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Fox News's opinion desk doesn't run its polling operation, which is historically pretty accurate. 538 grades it higher than the other two pollsters on your list.
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Aug 19, 2021 15:20
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I know 538 is kinda hated on D&D/C-SPAM but like, is this cause for alarm? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/california-recall-polls/ It seems like a coin toss that Newsom gets out and is replaced by Elder, and it seems like conservatives consistently overperform vs polls.
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Aug 19, 2021 18:49
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buglord posted:I know 538 is kinda hated on D&D/C-SPAM but like, is this cause for alarm? It's not just 538, anyone looking at the polls is concluding that things look closer than expected at this point. Conservatives don't actually consistently overperform against polls, though, that's essentially a myth.
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Aug 19, 2021 18:54
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There is a massive enthusiasm gap and it seems like GOP support is coalescing around Elder whereas Dem voters have not rallied around anybody. That said enthusiasm matters a lot less in a default mail-in-ballot election because it takes a lot less effort to drop an envelop in your mailbox than it does to physically go to the polls.
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Aug 19, 2021 18:58
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Even if some crazy ends up as governor, I'm not super worried about it. The government is a massive bureaucracy with many other elected officials at the top levels, so getting things done even when everyone else agrees with you in principle is really hard. That's why, IMHO, Jerry Brown was so effective the second time around. He knew exactly what arms to twist and how and when to expend his political capital. Additionally, if a crazy person starts doing crazy things the reaction with be swift and strong.
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Aug 19, 2021 19:43
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confused posted:if a crazy person starts doing crazy things the reaction with be swift and strong. lol 
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Aug 19, 2021 20:02
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confused posted:Even if some crazy ends up as governor, I'm not super worried about it. The government is a massive bureaucracy with many other elected officials at the top levels, so getting things done even when everyone else agrees with you in principle is really hard. That's why, IMHO, Jerry Brown was so effective the second time around. He knew exactly what arms to twist and how and when to expend his political capital. Additionally, if a crazy person starts doing crazy things the reaction with be swift and strong.
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Aug 19, 2021 20:04
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confused posted:Even if some crazy ends up as governor, I'm not super worried about it. The government is a massive bureaucracy with many other elected officials at the top levels, so getting things done even when everyone else agrees with you in principle is really hard. "progressive" state democrats are suddenly going to bring all the passed bills we ever wanted for swift progressive action knowing that Elders will veto then suddenly they won't have the numbers to override. drat Republicans blocking everything! 
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Aug 19, 2021 20:09
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eSporks posted:The cultural impact alone is terrifying. Who cares if he gets nothing done? That's only going to empower his fanatic base to cry foul even more. Jokes aside, if he removes the mask mandate that kills thousands of kids (and adults). And he will try to do some thing shady about sex education in the schools. Not to mention whatever insane anti-choice thing he’s going to push. That’s all they care about. Introducing something like that to rile up their base, and they might even get away with some of it if it’s some sort of mandate. Either defunding Planned Parenthood type organizations or some thing else equally insane. Not to mention if you thought Gavin Newsom was bad about the police elder is excited to really embody them with even more Power.
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Aug 19, 2021 20:11
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confused posted:Even if some crazy ends up as governor, I'm not super worried about it. The government is a massive bureaucracy with many other elected officials at the top levels, so getting things done even when everyone else agrees with you in principle is really hard. That's why, IMHO, Jerry Brown was so effective the second time around. He knew exactly what arms to twist and how and when to expend his political capital. Additionally, if a crazy person starts doing crazy things the reaction with be swift and strong. While I agree in general, I think at this specific point in time there are some things the governor could do, especially with respect to mask/vaccine mandates, that would have a significant impact. Hopefully we won't have to find out. In other news: https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1428432884457631744
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Aug 19, 2021 20:11
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Rah! posted:lol
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Aug 19, 2021 20:11
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LionArcher posted:Jokes aside, if he removes the mask mandate that kills thousands of kids (and adults). And he will try to do some thing shady about sex education in the schools. Not to mention whatever insane anti-choice thing he’s going to push. That’s all they care about. Introducing something like that to rile up their base, and they might even get away with some of it if it’s some sort of mandate. Either defunding Planned Parenthood type organizations or some thing else equally insane. Not to mention if you thought Gavin Newsom was bad about the police elder is excited to really embody them with even more Power. Again, anyone trying any of these things will quickly run into brick walls. Think of the response of the California Teachers Association if you tried to remove mask mandates in schools. Look at Trump as a comparison. POTUS has several orders of magnitude more power than the gov of CA from both a theoretical and practical standpoint. Unlike a crazy gov of California, Trump had strong and large support among the other branches of government and no real blockades in the Executive. Now, granted, Trump is an incompetent buffoon, but even with all his power, the only lasting thing he was able to accomplish is a massive tax cut for the rich. Even then, the only reason that happened is because the Dem establishment is pro tax cuts for the rich, as long as they can have plausible deniability. Any crazy CA gov will not only have no significant support in either the legislature or courts, but they have to deal with other elected people inside of the executive branch who can just tell them to pound sand. Edit: Just think about the fact that the Lt. Gov has all of the powers of the Gov when the Gov is out of the state. If a crazy person became gov, then they could never leave the state because if they did, the Lt. Gov could immediately undo anything they wanted to. confused fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Aug 19, 2021 |
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Aug 19, 2021 20:42
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The issue will mostly be on the local level in conservative areas that are prepared to go along with whatever a Republican governor dictates. Yes things will probably be business as usual if you're living in an urban center but anywhere outside of that is going to have a death toll connected to a governor lifting mandates or loving with vaccine supplies or whatever else they might get up to. So thanks again to Gavin for making sure there wasn't a Dem backup on the ballot. Anything to preserve himself, even if it kills a few people. Can't make an omelette, etc.
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Aug 19, 2021 20:50
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Falcouner is the guy who could theoretically parlay it into a reelection, but he is far too sane for statewide republicans these days to get the plurality
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Aug 19, 2021 20:52
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Wicked Them Beats posted:The issue will mostly be on the local level in conservative areas that are prepared to go along with whatever a Republican governor dictates. Yes things will probably be business as usual if you're living in an urban center but anywhere outside of that is going to have a death toll connected to a governor lifting mandates or loving with vaccine supplies or whatever else they might get up to. Agreed.
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Aug 19, 2021 21:00
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eSporks posted:The cultural impact alone is terrifying. Who cares if he gets nothing done? That's only going to empower his fanatic base to cry foul even more. Talking to others though I've been convinced that CA GOP in its current form is lazy and corrupt, and likes the things are with their little fiefdoms (CA DEM and CA GOP are made eachother), and there's not the political will in the party to do anything with this in 2022 other than fill their coffers with donations and ride the renewed enthusiasm until a new CA DEM governor is elected in 2022. Nationally though it would still be a black eye for the Democratic Party and it may affect 2022. The one who will most likely benefit the most is Larry Elder himself; he would definitely be limited in what he could do, and this works for him because he doesn't have to accomplish anything else; he can stand up on his bully pulpit and talk about how the "do-nothing democrats" stopped him the whole way, lose in 2022 and peace out with a cultural victory, and then run in the 2024 Republican Presidential Primaries as "the one who won California", trying to make comparisons to Reagan or something. However... droll posted:"progressive" state democrats are suddenly going to bring all the passed bills we ever wanted for swift progressive action knowing that Elders will veto then suddenly they won't have the numbers to override. drat Republicans blocking everything! Anyhow, at the end of the day I think Gavin still has the edge, but I'm looking for the ads. Another goon in thread linked a twitter/article before but this is the most recent ad that they've made: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DbZC0alxSE This is the direction that the ads should go if he wants to keep his job, except I don't think it goes far enough; this is the ad they should have had probably two weeks ago. This is trying to stay half positive by highlighting Gavin's vaccine mandate, but I think that's wasted. They need to lean harder into how people are going to die as a result of Larry Elder being elected, and that'd motivate the base to show up instead of "lol dumb gavin". Ad is only two days old or something though so maybe we'll see more this week. Maybe they don't lean too hard into that though because Gavin has been squeamish on COVID restrictions affecting the whole state when he couldn't take the political pressure anymore, and that probably most people realize Gavin is likely holding off on further restrictions until after the recall election for his own political benefit. But by not implementing those restrictions, he also undercuts how genuine he is on fighting COVID (and risking the lives of Californians. Or at least that's how it comes off to me anyway.... it's not a good position to be in? And there's no backup candidate to fall back on. Also... has anyone seen the above ad in the wild yet? Youtube? TV? or? Edit: The Glumslinger posted:Falcouner is the guy who could theoretically parlay it into a reelection, but he is far too sane for statewide republicans these days to get the plurality It makes sense to me if those two things hadn't happened before the endorsement vote Faulconer likely would have been the leading candidate that then right wing media would have promoted. BeAuMaN fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Aug 19, 2021 |
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Aug 19, 2021 23:01
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BeAuMaN posted:Also... has anyone seen the above ad in the wild yet? Youtube? TV? or? I'm not sure about this particular one but the recall ads play every other commercial break during NFL games here in CA. They are leaning heavy into the "republican recall" narrative and use a lot of 1/6 imagery.
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Aug 19, 2021 23:14
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i'm seeing a ton of facebook ads about the "republican recall", which feels like a mistargeted ad buy because they should have harvested enough of my data to know that i always vote regardless of my outrage levels
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Aug 19, 2021 23:23
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:i'm seeing a ton of facebook ads about the "republican recall", which feels like a mistargeted ad buy because they should have harvested enough of my data to know that i always vote regardless of my outrage levels past performance is no guarantee of future results
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Aug 19, 2021 23:53
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CA Dems have handled this incredibly stupidly and the enthusiasm gap is huge. Republicans think that Newsom is the second coming of Karl Goku Marx and the Democratic voters range from "meh" to "he's a lovely ambititious android" Removing mask mandates is probably the single biggest harm a GOP winner could do, otherwise the legislature mostly has him unable to do anything and they'll probably start trying to pass single payer again since they know the veto is going to happen. It's more of a PR disaster than anything.
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Aug 20, 2021 00:24
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Larry Elder is going to win and ban mask mandates. Then Feinstein and every member of the California Supreme Court will drop dead (of COVID) and Elder will subsequently appoint all of their replacements. It has been foretold.
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Aug 20, 2021 00:30
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BeAuMaN posted:My initial thoughts were that this would turn into a cultural victory for Republicans, maybe reviving CA GOP in the process, throwing CA DEM into chaos, inspiring a million clickbait articles nationally about the prospects of the 2022 mid-terms and how California "might be in play" for 2024 Presidential (it wouldn't actually be in play though, but they'll talk about it because it gets clicks). I’ve seen it three times on YouTube in the last two days and once on tv, so they are pumping it.
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Aug 20, 2021 01:44
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Vox Nihili posted:Larry Elder is going to win and ban mask mandates. Then Feinstein and every member of the California Supreme Court will drop dead (of COVID) and Elder will subsequently appoint all of their replacements. It has been foretold. Yeah if your right you'll see half the blue dogs roll over to republicab vecause it's in fashion.
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Aug 20, 2021 02:10
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LionArcher posted:I’ve seen it three times on YouTube in the last two days and once on tv, so they are pumping it. Do you have personalized ads enabled on your google account? (If the answer is "I don't know", then that's a yes) I disabled personalized ads on mine a while ago so when I see political ads on youtube it's either content based or location based. Like a Jim Costa ad on a gun video? Location based; he's not advertising at the gun crowd. Larry Elder ad on the video of a kind-of-left-leaning-anarchist-youtuber? Probably also location based, as I doubt he's targeting that crowd! (I'm in the Central Valley) Personalized ad buys are better targeted but more expensive. I've seen the Republican Recall ads like the others have talked about but I haven't seen the new COVID one yet.
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Aug 20, 2021 02:27
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BeAuMaN posted:Talking to others though I've been convinced that CA GOP in its current form is lazy and corrupt Things are not getting going to get better economically under either type of governor, and I just see Elder as empowering the fascist portions of his base to get even more violent. A customer came into the store today shortly after opening and was proudly blasting some pro-trump rap song while decked out in flag attire, not really looking forward to more of that. Or the caravans of pickup trucks with confederate flags. Or the aggressive and violent homophobia.
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Aug 20, 2021 03:01
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I'm looking forward to Larry Elder destroying the public school budget so that after a year of plenty we go back to 2009 levels of "Fire everyone"
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Aug 20, 2021 03:09
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Incredible campaign strategy. DesertIslandHermit posted:Wow! Governor Elder!
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Aug 20, 2021 03:31
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FilthyImp posted:I'm looking forward to Larry Elder destroying the public school budget so that after a year of plenty we go back to 2009 levels of "Fire everyone" He’s already bragging about firing incompetent teachers.
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Aug 20, 2021 03:34
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gently caress lmao I don't think you can get away with getting rid of teachers right now, the entire profession is one more piece of bullshit away from quitting en masse. This poo poo sucks edit: maybe this is how Larry Elder accidentally solves coronavirus, he causes the state to lose so many teachers that we're forced to go back to doing online teaching so we can cover the 500 students per teacher we'll need to
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Aug 20, 2021 03:41
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Centrist Committee posted:Incredible campaign strategy. Reminder: residential water usage is like 10%. The issue, fundamentally, is all about agriculture. Unfortunately, this drought is going to be the new normal. Unless we, as humans, go full bore fighting climate change right now, in 30 years CA is going to look like AZ. Politically, the question is, "When do you admit that agriculture is dying in CA?"
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Aug 20, 2021 03:45
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eSporks posted:I agree with most of what you said in terms of political impact at the strategic level, but man, talking to people has me feeling the opposite. Here in the rural burbs, Trumpers are more riled up than ever. Proud boys are still holding rallies. I'm just not looking forward to what a a GOP governor is going to do for these idiots. You still have centrist morons talking about how a GOP governor would be good for "checks and balances." Oh no, don't get me wrong: I'm not talking about the voters, I'm talking about the machine. When I say CA DEM, I mean the state-level party. When I say CA GOP, I mean the state level party. Republican Voters are riled up, but CA GOP knows they can't win in 2022, so they aren't going to put a huge amount of effort into trying to take or retain the Governor's seat in 2022. The resources and everything that would be needed to even do a good attempt are enormous. Instead, they're going to rah rah, take the donations, and pocket them and say "well shucks I guess we couldn't keep that seat afterall". Or so that's my feeling anyway. There's always a grift in politics, but with CA GOP, the effort involved (and building good candidates) isn't worth the fight it would take to take more territory; they have their fiefdoms and they maintain them, and collect donations while maintaining them. Note: Not a political insider or anything; this is just my thoughts and also my feel of the situation having talked to some others who actually know a thing or two.
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Aug 20, 2021 03:58
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https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1428500218769727495?s=19 It may only be a year, but it's going to be a rough loving year.
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Aug 20, 2021 06:36
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confused posted:Reminder: residential water usage is like 10%. The issue, fundamentally, is all about agriculture. Unfortunately, this drought is going to be the new normal. Unless we, as humans, go full bore fighting climate change right now, in 30 years CA is going to look like AZ. Politically, the question is, "When do you admit that agriculture is dying in CA?" https://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/jtf/JTF_WaterUseJTF.pdf For those who want more trivia on this. The "sector" level breakdown on water in CA is 50% to the environment, 40% to agriculture, and 10% to urban. Further still, half of that urban water usage goes to landscaping. If you don't have a farm, golf course or lawn, there is basically nothing you can do to help with water usage in CA as you simply don't use enough as it is. I guess you could be a weirdo who leaves their shower on all day to keep ghosts from coming up the drain pipe, but that doesn't seem terribly likely. This is why you see signs on the 5 telling you to support dams. The only bigger water-user than the farms is the environment, and they want that water. They aren't dumb enough to tell you to use less water, because they can't get much from you even if you cut a great deal.
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Aug 20, 2021 15:40
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MickeyFinn posted:https://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/jtf/JTF_WaterUseJTF.pdf One of my neighbors left for vacation and left their sprinkler system on. I live slightly downhill from them. I didn't notice until my property started to get flooded. Called the water company to come and turn it off. The guy who showed up looked at their meter and said that they had used 20,000 gallons of water in the last 24 hours. I'm pretty sure that was enough water for the entire neighborhood for at least two years.
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Aug 20, 2021 17:03
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Glad I don't have to feel guilty about my bubble baths. I'm going to need something to cope.
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Aug 20, 2021 17:09
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eSporks posted:Glad I don't have to feel guilty about my bubble baths. I'm going to need something to cope. Don't feel guilty about baths! Baths are awesome! If you want to worry about something, worry about lowering your carbon usage. That has a much bigger impact. Recently bought this place and am in the process of getting solar panels put on. Next step is replacing the gas furnace and water heater with heat pumps. My struggle is lowering my meat consumption. That has a huge effect on both carbon emissions and water usage. The trouble for me is that cows and pigs are really tasty. Edit: Also, if you have access to or are capable of installing a charger, get yourself an electric car. Especially given that CA is doing such a great job of switching to renewables, getting all the gas cars off the road will be a huge win. confused fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Aug 20, 2021 |
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Aug 20, 2021 17:20
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I do political postcarding, and I just found out this terrible thing is going to be hitting CA mailboxes next week. Why they thought sending out a forest fire in the middle of summer would somehow show support for Newsom, I have no idea!
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Aug 20, 2021 17:46
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confused posted:The trouble for me is that cows and pigs are really tasty. Assuming I don't perish in a Proud Boys™ Environmental Safety Detention Center, this is what I'll be missing as I munch on my McDonalds McInsect.
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Aug 20, 2021 18:05
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confused posted:One of my neighbors left for vacation and left their sprinkler system on. I live slightly downhill from them. I didn't notice until my property started to get flooded. Called the water company to come and turn it off. The guy who showed up looked at their meter and said that they had used 20,000 gallons of water in the last 24 hours. I'm pretty sure that was enough water for the entire neighborhood for at least two years. that's about twice what a 4 person household uses in a month, or enough to fill a small in-ground swimming pool
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Aug 20, 2021 18:47
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H.P. Hovercraft posted:that's about twice what a 4 person household uses in a month, or enough to fill a small in-ground swimming pool You are right. I was off by two orders of magnitude.
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Aug 20, 2021 19:08
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