aug 17, 2021 22:28
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abelwingnut posted:i haven't done fantasy football in at least a decade and this league is nuts: So you can start 3 qbs? Is it a 10 team league at least?
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Aug 17, 2021 22:32
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12 teams. $210 auction budget as well. oh, and it's a keeper league. $35 to keep whomever, rises $10 per season. at least those are the rules as of now. might be changing for next season. still, .
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Aug 17, 2021 22:32
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abelwingnut posted:i haven't done fantasy football in at least a decade and this league is nuts:
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Aug 17, 2021 22:37
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I'm into it other than the QB thing though. I like flexibility, our team starts 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB and four flexes that are WR/TE/RB. I think it's silly to force people to start two RBs if they have a bunch of really good receivers. This helps parity too.
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Aug 17, 2021 22:47
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A 3 QB league is ridiculous, no matter what else is going on on it.
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Aug 17, 2021 23:20
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abelwingnut posted:12 teams. $210 auction budget as well. Is this for money?
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Aug 17, 2021 23:29
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Ayudo posted:Kelce is 32 in October. Waller may begin to see age related decline, but I don't see how Kelce isn't an even bigger risk of hitting the cliff this year. Oh yeah, Kelce will more than likely hit the age cliff before Waller, but as kiimo said his game is based off him being an incredible route runner. Thanks for everyone's input, i'm going to stick with Kelce until one of us dies (he might outlive me, who knows!)
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Aug 17, 2021 23:58
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Drunk Nerds posted:Is this for money? yes.
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Aug 18, 2021 00:11
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Sataere posted:Kelce is one of those rare guys where I don't care about his age. Until I see proof of a decline, I assume he'll be good forever. Brady first round pick confirmed
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Aug 18, 2021 00:19
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MakaVillian posted:I'd agree with your edit. I was way more gung-ho for this trade when I thought Waller was like 26 not almost 29. I think age will hit him hard since he relies so much on his speed and physicality. If I’m not going for it all this year, then I’m trading Kelce for Waller and a 1st or Waller, a 2nd, and Corey Davis
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Aug 18, 2021 00:19
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ok, so just talked to the commissioner. he had the number of flex and superflex switched. so to fix: 1 qb 2 rb 3 wr 1 te 1 wr/rb 1 wr/te 2 wr/rb/te 1 qb/wr/rb/te that’s way better, but still nuts, no?
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Aug 18, 2021 00:19
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That's significantly less nuts than 3 QB. Just means you'll have to care about a deeper player pool than most leagues.
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Aug 18, 2021 00:23
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abelwingnut posted:ok, so just talked to the commissioner. he had the number of flex and superflex switched. so to fix: That’s still kinda weird. 2 pseudo flexes, one pretty regular flex, and then the superflex. Plus you’ve already got the 3 WR specific spots. Just seems like it’s over complicating things for the sake of making it “unique” or something. Shoulda just ditched those WR/RB and WR/TE spots and added like one more non-superflex regular flex spot.
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Aug 18, 2021 00:42
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That looks fun as poo poo. What's the buy in? Deep leagues are so much fun. If you bounce let them know I am game.
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Aug 18, 2021 00:45
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abelwingnut posted:ok, so just talked to the commissioner. he had the number of flex and superflex switched. so to fix:
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Aug 18, 2021 01:08
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