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Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




Levin posted:

Drafted from 1.01 and feeling pretty good about results:


Went CMC, Joe Mixon, Darren Waller, Josh Allen, DAndre Swift. Felt like I hit some good spots in tiers and am happy with WR corps I was able to cobble together all things considered. Wondering if handcuffing CMC and DAndre Swift was worth doing. Also if getting Sam Darnold to have a Panthers stack was worth it.

Good draft, yes on handcuffs, dump darnold and Henry for another RB and WR

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shirts and skins
Jun 25, 2007

Good morning!
Feeling vaguely meh about my first draft but I think I got some good value. Couple of guys I was hoping for got sniped but that's why we draft in tiers.

From spot 01.07 in a 10 team standard redraft.

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Aaron Jones
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Tyler Higbee
Flex: DJ Moore
D/ST: 49ers
K: Brandon McManus

BE: Raheem Mostert
BE: Chase Claypool
BE: Devonta Smith
BE: Deebo Samuel
BE: Marquez Callaway
BE: Trey Lance

I think I need better RB depth, Mostert is a home run pick but is injured too often. A league mate drafted too many Ravens and is considering moving Gus Edwards. Maybe I could entice him with Mostert and a receiver if I get some good week 1s.

I know I shouldn't be carrying two qbs, will probably ditch Lance in roster churn.

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020
Did you all know that Russell Wilson has never missed a game in his NFL career? I just bumped into that fact this morning and it elicited a "Holy loving poo poo!"

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020
Are there more Austin Eckler and Joe Mixon skeptics or believers here? I have read/listened to a number of fantasy football "gurus" who are pushing both of those guys as league winners but I just can't get past my doubts. I think both underperform.

GhostOfTomNook
Aug 17, 2003

El gallo Pinto no pinta,
el que pinta es el pintor.


dkj posted:

It’s rarely a good idea to take an early QB and an early TE.

Roast me. I didn't draft a kicker so I'm planning to drop Latavius Murray for one unless something horrible befalls one of my better players before Sunday.

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006





excellent draft, you're correct on dropping Lance for an RB.

GhostOfTomNook posted:

Roast me. I didn't draft a kicker so I'm planning to drop Latavius Murray for one unless something horrible befalls one of my better players before Sunday.



keep Murray drop Lindsay


CocoaNuts posted:

Are there more Austin Eckler and Joe Mixon skeptics or believers here? I have read/listened to a number of fantasy football "gurus" who are pushing both of those guys as league winners but I just can't get past my doubts. I think both underperform.

I lean toward agreeing with you.


you did good but dump brown and Pittman for RBs.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

CocoaNuts posted:

Are there more Austin Eckler and Joe Mixon skeptics or believers here? I have read/listened to a number of fantasy football "gurus" who are pushing both of those guys as league winners but I just can't get past my doubts. I think both underperform.

I see Mixon and ekeler as two sides of the same coin. Both are talented players on offenses poised to make the leap forward.

Only one doesnt have a big track record of injury and offensive line issues

Levin
Jun 28, 2005


Fate Accomplice posted:

Good draft, yes on handcuffs, dump darnold and Henry for another RB and WR

Thanks for the input! Unfortunately the team is locked and loaded, no waivers or trades so I'm stuck with what I got. The idea behind Darnold was to "stack" him with my other Panthers players. My understanding of the concept is that if the team or other players have a good week so will Darnold which can help me win the pot that week. Might be I got that wrong and it should only be done with your QB1 since Josh Allen will likely always score more. Think other options were Derek Carr, Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz.

I'm with you on Henry, I was hoping to snag Jonnu Smith but he went just before my turn and before that most of the TEs were going at points that didn't seem worth it compared to filling out WRs and RBs.

shirts and skins posted:

Feeling vaguely meh about my first draft but I think I got some good value. Couple of guys I was hoping for got sniped but that's why we draft in tiers.

From spot 01.07 in a 10 team standard redraft.

QB: Tom Brady
RB: Aaron Jones
RB: Najee Harris
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Keenan Allen
TE: Tyler Higbee
Flex: DJ Moore
D/ST: 49ers
K: Brandon McManus

BE: Raheem Mostert
BE: Chase Claypool
BE: Devonta Smith
BE: Deebo Samuel
BE: Marquez Callaway
BE: Trey Lance

I think I need better RB depth, Mostert is a home run pick but is injured too often. A league mate drafted too many Ravens and is considering moving Gus Edwards. Maybe I could entice him with Mostert and a receiver if I get some good week 1s.

I know I shouldn't be carrying two qbs, will probably ditch Lance in roster churn.

Looks pretty darn good to me. Two QBs given depth of your bench and number of teams does seem like a luxury and a little more RB depth would help.

Levin fucked around with this message at 15:14 on Sep 3, 2021

Whoreson Welles
Mar 4, 2015

ON TO THE NEXT PAGE!
I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort

Whoreson Welles posted:

I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

Drunk Nerds posted:

The argument for Swift is: He was RB19 in HPPR with under 200 touches. Anthony Lynn took UDFA Austin Ekeler and turned him into a late first round fantasy darling. Now he's in Detroit, who doesn't have anyone nearly as good as Philip Rivers to sling the ball, they have to give a ton of volume to the whole RB core. His injury is a concern, but I want my sixth round pick to win me games late in the season, not now.

Also the Lions should have a top 5 OL this year and are going to try to run it a lot to keep pressure off of Goff and the D.

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020

Whoreson Welles posted:

I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

There's another guy I'm not drafting!

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




Levin posted:

Thanks for the input! Unfortunately the team is locked and loaded, no waivers or trades so I'm stuck with what I got.

wait you're not allowed to make any changes for the entire season?

so the draft is the only thing you do all year?

if so, having a second QB/TE is fine.

dkj
Feb 18, 2009

Whoreson Welles posted:

I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

He’s talented and a lead/pass catching back with expected volume.

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




Whoreson Welles posted:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

the Lions will be bottom 3 in the NFL this season.

Goff is a tire fire who can't find an open receiver with a 20 second head start, but that's OK because the Lions have the worst WRs in the league.

Swift is hurt already and will see stacked boxes for each of his healthy games.

Ayudo
Mar 30, 2006

Whoreson Welles posted:

I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

He was a great prospect coming into the league that profiles like a Kamara/Ekeler space back, so the hope is he can see a ton of pass volume and parlay that into high per touch production.

The lions will be bad, but may be a six or seven win team and be drawn into some boat races late in games.

The downside is obviously the Lions could be dog poo poo and Anthony Lynn could decide Jamaal Williams needs to be on the field a ton for pass protection or plodding runs up the gut.

If you're drafting for ceiling Swift is a good bet at his price. The downside is already priced in.

E: He also suffered a groin injury like a month ago. So there's in season reinjury concern too.

Ayudo fucked around with this message at 15:32 on Sep 3, 2021

Quiet Feet
Dec 14, 2009

THE HELL IS WITH THIS ASS!?





We should trust the Lions track record of producing great RBs in the past decade.

Levin
Jun 28, 2005


Fate Accomplice posted:

wait you're not allowed to make any changes for the entire season?

so the draft is the only thing you do all year?

if so, having a second QB/TE is fine.

That's the long and short of it, Yahoo public money league. Felt like drafting some more but not managing teams. Usually 2-4 QBs and TEs are drafted depending on the quality of your starter.

Ayudo posted:

He was a great prospect coming into the league that profiles like a Kamara/Ekeler space back, so the hope is he can see a ton of pass volume and parlay that into high per touch production.

The lions will be bad, but may be a six or seven win team and be drawn into some boat races late in games.

The downside is obviously the Lions could be dog poo poo and Anthony Lynn could decide Jamaal Williams needs to be on the field a ton for pass protection or plodding runs up the gut.

If you're drafting for ceiling Swift is a good bet at his price. The downside is already priced in.

E: He also suffered a groin injury like a month ago. So there's in season reinjury concern too.

For me it just seemed like quality where I got him. My rankings had him RB18 or 35th overall, beersheet says RB16 4|04, I'm getting him in the fifth or sixth round.

dkj
Feb 18, 2009

That’s called best ball.

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

This is one of the best fantasy articles I’ve read all year:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rb-targets-and-legendary-scenarios

In this article series, Pat Kerrane outlines the statistical basis for what constitutes a ‘legendary season’ outcome for RBs.

He then runs through the ceiling and floor outcomes for all early round RBs, and assigns them a target/fade rating based on path to a legendary season/cost to draft. The earlier articles in the series are worth a read as well.

Kerrane is a really sharp dude.

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020

Quarterroys posted:

This is one of the best fantasy articles I’ve read all year:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rb-targets-and-legendary-scenarios

In this article series, Pat Kerrane outlines the statistical basis for what constitutes a ‘legendary season’ outcome for RBs.

He then runs through the ceiling and floor outcomes for all early round RBs, and assigns them a target/fade rating based on path to a legendary season/cost to draft. The earlier articles in the series are worth a read as well.

Kerrane is a really sharp dude.

Hi Pat Kerrane!

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

Whoreson Welles posted:

I don’t want to bash anyone who drafted him and I’ll preface this by saying I’ve come in last two years running in my keeper league but:

Can someone sell me on D’Andre Swift? I get he’s talented but aren’t the Lions in a real bad spot for RBs? He got taken pretty high in two of my leagues and I just can’t wrap my head around it.

I mainly see him highly ranked in PPR since he is projected to catch a lot of passes. Part of it is that there are something like 22 RBs that might get enough touches to be an RB1/2, and he is one of them. I don't value him as high as his ADP is so I never end up with him :shrug: .

Pain of Mind fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Sep 3, 2021

Fate Accomplice
Nov 30, 2006




dkj posted:

That’s called best ball.

see I thought best ball was just not managing start/sit decisions, but you still managed the roster.

that is...real dumb!

Quarterroys
Jul 1, 2008

CocoaNuts posted:

Hi Pat Kerrane!

Uhh, no?

Thread is talking about early round RBs, I shared a good article that makes a case for several of them based on some research and data, in particular D’andre Swift, currently being discussed.

Maybe I shouldn’t have bothered though?

AAAAA! Real Muenster
Jul 12, 2008

My QB is also named Bort

Quarterroys posted:

This is one of the best fantasy articles I’ve read all year:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rb-targets-and-legendary-scenarios

In this article series, Pat Kerrane outlines the statistical basis for what constitutes a ‘legendary season’ outcome for RBs.

He then runs through the ceiling and floor outcomes for all early round RBs, and assigns them a target/fade rating based on path to a legendary season/cost to draft. The earlier articles in the series are worth a read as well.

Kerrane is a really sharp dude.
This is good stuff, thank you for sharing it.

Tiptoes
Apr 30, 2006

You are my underwater, underwater friends!

CocoaNuts posted:

Are there more Austin Eckler and Joe Mixon skeptics or believers here? I have read/listened to a number of fantasy football "gurus" who are pushing both of those guys as league winners but I just can't get past my doubts. I think both underperform.
Austin Ekeler has a significantly improved o-line to run behind, a young QB stud to throw him the ball, and Alvin Kamara’s former OC to design plays for him. He is going to do great.

Joe Mixon has… well at least Ekeler is going to do great.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Quarterroys posted:

This is one of the best fantasy articles I’ve read all year:

https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/edge/article/numbers/early-round-rb-targets-and-legendary-scenarios

In this article series, Pat Kerrane outlines the statistical basis for what constitutes a ‘legendary season’ outcome for RBs.

He then runs through the ceiling and floor outcomes for all early round RBs, and assigns them a target/fade rating based on path to a legendary season/cost to draft. The earlier articles in the series are worth a read as well.

Kerrane is a really sharp dude.

This is an interesting article but I think is way way way overrating goal line carries and slapping fade grades on players because they're not CMC or Dalvin Cook or Kamara because they go in the first round (Aaron Jones, for example) because he just decided that someone else is suddenly taking goal line work.

Interesting concept but his methodology needs more nuance imo

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020

Quarterroys posted:

Uhh, no?

Thread is talking about early round RBs, I shared a good article that makes a case for several of them based on some research and data, in particular D’andre Swift, currently being discussed.

Maybe I shouldn’t have bothered though?

I was kidding.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

CocoaNuts posted:

Did you all know that Russell Wilson has never missed a game in his NFL career? I just bumped into that fact this morning and it elicited a "Holy loving poo poo!"

idk he seems to have taken the back half of the last two seasons off

kiimo
Jul 24, 2003

It's weird. He'll kill it again this season and then people will definitely create graphics that say did you know Russell Wilson has never received one MVP vote??? And people will say that's incredible. Again.

And maybe this time he won't immediately start being very average right after that graphic is flashed

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
Just trade him by week 9 and you are guaranteed to win that trade.

dkj
Feb 18, 2009

Poque posted:

Just trade him by week 9 and you are guaranteed to win that trade.

That will work perfect every season except the ones in which you draft him

Levin
Jun 28, 2005


dkj posted:

That’s called best ball.

Seems to be ranked at the same or higher in ECR and ADP on FantasyPros in a bunch of formats.

Fate Accomplice posted:

see I thought best ball was just not managing start/sit decisions, but you still managed the roster.

that is...real dumb!

I have to imagine there's leagues like that and I would love to play in such a format alongside the others I participate in. Unfortunately didn't think about it until too close to the season and couldn't whip up enough interest to get one rolling. It's definitely...different, but in terms of getting to scratch my itch to draft and think try out a format that requires slightly different strategies it's fun.

Levin fucked around with this message at 20:14 on Sep 3, 2021

Levin
Jun 28, 2005


edit: dumb, didn't need to post twice

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

CocoaNuts posted:

Did you all know that Russell Wilson has never missed a game in his NFL career? I just bumped into that fact this morning and it elicited a "Holy loving poo poo!"

You must be the guy in my league that drafted him in the first round as the first QB in a single QB league.

CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020

Pain of Mind posted:

You must be the guy in my league that drafted him in the first round as the first QB in a single QB league.

Hell nah. But if Wilson is still available in the sixth round, I'm all in!

freeman
Aug 14, 2018
My WRs (2 flex ppr 12 team): Amari Cooper, JuJu, Boyd, DeVonta, Callaway

Would you rather:

Trade Kittle + non-Cooper WR for a lowend WR1
Trade Hock + non-Cooper WR for a lowend WR2

Ended up price enforcing my way to both TEs and seems like a waste to have Hock on my bench for the 4-5 weeks until Kittle dies.

VietCampo
Aug 24, 2010
Someone dropped Curtis Samuel to pick up a kicker, is he worth dropping Waddle or Mooney for him in a 1 PPR league?

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Fate Accomplice posted:

see I thought best ball was just not managing start/sit decisions, but you still managed the roster.

that is...real dumb!

Strictly speaking, you're right, "best ball" means you have a roster, no sit/start, and the app picks your top scorers for the positions each week.

But, on top of that, you can do a draft-and-done league, which really only works with best ball. You need deeper benches than you'd typically have for a regular redraft non-best-ball league, and the whole affair has more luck involved because if you have 2 QBs and they both get injured mid-season, you've definitely lost. For that reason your draft choices change a lot; if you have the roster space, for example, you should draft a third QB, possibly the backup for one of your starters if he doesn't suck too bad.

The fun part of this is you can do like six of these leagues just by drafting pre-season and then it doesn't add a big load to your weekly fantasy football management schedule.

Pain of Mind
Jul 10, 2004
You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t

VietCampo posted:

Someone dropped Curtis Samuel to pick up a kicker, is he worth dropping Waddle or Mooney for him in a 1 PPR league?

I probably would. No idea which one though!

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CocoaNuts
Jun 12, 2020

VietCampo posted:

Someone dropped Curtis Samuel to pick up a kicker, is he worth dropping Waddle or Mooney for him in a 1 PPR league?

Fantasy Pros' experts, by a factor of 2 to 1, say Waddle is better than Mooney, so Mooney is the guy to drop.

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