Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Sodomy Hussein posted:

Maybe Biden should just write a $50,000 loan forgiveness into EO quasilaw and then go to the mat on it in the courts and campaign on it if he can't get it. Force a bunch of conservative justices who ordinarily believe in Unitary Sun King Theory into showing their underpants about how actually the president can't do a thing when it isn't a Republican's idea. I don't know, just spitballing here.
Yeah I don't get the fear that if Biden goes too far the courts might put new limits on executive power. Didn't we just come off a four-year freakout over an authoritarian president abusing the ill-defined limits of executive power to do maximum damage, seems like getting some precedents in to curtail that would be good.

I mean what's the drawback? Biden gets slapped down and doesn't do anything for four years? That's what would happen if he just did nothing in the first place!


Darkrenown posted:

Hello! Again, the problem is you don't seem to be reading my posts, just scanning for things to be angry about, as I did cover this at least twice. But: I don't see much point being angry at individual politicians taking donations now because that's how the current system works and taking them is universal. Instead I would like to see a system where that's not the case, plus a bunch of other reforms. Don't be mad at the clowns for being clowns, stop going to the circus.
Is it fine for Democrats to take money from Donald Trump or not

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

BougieBitch
Oct 2, 2013

Basic as hell

Gumball Gumption posted:

How do you tell Joe Schmo he's benefiting from SALT? These are strategy arguments for a party that isn't fighting for SALT while compromising on actual improvements and undercutting how they said they would pay for those improvements.

You don't, which is why it wasn't in the package at the start and now is being grudgingly added back in only after they found a way to do while staying revenue neutral for reconciliation rules. It is also part of a much larger bill that includes childcare subsidies, a bunch of money for infrastructure, grants for community college, etc., so you can sell the part that matters to Joe. On the flip side, if you write an EO wiping out 1.7T in debt, that is the story - it isn't tied to anything else, it is a single stroke of a pen to do a huge thing, and there isn't a method to do the same for any other category of people, because this is only possible because they are government-held loans.

It would be good if forgiveness was part of the current bill, but for some reason they decided there would be a separate education reconciliation bill next year, so it got shunted out.

TheIncredulousHulk posted:

Polls aren't evidence there's a meaningful anti-constituency against student loan forgiveness, and this whole take is just working backwards from the conclusion that Biden and the Dems must be avoiding action for good reasons and we just need to figure out what they are
drat, if only there was a recent election where education was a major issue that we could refer to for concrete data! How did we start this discussion again?

BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Nov 5, 2021

selec
Sep 6, 2003

I gotta be honest I hope a party that can convince people to rationalize not helping those in need in public for free loses. Hope it eats poo poo and those people have to own it.

Because the party is not making things better, by their own explanations it cannot in the current state, so what is the point of it? It’s not a bulwark against anything.

I won’t vote Republican, but I simply cannot be made to care for excuse makers, number grubbers and middle class comfort masquerading as confidence that the catastrophic medical debt will never come for you: honestly, I hope it does, it’s going to come for somebody in this country, may as well be the people who want to tell us why nothing good can happen, because if it did, we wouldn’t get the opportunity for nothing good to happen in the future.

Stop voting, make money, make a pact/cadre agreement with your friends, and do not expect good things from the collective will of the people; it has been effectively stymied.

There is a bright future possible for this land (not country; not nation), but it is only likely after a wrenching bottleneck, one which attitudes of governance minded number grubbers will not get us through.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009
I still like this idea:

Fister Roboto posted:

100% agreed, a debt jubilee is not enough. A lump sum for everyone who already paid their debts, and free college for everyone else sounds good.

morothar
Dec 21, 2005

Xombie posted:

At this point you're just fudging numbers. "I"m not writing off a full third of the electorate, I'm writing off *more than 15%* of the electorate" is not a good argument for writing off a significant chunk of the Democratic base that is least likely to vote.

Nope. I started in good faith to point out that *even* in the most significantly-affected chunk of the electorate, you're looking at a plurality at best. Overall, its a absolutely narrow slice of the electorate as a whole.

Xombie posted:

I am a STEM worker. I am not rich. Most lawyers and engineers aren't rich. Most of these people are not making six figures. Your examples of the gilded elite are actually middle-class jobs. I don't understand your logic where 15-40% of the electorate doesn't matter because they're a minority, but the minority of STEM and law employees under 40 making six figures are going to enrage people to the point that there's some secret contingent GOP non-voters who outnumber them into starting to vote.

Your math here does not make sense.

College-educated folk in every cohort do better than non-college educated folk. A significant proportion do much better. Feel free to show data how college-educated folk do worse than folk with only a high school diploma.

For the purpose of political presentation and talking points, it does not matter that "most lawyers and engineers aren't rich". What matters is that they are relatively better off than most non-lawyers, and non-engineers - and that vast majority gets no hand-out.

Xombie posted:

You've invented your own definition of "special interest group" that no one has any reason to lend any credence to.

Special interest group: "a group of people or an organization seeking or receiving special advantages, typically through political lobbying." Seems spot-on.

Xombie posted:

This is a myth. And Biden has not made any moves to pushing it through congress, either. He has not included it any agenda and openly opposed Congress doing it. He makes overtures that he'll study the issue of whether or not an EO can be passed, after many many people tell him he can, and then the supposed memo about it disappears into the mist instead of coming to light.

Feel free to provide a comprehensive legal analysis, relative to the track record of recent EOs. Then weight the risk for success or failure.

Re congress: yeah it's not included, because it will. not. pass. the Democratic Congress as it stands today. Solution? Dunno, elect more left-leaning Democrats?

Xombie posted:

Again, this is nonsense. Very few people with student loans are making six figures.

Again, weekly wages of college grads are nearly 2x those of high school graduates-only.


Xombie posted:

I have never seen a way that reinstating forgiven debt at this level would be legally possible. Biden promised that he would actually come out with a memo on the subject and so far has gone radio silence since stating it would happen months ago.

You also haven't seen one that says it is, nor have we seen a SCOTUS that's so nakedly uninterested in supporting the orthodox rule of law. But sure, do I want to see the results of the promised legal analysis? Absolutely, that's a minimum requirement.

Xombie posted:

Only enacting policies that help 100% of the electorate is neither an effective legislative or electoral strategy. Not doing anything for the middle class because it doesn't pander to blue collar workers is asinine.

Neither is enacting policies for the relatively best-off special interest groups. Same as SALT - the fact that Dems are including SALT in the current BBB bill again is insane to me.

Xombie posted:

Because the political identity of the US is a pendulum that swings between right and left, electing Democrats as they currently exist does not seem to actually stop worse things from happening. It just delays it for a few years. The Democrats promise the moon when they run for office and then refuse to wield the power to actually achieve their own policy goals, for fear of riling up the GOP base. Instead this achieves depressing their own voters and handing the GOP power again at barely behind where the GOP last left off.

This is why trying to avoid electoral loss by not achieving progressive goals is a losing battle. Achieving nothing legislatively does not translate to winning electorally.

Assuming the Dems manage to pass the Infrastructure and BBB bills, I have *zero* understanding for the generalized doom-calling. If spending $4T+ and making progress towards meeting a bunch of promises is "not achieving progressive goals", it means the Dems are categorically hosed in anything tangentially related to reality.


EDIT:
And assuming the bills do indeed pass, and you're not satisfied with them because they don't include your particular special interest to the extend where it means you will "never vote for Democrats again" - sorry to tell you, but that's *you* being vindictive at the expense of the general good.

morothar fucked around with this message at 16:06 on Nov 5, 2021

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

BougieBitch posted:

drat, if only there was a recent election where education was a major issue that we could refer to for concrete data! How did we start this discussion again?

Are you trying to claim that Terry McAuliffe getting burned for saying that parents shouldn't have a say in what their kids learn in school proves there would be a meaningful backlash against student loan forgiveness

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

Baronash posted:

Say the next line then.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004

BougieBitch posted:

It would be good if forgiveness was part of the current bill, but for some reason they decided there would be a separate education reconciliation bill next year, so it got shunted out.

It's because Biden doesn't want to do it.

Separating it out lets you make the "doesn't help enough people argument". If they package it with other things, it would be accepted by the people who got other kinds of handouts. But fundamentally Biden does not want to do this good thing. So it gets set up to be triangulated away.

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

Cranappleberry posted:

I still like this idea:

It's the rare kind of means-testing that could actually be good, and not extremely lovely.

(It'd be better for everyone to get a lump sum no matter what, obviously, but at least that would be an acceptable compromise)

Sharkie
Feb 4, 2013

by Fluffdaddy
Democratic Party:

So in my first official act as Prefect, I ordered all labour camp commanders to reduce their output quotas by fifty percent. Then I reorganised the camps themselves. Child labour was abolished. Medical care was improved. Food rations were increased. At the end of one month of my administration, the death rate had dropped by twenty percent. Now how did the Bajorans react to all this? On my one month anniversary they blew up an orbital dry-dock, killing over two hundred Cardassian soldiers and workers...So I had to order a response. But even then it was a carefully tempered one. I ordered two hundred suspected members of the Resistance rounded up and executed. Two hundred lives for two hundred lives. That's justice, not malevolence. Justice.

"Look, just shutting down the camps wasn't politically viable, and it would have angered more conservative guls back on Cardassia! Reducing the death rate by 20% is absolutely an improvement! Are you saying you don't want it reduced by 20%? And he simply didn't have the authority to reduce quotas more than that, if he just shut the camps down, that would make him a tyrant."

Shammypants
May 25, 2004

Let me tell you about true luxury.

Hearing seemingly normal people in various places complain about how angry they would be if current loanees or existing loanees received relief and they didn't actually surprised me. I think the backlash would be fairly substantial, and the electoral consequences uncertain, particularly since younger people would tend to benefit more and vote less.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

BougieBitch posted:


It would be good if forgiveness was part of the current bill, but for some reason they decided there would be a separate education reconciliation bill next year, so it got shunted out.

You cannot possibly believe they really intend to spend trillions on this next year after they just cut down BBB to an arbitrary $1.75T, cut the help more because they removed all the pay-fors to keep the Trump tax cuts for the rich, and then cut down the help even further so they could afford to make even more tax cuts for the rich

You cannot possibly believe what you're saying here, come on.

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



Shammypants posted:

Hearing seemingly normal people in various places complain about how angry they would be if current loanees or existing loanees received relief and they didn't actually surprised me. I think the backlash would be fairly substantial, and the electoral consequences uncertain, particularly since younger people would tend to benefit more and vote less.

Just food for thought here: WHY do you think younger people vote less? Do you think it's because maybe they are completely disillusioned and angry with a party that refuses the barest possible outreach to them while constantly seeking the vote of people who actively hate them, but DEMANDS the vote of them to keep worse things from happening?

Maybe, just maybe if they were thrown a bone or two they might vote in larger numbers, and you wouldn't have to rely on unreliable sources of votes to fill your margins so Joe Manchin can hold court on his loving house boat and wax poetic about how to Means Test Means Testing.

But no, there is just something in a younger person's brain that causes them to not want to vote and be ungrateful, that must be it.

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

Vorik posted:

passing debt relief would certainly would be the easiest lay up in history for Republicans, and would completely doom Democrats for a generation to come.

Jfc.

This student loan discussion has pretty much made me lose it. This is the most bad faith bullshit I've ever seen.

Republicans can literally cut taxes for billionaires and nothing happens. But a "give away" to a computer programmer making $80k, well, that's just the end of the party as we know it! See, if they do that, they'll get killed at the polls by...the people who love billionaire tax breaks!

Something that's fundamentally missing from this discussion is the fact that voters do not know what the president does, the generally do not know what he has done, and many do not have a coherent ideology or even many policy preferences. They do not know what laws have been passed or what laws are being debated. If a law is passed they don't know what it does or who it helps. They know if their life is getting better or getting worse. If life is getting worse, they punish the party in power. If their life is getting better, they might reward the party in power.

Wiping out student debt will not make anybody's life worse. It will make 45 million lives better. There are many people who, if you ask them about it, will say they oppose it. But it won't actually impact their lives negatively. Negatively impacting zero people while positively impacting 45 million people directly and the rest of the country indirectly via stimulus would not "completely doom Democrats for a generation to come."

The fact that so many of you think this is depressing as gently caress, though.

Edit: Democrats are loving doomed for 2022 and 2024 as things stand because they've done close to nothing. And here you have people going "oh, they better not do a thing though!" because some people might not like it. I get it, it's academic since Biden hates young people, but holy poo poo.

Hellblazer187 fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Nov 5, 2021

Lib and let die
Aug 26, 2004

Student loan debt relief would objectively help more people than just the borrowers. You think most parents want their kids at home until they're in their mid-to-late twenties? Think of the financial burden on the parent that having a kid straddled with student loan debt to the point they still live in their familial home has to deal with. Maybe mom and dad really want to sell the house, because it costs so much to heat in the winter and cool in the summer because it's a 5 bedroom and move to a small condo or townhose for their retirement/geriatric orgy party but they're shackled to a huge house that the cost to maintain keeps going up. Absolving payers of student loan debt could lift entire families out from under the boot of Big Banking, but Biden won't do it.

Give college grads more purchasing power and maybe we can reduce the iron stranglehold that companies like BlackRock have on the real estate market even. Student loan debt relief would have a cascading effect in improving life across MULTIPLE demographics, but it just won't happen, because we know what state Biden is from, and we know which state the banking industry has most of its financial HQs in.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

TulliusCicero posted:

Just food for thought here: WHY do you think younger people vote less? Do you think it's because maybe they are completely disillusioned and angry with a party that refuses the barest possible outreach to them while constantly seeking the vote of people who actively hate them, but DEMANDS the vote of them to keep worse things from happening?

Maybe, just maybe if they were thrown a bone or two they might vote in larger numbers, and you wouldn't have to rely on unreliable sources of votes to fill your margins so Joe Manchin can hold court on his loving house boat and wax poetic about how to Means Test Means Testing.

But no, there is just something in a younger person's brain that causes them to not want to vote and be ungrateful, that must be it.

Young people are too busy filming themselves eating avocado toast and Tide pods to vote.

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009

Srice posted:

It's the rare kind of means-testing that could actually be good, and not extremely lovely.

(It'd be better for everyone to get a lump sum no matter what, obviously, but at least that would be an acceptable compromise)

I added the elimination of for-profit schools, subsidized graduate/professional degrees, increase GI bill benefits elsewhere.

also the byline about "but if college is free standards will drop!" is bullshit

morothar
Dec 21, 2005

TulliusCicero posted:

Just food for thought here: WHY do you think younger people vote less? Do you think it's because maybe they are completely disillusioned and angry with a party that refuses the barest possible outreach to them while constantly seeking the vote of people who actively hate them, but DEMANDS the vote of them to keep worse things from happening?

Maybe, just maybe if they were thrown a bone or two they might vote in larger numbers, and you wouldn't have to rely on unreliable sources of votes to fill your margins so Joe Manchin can hold court on his loving house boat and wax poetic about how to Means Test Means Testing.

But no, there is just something in a younger person's brain that causes them to not want to vote and be ungrateful, that must be it.

Virtually everything in the Infrastructure and BBB bills benefits young people, often most or exclusively. $4T+ in spending that would never have materialized without the Democrats being (barely) in power.

Truly, young people have no reason to vote Democrat ever again.

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

morothar posted:

Virtually everything in the Infrastructure and BBB bills benefits young people, often most or exclusively. $4T+ in spending that would never have materialized without the Democrats being (barely) in power.

Truly, young people have no reason to vote Democrat ever again.

Yeah man let me tell you how much me and my millennial squad are looking forward to slamming our sick SALT deductions

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

morothar posted:

Virtually everything in the Infrastructure and BBB bills benefits young people, often most or exclusively. $4T+ in spending that would never have materialized without the Democrats being (barely) in power.

Truly, young people have no reason to vote Democrat ever again.

Considering how much the bill has been stripped down over the past several months (It's no longer at $4T, for one), I can't help but feel like when something is finally signed it's gonna end with people like me being fed table scraps off the dirty ground while being told that I should be grateful.

RBA Starblade
Apr 28, 2008

Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

Didn't more young people vote Biden than Bernie?

e: No lol I misread an article about turnout between 2016 and the primaries

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

TulliusCicero posted:

Just food for thought here: WHY do you think younger people vote less? Do you think it's because maybe they are completely disillusioned and angry with a party that refuses the barest possible outreach to them while constantly seeking the vote of people who actively hate them, but DEMANDS the vote of them to keep worse things from happening?

Maybe, just maybe if they were thrown a bone or two they might vote in larger numbers, and you wouldn't have to rely on unreliable sources of votes to fill your margins so Joe Manchin can hold court on his loving house boat and wax poetic about how to Means Test Means Testing.

But no, there is just something in a younger person's brain that causes them to not want to vote and be ungrateful, that must be it.

Biden got the most raw votes for president in electoral history with the youth overwhelmingly voting for him and all they got was scorn from the democrats for not voting harder and giving them more seats, the cops backed to the hilt, their student loans turned back on, and every campaign plank abandoned for more tax cuts for the rich

Darkrenown
Jul 18, 2012
please give me anything to talk about besides the fact that democrats are allowing millions of americans to be evicted from their homes

Xombie posted:

At this point you're just fudging numbers. "I"m not writing off a full third of the electorate, I'm writing off *more than 15%* of the electorate" is not a good argument for writing off a significant chunk of the Democratic base that is least likely to vote.

I don't think morothar is trying to fudge numbers, they are just replying to your claim that most of the younger generation has student debt. They first showed the numbers for under 34s, and then expanded the range a bit when you mentioned being 38.

VitalSigns posted:

Is it fine for Democrats to take money from Donald Trump or not

I'm done chasing your ever-moving goalposts, so you'll just have to live with not knowing (unless you read my earlier posts where this is also answered).

Darkrenown fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Nov 5, 2021

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




Harold Fjord posted:

We saw how well that approach of offering nothing worked in VA.

“What I do know is I do know that people want us to get things done.”

They know they have to start improving lives. The problem is they may not effectively be able to.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

RBA Starblade posted:

Didn't more young people vote Biden than Bernie?

Not while it was competitive. Bernie generally got a larger share of the youth vote (depending on when you consider the cutoff for youth). His main problem was that the youth vote didn't actually come out.

Biden won the youth vote in blowout races like Virginia, D.C., and Georgia and after the race was no longer competitive. But, Bernie won it in all of the earlier races except for SC.

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

The people arguing against student loan relief in this thread did more to radicalize me than a thousand CSPAMers on a thousand typewriters could in a thousand years.

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

RBA Starblade posted:

Didn't more young people vote Biden than Bernie?

e: No lol I misread an article about turnout between 2016 and the primaries

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/sanders-banked-on-young-voters-heres-how-the-numbers-have-played-out

Sanders had the highest youth appeal. He, like others, suffered from those youth votes getting outweighed by higher voting rates and higher voting numbers in other demographics.

I'm sure you guys have all hashed out why young people don't vote, but a youth vote tidal wave is one of those tantalizing treasures that no one seems to be able to actually attain. It's like the Democrats being able to win Florida right now. You have to try, but it's really doesn't seem to be paying off.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Motto posted:

It's really funny that democrats will see themselves do better with college grads and decide the best thing to do is make college less accessible and punish those who do go.

From a surface-level horse race punditry analysis of politics this seems insane, but from a class analysis it makes perfect sense. Education of the masses is dangerous.

In the postwar area, cheap education available to all* was a bipartisan project. All those unlettered blue collar types were causing all sorts of problems for the status quo: organizing, falling for socialist propaganda, disrupting the rhythms of industrial production, etc and it was assumed that a good education would turn them into well-behaved upright citizens like the Rockefellers and the Bushes. That must be why the children of the rich were such staunch defenders of the status quo right, superior upbringing and education!

But oops turns out if poor people get educated it makes them too dang liberal. Can't have the next generation's cannon fodder asking questions like "hey wait why do I have to get shot trying to kill this Arab or Korean who never did anything to me?"

*Restrictions and conditions apply in the South, and even if you're in the North don't let those people sit next to my Sally

Sharkie
Feb 4, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Hellblazer187 posted:

The people arguing against student loan relief in this thread did more to radicalize me than a thousand CSPAMers on a thousand typewriters could in a thousand years.

If someone tells me they want to hang out, then they keep giving me endless excuses about why they can't, eventually I decide they don't really want me around. Then once every four years when they hit me up for money, I can tell them to gently caress off. Politics works the same way.

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Hellblazer187 posted:

Republicans can literally cut taxes for billionaires and nothing happens.

Largely because their messaging was not "we're going to cut the taxes of billionaires," and was instead "We're going to cut taxesmostly for billionaires"

They benefitted from the fact that people like tax cuts even if they only benefit slightly, and that 50 years of Republican messaging has nurtured their base (and honestly most liberals) into a weird parasocial solidarity with the extremely wealthy.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Hellblazer187 posted:

Jfc.

This student loan discussion has pretty much made me lose it. This is the most bad faith bullshit I've ever seen.

Whoa, settle down, Beavis.

Hellblazer187 posted:

Republicans can literally cut taxes for billionaires and nothing happens. But a "give away" to a computer programmer making $80k, well, that's just the end of the party as we know it! See, if they do that, they'll get killed at the polls by...the people who love billionaire tax breaks!
First of all, I don't think anybody is saying it would be the "end of the party as we know it." Just that it isn't the clear-cut electoral slam dunk a lot of people are portraying it as. (And on a personal level I would like it if the government flat-out gave me tens of thousands of dollars.)

But the fact of the matter is, there are a shitload of people in America - including poor people - who think forgiving debt that was knowingly taken on (even if it was by literal children) is wrong, and that taxes are bad, full stop.

Hellblazer187 posted:

Wiping out student debt will not make anybody's life worse. It will make 45 million lives better. There are many people who, if you ask them about it, will say they oppose it. But it won't actually impact their lives negatively. Negatively impacting zero people while positively impacting 45 million people directly and the rest of the country indirectly via stimulus would not "completely doom Democrats for a generation to come."

If "runaway government spending" isn't a convincing argument to a lot of people then it's kind of hard to understand why Republicans win approximately half of elections with that as pretty much their only economic message. I agree that nobody outside of the 45 million affected will suffer a negative impact from loan forgiveness. But millions will think that they do, especially when inflation is relatively high and public perception of inflation is through the roof.

Hellblazer187 posted:

The fact that so many of you think this is depressing as gently caress, though.
The realities of how hosed the American electorate is are depressing, yes.

Hellblazer187 posted:

Edit: Democrats are loving doomed for 2022 and 2024 as things stand because they've done close to nothing. And here you have people going "oh, they better not do a thing though!" because some people might not like it. I get it, it's academic since Biden hates young people, but holy poo poo.
I agree that it's academic, because Biden hates young people. The argument isn't "Biden would be doing this thing if it was more popular," it's "Biden not doing the thing that he doesn't want to do isn't electoral poison."

Passing child care measures such as are in the reconciliation bill will be a massive help electorally, because it can't easily be spun as an "elites vs. regular folk" measure; those kinds of debates are lethal to Democrats in a lot of rural areas, as we just saw this week. If the Dems don't pass the two bills they have no chance. If they do, they still have almost no chance, but at least we'll have gotten some good policy out of their two years in control.

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:36 on Nov 5, 2021

Ershalim
Sep 22, 2008
Clever Betty

VitalSigns posted:

You cannot possibly believe they really intend to spend trillions on this next year after they just cut down BBB to an arbitrary $1.75T, cut the help more because they removed all the pay-fors to keep the Trump tax cuts for the rich, and then cut down the help even further so they could afford to make even more tax cuts for the rich

You cannot possibly believe what you're saying here, come on.

I think most people believe this, actually. The common liberal (classical liberal, not "american liberal") mindset is that democracy is functional and works for the people it purports to, but it just needs to be pushed in order to get the outcomes they want because there are some bad actors here and there that make things more difficult. It's very hard for most people to look at the system and see that it causes the bad actors itself by the way it interacts with concentrated wealth and power, and so there aren't any bad actors that aren't entirely replaceable by someone who will behave in exactly the same ways because that's what the system does.

So for most politically active people, there's a fiction that democracy "gives" us things. We get rights and privileges and freedoms and in return we reify the system (and it's subsystems) as sacrosanct. So the idea that maybe buying into political theatre doesn't actually do anything when compared to collective actions like riots or strikes or threats of revolt -- the things that actually made the powerful give people concessions -- is kind of unthinkable for a lot of people. There's a lot of identity invested in being a democrat or a republican, and there's a lot of cognitive dissonance that comes from shaking that title off has having been mostly meaningless.

tl;dr -- if you've invested a lot of resources in making yourself/others believe that systemic changes come from voting, it would be very hard not to think that those systemic changes were coming, despite whatever evidence you might encounter otherwise. It's why so many people are so willing to make excuses for the party and people are so keen to pick out the bad actors as the reasons why we can't (and even shouldn't!) do the things we ostensibly voted these people in to do.

TulliusCicero posted:

Just food for thought here: WHY do you think younger people vote less? Do you think it's because maybe they are completely disillusioned and angry with a party that refuses the barest possible outreach to them while constantly seeking the vote of people who actively hate them, but DEMANDS the vote of them to keep worse things from happening?

Honestly, I'm coming to the conclusion that the reason young people don't vote as much is because it's self-evident that it's not actually effective at getting what you want; they simply haven't been exposed to enough propaganda to get them to buy into the system yet. That could be off, but it would explain why the trend of young people not voting is pretty universal. Like how kids have to be taught racism and how not to share, they also have to be taught to temper their own expectations of what the system will allow to be possible. For lack of a better way of saying that.

Ershalim fucked around with this message at 16:37 on Nov 5, 2021

Gumball Gumption
Jan 7, 2012

Would loan forgiveness be more or less unpopular than giving 10 billion extra to the pentagon for they're budget? A thing that both parties did without much incident.

TheIncredulousHulk
Sep 3, 2012

VitalSigns posted:

From a surface-level horse race punditry analysis of politics this seems insane, but from a class analysis it makes perfect sense. Education of the masses is dangerous.

In the postwar area, cheap education available to all* was a bipartisan project. All those unlettered blue collar types were causing all sorts of problems for the status quo: organizing, falling for socialist propaganda, disrupting the rhythms of industrial production, etc and it was assumed that a good education would turn them into well-behaved upright citizens like the Rockefellers and the Bushes. That must be why the children of the rich were such staunch defenders of the status quo right, superior upbringing and education!

But oops turns out if poor people get educated it makes them too dang liberal. Can't have the next generation's cannon fodder asking questions like "hey wait why do I have to get shot trying to kill this Arab or Korean who never did anything to me?"

*Restrictions and conditions apply in the South, and even if you're in the North don't let those people sit next to my Sally

"We are in danger of producing an educated proletariat. That's dynamite!"

Xombie
May 22, 2004

Soul Thrashing
Black Sorcery

morothar posted:

Nope. I started in good faith to point out that *even* in the most significantly-affected chunk of the electorate, you're looking at a plurality at best. Overall, its a absolutely narrow slice of the electorate as a whole.

Again, you're just fudging numbers. You're continually just stating that one-third of a generation should be written off and i'm pointing out that doesn't constinute something to be written off. One third is not a "narrow slice" just because it's less than two thirds.

One third of a pie is not a small piece of pie.

quote:

College-educated folk in every cohort do better than non-college educated folk. A significant proportion do much better. Feel free to show data how college-educated folk do worse than folk with only a high school diploma.

For the purpose of political presentation and talking points, it does not matter that "most lawyers and engineers aren't rich". What matters is that they are relatively better off than most non-lawyers, and non-engineers - and that vast majority gets no hand-out.

You're moving the goalposts here. You were arguing that they're six-figure salaries. Now it's "much better" than non-college-educated. People doing better than other people shouldn't exclude them from economic hardship forgiveness. The onus to prove that they should be excluded is on you.

I consider myself a real human being and not a political talking point. I'm not going to discuss myself as only a theoretical person.

quote:

Special interest group: "a group of people or an organization seeking or receiving special advantages, typically through political lobbying." Seems spot-on.

People with student loans are an organized "lobby" now? I'm not sure why you think this made your poor argument more convincing.

quote:

Feel free to provide a comprehensive legal analysis, relative to the track record of recent EOs. Then weight the risk for success or failure.

https://fortune.com/education/static/9af9ebeca9bd57ad4c30aab3863a8750/student-debt-letter-2.pdf

Now you go.

quote:

Re congress: yeah it's not included, because it will. not. pass. the Democratic Congress as it stands today. Solution? Dunno, elect more left-leaning Democrats?

What a call to arms. "Vote Democrats! We suck, so vote for us harder!"

quote:

Again, weekly wages of college grads are nearly 2x those of high school graduates-only.

Again, you are moving the goalposts.

quote:

You also haven't seen one that says it is, nor have we seen a SCOTUS that's so nakedly uninterested in supporting the orthodox rule of law. But sure, do I want to see the results of the promised legal analysis? Absolutely, that's a minimum requirement.

https://fortune.com/education/static/9af9ebeca9bd57ad4c30aab3863a8750/student-debt-letter-2.pdf

Once again, now you go.

quote:

Neither is enacting policies for the relatively best-off special interest groups. Same as SALT - the fact that Dems are including SALT in the current BBB bill again is insane to me.

Your continual attempt to cast one-third of middle-class millennial households as "best-off special interest groups" is not actually making your argument look good or convincing. It is a poor argument strategy and just makes you look out of touch and dishonest.

quote:

Assuming the Dems manage to pass the Infrastructure and BBB bills, I have *zero* understanding for the generalized doom-calling. If spending $4T+ and making progress towards meeting a bunch of promises is "not achieving progressive goals", it means the Dems are categorically hosed in anything tangentially related to reality.

You're talking about bills that are completely gutted as of right now. If you don't understand how passing gutted, compromised, and neutered legislation is going to hamstring the Dems in the mid-terms then you can go ahead and dial the clock back to 2010 when the Dems got shellacked after passing the ACA.

You and the Democratic party can continually shrug and feel great about how in-tune "with reality" you are when they pass something that comes absolutely short of what they promised when people voted for them and then those people fail to vote for them again. But you're going to get to do it from the sidelines. At some point the Democrats are going to have to admit that they, in fact, are the ones who are out of touch, and not the children.

quote:

EDIT:
And assuming the bills do indeed pass, and you're not satisfied with them because they don't include your particular special interest to the extend where it means you will "never vote for Democrats again" - sorry to tell you, but that's *you* being vindictive at the expense of the general good.

I did not and have never said I will never vote for Democrats again. I am not a "NoJoe". I am saying my vote is contingent on them following through with their promises. It is not on me to solve the problem of how. That is the job they applied for. They don't get to shrug and complain about the situation now that they're at the wheel.

I have absolutely no reason to prostrate myself on the promises of Dems who continually fail to come through, and then call me a lobbyist for demanding what they promised me. Guilting me into voting for them doesn't work anymore. I have actual bills to pay. I have a child to raise. The Dems are content that they will promise me the moon and hand me a pebble, and they'll still get my vote. If the only way to actually get them to come through with the moon is to prove to them that my vote is contingent on it, and throw that pebble back, then so be it.

Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Nov 5, 2021

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017



morothar posted:

Virtually everything in the Infrastructure and BBB bills benefits young people, often most or exclusively. $4T+ in spending that would never have materialized without the Democrats being (barely) in power.

Truly, young people have no reason to vote Democrat ever again.

"We've already given you some tiny things! Be happy with tiny things! You want MORE now!?"

The Democratic party is the only political party in the world apparently that should get a pass from it's voters for not doing any of the things they want except the smallest possible scraps. Means Testing and Poll Aporoved: the Party!

You really convinced me: i am totally voting Blue No Matter Who Now! :thumbsup:


Hellblazer187 posted:

The people arguing against student loan relief in this thread did more to radicalize me than a thousand CSPAMers on a thousand typewriters could in a thousand years.

loving :same:


Sharkie posted:

If someone tells me they want to hang out, then they keep giving me endless excuses about why they can't, eventually I decide they don't really want me around. Then once every four years when they hit me up for money, I can tell them to gently caress off. Politics works the same way.

But if we don't do it maybe good things that won't happen anyway won't happen!

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

I think we should definitely govern based on what Republicans will say about our plans, because they've proven they're good faith actors and will honestly analyze our proposals and lay out their differences in a rational manner in the spirit of debate.
https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1443549488447205378

Mellow Seas posted:

First of all, I don't think anybody is saying it would be the "end of the party as we know it."

...did you not see the post I quoted that said relief would doom the party for a generation?

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

Gumball Gumption posted:

Would loan forgiveness be more or less unpopular than giving 10 billion extra to the pentagon for they're budget? A thing that both parties did without much incident.

The Military Industrial Complex is basically the closest thing we have to a bipartisanly-supported federal jobs program. If it built roads and refurnished school buildings instead of churning out fighter jets that require air-conditioned hangars but usually need to fight in hot deserts, we'd be living in an actual Great Society by now.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Hellblazer187 posted:

...did you not see the post I quoted that said relief would doom the party for a generation?

Yeah okay, that take is way over the top. (I don't want to get into the "nobody is saying [thing somebody has said]!" game that gets played around here so thanks for calling it out.) I guess I kind of filtered it out because I agreed with a lot of the post (also something that people do here too much, and I don't want to do.)

Really the idea that anything would "doom [a given party] for a generation" is pretty silly when we've already seen both parties come back from being declared "dead! Permanent minority!" multiple times just in this century. Worst case, full forgiveness might cost them somewhere between 0-5% for a couple of cycles. (Probably closer to zero than 5, really.)

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster
I think the House moderates might just be bad at politics.

Now, they are sabotaging the bipartisan infrastructure bill until the CBO scores the House version of the BBB bill (which will definitely not be the final version) out of some weird belief that a CBO score showing it lowering the deficit will help them politically.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1456638613962338309

How did one person asking about the geographic location of student loan havers end up in a multiple page 7 on 1 argument with a different third-party about how engineers shouldn't get debt forgiveness?

Lib and let die posted:

Give college grads more purchasing power and maybe we can reduce the iron stranglehold that companies like BlackRock have on the real estate market even.

Blackrock owns 0.04% of the total U.S. housing stock and 0.53% of all single-family rental homes.

If you count all institutional and corporate owners, then those companies own 1.9% of the single-family rental market and 0.21% of the total housing stock.

They don't have an iron stranglehold on the housing market.

https://twitter.com/JerusalemDemsas/status/1403337439708598275

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply