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To be fair I drafted McLaurin as my WR1 so obviously he’s amazing now in my eyes.
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Aug 26, 2021 03:50
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AAAAA! Real Muenster posted:My redraft league that is keeping keepers for the first time this year is drafting tonight. Would it be dirty of me to draft Etienne really late then stash him on IR all year so I could keep him for cheap next year? I don't see how it is dirty when nothing prevents another owner from making the same move. In my keeper league stuff like that happens every year, with the risk being someone else drafting him late but a round before you plan to.
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Aug 26, 2021 04:09
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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Spermy Smurf posted:Just wait for a dude to break out. Jefferson wasn't rostered last year I bet. Neither was Robinson. Snag both, or any guys like Herbert on the cusp of breaking out. Bid on all of them, don't wait a week just to see if they repeat their weeks. 10th round baby He's my one keeper in my one-keeper league. Top 5 receiver for an 8th rounder lol
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Aug 26, 2021 05:17
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" posted:NO. PLAYER 14 teams, 0.5 ppr, 0.05 passing, IDP-style defense scoring I am not super happy with this draft. Noah was a homer pick and I also have Henry (who is a bit of a lotto ticket, I trust his athleticism and I am hoping Mac takes over strong). But I also picked Henry in a panic after like three guys I wanted were taken ahead of him. Defense seems early but Denver will produce good points in this scoring. Not sure how to feel about Parris, really depends on the other WRs and the QB situation. Mostert and Johnson as my back up RBs is worrying but my hope is I can replace them with waiver guys sooner than later. Otherwise I think it's decent. e: probably worth mentioningg that I was aiming for Herbert but settled for Landry/Stafford on the turn where he was swooped. B-? 3 DONG HORSE fucked around with this message at 15:26 on Aug 26, 2021 |
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Aug 26, 2021 15:22
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Love your first 4 picks, can’t help but feel that WR value would have been better than Mostert at 67 (is it 2 rb 2 wr 1 flex?) especially with Sermon and Lance taking his rushing work. Would rather have Pittman than Campbell. Stafford is ok there, might have been able to hold out for fields or lance and then take a temp qb to tide you over. I don’t think I would have taken Henry, you paid for a good TE and I’d rather have a rookie WR like Rondale Moore or Marshall there. I think you’ve definitely got talent and upside with Ekeler and Ridley, I wouldn’t be down on this.
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Aug 26, 2021 16:34
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buffalo all day posted:had my first draft last night, 14-team league, 2 keepers, 6 point passing TDs, .5 ppr. 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 2 FLEX 1 TE 1 D 1 K: Quoting for this page so you can see my 14 team experience (and if anyone wants to tell me I’m a big idiot)
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Aug 26, 2021 16:38
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I feel like I've done that. Just completely fumble the wide receivers at the top of the draft and then make up for it with a lot of young fliers at the end of the draft. Maybe it will work out for you but it has rarely worked out for me.
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Aug 26, 2021 17:02
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kiimo posted:I feel like I've done that. Just completely fumble the wide receivers at the top of the draft and then make up for it with a lot of young fliers at the end of the draft. Yeah I think the big turning point was taking Pitts over Lockett or Thielen or Diontae. Putting a lot of faith in the idea that having a TE advantage is even more dramatic in a 14 team league. But I think when this blows up my face that’s where I’ll point fingers.
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Aug 26, 2021 17:26
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I'm not as high on Pitts either just based on my history with young players. I go overboard on potential and draft players who aren't ready to explode. I can't tell you how many times I drafted a player who became a fantasy star a year after I owned them. It's just risky to trust first year players. For every Justin Jefferson I tend to draft two Mecole Hardmans. Sure they flash but the consistency isn't there enough for wins
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Aug 26, 2021 18:17
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Pitts years 2+ are when I'd start considering him. Can't bring myself to jump on a rookie TE early.
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Aug 26, 2021 18:19
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If he doesn't get much action this season for being a rookie he will be a great buy low from impatient owners
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Aug 26, 2021 18:32
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I have done a complete 180 on Pitts and now feel he is absolutely worth targeting in order to potentially get a TE who gives you a weekly advantage. From the reports out of Falcons’ camp, he is basically a TE in name only. They are lining him up constantly as a receiver where he has been dominant and he is barely doing any blocking or in-line work. And now they’re hiding him away during preseason games. He is going to have a major receiving role for this team and is likely to produce more like a rookie WR than a rookie TE.
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Aug 26, 2021 18:43
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Yep Pitts is wild in that the bull and bear cases are so clear because there just is no history of success with rookie TEs: Bull: Draft capital Good qb Minimal competition for targets Talent/physical profile Good coaching Bear: QB maybe isn’t good? Rookie TEs are always bad No really, rookie TEs are always bad Seriously, rookie TEs are always bad
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Aug 26, 2021 18:43
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So it turns out I'm a big loving idiot that didnt account for byes very well (or maybe I accidentally did?) AND I forgot that this was a 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex league, rather than 2 Flex. I drafted Jacobs where I should have taken McLaurin (as someone mentioned yesterday) AND I took Mooney later on in the draft despite already having ARob. If you were the team on the right, would you accept a trade of Swift and ARob for Diggs and Drake? I just offered it and he's thinking but I figured I would sanity check with you guys too - doing that trade replaces a Bears WR with a better non-Bears WR and replaces what would be my 4th RB (that would never see the field with only 3 spots to put RBs) with a handcuff to one of my other RBs and a better WR.
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Aug 26, 2021 18:49
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Think I heard somewhere that the greatest Rookie TE season of all time would basically be TE5 last year or something like that? I'm probably wrong on the specifics but that was the gist. Maybe Pitts works out? But for that draft capital I'm way way more likely to get value elsewhere.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:18
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buffalo all day posted:Yep Pitts is wild in that the bull and bear cases are so clear because there just is no history of success with rookie TEs: Brand new head coach. Who knows if they're good yet.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:21
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Worrying about byes at this point is getting too cute IMO. Especially in a keeper or dynasty league. By the time they start hitting in-season, you’ll be in a better position to turn your roster over and make trades/waiver claims and shore up any gaps in your roster to cover the byes. Team-agnostic, I’d prefer Swift/ARob to Diggs/Drake. If Fields is as good as advertised, ARob could have a WR1 season. Swift certainly has an RB1 season in his range of outcomes this year and beyond. Diggs is awesome and has a strong chance to finish as THE WR1, but Drake is basically a flex play with injury upside. I’m also not a huge fan of handcuffing my own RB in redraft leagues because it limits team upside.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:21
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Quarterroys posted:Worrying about byes at this point is getting too cute IMO. Especially in a keeper or dynasty league. Yeah that's a lot to give up in my mind to sort out bye weeks, but i'm in love with Swift this year (moreso than Jacobs) so I may be biased. Edit: Agreed about handcuffing your own players as well
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Aug 26, 2021 19:28
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Quarterroys posted:Worrying about byes at this point is getting too cute IMO. Especially in a keeper or dynasty league. What about trading Swift or Jacobs for DJ Moore straight up? edit: I also just remembered that the guy that won the championship last year did it starting Jefferson and Theilen, and yeah Fields might up the value of both ARob and Mooney.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:29
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shirts and skins posted:Think I heard somewhere that the greatest Rookie TE season of all time would basically be TE5 last year or something like that? I'm probably wrong on the specifics but that was the gist. Yeah something like that. No one can say it’s impossible that he returns value at that draft price but it’s not likely at all. Most people aren’t as down on him as it seems, they’re down on the price he’s going at. I’m more than happy to let others take him there.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:30
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I usually am one to trust the base rates/trends (like the aforementioned rookie TE slow start) and temper expectations on non-RB rookies in year one, but Pitts is an insane unicorn prospect, and doesn’t even turn 21 until October. I think his cost in redraft leagues (what is he, 4th round now?) is palatable, but it really depends on your roster build. I think I’d rather pay up for Kelce/Waller/Kittle and catch the end of that WR tier. Pay whatever you have to to get him on your team now in dynasty leagues, though. He will be a first round startup pick next year in TE premium leagues.
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Aug 26, 2021 19:30
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In general, the reason for the slow start for TEs is cause they have to learn two positions: they have to be receivers and offensive linemen. If they completely outsource the latter duties to Hayden Hurst though and have Pitts focus solely on receiving, then his adjustment to the NFL should be significantly easier. It’s a harder pill to swallow in a snake draft than auction but I do think he’s the only guy with a ceiling within range of the big three and elite TE production has such a strong correlation with win rate that he’s worth the gamble at his cost. He could be a guy whose weekly upside is 100 yards and a TD and I don’t think any other TE after him can do that.
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Aug 26, 2021 20:26
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Tiptoes posted:I have done a complete 180 on Pitts and now feel he is absolutely worth targeting in order to potentially get a TE who gives you a weekly advantage. From the reports out of Falcons’ camp, he is basically a TE in name only. They are lining him up constantly as a receiver where he has been dominant and he is barely doing any blocking or in-line work. And now they’re hiding him away during preseason games. He is going to have a major receiving role for this team and is likely to produce more like a rookie WR than a rookie TE. Granting you the "TE in name only" point: rookie wide receviers drafted in days one and two return top-36 value about one-in-five times since 2010, and WR36 is roughly analogous to TE4 in points per game, you're drafting him at his ceiling. This is before getting into Arthur Smith likely wanting to run the ball down your throat and out your anus Tiptoes posted:In general, the reason for the slow start for TEs is cause they have to learn two positions: they have to be receivers and offensive linemen. If they completely outsource the latter duties to Hayden Hurst though and have Pitts focus solely on receiving, then his adjustment to the NFL should be significantly easier. upside of 100 yards and a touchdown, just stop lol
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Aug 26, 2021 20:33
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complete list of every rookie WR/TE with multiple 100 yards and a touchdown games since 2000
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Aug 26, 2021 20:36
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dkj posted:Yeah something like that. This is where I'm at. Dunno where he's going in redraft, but probably too early for me to get him anywhere.
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Aug 26, 2021 20:38
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I had such high hopes for Martavis back in the day
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Aug 26, 2021 20:39
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As a Packers fan, I generally tried to avoid football news this offseason for, y'know, reasons. However, I just realized that I have three fantasy drafts coming up in the next week, so I'm really behind the eight ball. I have zero compunctions about buying player rankings; I've done it the last few years. Specifically, I've bought the Rotoworld season-long guide for about $50. I can do that again, but I'm sure there are a ton of resources out there and I'm curious if anyone has a comparable resource for free or cheap, or a better resource for a similar price. Ever since the horrible rebrand for Rotoworld (sorry, NBC Sports Edge), I've been a little leery of them, so I just wanted to gauge whether the wise goons are looking elsewhere. Thank you!
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Aug 26, 2021 20:39
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sourdough posted:This is where I'm at. Dunno where he's going in redraft, but probably too early for me to get him anywhere. TE4! Between picks 40 and 48! He's a fourth-rounder! People are out of control! surf rock posted:As a Packers fan, I generally tried to avoid football news this offseason for, y'know, reasons. However, I just realized that I have three fantasy drafts coming up in the next week, so I'm really behind the eight ball. get you a beersheet brother http://footballabsurdity.com/beersheet-request-form/
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Aug 26, 2021 20:40
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Spoeank posted:complete list of every rookie WR/TE with multiple 100 yards and a touchdown games since 2000 Ah but Pitts was drafted before almost all of them, and is a literal unicorn
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Aug 26, 2021 20:40
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Spoeank posted:complete list of every rookie WR/TE with multiple 100 yards and a touchdown games since 2000
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Aug 26, 2021 20:54
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The best guys did it one-third of the time and you said that it was his "weekly upside" Either weekly upside means nothing in your statement (everyone in the NFL has 100+TD upside) or you thought he could do it more often than 5 or so times edit: taking Kyle Pitts in the fourth (at ADP) is hoping to reap the whirlwind on a legendarily statistical outlier season that that will, at most, buy you 1.5-2 rounds worth of value. If you're so hard for a TE take whichever of Waller or Kittle falls to you in the second/third Spoeank fucked around with this message at 21:01 on Aug 26, 2021 |
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Aug 26, 2021 20:58
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Don’t be pedantic. You know I wasn’t saying “he is going to hit 100/1 every week.” That’s his ceiling when you have him in your lineup and it’s not going to be in rare matchups like a Noah Fant.
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Aug 26, 2021 21:02
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Noah Fant currently holds the record for 100+TD rookie TE games with 2
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Aug 26, 2021 21:04
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Pitts is really going in the 4th round? That's crazy. Could see a believer taking him in the 6th but not in the 4th potentially over guys like Cooper, Lockett, Kupp, and D. Johnson.
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Aug 26, 2021 21:31
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Pitts went R3 in my startup dynasty league. That same guy then took Kittle in R4.
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Aug 26, 2021 22:23
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They're going to flip Kittle before the draft next year for the highest 1st they can get. Still a dumb pick.
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Aug 26, 2021 22:53
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Spoeank posted:get you a beersheet brother Yooo, what on earth, this is sick! Filed two requests; one was already made and another is in the works. This is great poo poo. One other question for my fellow degenerates in return-yardage leagues: is there anyone fantasy-relevant still doing returns? Lockett and JuJu were for a while, but I don't know if either are at this point.
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Aug 26, 2021 23:18
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Spoeank posted:Noah Fant currently holds the record for 100+TD rookie TE games with 2 Fant is basically a JAG and Pitts is like an elite rookie WR who you can start at TE. I’m not touching him at his ADP just because I’m not big on huge risks early in drafts but he certainly has a ridiculous upside. It’s certainly not crazy to expect him to outperform all recent rookie TE production. Have they talked about lining him up at WR at all?
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Aug 26, 2021 23:36
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surf rock posted:One other question for my fellow degenerates in return-yardage leagues: is there anyone fantasy-relevant still doing returns? Lockett and JuJu were for a while, but I don't know if either are at this point. Maybe a few. 4for4 seems to do a decent job covering that front: https://www.4for4.com/2021/preseason/punt-kickoff-return-depth-chart-and-players-target
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Aug 26, 2021 23:44
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RCarr posted:Fant is basically a JAG and Pitts is like an elite rookie WR who you can start at TE. I’m not touching him at his ADP just because I’m not big on huge risks early in drafts but he certainly has a ridiculous upside. It’s certainly not crazy to expect him to outperform all recent rookie TE production. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/f...2021-potential/ posted:"He's a receiver, basically," Dolphins safety Eric Rowe said after covering him through the first of two practices this week. "He's long. He can move. I know he's going to cause problems."
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Aug 27, 2021 00:50
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