|
Rescue Toaster posted:The impression I've gotten would be that you're reasonably likely to catch Delta even though you're vaccinated if you're surrounded by unvaccinated people constantly. Especially if they're not masking consistently. Reasonably likely being maybe 30-50% chance? Considering if you were unvaccinated I'd say it's virtually guaranteed. Meaning, lifetime? If you're being exposed continuously I'd consider that more of a per-month likelihood, if not per-week.
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2021 23:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 02:15 |
|
|
Delta isn’t going to be around for the rest of your life. Something will outcompete it.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2021 23:35
|
|
|
Fuschia tude posted:Meaning, lifetime? If you're being exposed continuously I'd consider that more of a per-month likelihood, if not per-week. Yeah giving a percentage was dumb. I guess the way to look at it is based on past waves you'll probably have at least one serious wave go through the school per semester, with potential for more with future variants. I guess my short answer would be (keeping in mind I'm just some fairly paranoid guy on the internet) if you're in repeated close contact with unvaccinated people you should be prepared to catch it. Sterilizing immunity is just not realistic with the current vaccines against delta and whatever the next variant is. Maybe eventually when we get a booster that covers the major mutations better. Until then, if you or a family member are at high risk for some reason, the vaccines should be your backup to masks & distancing, not your primary defense.
|
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2021 23:48
|
|
|
QuarkJets posted:For "serious" cases the It doesn't matter how many thousands of people you're looking at, what matters is how many severe cases you end up having to compare across vax time cohorts. Israel only had only 348 severe cases total across all age groups in the study period, and only 21 of those were <60. You can see from their <60 severe case figure (with a better y-axis in the fda slides) that the rate of infection in the sample was nearly double for both 40-49 and 50-59 folks vaxxed in January vs April-May, and ~50% higher for 40-49 folks vaxxed in Feb v Apr/May.  I would personally consider even a 50% increase in severe case rates to be clinically significant, considering that a vaxxed Delta breakthrough is already more likely to result in hospitalization or death than influenza for anyone over ~40 and a 50%+ boost v severe disease is roughly on par with flu shots. If the sample size is too small to detect a 50% increase in case rates, that's severely underpowered. They might have been slightly better off using splines rather than collapsing vax date into categories, but 21 severe cases is still far to few for assessing a trend over time, especially when you need to adjust for potential confounders. I am somewhat concerned about the possibility of confounding from risk factors like immune status, though. It doesn't seem to be mentioned in the preprint, and I'm not sure if Israel had a policy of vaxxing high-risk <60 folks first (the paper only mentions age-based vaccination schedules). They adjust for age, gender, and other demographics, but don't mention any adjustments for risk factors. E: Clarified "significant" as "clinically significant" because statistics has terrible terminology. Stickman fucked around with this message at 00:07 on Sep 19, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 18, 2021 23:49
|
|
|
Probably sux to be in the Delta airlines marketing team rn
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 00:00
|
|
|
Rescue Toaster posted:The impression I've gotten would be that you're reasonably likely to catch Delta even though you're vaccinated if you're surrounded by unvaccinated people constantly. Especially if they're not masking consistently. Reasonably likely being maybe 30-50% chance? Considering if you were unvaccinated I'd say it's virtually guaranteed. So yeah delta isn't fuckin around.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 00:20
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:Delta isn’t going to be around for the rest of your life. I'm sure whatever pandemic our climate change hellscape spits out after COVID will leave the long covid survivors alone.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 00:44
|
|
|
What the gently caress https://twitter.com/AnthonyMKreis/status/1438672623551094784?s=19 quote:The governor has made references to an AIDS vaccine on at least two other occasions. On Sept. 4, 2020, Kemp held a press conference ahead of Labor Day weekend to discuss the spread of COVID-19, and he mentioned why he didn’t believe a statewide mask mandate would work.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:01
|
|
|
Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:What the gently caress Jesus H. loving Christ. I'm not sure if it feels like impeachment or civil commitment feel like a more appropriate response to that.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:10
|
|
|
Stickman posted:It doesn't matter how many thousands of people you're looking at, what matters is how many severe cases you end up having to compare across vax time cohorts. Israel only had only 348 severe cases total across all age groups in the study period, and only 21 of those were <60. You can see from their <60 severe case figure (with a better y-axis in the fda slides) that the rate of infection in the sample was nearly double for both 40-49 and 50-59 folks vaxxed in January vs April-May, and ~50% higher for 40-49 folks vaxxed in Feb v Apr/May. With error bars like those I don't think that you can make any serious conclusions I am talking about this Israeli data, which was pulled from the MOH dashboard and contains over 400 severe cases in the 12-60 age group alone. Granted, this is not a peer reviewed article, but since it only looks at cases that are severe or worse (e.g. hospitalizations) I think that the conclusions are likely credible QuarkJets fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Sep 19, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:21
|
|
|
Boy, mask discipline is dropping hard in London from what I saw in the last week when going to work. In more than one case I was the only person with a mask on a near full bus and it was barely 50:50 on the tube, which was basically a germ bazooka filled with all sorts of nasty poo poo way before covid. Not to be all  but honestly was wishing for masks continued to be a thing at least for a while.Dumb idiots are still having anti mask/vaxx rallies like dude we're literally back to 2019 in terms of mandates, the gently caress you're protesting??
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:25
|
|
|
Galewolf posted:Boy, mask discipline is dropping hard in London from what I saw in the last week when going to work. Welcome to America...
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:38
|
|
|
Galewolf posted:Boy, mask discipline is dropping hard in London from what I saw in the last week when going to work. Yeah I've had to travel via London a couple of times recently and that was pretty much my experience as well. In overground stations, I'd say about 10% of people wearing masks. On overground trains, a bit better, maybe 20%. Then yeah about 50% on the tube. Next time I have to travel via London I'll just get a black cab instead!
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:39
|
|
|
QuarkJets posted:With error bars like those I don't think that you can make any serious conclusions Okay, that makes more sense. Not being able to make conclusions about waning immunity in <60 was exactly my point - the waning immunity pre-print article was presumably limited to data available at submission, so it's just Delta cases through July 31st. The data you linked shows that there's more available now that Israel's been failing to contain Delta, so hopefully they'll release updated analyses soon. The analysis in the linked post needs a mountain of salt, though, because it doesn't have the ability to adjust for anything. The published booster analysis adjusts for finer age categories, demographics, date of second dose, and week of positive test (to account for massive variation in infection risk over the study). E: It is frustrating that PH departments that do these sorts of analyses don't update them regularly and make the results publicly available. Academic "one-and-done" doesn't work here. See: PHE citing a preprint from May for VE vs Delta with estimates based on very small sample sizes that clearly didn't match the estimates used in the derived analysis. Stickman fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Sep 19, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:56
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Probably sux to be in the Delta airlines marketing team rn They can go cry with the Corona people
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 01:58
|
|
|
Apparently there’s a finger prick test in development that would tell if someone needs a booster shot.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:04
|
|
|
CaptainSarcastic posted:Jesus H. loving Christ. I'm not sure if it feels like impeachment or civil commitment feel like a more appropriate response to that. I'm envisioning a disgruntled speechwriter.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:06
|
|
|
gay picnic defence posted:Apparently there’s a finger prick test in development that would tell if someone needs a booster shot. Nice try, but they won’t fall for that one again, Miss Holmes.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:12
|
|
|
Gordon Shumway posted:Welcome to America... You know what, back in late July I was suprised by the mask discipline in NYC despite being full openerup much earlier than plague island. New Orleans was wild, though, zero fucks were given even after they re-instated the indoor mask ~*mandate*~ overnight.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:20
|
|
|
Pseudohog posted:Yeah I've had to travel via London a couple of times recently and that was pretty much my experience as well. In overground stations, I'd say about 10% of people wearing masks. On overground trains, a bit better, maybe 20%. Then yeah about 50% on the tube. Next time I have to travel via London I'll just get a black cab instead! In a city where Tfl plasters every station with "please don't physically assault our staff :/" posters, who is going to enforce anything at this point? I mean, I literally post this from a concert hall with 6k people breathing each others faces so I guess it's time for Jesus to take the wheel
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:24
|
|
|
quote:A Sydney man who spent 399 days in hospital recovering from COVID-19 has urged the community to get vaccinated, saying the virus is real. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-18/sydney-man-spent-399-days-at-westmead-hospital-with-covid-19/100473324
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:34
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 02:47
|
|
|
Galewolf posted:Dumb idiots are still having anti mask/vaxx rallies like dude we're literally back to 2019 in terms of mandates, the gently caress you're protesting?? Really? The Brexit country? The guys going back to Imperial measures? I cannot believe
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:00
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:Really? The Brexit country? The guys going back to Imperial measures? Wait what? They're not doing metric anymore or shifting away from metric I guess?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:03
|
|
|
Zil posted:Wait what? They're not doing metric anymore or shifting away from metric I guess? https://news.yahoo.com/britain-may-revert-back-imperial-070152287.html?_guc_consent_skip=1631951697 Britain may revert to the imperial system as part of its plans to 'capitalize on new Brexit freedoms'
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:06
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://news.yahoo.com/britain-may-revert-back-imperial-070152287.html?_guc_consent_skip=1631951697 What a bunch of idiots. Just distracting their base with the most mundane poo poo to ignore all the other failings of the government.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:09
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://news.yahoo.com/britain-may-revert-back-imperial-070152287.html?_guc_consent_skip=1631951697 Isn't the economy in the shitter? And now they want to spend hundreds of millions changing signs/meters and reworking all of their software? E: Ah, it's just weight in shops.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:13
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://news.yahoo.com/britain-may-revert-back-imperial-070152287.html?_guc_consent_skip=1631951697 Yay this means I get to be pedantic and call it avoidupois.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 03:56
|
|
|
You're posting to the wrong doomsday thread, you can tell the difference because the lol trump thread smells like piss and old tartar sauce whereas this thread smells like virus-laden plumes still kind of relevant though what with trump supporters being the leading cause of the pandemic at this point
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 05:18
|
|
|
LOL yeah no some of us in AZ see the fuckers as grifters and anyone who "just wants to ask questions" as idiots.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 05:44
|
|
|
Stickman posted:Isn't the economy in the shitter? And now they want to spend hundreds of millions changing signs/meters and reworking all of their software? This reminds me of the great brains at work in Germany. Last year, they decided it's a good idea to lower VAT as an incentive for people to not hoard their money in fear of Corona/unemployment etc. and go out and buy stuff to kickstart the economy after the first lockdown. It also was mandated with like a four weeks window of implementation, so every single company or freelancer or restaurant or whatever had to update their systems, only to go back to regular VAT after december...so basically two huge changes in the system within nine months. When the change went active, even the tax people didn't really know how to work with that change. Thing was: the only companies to actually gave this VAT reduction to the customers where the big ones, who could pressure their suppliers into eating up the 3%. The smaller companies (who were in deep trouble) mostly just pocketed the extra money (and are still struggling). I'm not really complaining, as I had to fiddle around with a LOT of ERP-Systems last year, but it felt like dirty money, because nothing was gained from that, apart from me writing an invoice. Of course it didn't really kickstart the economy...or let's say, many people now might have a new SmartTV, or coffee machine, or whatever, but apparently the cost for adjusting the VAT all over the country on such a short term mostly eat up the benefits for the economy. Bright minds at work.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 07:17
|
|
|
Comfy Fleece Sweater posted:https://news.yahoo.com/britain-may-revert-back-imperial-070152287.html?_guc_consent_skip=1631951697 Looking forward to Bojo announcing with a smirk to the rapturous applause of the press that the new unit for measuring antibody titre will be the humor
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 09:35
|
|
|
My husband, my unvaccinated toddler and I will be traveling to the US for the first time in almost two years next month. I talked my septuagenarian parents into lying to get their booster shots and they actually did it, despite being pathologically honest people. It makes me feel better about getting off an international flight and immediately hugging them and staying with them. Getting real nervous about hospital availability in case something terrible happens while we're abroad. Luckily we'll be mostly in blue states but we will be a few days in Ohio and their situation doesn't look great. Covid sucks.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 09:40
|
|
|
boquiabierta posted:My husband, an unvaccinated toddler I had to reread your post a couple of times because my brain insisted you were going to post snark  Maybe this is a good time to try out lots of expensive travel amenities that give you more space from other people. Good luck for your travels!
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 10:01
|
|
|
If someone goes to the hospital to get monoclonal antibodies, does that count as a hospitalization/severe case?
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 15:22
|
|
|
The Modern Leper posted:If someone goes to the hospital to get monoclonal antibodies, does that count as a hospitalization/severe case? I hope not, since the mabs are supposed to keep people from being hospitalized in the first place.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 15:26
|
|
|
boquiabierta posted:My husband, my unvaccinated toddler and I will be traveling to the US for the first time in almost two years next month. I talked my septuagenarian parents into lying to get their booster shots and they actually did it, despite being pathologically honest people. It makes me feel better about getting off an international flight and immediately hugging them and staying with them. may the odds be ever in your favor
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 16:57
|
|
|
Edit: drat it wrong thread.
wilderthanmild fucked around with this message at 17:46 on Sep 19, 2021 |
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 17:43
|
|
|
Spermanent Record posted:Under what circumstances would you refuse to go to work? It's a problem that solves itself eventually. 1) Kid gets covid from one of the many unvaccinated snotlings 2) Kid infects unvaccinated parents 3) Parents die 4) Kid is either sent to family out of school district or put up for adoption 5) 
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 18:15
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 25, 2024 02:15 |
|
|
I really hate how maddeningly unclear the data is with this thing. CDC saying Pfizer is 77% effective after 120 days makes me not want to go outside again ever, but then it also says most of the hospitalized people in that cohort are still olds. I know there's a risk no matter what but if it's as low as 77% then gently caress I guess I'm locking down again.
|
|
#
?
Sep 19, 2021 20:03
|
|
