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Call me nuts but I'm not wasting a roster spot on the 5'5" guy in the gladiator sport, no matter how deep
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Aug 20, 2021 14:57
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Spoeank posted:Call me nuts but I'm not wasting a roster spot on the 5'5" guy in the gladiator sport, no matter how deep :cryingdarrensproles: huh, how is that not an emote by now? I guess he is listed at 5'6" so he towers over that shrimpy dude. Also for slow draft drafting, I recall the first year of the 20 team league was a slow draft and it took 16 days and the last few rounds needed to be rushed because the season was going to start. On one hand I am inpatient and want to make my picks and see other picks, on the other hand if they start in July or early August and it is going slow at least it is something to do.
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Aug 20, 2021 15:06
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Spoeank posted:Call me nuts but I'm not wasting a roster spot on the 5'5" guy in the gladiator sport, no matter how deep Isnt there a rookie WR who has to drive while sitting on phonebooks?
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Aug 20, 2021 15:25
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illcendiary posted:Does anyone else play in a 12-team standard auction league ($200) where RB values are just way, way over what sites like FantasyPros and ESPN project? Like I see the top RB being worth $70 on some of these lists and you need to pay $80-90 for the top-tier guys in my league. It’s been this way for years and I’m really not sure what we’re undervaluing that is causing this. This is because the projections just take their projected stats and convert them into a formula linearly. This pays zero respect to the fact that the market surges for the high end players. For years I've made my bread-and-butter the strategy of planning to over pay on a few top guys then recouping this when the market cools off on the mid tier-RBs and especially WRs. It's why you can't just print out an auction values chart and bid until whatever number it says. You won't end up with any top 24 guys and will end up overpaying for the next group because those values don't account for the disproportionate lack of capital available after the top tiers have all been "overbid" for. Spoeank posted:Probably guys in the WR and RB 15-30 range.
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Aug 20, 2021 23:46
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Levin posted:Thanks for your input! Unfortunately I don't have little control over these things and think they are locked in for this year at least. On the plus side I believe the yardage is calculated based on fractions per yard. Dynasty rankings always take a ton of salt because there basically is no "standard dynasty scoring" the way there is with redraft. Add in IDP and you make it even less reliable. In my own league I refer to past seasons to see how scoring pans out, it's nice to be able to look and see for example the top scoring players of all time list and see the mix of positions there. Of course a player being on that list doesn't even mean they were owned or relevant since flukes happen (there's two entries on that list where the player was a free agent in the league at the time, lol) but it's illustrative that we've balanced scoring so that no one position dominates. The more roster spots, the less important having a dominant player at one position gets; that applies to QBs as well. You can win this league without having a top QB, or without having a top RB, etc. especially if you put together a monster 6 IDP guys. That said, the winners of our league tend to have good choices across their whole roster without too many weak positions. So to answer your question, how to factor scoring/roster into rankings lists? I look at rankings lists in terms of tiers, at best, and would never have a problem taking a player early or late within their own tier. Taking a player a tier above or below I need to justify in some way - could be based on our scoring, or could be based on my read. But you know what? Even the best fantasy football evaluators out there are wrong probably 60%+ of the time! There's so much random chance in this endeavor. At some point, whether you're scoring tackles at 1pt or 1.5pts each, whether you've got return yards, whether you're putting a premium on interceptions, etc. just doesn't matter as much with evaluating picks because who the hell can say which of the third-tier DBs are gonna get the most interceptions this year? Nobody, that's who, and anyone who ranks them by projected INT numbers might as well be picking numbers at random. Lastly: I very much doubt that most fantasy player rankers are taking into account which players have hinted on twitter that they haven't vaxxed.
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Aug 20, 2021 23:50
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Leperflesh posted:. I am going to assume the week 16 Kamara absolutely destroying my championship chance is #1 on that list. That link can stay blue.
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Aug 21, 2021 00:13
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Spermy Smurf posted:I am going to assume the week 16 Kamara absolutely destroying my championship chance is #1 on that list. That link can stay blue. lol yup  but look at number three!  he was an FA when he did this!
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Aug 21, 2021 00:23
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Leperflesh posted:
so Daniel Jones can lead to playoff wins!
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Aug 21, 2021 00:31
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Leperflesh posted:Dynasty rankings always take a ton of salt because there basically is no "standard dynasty scoring" the way there is with redraft. Add in IDP and you make it even less reliable. Thanks for the thoughtful response! Given my limited time I think I'll just do some basic reading, set some tiers and focus on each round independently taking into consideration my roster so far and position needs instead of overall rankings worrying about VBD as I have in the past. Pretty surprised there isn't some accounting for the possibility of a particular player contracting Covid-19, let alone what that could spell for their team. I guess being out of the loop last season I'm admittedly clueless as to how the pandemic was handled by the league or factored in by experts.
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Aug 21, 2021 03:16
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I went to the fantasy football expo this weekend and the goon dynasty league I'm in said I should post some impressions about it in the thread: - everyone there is a goon. Everyone. It was one of the nerdiest things I've ever been to. It was a weird thing to go to because outside of Michael Fabiano, Scott Fish, Andy Behrens and Denny Carter, most of the "celebrities" were extremely niche. Troy King, Dave Kluge, the Madgziuks, etc. If you know fantasy twitter, I spent most of my time with Herms (and Sataere, if you know goons) - First day was a loosely affiliated event called Draft Night Out. It was fine, I had a pretty good draft. One thing I learned from this is that even the "experts" get lost without a guiding sheet. I was doing stickers for our draft *and* I drafted the fastest because I had a beersheet. Literally all it took and I was one of like 3 people who weren't falling apart at the seams. - everyone was extremely cool and nice, and nobody got really mad about rankings or whatever. I attended some breakout panels for sports betting and a pretty neat auction draft software called Drafty. It has a ton of unique features (including 4 bids at once, the ability to "throw back" a player and recoup their salary, "folding" on bids). - There was a mixer with everyone, and I met a bunch of cool people and we argued about stuff, all in good fun. That's where I met the people with the smartest idea. These were their business cards: https://twitter.com/BreakoutDynasty/status/1425533344561852419?s=19 - The actual expo had a pro expert mock draft and it was the most dogshit draft I have ever seen in my life. JD McKissic in the 7th. Jonnu Smith in the 8th. Just an absolute nightmare. So if you're afraid your draft is going awry just remember that experts took Adam Thielen before Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett and that Ryan Tannehill was a 6th round pick in this. - as for the presentations at the expo, there wasn't much that was super exciting. Madden 22 early demo I didn't get a chance to check out and a bunch of dynasty stuff. - but the conversations! The conversations were great. Everyone was there to talk fantasy and I got a chance to crowdsource stuff for the dynasty slow draft I'm in - masking was spotty but everyone I talked to had been vaxxed so it will hopefully work out 😬. - EVERY EXPERT IS SCARED SHITLESS OF AUCTION DRAFTS All in all it was a great experience and if you think it's not for fantasy randoms, you're wrong. I can't wait to go back next year!
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Aug 21, 2021 04:48
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Spoeank posted:I went to the fantasy football expo this weekend and the goon dynasty league I'm in said I should post some impressions about it in the thread: They coached you into Trey Lance over Fields? The madmen! Yeah I'm blowing up your draft
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Aug 21, 2021 05:11
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Awesome, thanks for sharing that. But...Spoeank posted:- EVERY EXPERT IS SCARED SHITLESS OF AUCTION DRAFTS Why? Just the unpredictability of them all?
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Aug 21, 2021 05:20
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Ches Neckbeard posted:They coached you into Trey Lance over Fields? The madmen! That was all me baby. But I literally ran the Stafford trade by the Dynasty Trade Calculator guys lol Silly Burrito posted:Awesome, thanks for sharing that. But... Unfamiliarity mostly. It's easy to bang out a mock draft snake in an hour and you're done with it, and most DFS and high stakes drafts are snake. There's not a lot of experience which is why their "values" are always just converted projections. It's a whole new ballgame that none of them bothered to learn
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Aug 21, 2021 05:24
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Spoeank posted:That was all me baby. But I literally ran the Stafford trade by the Dynasty Trade Calculator guys lol Well, did you win that trade or did I? 
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Aug 21, 2021 05:28
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Silly Burrito posted:Awesome, thanks for sharing that. But... Also a lot of the appeal of fantasy football is how cerebral you can get with it. Every projection and injury likelihood beep boops into fantasy points. The experts spend all day beep booping numbers. So I can see why "hey to be great at auctions you can't just convert projections into values with a formula. You have to consider human nature and behavior" would scare the hell out of a lot of them.
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Aug 21, 2021 16:03
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In my redraft I'm keeping Justin Jefferson in the 8th round over JK Dobbins in the second. I know this is the right decision, however I'm just letting you know that Dobbins is going to be a league winner now.
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Aug 21, 2021 16:36
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Silly Burrito posted:Well, did you win that trade or did I? That's up to you. We ran the 2022 as a late second... you win We ran it as an early second... I win. The choice is yours and yours alone
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Aug 21, 2021 17:51
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Spoeank posted:That's up to you. Good trades should feel like we both got equal value and we both won, so I'm going with that.
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Aug 21, 2021 18:20
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Sataere and I are doing an ESPN mock auction stream in 10 minutes. Feel free to hop in https://fantasy.espn.com/football/waitingroom?leagueId=783916539 Because of ESPN's weirdo projections (Travis KElce $68, Patrick MAhomes $10), auctions there tend to not follow the patterns of everywhere else. I'm almost done formulating a repeatable strategy for ESPN leagues that I will obviously share here when I finish it.
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Aug 21, 2021 20:50
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https://twitter.com/5thDownFantasy/status/1429177241573937157?s=19 kiimo redemption tour
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Aug 21, 2021 21:24
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Does Beersheets still update several times a week?
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Aug 21, 2021 22:31
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VietCampo posted:Does Beersheets still update several times a week? Daily at least. Sometimes 2-3x/day. There's a "most recently updated" data in the top right corner. If you're getting an older sheet, then clear your cache
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Aug 22, 2021 00:16
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This is like the first draft I’ve ever done where I didn’t feel great about my team. QB- Mahomes RB- Chubb RB- Gibson WR- McLaurin WR-DJ Moore WR- Golladay TE- Fant Flex- Swift B- Jeudy B- Jamarr Chase B- David Johnson B- Brandon Cooks B- Devin Singletary B- Tony Pollard D/ST- Rams K- Succop I kept Gibson and Swift in the 14th and 8th respectively. I feel like I should have went harder on top WRs instead of Mahomes early, and after my top 3 rbs my depth is trash.
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Aug 22, 2021 00:32
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Is that redraft? You only need 2 RBs. You will grab a handcuff soon once an injury happens. You have Cooks and Jeudy who can flex easy imo. Not a bad draft but week versus week is based on fantasy luck so no one knows.
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Aug 22, 2021 00:34
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Yea it’s redraft with 2 keepers per team. 0.5 ppr
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Aug 22, 2021 00:49
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RCarr posted:This is like the first draft I’ve ever done where I didn’t feel great about my team. Looks fine to me! Your RBs aren’t real great receiving backs (don’t know if it’s a PPR league) but I’m a Moore and Jeudy believer. Cooks is the only Texan I’d consider drafting and I’m not sure Golladay’s new pastures are that much greener with all the targets on the Giants My longtime redraft league’s commish just quit with no warning so we have to nominate a new commissioner and a find a new addition. It’s getting contentious
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Aug 22, 2021 01:04
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Yeah that team is the definition of “solid” in my book. Also please note I’ve come in last in my keeper league the last two seasons.
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Aug 22, 2021 01:36
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RCarr posted:Yea it’s redraft with 2 keepers per team. 0.5 ppr 6 team and that's the best you got? Fuckin scrub man. 12 team or 8 team? Edit: it's an absolute poo poo 8 team draft.
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Aug 22, 2021 02:10
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Spermy Smurf posted:6 team and that's the best you got? Fuckin scrub man. 10 team
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Aug 22, 2021 02:31
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10 team, standard scoring. I have pick 7. If Kelce falls to me, what RBs would I take ahead of him? Obviously changes my team structure a good deal if I go Kelce round 1, but it's drat tempting if he's there. Think Chubb/Jones is about the line below which Kelce would make sense.
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Aug 22, 2021 23:58
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shirts and skins posted:10 team, standard scoring. I have pick 7. In standard scoring, Kelce should not be taken in the 1st. Chubb, Jones, JT, Barkley, maybe even Gibson? Couple WR's i'd take before him too.
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Aug 23, 2021 00:08
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shirts and skins posted:10 team, standard scoring. I have pick 7. I’d take Chubb in standard scoring at 7. I wouldn’t think Kelce would still be available in round 2 for you but I wouldn’t blame you for grabbing Kelce in the first. But it puts you in a hole in terms of your RB strength cause the studs will all be gone by your second round pick Maybe I’m not understanding your question though
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Aug 23, 2021 00:16
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Keith Atherton posted:I’d take Chubb in standard scoring at 7. I wouldn’t think Kelce would still be available in round 2 for you but I wouldn’t blame you for grabbing Kelce in the first. But it puts you in a hole in terms of your RB strength cause the studs will all be gone by your second round pick You understood me correctly. I'm trying to gauge whether it's worth taking him in round 1. Based on my mock drafts it seems like the answer is probably "no", although he did drag my corpse of a team to the playoffs last year (my picks were Saquon, Mixon, Kelce - 1/3 ain't bad?). My instinct in 10 team is always to go RB/RB, probably one of Chubb/Zeke/Jones based on availability followed by someone in the Mixon/Gibson/Najee Harris tier. Several mocks have had Davante Adams/Tyreek Hill fall to 2.4 though and that's basically impossible to pass up even if my RB2 ends up being, say, JK Dobbins. VietCampo posted:In standard scoring, Kelce should not be taken in the 1st. Yeah, I think you're right that Kelce isn't worth the 1st rounder. As always, I'll just keep loving around with mocks till I get to a strategy that makes the best looking teams. Thanks to you both.
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Aug 23, 2021 00:27
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Spoeank posted:https://twitter.com/5thDownFantasy/status/1429177241573937157?s=19 Darwin Thompson making the roster based on survival of the fittest
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Aug 23, 2021 16:50
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I had a draft! ESPN 1PPR, 6pt passings tds, 10 team snake. I was pick 3 QB- Justin Herbert RB- Dalvin Cook RB- Antonio Gibson WR- Stefon Diggs WR- Robert Woods TE- Anthony Firkser Flex- Josh Jacobs K- Harrison Butker Def- 49ers Bench- Chase Edmonds Bench- Jamarr Chase Bench- Michael Thomas Bench- Michael Carter Bench- Cory Davis Bench- Russel Gage Bench- Trey Lance Obviously I'm not thrilled about TE. I'll probably toss Lance and pick up another dart throw, but other than that I'm pretty happy
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Aug 24, 2021 00:17
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I'd get rid of Russell Gage for a second TE before Lance
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Aug 24, 2021 00:25
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10 Team Standard Scoring Had 2nd pick and like this team. So ready to get dead last. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, W/R/T, D, K 1. (2) Dalvin Cook (Min - RB) 2. (19) Jonathan Taylor (Ind - RB) 3. (22) Darren Waller (LV - TE) 4. (39) Kyler Murray (Ari - QB) 5. (42) D'Andre Swift (Det - RB) 6. (59) Robert Woods (LAR - WR) 7. (62) Jerry Jeudy (Den - WR) 8. (79) Raheem Mostert (SF - RB) 9. (82) Tee Higgins (Cin - WR) 10. (99) Gus Edwards (Bal - RB) 11. (102) Michael Carter (NYJ - RB) 12. (119) Mecole Hardman (KC - WR) 13. (122) Arizona (Ari - DEF) 14. (139) Matt Gay (LAR - K) Already dropped Carter for Mike Williams and AZ for Indy
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Aug 24, 2021 00:28
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Alfalfa posted:Already dropped Carter for Mike Williams Why would you do that? (Unless I missed relevant injury news last few days)
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Aug 24, 2021 00:32
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https://twitter.com/andrewsiciliano/status/1429947417789558792?s=21 Seems bad
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Aug 24, 2021 00:40
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sourdough posted:Why would you do that? (Unless I missed relevant injury news last few days) He’s running with the 2’s & 3’s and firmly behind Coleman & Ty Johnson. Even Perine is getting more snaps than him in pre-season games.
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Aug 24, 2021 00:43
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