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gop.txtquote:President Joe Biden jumped into the district’s special election with an eleventh-hour endorsement of Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo on Monday. Former President Donald Trump already had backed Republican Mike Carey, a coal lobbyist.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:03
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Thom12255 posted:Thats insane, how are they keeping the bill price at $1.8T with retroactive salt? Retroactive SALT is three times bigger than climate spending, that’s how.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:04
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Grouchio posted:What To be fair, in 2017 there were I think less than 100k early voters but the total turnout was still more than 2.5 million. Laws have made it so much easier to vote early since then a staggering number like that is to be expected. That said, predictions I've see say that the early vote might be 2 to 1 or better Dems, and with a million early votes in the bank that's a real good number. Total turnout prediction is just over 3 million, and Youngkin will struggle to make up that margin with a full third off the board
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Nov 2, 2021 20:06
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Grouchio posted:What Shammypants posted:I mean 2017 is pre-covid, so I mean early voting wasn't massive Prior to 2020 it was only available for a week before the election and you needed a "legitimate excuse". It's a massive increase but it's not because people are EXTRA PUMPED this time, it's cause it was basically inaccessible previously
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Nov 2, 2021 20:07
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Thom12255 posted:Thats insane, how are they keeping the bill price at $1.8T with retroactive salt? It looks like they're extending the SALT cap through 2031 to do a little CBO scoring magic, I'm sure they'll end up passing something in reconciliation next year to outright repeal it to keep the donors happy Still though, this is more spending for rich people than climate spending, or the CTC expansion or anything else. I guess Willa really was right
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Nov 2, 2021 20:10
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The Rx deal is worse than the original House version, but weirdly is a lot better than the initial compromise they were floating a month ago. https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1455607128308256773 Still unclear what actual immigration changes can make it into the bill. They might be able to basically do a version of the DREAM act, but everything involving changing the qualifications for the 1986 immigration reform to make new people eligible can't be passed through reconciliation. So, I'm not sure what Pelosi is optimistic about. https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1455606002267660291 The SALT people and the deficit people aren't 100% the same, but it is still hilarious that they are going to raise the SALT cap for 5 years by using budgetary gimmickery to count "savings" from when the cap was going to expire in 2025 to fund it without removing anything else or raising taxes. Nobody who complained about budget gimmickery before will complain about it, either. The SALT cap raise also only applies to people making less than $400k per year, so you don't have 70% of the benefit going to people making $500k and above. But, it's not like people making $90k who own an expensive house in Boston are impoverished. Nothing got cut in exchange for it and they put in an income cap, so it is probably the best version of a dumb policy. Schumer says they are looking for an initial vote by November 15th (this has probably doomed the bill given the track record of announcing deadlines related to votes on this). Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:16
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I feel like Sinema is doing a lot of heavy lifting with "protect innovation" in prescription pricing.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:17
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camoseven posted:Prior to 2020 it was only available for a week before the election and you needed a "legitimate excuse". It's a massive increase but it's not because people are EXTRA PUMPED this time, it's cause it was basically inaccessible previously that said, turnout as a whole appears to be very high, even outside early voting
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Nov 2, 2021 20:18
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Today is Election Day here in Seattle, and across WA! Every election here is purely vote-by-mail, so we should start seeing results coming in fairly quickly at first then tailing off. The hot contests this year: MAYOR OF SEATTLE! We have Bruce Harrell vs Lorena Gonzalez. We want Lorena to win, but the latest polling looked pretty grim. Harrell sucks but not as much as current mayor Jenny "I Promise Not To Gas You [Because We Ran Out After Gassing You So Much]" Durkan and previous mayor Ed "I raped my adopted gay son and resigned in disgrace" Murray. Follow the results here! https://www.king5.com/elections
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Nov 2, 2021 20:19
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Just 34 NYPD Went On Unpaid Leave Rather Than Comply With Vaccine Mandate https://www.thedailybeast.com/only-34-cops-sent-home-without-pay-for-flouting-vax-mandate-nypd-says So much for the 10,000 threatened by the Union. "On Thursday the union representing 50,000 current and former New York City Police Dept. officers claimed Mayor de Blasio’s vaccine mandate would force “10,000” officers off the streets."
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Nov 2, 2021 20:22
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Mind_Taker posted:Retroactive SALT is three times bigger than climate spending, that’s how. Where are you getting this? Climate spending is ~$565 billion in the recon bill (plus an additional $150 billion in the bipartisan bill for a total of $715 billion) The SALT plan is ~$115 billion. rscott posted:It looks like they're extending the SALT cap through 2031 to do a little CBO scoring magic, I'm sure they'll end up passing something in reconciliation next year to outright repeal it to keep the donors happy It was already set to expire automatically in 2025. Because this version has an income cap and only lasts 5 years, the gimmick they are doing is to count the year after 2025 when the SALT could would have been repealed entirely as "savings based on current law." This version is about 30% the cost of a complete cap removal, so it is "less spending compared to current law" because the new cap will be in place in 2025 instead of a completely uncapped version. They are basically removing the cap from "total amount you can deduct," but implementing a cap on eligibility based on income. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:27
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VideoGameVet posted:Just 34 NYPD Went On Unpaid Leave Rather Than Comply With Vaccine Mandate  When push comes to shove the Pigs are cowards: news at 11 It's almost like fascist organizations are full of bullies and cowards or something 
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Nov 2, 2021 20:30
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These compromises are acceptable and there's still a ton of good that will happen with the 3.5 trillion. Let's get BBB signed off on!
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Nov 2, 2021 20:31
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Kirios posted:These compromises are acceptable and there's still a ton of good that will happen with the 3.5 trillion. Let's get BBB signed off on! What is left to do now? Is the senate coming up for a vote?
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Nov 2, 2021 20:35
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Thom12255 posted:https://twitter.com/RepJoshG/status/1455590875116023815 Lmao, called it. Of course it'll be in the final bill, as has been rumored for days and only denied by Leon (who also once swore that 12 weeks of paid family leave would be in the final bill). So will (continued & enhanced) massive government subsidies to private insurers, because donors' wishes count for more than voters'. The drug-price controls are a joke, proven by Menendez's & Gottheimer's stamps of approval. Can't wait to see Dems run next year on "you'll only go bankrupt if you don't have diabetes or the forms of cancer most expensive to treat." vvv That's even funnier, if they announced this lovely deal before locking in a win. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:35
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Willa Rogers posted:Lmao, called it. Actually Menendez isn't officially on board https://twitter.com/john_wilkerson/status/1455616982733279251
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Nov 2, 2021 20:37
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Furnaceface posted:Just how many things do you guys vote for during these elections? Does it vary by state? I voted for about a third of the city council and half the school board in an election small enough that there were no party affiliations. There were no larger state candidates or issues on the ballot. Turnout for that sort of election is typically around 20% or lower so my vote has noticeable weight.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:38
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Willa Rogers posted:Lmao, called it. We were never going to get something good like help with keppra or insulin injectors without the owners clawing a share of their handouts back. Hopefully Medicare having the ability to negotiate prices will have a savings effect downstream, but who knows any more. I wouldn't put it past Pharma interests to jack up prices for non-Medicare plans and run media blitzes against the democrats for it.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:42
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Willa Rogers posted:Lmao, called it. I've been posting about the compromise plan for weeks. I even said last week that it will probably be in there because they can use budgetary gimmicks to not cut anything else in exchange for it. You're having a weird meltdown over this when you don't seem to know what it is. The SALT proposal is only 25% as large as an actual cap repeal because it has an income cap - it's not the return to the pre-2017 standard you're thinking of. 70% of the benefit of the original uncapped SALT deduction went to people making $500k or more, but this one has an income cap that requires you to make less than $400k. The Rx exclusion exemption is for biologics. The Rx reform is actually the literal opposite of what you said - the primary benefit goes to the people with the most expensive forms of cancer to treat. The people who need orphan Rx or mid-priced Rx in their exclusivity period/biologics are the people who get screwed in this version relative to the original H.R. 3 plan. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:47
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Who's melting down? Once again, my predictions were validated, while yours now read like outdated press releases issued by the administration. Let's see how your  explanations roll next year at the polls. 
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Nov 2, 2021 20:50
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:
Is there a place to easily examine the different texts of the provisions floated so far? I didn't look at the fine details of the previous tries, because it was all still in flux. It looks like the current draft kills some provisions that would give TPS recipients a route to adjust? But I don't see if the registry stuff differs from what the parliamentarian shot down. This bill seems to tie all the fees from Registry cases directly to the Treasury, instead of going to USCIS. I wonder if that is different?
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Nov 2, 2021 20:51
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HonorableTB posted:Today is Election Day here in Seattle, and across WA! Every election here is purely vote-by-mail, so we should start seeing results coming in fairly quickly at first then tailing off. Harrell is going to win after he came out for sweeping the homeless camps. Half the parks in Seattle are filled with homeless camps and it seems to be a pretty important single voter issue.
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Nov 2, 2021 20:54
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https://mobile.twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1455622633077149696 A very good point by Bitecofer. I don't know how you fight it though. I guess you just have t stick to your guns and not be scared? Eric Cantonese fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 20:57
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Willa Rogers posted:Once again, my predictions were validated. You literally described the opposite of the Rx drug pricing plan's impact. It's people on mid-tier Rx, orphan diseases, and newer biologics who are going to benefit the least. Generally, when you describe something that is the exact opposite of what happened, it is not accurate to describe that as validated. You also don't seem to realize that the SALT change you were predicting didn't actually happen and think that the version that did happen is 400% larger than it actually is and doesn't have an income cap. Willa Rogers posted:Let's see how your This is your other weird thing where you think accurately describing public policy has something to do with polls and you dodge the fact that you don't actually understand what you were talking about, you were giving bad info to other posters, and then try to excuse yourself from not knowing by arguing about election results and doing team sports mentality drive-bys. Just accurately describe the thing and don't do weird meltdowns. You can like or hate the thing, you can think it will impact election results or not, or you can think that it will impact the polls or not. But, you just need to accurately say what it is. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:00
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We don't know "what it is" because it's yet to be passed, but your rosy predictions about how paid leave would stay at 12 weeks & the SALT restoration was DOA were not very accurate. I do hope you were wrong about the IRS reporting requirement when you said that was DOA, too.  Also, can the "meltdown" bullshit. Just because I correctly predicted how the rec bill is shaking out doesn't mean that I need to be 5150'd.
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Nov 2, 2021 21:05
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Where are you getting this? https://twitter.com/DanRiffle/status/1455625031577391112?t=OmLDJhqFY_hNBoT77IP8xw&s=19
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Nov 2, 2021 21:08
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/\/\/\/\/\ It seems, based on what LT2012 is saying, that those figures are including uncapped SALT deductions for people making >$400,000, which in the latest proposal seems to have been changed, leading to a much smaller (~30%) budgetary impact.Willa Rogers posted:Who's melting down? Once again, my predictions were validated, while yours now read like outdated press releases issued by the administration. Willa Rogers posted:We don't know "what it is" because it's yet to be passed, but your rosy predictions about how paid leave would stay at 12 weeks & the SALT restoration was DOA were not very accurate. "The results have unequivocally proven me correct -> really we don't know anything because nothing has passed." Whiplash! Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:08
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:I've been posting about the compromise plan for weeks. I even said last week that it will probably be in there because they can use budgetary gimmicks to not cut anything else in exchange for it. Where are you seeing this reported? Everywhere I've seen is still light on the details because its an ongoing negotiation but still suggests its a full repeal of the cap, not an income limited repeal
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Nov 2, 2021 21:11
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rscott posted:Where are you getting $115 billion from? The CFRB says $475 That estimate is full repeal with no income cap. The draft version that the Senate Budget committee released has an income cap of $400,000. Twitter and The Hill say no decision has been made, though. So, they might not use the Senate Budget Committee draft. quote:House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal (D-Mass.) told reporters Tuesday that discussions on the SALT deduction cap are ongoing. He said the details of a deal depend in large part on Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.). Twitter and NBC say no decision has been made, though. So, they might not use the Senate Budget Committee draft and instead do the other compromise they were floating last week or a full reversion through 2025. If they do actually fully repeal it with no income cap, then that figure is correct and they will also need to raise more revenue to pay for it because the budget gimmicks can only cover a maximum of about $400 billion. It would still be less than the climate spending in the bill, though. Edit: Actually, since the current revenue projections are about $230 billion over the spending in the bill, they could use budget gimmickery + some of the gap there to cover a full repeal without having to raise new revenue. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:15
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Mellow Seas posted:"The results have unequivocally proven me correct -> really we don't know anything because nothing has passed." Whiplash! There's a difference between predicting something will be in the bill & the details on what the bill turns out to be in the end. E.g.: Saying SALT restoration is dead for good, as we were told a week ago, or that 12 weeks of paid family leave isn't, as we were told a couple months ago. eta: I'm happy to pull the receipts on these.
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Nov 2, 2021 21:16
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Eric Cantonese posted:https://mobile.twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1455622633077149696 “That’s dumb, I’m not going to address something that dumb.” Answer the questions you wish they’d asked. Bully the press. Refuse the cede territory. Never apologize. Act like a leader, show clear priorities and sense of purpose. “Critical race theory is just what they’re calling [least popular Republican policy right now]” then refuse to talk about it more. selec fucked around with this message at 21:22 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:19
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455625211362095111?s=20 Still a coin toss; no longer an assured GOP victoire
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Nov 2, 2021 21:20
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Weird Thing on Twitter, noted neoliberal piece of poo poo Larry Summers expressing concern about the bill's upper-income tax cuts:  That's from Sunday so it might not reflect the latest changes. Definitely interested in seeing some more documentation of the latest, income-capped draft vs. previous drafts, and which Senators are expressing support for the more modest, less expensive partial SALT cap repeal. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Nov 2, 2021 |
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Nov 2, 2021 21:21
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:That estimate is full repeal with no income cap. Can you actually link to what you're quoting?
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Nov 2, 2021 21:25
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rscott posted:https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1455591829198577668?t=c5qdZaXvUNcFjGTt-dH33w&s=19 Isn't Halloween over? What's with the M. Bison costume?
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Nov 2, 2021 21:25
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Any amount of SALT cap repeal is lunatic poo poo
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Nov 2, 2021 21:26
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Tayter Swift posted:Isn't Halloween over? What's with the M. Bison costume? It's Tuesday
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Nov 2, 2021 21:27
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Tayter Swift posted:Isn't Halloween over? What's with the M. Bison costume? He created a black and brown power group in the 70's, and the beret was a symbol of such at the time.
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Nov 2, 2021 21:30
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RBA Starblade posted:It's Tuesday  He's dressed like a character in a Cohen Brothers film.
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Nov 2, 2021 21:31
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Tayter Swift posted:Isn't Halloween over? What's with the M. Bison costume? Oh it's way crazier than you know! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curtis_Sliwa#Guardian_Angels Wikipedia posted:In May 1977, Sliwa created the "Magnificent 13", a group dedicated to combating violence and crime on the New York City Subway.[9] At the time, the city was experiencing a crime wave.[10] The Magnificent 13 grew and was renamed the Guardian Angels in 1979. The group's actions drew strong reactions, both positive and negative.[11] Membership of the Guardian Angels showed 80 percent of them were either black or Hispanic in ethnic origin.[7] Unarmed, the group required training in karate and fulfillment of legal requirements for citizens' arrest for all members before they were to be deployed.[12] Sliwa's red beret is a component of the Guardian Angels' uniform.[13][14] tl;dr he's a famous beret-wearing NYC vigilante from the 70s.
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Nov 2, 2021 21:31
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