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The AP article already talks about how audits are already going to be performed even without the letter, and it sounds good enough for me. I am skeptical of proprietary software but I really do not want to see a CyberNinjas style audit here in CA. If they are simply and earnestly asking for a careful audit then I'm grudgingly ok with that (although it feels unnecessary, I can see the temporary need to continue to validate the system). But if they want to just hand the ballots to idiots that want to find bamboo in the paper as evidence of ballot replacement or a hidden message that can only be revealed with UV lighting then it will further prove that you can be both a UC Berkeley professor and a complete idiot. Also, I stand by my assertion that being a statistician does not make you an expert in computer security. You don't simply need a high hacking stat or a skateboard and a raspberry pi. Maybe you can talk about the chance of hacking to be high enough to be an issue. But in all seriousness, I am less convinced of the letter's sincerity from his endorsement.
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Sep 3, 2021 07:22
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sb hermit posted:The AP article already talks about how audits are already going to be performed even without the letter, and it sounds good enough for me. https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/risk-limiting-audits That link also has an explanation on the difference between the normal 1% Manual Tally and the Risk-Limiting Audit. quote:1% Manual Tally: Elections officials conduct a public manual tally of 1% of all ballots tabulated on a voting system during an election, including vote-by-mail ballots. This is a public process of manually tallying votes in 1% of the precincts, selected at random by the elections official, and in one precinct for each race not included in the randomly selected precincts. This procedure is conducted during the official canvass to verify the accuracy of the automated count. In a regular election year, counties hand count tens of thousands of ballots as part of the 1% manual tally. This process does not provide statistical evidence that the machine tally found the true winner for each contest on the ballot. This process also does not describe what should be done if the results of the manual tally do not agree with the election results. (See, Elec. Code, § 15360). The letter proposes that for this special election, due to the voting machine software being leaked publicly online, that they do Risk-Limiting Audits in every county, especially since there's only two questions to check which are identical in every county, which reduces the amount of auditing needed to be done. It seems fine to me? Here's the result for the RLA from the 2020 election for El Dorado county local offices: https://www.edcgov.us/Government/Elections/Documents/RLA%20Tally%20Report.xl.pdf For the Los Rios Community College District Trustee Area 3 Governing Board Member election, out of 98,536 ballots cast, they audited a sample of 79 ballots to reach 95% confidence level, which is way less than 1% (~985 ballots); that race was split between 19.42%/22.51%/31.14% for each of the 3 candidates. I personally like the idea that you only continue auditing based off the likelihood that the vote is inaccurate, and if you have statistically sound method you can help defend against calls for spurious audits that waste a lot of time (which is what the letter talks about preventing as well). Though I'm also not going to assume the motives of those sending the letter; I'm sure at some level it's self-serving on getting more recognition or whatever to get more consulting gigs. Also out of my wheelhouse, I've just re-read this stuff and most of it I remember being talked about after 2016 and even before that. BeAuMaN fucked around with this message at 10:47 on Sep 3, 2021 |
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Sep 3, 2021 10:42
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FogHelmut posted:I'm just going to assume he's one of those "tax revenues go up when taxes go down" geniuses. No the politicians generally never believe that, it's just the line to get the rubes.
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Sep 3, 2021 20:39
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The fires are reminding me of "the End" by the Doors. "Waiting for the summer rain..."
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Sep 3, 2021 20:56
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The Bad Faith podcast had 3 of the recall candidates on, including David Moore: https://youtu.be/7S8tK0pbJMA
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Sep 3, 2021 21:10
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cool kapelovitz the green candidate wants to bail out the landlords
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Sep 3, 2021 21:24
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Free water from the sky would be cool
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Sep 3, 2021 21:27
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Keyser_Soze posted:Free water from the sky would be cool No sorry that belongs to the Resnicks.
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Sep 3, 2021 21:39
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droll posted:cool kapelovitz the green candidate wants to bail out the landlords It was striking to me how neither of the other candidates had even a rudimentary understanding of the pandemic. The Green Party guy actually starts leaning hard into the right-wing talking points that it can't be contained and public health measures create a police state. He stops himself halfway through a sentence about how maybe we'll all find out the pandemic isn't as bad as they're saying before remembering that hundreds of thousands of people have died. Anyways, I'll be speaking tomorrow and next Saturday on the developing crisis in the pandemic and how the CA elections are part of a broader political crisis: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/3817705999637641999 Also to embed the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7S8tK0pbJMA
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Sep 3, 2021 21:59
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Canasta_Nasty posted:It was striking to me how neither of the other candidates had even a rudimentary understanding of the pandemic. The Green Party guy actually starts leaning hard into the right-wing talking points that it can't be contained and public health measures create a police state. He stops himself halfway through a sentence about how maybe we'll all find out the pandemic isn't as bad as they're saying before remembering that hundreds of thousands of people have died.
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Sep 3, 2021 23:36
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droll posted:cool kapelovitz the green candidate wants to bail out the landlords my favorite part was where he heatedly started going on about how much he loves to go into the office ("safely"!) and everyone surely misses it as much as him
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Sep 3, 2021 23:47
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Canasta_Nasty posted:It was striking to me how neither of the other candidates had even a rudimentary understanding of the pandemic. The Green Party guy actually starts leaning hard into the right-wing talking points that it can't be contained and public health measures create a police state. He stops himself halfway through a sentence about how maybe we'll all find out the pandemic isn't as bad as they're saying before remembering that hundreds of thousands of people have died. You came across hella knowledgeable, and the way you address class struggle and world worker revolution (without saying revolution) sounds like it struck a chord with the DSA/social democrat host. Your gotowebinar link errors out for me, anyone else?
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Sep 4, 2021 00:01
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droll posted:cool kapelovitz the green candidate wants to bail out the landlords Copelovitz But seriously it's tragic how terrible the Greens are these days.
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Sep 4, 2021 00:02
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Canasta_Nasty posted:It was striking to me how neither of the other candidates had even a rudimentary understanding of the pandemic. The Green Party guy actually starts leaning hard into the right-wing talking points that it can't be contained and public health measures create a police state. He stops himself halfway through a sentence about how maybe we'll all find out the pandemic isn't as bad as they're saying before remembering that hundreds of thousands of people have died. Good answers, too bad you got stuck with walking stereotypes. In all seriousness, I hope you run for another office where you have a chance to win, after this.
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Sep 4, 2021 00:27
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droll posted:Your gotowebinar link errors out for me, anyone else? Trying to fix the issue, it seems to be more than just you.
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Sep 4, 2021 00:28
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Vox Nihili posted:Copelovitz They've always been terrible.
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Sep 4, 2021 05:23
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droll posted:cool kapelovitz the green candidate wants to bail out the landlords Can you dig it?
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Sep 4, 2021 06:16
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Canasta_Nasty posted:Trying to fix the issue, it seems to be more than just you. All fixed
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Sep 4, 2021 17:30
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:They've always been terrible.
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Sep 4, 2021 19:07
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https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-08-13/editorial-recall-the-governor-not-just-no-hell-no LA Times recommends voting no on the recall and voting Faulconer for question 2. They evaluated six of the seven front runners (Jenner did not respond for an interview) and Faulconer was seen as a moderate Republican that is more reasonable than most and worked well with Democrats. On the other hand, they were pretty critical of Paffrath: quote:He exudes enthusiasm and idealism, and may share some basic Democratic values with most Californians, but he’s not a serious candidate any more than Los Angeles billboard star Angelyne. The editorial was also critical of Paffrath's plans to enact massive tax cuts and forcing the homeless into shelters.
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Sep 5, 2021 17:13
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sb hermit posted:https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2021-08-13/editorial-recall-the-governor-not-just-no-hell-no I feel like we don't talk enough about how Jenner's campaign is openly and brazenly just a scam for money, she has done nothing to conceal this fact and will suffer no ill consequences over it.
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Sep 5, 2021 17:35
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Surely this endorsement will be the shot in the arm that gets Faulconer to start polling above *checks notes* 5%. If he can just climb another 20 or so points Elder might have to remember his name!DarklyDreaming posted:I feel like we don't talk enough about how Jenner's campaign is openly and brazenly just a scam for money, she has done nothing to conceal this fact and will suffer no ill consequences over it. Yeah our kleptocracy rules. Just float a trial balloon candidacy, if it takes off then hooray, you get to be an elected official. But if it fails? Well hooray anyways, because a bunch of rubes paid to increase your profile and/or market your latest book.
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Sep 5, 2021 18:31
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Well good thing all my poo poo talking to volunteers for the Gavin campaign will be correct. And not mean stuff but this iw what I was saying to them: Can I count on you to advocate for a massive increase of public housing to stop the homeless crisis? Not talking shelters so don't give me that platitude. Can I count on you to advocate for a massive increase of public housing funding to actually end our homeless crisis? Every day tens of thousands face a halved life expectancy from living on the street. Yes. Can I count on you to advocate for a massive increase of public housing funding to actually end our homeless crisis? Every day tens of thousands face a halved life expectancy from living on the street.
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Sep 5, 2021 18:36
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This recall is hilarious to me Out of all of the ostensibly "serious" Republican candidates(Caitlyn Jenner doesn't count here) that the GOP is trying to boost, the one who would actually win if the recall succeeds(which thankfully it's looking like it won't) is the IRL inspiration for Uncle Ruckus from The Boondocks
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Sep 5, 2021 18:42
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Trazz posted:the IRL inspiration for Uncle Ruckus from The Boondocks
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Sep 5, 2021 19:05
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FilthyImp posted:I heard this before but PLEASE tell me Aaron McGruder has a quote about watching Elder on KCAL 9 and going "What the fuuuuuck" McGruder has been poo poo-talking Elder for decades
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Sep 5, 2021 19:09
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Canasta_Nasty posted:All fixed In the panel you had mentioned that "electing a socialist won't bring socialism." I agree and understand what you mean by that, but if elected, how do you see your role in advancing socialism? You seem to adhere to the view that socialism will require a world wide strike of the proletariat, but how would a position as Governor of California work towards that?
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Sep 6, 2021 02:37
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:
California constitution prohibits public housing without a local referendum and good luck with that with all the NIMBY, its why there is lots of talk on "affordable housing" but never public housing as just like everything else in this state, the law is setup to "protect are propety values".
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Sep 6, 2021 03:58
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Celexi posted:California constitution prohibits public housing without a local referendum and good luck with that with all the NIMBY, its why there is lots of talk on "affordable housing" but never public housing as just like everything else in this state, the law is setup to "protect are propety values". We must re write the constitution from a Marxist perspective
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Sep 6, 2021 04:54
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:We must re write the constitution from a Marxist perspective The ca constitution needs to be thrown in the garbage and re-done, even a lightweight socialist one would be better than the current libertarian one
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Sep 6, 2021 07:14
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WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:We must re write the constitution from a Marxist perspective Marx dabbled in stocks so the California constitution is an NFT now, sorry.
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Sep 6, 2021 16:47
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If they redid the constitution today it would go to the highest bidder.
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Sep 6, 2021 17:00
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withak posted:If they redid the constitution today it would go to the highest bidder. The original constitution went to the highest bidders too.
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Sep 6, 2021 17:41
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eSporks posted:Just quoting so you see this. It's a good question and the heart of my response builds off of Lenin's work State and Revolution which I highly recommend. The government is not a neutral body that partially represents the capitalists and partially represents the workers. Rather it is an instrument of class rule that always seeks to defend the interests of the ruling class. This is one of the fundamental misconceptions of groups like the DSA and Socialist Alternative. They claim that if "progressives" just apply a bit of pressure the Government will stop serving the billionaires and become progressive. Instead what we see is that the further to the left American workers go, the farther to the right both the Democrats and Republicans go. So then why run? The socialist in strategy in elections is centered first and foremost on the broader class struggle. Elections are times when broad layers of workers and youth turn their attention to big political questions and it's a good time to reach them on critical issues. It provides a good opportunity to help people generalize beyond their immediate experience of the social crisis and their personal working conditions to the crisis of the whole political system. A good election campaign can bring together workers and youth who'd never talk to each other in normal circumstances. If elected, the thrust of the work remains in the exact same direction. Use the office as a partisan position for workers. Every serious step to provide health care, education, or fight the fires at the expense of corporate profits will be intensely resisted by the state legislature et al. The question of whether that resistance can be overcome is one of broader working class militancy, and simply having an official willing to speak the truth and bring all the lovely backroom deals out into the light is a big boon for that. There are surely some measures like pardons or executive orders where a governor can make a small impact but even the top state executive can only seriously tackle the bigger issues of inequality like homelessness as part of a mass movement against capitalism. For anyone that missed it here was my town hall meeting last Saturday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJTiQ-uFcdg The final meeting is this Saturday where I'll be digging more into the lie that the pandemic cannot be contained as well as the continuing political crisis.
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Sep 7, 2021 06:12
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Canasta_Nasty posted:Instead what we see is that the further to the left American workers go, the farther to the right both the Democrats and Republicans go. This…isn’t true? We don’t see this at all. There is very little to no evidence that there is some secret army of socialist voters out there just waiting for The True Leftist to run to mobilize them. There are plenty of people who don’t vote, sure, but they’re by no means ideological leftists who have strong feelings about redistribution or whatever.
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Sep 7, 2021 18:57
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Fill Baptismal posted:This…isn’t true? We don’t see this at all. There is very little to no evidence that there is some secret army of socialist voters out there just waiting for The True Leftist to run to mobilize them. There are plenty of people who don’t vote, sure, but they’re by no means ideological leftists who have strong feelings about redistribution or whatever. Change begins in your heart.
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Sep 7, 2021 19:04
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Conservatives are already shifting into "VOTER FRAUD!!1!" mode over the California recall, which is a good sign of how the numbers are shaking out. https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1435309784681508866
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Sep 7, 2021 19:43
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Trazz posted:This recall is hilarious to me We literally elected the Terminator last time this happened.
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Sep 7, 2021 19:56
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How did people view the terminator as governor? Goons are pretty reserved about their criticisms of schwarzenegger despite him being a republican, and that always caught me by surprise. I was pretty young when he was in office so I don't really recall much there.
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Sep 7, 2021 20:24
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Jaxyon posted:We literally elected the Terminator last time this happened. Gee I wonder if anything has changed between last time and this time, like, I dunno, the complete collapse of conservative credibility in California
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Sep 7, 2021 20:30
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