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A GIANT PARSNIP posted:Randomly assign each municipality a time zone from the 24 available. let the fcc regulate/sell time zones so they don't get overused
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Nov 5, 2021 06:34
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With regard to absolutely perfect D&D poster Fancy Pelosi getting banned for posting in this thread, I’d like to point out that technically this is a new thread so I’m actually not thread banned (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 5, 2021 06:49
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BougieBitch posted:The take away here is that even without any dumb technocrat stuff, the "student debt jubilee" policy won't move the needle - it isn't beneficial to 87% of people and a fairly large proportion of them would feel slighted. If you want an unimpeachable policy, you have to find a way to tie the student debt relief stuff with something that would benefit people with no student loans, or you are gonna piss off the blue-collar workers and the scholarship-getters that won't benefit 100% agreed, a debt jubilee is not enough. A lump sum for everyone who already paid their debts, and free college for everyone else sounds good.
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Nov 5, 2021 06:54
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Fister Roboto posted:100% agreed, a debt jubilee is not enough. A lump sum for everyone who already paid their debts, and free college for everyone else sounds good. on top of this, destroy for-profit schools and salt the earth. Subsidized graduate/professional degrees. Maybe make an exception for law school simply because there is such a glut. Extend GI bill benefits elsewhere. Also, people can flunk out of college in two semesters if they do that poorly so I have to lol at the whole "but the standards!" as if the standards right now aren't "can you pay? y/n"
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Nov 5, 2021 09:38
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AmiYumi posted:I don’t remember the specific meds from last time I studied this, but pain management immediately springs to mind - an hour of unmanaged pain becomes a bigger problem than just giving them their dose on time, and often escalates to a need for further intervention. Don’t gently caress with medication schedules for no reason. Well if it comes back to you, please post it because it doesn't match up with what I've learned or seen in practice. Pain medications shouldnt be delayed, but those prescriptions are never written with a specific time of administration. It's either "take every X-Y hours as needed", "take X times daily", or "take before X activity"--none of which would be affected by an hour time change. The relative timing of Med administration to other activities & medications is what's important, not whether the clock reads an hour ahead from yesterday. The rest of your points regarding DST have some evidence but the medication one is baseless as far as I know
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Nov 5, 2021 10:11
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VitalSigns posted:Oh I see. Yeah I mean the main reason I support it is that I think it's good policy and the right thing to do. Right, the point I'm making is solely WRT forgiveness alone, like if Biden did it by executive order. Since he can't authorize new spending with an EO, it would be a tactical error to do it from a "get re-elected" perspective. I don't remember exactly which Senate seats are flippable next year, but PA is one of the gettables and would probably be hurt rather than helped - if we genuinely think elections are mostly about turnout, we have to consider that R turnout is about FYGM, NIMBY, and general resentment and outrage. A policy that disproportionately benefits the highly educated and minorities is exactly what will stir that up - although you can argue that Fox news will just spin anything regardless, there are CNN and Wall Street Journal types that will hate this too, and it mostly would just be running up the score in the urban core while losing numbers for suburbs and rural areas, which is bad for keeping the House.
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Nov 5, 2021 12:05
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BougieBitch posted:Right, the point I'm making is solely WRT forgiveness alone, like if Biden did it by executive order. Since he can't authorize new spending with an EO, it would be a tactical error to do it from a "get re-elected" perspective. I don't remember exactly which Senate seats are flippable next year, but PA is one of the gettables and would probably be hurt rather than helped - if we genuinely think elections are mostly about turnout, we have to consider that R turnout is about FYGM, NIMBY, and general resentment and outrage. A policy that disproportionately benefits the highly educated and minorities is exactly what will stir that up - although you can argue that Fox news will just spin anything regardless, there are CNN and Wall Street Journal types that will hate this too, and it mostly would just be running up the score in the urban core while losing numbers for suburbs and rural areas, which is bad for keeping the House. We cant do the right thing because racists will get butthurt isn't a viable plan. It's just highlighting a failed state.
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Nov 5, 2021 12:31
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A big flaming stink posted:my dude you cannot possibly believe that donald trump giving someone 25 thousand dollars was completely on the up-and-up. Trump bought a winery in Virginia in 2011 and then gave it to Eric. Maybe there is a connection there?
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Nov 5, 2021 12:45
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Nenonen posted:Trump bought a winery in Virginia in 2011 and then gave it to Eric. Maybe there is a connection there? I'll draw an arrow on my whiteboard from WINERY to TMAC
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Nov 5, 2021 12:59
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Bel Shazar posted:We cant do the right thing because racists will get butthurt isn't a viable plan. It's just highlighting a failed state. Try “we shouldn’t do x, because it will look like we’re disproportionately favoring a small group of people that already is relatively better off. It will not meaningfully improve our chance of electoral victory, but instead will piss off the rest of the electorate - some of which in the very core group that we rely on”
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Nov 5, 2021 13:11
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morothar posted:Try “we shouldn’t do x, because it will look like we’re disproportionately favoring a small group of people that already is relatively better off. It will not meaningfully improve our chance of electoral victory, but instead will piss off the rest of the electorate - some of which in the very core group that we rely on” ...How is "removing a massive financial burden off of most of the younger generations" not meaningfully improving chances at victory? Is this country that full of FYGM NIMBY fucks that we can never pass any positive legislation again? In that case why the gently caress even have a government: we've already lost. The idea that Democrats wouldn't instantly gain more votes by wiping out student loan debt is loving ridiculous. Same with legalized weed. Same with universal healthcare. TulliusCicero fucked around with this message at 13:21 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 13:19
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"We can't do to many good things or the people who hate good things might get mad and vote against us" The shocking twist: they already are!
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Nov 5, 2021 13:22
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Main Paineframe posted:There's one other point that separates them from the average middle-class family, though Yes, they own a real estate company.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:27
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morothar posted:Try “we shouldn’t do x, because it will look like we’re disproportionately favoring a small group of people that already is relatively better off. It will not meaningfully improve our chance of electoral victory, but instead will piss off the rest of the electorate - some of which in the very core group that we rely on” Yes, those extremely useful and not at all theater elections we hold. Quite important in our definitely working governments. It's absolutely the case that people need to be more focused on getting elected over any other consideration. That is *definitely* a healthy electorate.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:28
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House announced that they are holding the first votes on BBB and BIF today. They added 4 weeks of paid leave back in, modified the SALT changes, and added some more spending. But, there is a 99% chance that all of those are going to get stripped out for the Senate versions. So, don't get too attached to them. That would put the estimated time for final passage and being signed into law around November 19th, assuming (and that is a giant assuming given the track record) no more major delays in the Senate.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:34
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TulliusCicero posted:...How is "removing a massive financial burden off of most of the younger generations" not meaningfully improving chances at victory? You're really overestimating the number of people who actually go to college and accrue significant debt
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Nov 5, 2021 13:39
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TulliusCicero posted:Is this country that full of FYGM NIMBY fucks that we can never pass any positive legislation again? In that case why the gently caress even have a government: we've already lost. It's exactly this, and until most people admit it we won't ever make it better. Not to say it *can*, but it definitely cannot if we can't even admit we're fundamentally broken.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:43
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rscott posted:You're really overestimating the number of people who actually go to college and accrue significant debt Please explain to me how this same logic cannot be applied to "you are really overestimating the number of people who make over 150k a year" but we bend over backwards on command to make sure those fucks don't pay taxes
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Nov 5, 2021 13:45
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https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1456599818835570694?s=20 https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/1456600426216837125?s=20 https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1456600132930125829?s=20 Very good job numbers today plus the first vote on the BBB. and then there's this as well https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1456598629599354886?s=20 Things are looking good going into 2022. The best thing that can happen is the economy getting back on track, keeping kids in school and COVID surges becoming less pronounced if no new variant pops up.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:46
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TulliusCicero posted:...How is "removing a massive financial burden off of most of the younger generations" not meaningfully improving chances at victory? Even for under-34s, only 34% have student debt. That’s not “most of the younger generation”. In total, it’s ~44M people. That’s a special interest group, like SALT. This group breaks Democratic already. So when you pass policy that benefits this special interest group only, what’s the marginal amount of additional votes you are going to get? Then, what’s the marginal amount of additional votes the other side will get? Degree holders are a minority in this country, and on top of blue color workers getting hosed over for decades by every trend out there, now you pass a big handout to relatively-better off colleague graduates, while doing nothing for them? On top, yeah, FYGM is a thing you need to reckon with. People aren’t willing to inconvenience themselves for 15 minutes to reduce the chance of spreading a deadly disease to others - and that includes a large share of progressives, who could not wait to stop wearing masks. Anecdotally, as a recent NJ to CO transplant, the SALT reinstatement absolutely triggers liberals here in CO emotionally, despite most everybody understanding it’s good policy intellectually. Student debt relief is no different. If anything, it’s worse, because incurring debt is a personal choice. Bottom line, passing a policy designed to benefit a relatively better-off minority special interest group - while not passing policy that benefits their demographic ‘opposite’ is good politics only if you can confidently say that it will result in a positive net balance in votes.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:47
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TulliusCicero posted:...How is "removing a massive financial burden off of most of the younger generations" not meaningfully improving chances at victory? The original person was just saying that someone who said "X is bad politics because it will not provide a direct benefit to a majority of people, instead do student loan forgiveness" should note that student loan forgiveness impacts far less than a majority of people. I don't think they were arguing against it in principle.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:51
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Vorik posted:https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1456599818835570694?s=20 Not to worry: NIMBY Karens in the suburbs will find a way to praise the GOP for this, while crying over their children having to read black american literature and still refusing to treat their children for a deadly disease.
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Nov 5, 2021 13:57
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BougieBitch posted:Right, the point I'm making is solely WRT forgiveness alone, like if Biden did it by executive order. Since he can't authorize new spending with an EO, it would be a tactical error to do it from a "get re-elected" perspective. I agree completely, provided we lived in the universe where Biden's party were willing to pass his agenda through congress. Obviously it would be stupid to just forgive all loans by EO and do nothing else if he could also pass free college into law. From a policy perspective alone: it doesn't solve the student debt problem going forward if college still costs $100k! But we don't live in that universe. We live in the universe where his party is headed to near certain defeat in the midterms anyway because he's totally given up on fulfilling any of his campaign promises regardless of popularity and he is apparently unwilling or unable to whip two legislators who are stonewalling anything from happening. Given that I'd say he should use executive orders to do what good he can while he can and just hope for the best. But this is all academic because it's unlikely that the man who created the student debt crisis in the first place and bragged on the campaign trail that he has no empathy for young people has any interest in helping them under any circumstances.
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Nov 5, 2021 14:03
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morothar posted:Even for under-34s, only 34% have student debt. That’s not “most of the younger generation”. In total, it’s ~44M people. That’s a special interest group, like SALT. You're talking about the hardest to turn out group that the Democrats actually have a lock on. They have the alternative to not vote. You also shouldn't be limiting this to "under 34". I'm 38 and still have college debt from my mid-20's, because, like most people my age, that was smack-dab in the middle of the recession. The payment plans for student loans don't offer forgiveness outside of PSLF for 20-25 years after you enter repayment. Older millennials absolutely have student debt. Writing off one third of the entire millennial generation as inconsequential is not a winning electoral strategy considering what they did for Obama and the Dems in 2008. If Biden doesn't forgive one cent of my debt before he's up for reelection, he's not getting my vote again. He bought my vote last time with promised partial student loan forgiveness, I expect him to pay up. The fact that he's restarting my student loans in January is not helping his case. I'm certainly not the only one in this camp. My student loan payments will eclipse the Child Tax Credit, by the way, so he's effectively taking that away too. Xombie fucked around with this message at 14:17 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 14:14
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It's not just wiping out the debt of people. It's about making college more accessible and affordable to more people by changing that as well, because we tell young people "hey if you want a future go to college, also give us thousands of dollars to do so, do two unpayed internships, and then maaaaybe we might hire you for an intro position if the moon is full that day".
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Nov 5, 2021 14:19
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TulliusCicero posted:It's not just wiping out the debt of people. It's about making college more accessible to more people by changing that as well, because we tell young people "hey if you want a future go to college, also give us thousands of dollars to do so, do two unpayed internships, and then maaaaybe we might hire you for an intro position if the moon is full that day". "Oh and payments start 6 months after graduation, employment status be damned."
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Nov 5, 2021 14:20
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Wait, I thought the usual thing to do in regards to the unemployment stats was to not count people who stopped receiving benefits. And in September the pandemic benefits ended. Are we just juking the stats as usual again?
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Nov 5, 2021 14:29
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Biden's handling student debt even worse than doing nothing. He's not being forced into starting repayments, that's being done at his discretion
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Nov 5, 2021 14:29
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Biden's handling student debt even worse than doing nothing. He's not being forced into starting repayments, that's being done at his discretion Don't student payments fund something to do with Obamacare? I assume that's why he's restarting it.
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Nov 5, 2021 14:30
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Mizaq posted:Wait, I thought the usual thing to do in regards to the unemployment stats was to not count people who stopped receiving benefits. And in September the pandemic benefits ended. Are we just juking the stats as usual again? Yeah I'm pretty  about those numbers too, considering the Great Resignation and the very obvious staff shortages everywhere, I think this is a lot of uh, "optimistic" number crnuching
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Nov 5, 2021 14:31
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Thom12255 posted:Don't student payments fund something to do with Obamacare? I assume that's why he's restarting it. Even more reason to suspend payments. Obamacare is a loving waste - and before the tut-tutting starts, I was on one of the exchange plans for 6 months while I was unemployed and recovering from major shoulder surgery. gently caress Obamacare. Office visit for PT was $100/3x week, loving obamacare plan covered $10 of each visit. If it weren't for the "i can't afford insurance tax", it would've been cheaper to just to eat $100 out of pocket every visit.
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Nov 5, 2021 14:32
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Mizaq posted:Wait, I thought the usual thing to do in regards to the unemployment stats was to not count people who stopped receiving benefits. And in September the pandemic benefits ended. Are we just juking the stats as usual again? this is a common misconception with unemployment rates. there is a difference in the U-3 (Official) and U-6 unemployment rate (which includes those who have stopped seeking work), but they tend to correlated pretty closely. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
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Nov 5, 2021 14:33
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Xombie posted:You're talking about the hardest to turn out group that the Democrats actually have a lock on. They have the alternative to not vote. You also shouldn't be limiting this to "under 34". I'm 38 and still have college debt from my mid-20's, because, like most people my age, that was smack-dab in the middle of the recession. The payment plans for student loans don't offer forgiveness outside of PSLF for 20-25 years after you enter repayment. Older millennials absolutely have student debt. I’m not limiting it to under-34s, I’m pointing out that student loans are relatively most common among under-34s, and rapidly drop to 15% and less of the older cohorts from there. 15% is not only a very narrow slice of the electorate, stories about white collar lawyers, engineers, doctors, and STEM workers receiving a handout while making six-figure salaries are ideal material to drive GOP voter turnout among the uneducated, especially if they perceive to not have received anything similar in turn. Your last paragraph literally describes special interest group thinking, and shows how the net benefit calculation doesn’t add up. Again, not arguing against debt relief in principle, nor expanded access to college education etc. College should be free or at a nominal charge, and student debt is a racket. But, politically, passing debt relief through an uncertain EO that has a nonzero chance of being tossed out in court down the line, and giving a handout to a small, relatively better-off slice of the electorate only is not a winning strategy either.
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Nov 5, 2021 14:39
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morothar posted:I’m not limiting it to under-34s, I’m pointing out that student loans are relatively most common among under-34s, and rapidly drop to 15% and less of the older cohorts from there. democrats: we can't do good things because some people might think they're bad things republicans: we can't do good things because we're busy doing things we think are good and everyone else thinks are bad, and we're doing them anyway
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Nov 5, 2021 14:43
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Thom12255 posted:Don't student payments fund something to do with Obamacare? I assume that's why he's restarting it. That may be an excuse that eventually gets offered up when it becomes clear what a horrible decision it was but that is not the reason
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Nov 5, 2021 14:43
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Lib and let die posted:Even more reason to suspend payments. Obamacare is a loving waste - and before the tut-tutting starts, I was on one of the exchange plans for 6 months while I was unemployed and recovering from major shoulder surgery. It funds the federal portion of the Medicaid expansion. The exchange subsidies are funded through an excise tax on incomes above $200,000, cuts to Medicare advantage reimbursement rates, and taxes on businesses with more than 25 employees who don't offer healthcare. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 14:44
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It's not being proposed as a strategy, which would also require doing other things too. Each right thing Biden needs to do might not directly benefit 51% and could be argued to be "bad electoral strategy" but that's not why he should do them and that attitude is part of why so many people loving hate the Dems
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Nov 5, 2021 14:45
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The original person was just saying that someone who said "X is bad politics because it will not provide a direct benefit to a majority of people, instead do student loan forgiveness" should note that student loan forgiveness impacts far less than a majority of people. Correct. Specifically, if the loan forgiveness isn't bundled with anything else (done by EO), it seems like a complete wipeout for 2022. The only real window for it would be the 2022 or 2024 lame duck period - you have to treat it the way outgoing presidents do pardons because it will MASSIVELY piss people off Harold Fjord posted:It's not being proposed as a strategy, which would also require doing other things too. Each right thing Biden needs to do might not directly benefit 51% and could be argued to be "bad electoral strategy" but that's not why he should do them and that attitude is part of why so many people loving hate the Dems I don't disagree with this either, but the original reason it came up was people saying VA Dems didn't do anything THAT progressive, handwaving McAuliffe writing thousands of pardons to restore voting rights, fixing a bunch of hosed up anti-trans stuff, etc as "too narrow". My point is that recreational weed and student loans are ALSO "too narrow" if that is your benchmark. At a certain point you need to acknowledge that "so many people" is not actually ENOUGH people to matter, or that the cost of appeasement is too high - if you can choose between the policy that gives $1k checks to everyone or one-time forgiveness of $10k to ~10% of the population, the first one is a lot more likely to win votes. "So many people" hate the Dems because they make everything about race, "so many people" hate the Dems because they always give money to elite urbanites, and "so many people" hate the Dems because they aren't doing enough for their children, and student loan forgiveness activates those people for Reps or deactivates them for Dems as much as it activates the "so many people" who hate the Dems because they won't do anything about their student debt. BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 15:07 on Nov 5, 2021 |
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Nov 5, 2021 14:49
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TheIncredulousHulk posted:Biden's handling student debt even worse than doing nothing. He's not being forced into starting repayments, that's being done at his discretion Lol oh yeah I forgot about this. All wrangling about optimal electoral strategy is pointless when Biden's priority is clearly to reassert the power relationships of capital and labor that existed before the pandemic, with getting reelected a distant second. A few months ago on this board I was told that Biden will use the moratorium as a backdoor permanent forgiveness program. It doesn't trigger any crab-bucketing, it's ongoing relief for young people with debt who will be energized to come out and vote to defend it, and even when Republicans finally do retake the White House it may be too established by then for them to risk tampering with I even believed the people who told me that. But lol nope, Starbucks CEO is complaining he can't find enough baristas at wage-slave pay. Gotta force debtors to get second jobs and refill that reserve pool of labor so wages can race back to the bottom. Can't even wait until after the elections, gotta gently caress millions and millions of millennials and Gen Z right before the midterms for maximal electoral damage.
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Nov 5, 2021 14:52
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Lib and let die posted:democrats: we can't do good things because some people might think they're bad things Yeah, tough poo poo? Democrats: we are a broad coalition ranging from socially and/or fiscally conservative-leaning folks who are at best repressed racists/fascists, to actually social and/or fiscal liberals Ergo, doing good things for one special interest group at the perceived expense of the other groups - maybe not the best idea Republicans: we’re doing good things by preventing or reversing scary and unnecessary change. Welcome to coalitions, I suppose? How do you think things work in countries where Christian conservatives form a coalition with Greens?
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Nov 5, 2021 14:54
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