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TulliusCicero posted:I think this is yet another Clintonite fumble at the In-zone than a Thanks Obama tbh Republicans won the Governorship by 17 points right after Obama won and had an approval in mid 50's. T-Mac originally won his first election for Governor right before the 2014 midterms that were horrible for Dems. Youngkin is going to win by about 1.5%. Part of it is that off-year Gubernatorial elections aren't predictive of national elections and the other part is that state-level politics aren't necessary indicative of the state's federal politics. Otherwise, the Republicans sweeping the Governorships of Vermont and Massachusetts would be indicative of big trouble for Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden. Or Beshear over-performing by 20+ points in KY would be indicative of McConnell getting blown out. If T-Mac won, then it wouldn't mean Dems weren't in trouble in 2022. It also doesn't mean that VA is going Republican in 2024 or that any of VA's seats (except for the one competitive one in NoVa) are likely to see huge swings.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:11
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Reps were motivated, Dems were not. I am very depressed.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:12
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TulliusCicero posted:^ Millenials would have to loving get off their asses and vote first 
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Nov 3, 2021 02:12
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Twelve by Pies posted:Nah, in the last couple of weeks McAuliffe was running ads of Obama saying "Please go vote for my friend Terry McAuliffe." I guess you could argue it happened too late or something but they definitely tried to use Obama as an attempt to drum up support and it very clearly didn't work. Considering all the labor news and stuff going on, it seems like a bad move to get endorsements from a guy whose latest political act was breaking a strike.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:12
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Sanguinia posted:R's are taking the House, Lt. Gov and Sec of State too. Super fine. Hope you're really enjoying Virginia's last election. People claimed Trump would round up minorities and put them in camps in 2016, but that was only true for the camps that were already operational under Obama and didn't change under Biden. Hmm, wonder if that had anything to do with this?
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Nov 3, 2021 02:13
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Raenir Salazar posted:Dems in VA had been delivering an overwhelmingly progressive agenda compared to the national average for years and all progress it seems like stops tonight, if not heavily reversed. VA was *not* the state where this argument made any sense; they governed as hard to the left wildly beyond expectations; you should be more concerned that perhaps Americans at large might be more conservative than you think regardless of a poor performance at the top of the ticket. I don't know that this is really true. They just barely legalized weed, have been dragging teachers for the last few years by not giving them pay raises, and can barely keep the public transit/roads functioning at a time when the population is absolutely loving booming down here with all the tech expansion. It kinda seems like they've been loving it up and half-committing for years now and are being dragged kicking and screaming into doing the necessary things when it can't be avoided anymore like the rest of the country.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:14
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Youth Decay posted:I know you're excited to watch my state go to hell but could you be a bit less obvious about it? Yeah I agree it sucks that a conservative won in Virginia, but let's face it, Blanding never had a chance
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Nov 3, 2021 02:15
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Gumball Gumption posted:Also I've got to be honest this doomer poo poo about the election is depressing. The Democrats lost, they'll lose again, that's politics. Work hard and win the next one. A lose should be used as motivation to work harder and change your process. Remember the arc of history bends towards progress. It doesn't. It is BENT towards progress. Waiting for it to happen as if it some immutable law of nature is insane.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:15
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TulliusCicero posted:^ Really any the three West Coast states are pretty great to live in. I feel bad for goons who are stuck in lovely situations with lovely leaders.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:16
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Bellmaker posted:I can imagine Obama ads having the opposite effect, given Republican turnout seems to be through the roof. Considering that Obama specifically mentioned "a woman's right to choose" and Roe v Wade is going to be overturned soon, you could be right. Since nobody's sure if it'll be a wide "all abortion is banned" ruling or a narrow "states get to make the decision" ruling then ensuring someone is in the governor's seat who will be sure to ban it makes sure the goal is achieved either way.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:16
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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1455704075773820929 "Abortions for some, miniature American flags for others."
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Nov 3, 2021 02:17
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TulliusCicero posted:^ What do you think of New York? Although, you really need to live in the NYC area for the full effect. And we're still full of finance people.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:17
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1455704075773820929 Racists also don't want to get sick and die
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Nov 3, 2021 02:19
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I feel bad for Bill Kristol, whose campaigning on behalf of McAufille didn't move any needles.  Good Soldier Svejk posted:I don't know that this is really true. They just barely legalized weed, have been dragging teachers for the last few years by not giving them pay raises, and can barely keep the public transit/roads functioning at a time when the population is absolutely loving booming down here with all the tech expansion. It kinda seems like they've been loving it up and half-committing for years now and are being dragged kicking and screaming into doing the necessary things when it can't be avoided anymore like the rest of the country. tbf, there was also the vote restoration for former felons, but that was likely more for political expediency than for restorative justice.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:19
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TheAgent posted:lol there would be no place safe on earth if America entered another Civil War, don't even give it any thought Too be clear, I don't think the country is headed for outright civil war, but I do see Blue states and red ststes becoming increasingly divided and just drifting away policy wise on their own. In that case my wife and I are simply looking to live in a state less lovely than Michigan should it turn red, and I was hoping for suggestions I also think Trump will die of Health complications long before 2024 tbh: dude had COVID and he was already a big unhealthy gently caress with a dying brain I think the FYGM hellhole comment is apt: American Gen X and the Boomers see no issue with burning the ladders that helped them ascend, and until Millenials decide to stop loving being a serf class and vote en masse with Gen Z our political affiliation means dick
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Nov 3, 2021 02:20
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Hellblazer187 posted:Man good thing all those boomers were new deal democrats forever. OR, and stay with me here this is difficult, if democrats actually offered people something they could earn their votes. Nah, that can't be it.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:20
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TulliusCicero posted:Too be clear, I don't think the country is headed for outright civil war, but I do see Blue states and red ststes becoming increasingly divided and just drifting away policy wise on their own. A bunch of millennials feeling the change take them over "But they're a bunch of impressionable naive kids. Can't they be happy with incremental progress?"
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Nov 3, 2021 02:22
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TulliusCicero posted:Too be clear, I don't think the country is headed for outright civil war, but I do see Blue states and red ststes becoming increasingly divided and just drifting away policy wise on their own. CT is pretty boring but im feeling relatively happy here. Did pretty much best in nation for covid so thats saying something. When the balkanization happens atleast the north east will have a strong population base to make a new country from!
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Nov 3, 2021 02:23
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Silver linings here: even with a terrible bland third wayer the GOP barely won with a pretty publicly moderate guy who got a margin of Karens upset over Beloved I think with a better candidate it's easily a reversal. T-Mac seemed to be making some pretty awful mistakes. Also if Dems ACTUALLY HAD POLICY ACCOMPLISHMENTS by the end of the year and some real good executive orders we will be okay for 2022.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:24
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Kirios posted:Democrats need to wake the gently caress up for 2022 or they are going to get trounced. This should be a massive red flag that their current strategy of "Not Trump" and nothing else isn't working. Even against actual Trump 'not Trump' is not a winning strategy. Clinton tried that in 2016 and got beaten by Trump inexplicably being the issues candidate. Biden tried it in 2020 and barely squeaked out a victory despite America being in the grips of a plague and massive economic downturn. You have to actually campaign on what you will do for people, then follow through on that message. 'Not Trump' is very weak. 'Vote!' without saying why is even worse. The democrats will absolutely not learn this lesson, and will instead take away that they should have 'not Trump'ed even harder and also that the progressives are somehow to blame for this
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Nov 3, 2021 02:25
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I refused to consider this hypothesis because it was way too loving stupid but now I have some very serious concerns If you consider Georgia Senate the model, you focus on an economic populist message and distance yourself from the more extreme social stuff. VA Dems got paintballed on crt and nationally there’s been very little actual economic populism delivered. This is the result.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:26
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TulliusCicero posted:Silver linings here: even with A terrible bland third wayer the GOP barely won with a pretty publicly moderate guy who got a margin of Karens upset over Beloved Those are big ifs that require the democrats and their strategists to be able to look into the mirror and realize they hosed up by bringing absolutely nothing to the table and hoping that'd be enough If they do what it seems like early responses are going to be (blame the progressives/continue trying to court the "center") then... I would not hold my breath.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:27
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spacetoaster posted:OR, and stay with me here this is difficult, if democrats actually offered people something they could earn their votes. Regardless of candidate quality, Dems tend to over-perform in Presidential years and under-perform in off-year elections. I'm not sure what drives so many voters out to vote for Dems every 4 years, but for half of that group to not show up for midterms and then surge back out two years later.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:27
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I have no choice but to live in the only part of the united states that at bare minimum figured out that poor people should still have healthcare, and that's just the way it has to be until then. So I know where I am in the intensifying divide.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:27
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NJ has tightened to Murphy +6 with 22 percent of the vote in. That almost perfectly tracks with polling if it holds.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:28
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TulliusCicero posted:Silver linings here: even with a terrible bland third wayer the GOP barely won with a pretty publicly moderate guy who got a margin of Karens upset over Beloved You are dealing with mainstream Democrats, many of whom have large donors to appease. I'm pretty certain everyone's going to take the wrong lessons from this and just try to deliver more Clintonian means-tested measures to try to appease the suburbs. I guess I'm going to have to continue trimming my news diet for a while. This feels incredibly depressing.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:28
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Good Soldier Svejk posted:I don't know that this is really true. They just barely legalized weed, have been dragging teachers for the last few years by not giving them pay raises, and can barely keep the public transit/roads functioning at a time when the population is absolutely loving booming down here with all the tech expansion. Don't forget that when a minimum wage increase bill came up as soon as the Dems won the state legislature, a bunch of them immediately went "Whoa hey we don't want to scare away businesses from setting up here!" and it failed.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:28
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Part of it is that off-year Gubernatorial elections aren't predictive of national elections and the other part is that state-level politics aren't necessary indicative of the state's federal politics.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:28
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Sanguinia posted:R's are taking the House, Lt. Gov and Sec of State too. Super fine. Hope you're really enjoying Virginia's last election. Wow, drat if it was this critical Democrats should have probably have run someone good. hosed up they threw away democracy like that.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:29
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While blaming the failings of the Democrats is par for the course, I never hear much said about the GOP having any agency. It seems they ran a better campaign, and successfully pissed people off more than the other side. I do fear that getting people angry is the strategy that seems to win over even small gains. Is there any research on guaging relative anger of each party in previous elections?
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Nov 3, 2021 02:33
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^Some of that is because really their CRT strategy shouldn't have worked, but the Dems just didn't really address it or handle it well. A good body blow in the campaign but it never should have been a knockout.Good Soldier Svejk posted:I don't know that this is really true. They just barely legalized weed, have been dragging teachers for the last few years by not giving them pay raises, and can barely keep the public transit/roads functioning at a time when the population is absolutely loving booming down here with all the tech expansion. It kinda seems like they've been loving it up and half-committing for years now and are being dragged kicking and screaming into doing the necessary things when it can't be avoided anymore like the rest of the country. Yeah, I wasn't really educated enough on it to start poo poo about it, but all the talk about the most progressive government ever seemed a little off. They did some cool symbolic things and stuff that needed done, but ending the Death Penalty is pretty far down the list of an everyday voter's priorities compared to things like grocery sales taxes or the minimum wage. And a glacially slow weed legalization isn't going to drive people to the polls either.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:35
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Democrat party is all about asking everybody to calm down
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Nov 3, 2021 02:35
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Heck Yes! Loam! posted:While blaming the failings of the Democrats is par for the course, I never hear much said about the GOP having any agency. It seems they ran a better campaign, and successfully pissed people off more than the other side. My dude, 30% of Republicans condone violent political solutions, even when they don't know the problem they want to solve other than Dems existing. Barring more people getting slowly killed in broad daylight on camera, they're gonna have the anger edge over us. They have several whole-rear end networks telling them why they should be mad, this time they found something that caught on outside the bubble.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:36
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https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1455705503464673282?s=20 The left is about to get power slammed into 5 tables by Joe Biden.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:36
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KOTEX GOD OF BLOOD posted:Most governor's races are not referendums on national issue dynamics. This one definitely was Was it? Education and the economy were the two biggest issues. 62% of Virginians said the economy was good or excellent and education was basically an umbrella issue for "CRT/Transgender bathroom/confederate history/mask mandates." Those are all local issues and the conventional wisdom is "good economy = good for incumbent." The national mood definitely impacts turnout/enthusiasm, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was a referendum on policies. According to the exit polls, most people said neither Biden or Trump had any impact on their vote. Republicans winning by 17 points didn't hurt Obama in 2012 and T-Mac winning in 2013 didn't stop 2014 from being a big Republican year. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Nov 3, 2021 |
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Nov 3, 2021 02:38
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Nonsense posted:https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1455705503464673282?s=20 https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1455708311634972676 He is either too left or too right. Definitely one of those.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:38
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wtf, NJ's practically tied with 29 percent of the vote in.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:40
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:^Some of that is because really their CRT strategy shouldn't have worked, but the Dems just didn't really address it or handle it well. A good body blow in the campaign but it never should have been a knockout. I mean I'm certainly not position myself as an expert on the subject but living there I can say the messaging they put out resonated with absolutely no one. Parents are pissed, teachers are pissed, (college) students are pissed, transit commuters are pissed, road commuters are pissed, contractors are pissed, service industry workers are pissed The last 2+ years has been those groups getting run roughshod over for various reasons and what they wanted to hear is "I will help you" not "this guy sucks"
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Nov 3, 2021 02:40
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:https://twitter.com/blakehounshell/status/1455708311634972676 What do Manchin and Sienma think? They're the only ones who matter right now. Here's hoping they don't think stopping the Dems is going to help them, because it won't.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:41
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TwoQuestions posted:My dude, 30% of Republicans condone violent political solutions, even when they don't know the problem they want to solve other than Dems existing. Yeah that's my point. If anger is a key factor in turning out your base, then then the GOP has an advantage there. I wonder what role Facebook has in driving anger as a turnout driver. It seems the only way you short circuit anger being a motivation for turnout is delivering on policies that improve peoples lives so ultimately it all comes back to the same place. Actually pass something good and run on it.
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Nov 3, 2021 02:41
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