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FLIPADELPHIA posted:The GOP is a fascist Party at this point friend. People are flying flags of a person now. The platform of the GOP is now "we support President Trump". That's not an exaggeration. Anyone who votes for Trump is a loving Nazi. You don't have to be a prison guard at Dachau to be a Nazi. Gort posted:
Hey man that's cool and all - how many people are you winning over by continually pointing out something no one is in disagreement over? This whole tangent started over another poster who dismissed people as either Nazis, or too stupid/too enamored with right wing ideology to even be worth giving good things too. I'm saying you need to do a little bit more than just keep saying they're fascists, my dude, my guy, my friends, my posting pals Edit: KIDDO, CHAMP, CHIEF vvvvv it's this vvvvv Hellblazer187 posted:You're not wrong, but the problem is when you get a guy who is better at pretending he's not crazy (Youngkin) you can't just run on "he's a Nazi!" or you'll lose. Cow Bell fucked around with this message at 15:17 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 15:13
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Kraftwerk posted:I look at how radical politics and liberal politics works in America today and what I see is a lot of people who don’t know how to talk to or even connect with the people they’re trying to represent. We’re like a bunch of rabbits trying to teach the water buffalo how to coordinate a combat strategy against some lions. The democrats or at least socialist groups like the DSA need to get out of the academic ivory tower and start recruiting people from working class and rural backgrounds that actually connect with their local communities. It’s not good enough to just bring some 25 year old college Marxist into the fold and expect them to deliver magic political victories. People have been trying that kind of poo poo since the 1800s and they failed just as miserably back then. When the post election coverage started rolling in from VA where reporters kept quoting people saying "Why would we vote for a dem when they don't even bother to come out here and talk to us?" I came to the same conclusion. Even if it's just a local candidate that's going to fail no matter what you have to have someone out there trying to connect with people on the local level in rural areas of the state. I think that's part of why Northram won. There was absolutely an anti-Trump wave that rolled through but I think he won by a larger amount than any other Dem in recent memory. Terry won in the previous election by a slim margin and lost the last one by two points. Northram won by 9. I think he grew up in southwest VA and while he didn't sweep every county in the state you didn't have the same visceral backlash you had in this past election. It doesn't matter how many urban libs you court if someone like Youngkin can run up the score in small pockets of flyover country. Northram and his southern drawl might have been enough to keep people home because he wasn't offensive enough to their conservative sensibilities to drive turnout. Yeah parents were mad that they had to keep their kids home and yeah people were mad about COVID and CRT, but Terry just isn't charismatic in a way that appeals to (or at least doesn't offend) white rural conservatives. Maybe looking at things from a pure policy angle is wrong and maybe it's purely about what kind of charisma a candidate holds. I could be totally wrong it just seems pretty clear to me that doing things that directly benefit people isn't the magic bullet people keep assuming it is and I'm having trouble articulating what else could help stem the bleeding. Someone else in the thread mentioned Fetterman up in PA as a candidate that appeals to voters in that state and will likely do pretty well. If he does I don't think it's because he's brash like Trump. I think it's because he looks and sounds more like the people he represents. There was that one guy in West Virginia that people had a lot of hope for that I can't remember the name of. He obviously didn't win the house seat but maybe that doesn't matter because if you lose by 5-10 points vs losing by 20-30 points that adds up for statewide races. Clearly that's what won it for Youngkin.
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Nov 8, 2021 15:13
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:The GOP is a fascist Party at this point friend. People are flying flags of a person now. The platform of the GOP is now "we support President Trump". That's not an exaggeration. Anyone who votes for Trump is a loving Nazi. You don't have to be a prison guard at Dachau to be a Nazi. You're not wrong, but the problem is when you get a guy who is better at pretending he's not crazy (Youngkin) you can't just run on "he's a Nazi!" or you'll lose.
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Nov 8, 2021 15:13
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The problems with both of those analyses are: 1) For the "the problem is just that their messages aren't connecting to normal Americans" argument: People are defining "normal Americans" as "older white people without college degrees from rural and suburban areas" and I don't think that is a good way to define it. That group has outsized electoral impact, but that definition leaves out a lot of people from the "normal/average American" category. Especially, non-white and urban voters who make up a majority of Americans. The suburbs are also majority minority in the U.S., but when they say "average suburban voters" they are not talking about a 45-year old black woman. The Democrats have won the popular vote in every Presidential election except 1 for the last 20 years. So, the "average American" is a Democratic voter. The "problem" is that Democrats are getting blown out by this group that has oversized electoral impact. But, this demographic is not necessarily responsive to the same things that the median voter would be. 2) For the "people only respond to making their material conditions better" argument: Roughly 3/4 of Americans are in a better financial situation than they were two years ago. Despite agreeing that their personal financial situation is better, they also think that everyone else's is a lot worse and that the "the economy" overall is worse. 63% of voters in VA said the economy was "good or excellent," and T-Mac did not get 63% of the vote. You can also see this in smaller Demographics. - People who got expanded Medicaid under Democrats didn't shift significantly to Democrats. - Wealthy well-educated professionals got very large tax cuts under Trump and George W. Bush. They liked those tax cuts, but they were still one of the strongest demographics against Bush/Trump before and after the cuts. - Blue-collar Democratic steel workers benefitted very heavily from Trump's steel tariffs and approved of the policy, but it didn't change their votes. One of those strategies may still be the "best" one electorally, but there isn't really any evidence that either one is an obvious solution. For context, you also have the Republican candidate for Governor getting 51% of the vote when the Democratic President has 42-45% in 2021. In 2009, You had Obama with a 55% approval rating and the Republican candidate for Governor in VA winning by 17 points. So, there also isn't necessarily a 1:1 exchange based on incumbent approval rating either.
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Nov 8, 2021 15:19
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On Terra Firma posted:Maybe looking at things from a pure policy angle is wrong and maybe it's purely about what kind of charisma a candidate holds. At least when it comes to the presidency I've kind of always felt "a nerd can't beat a bully." The Democrats who have lost presidential elections in my lifetime have all been huge loving nerds. The Democrats who have won were cool on some level. The only real exception is Biden, who is not really cool but also not quite a nerd, and was running against a guy who caused 500,000 American deaths and still barely squeaked out a win. Gore, Kerry, and Hillary Clinton were huge loving nerds. Mondale and Dukakis were technically during my lifetime as well, and while I don't remember them they seem like nerds as well. I mean really this is really just kind of a flippant way to say what Kraftwork said: "The Democratic Party is poorly suited to attract votes from anyone except a subset of the liberal urban middle and upper classes." The exception is when you have a candidate with god-tier personal charisma. On Terra Firma posted:I could be totally wrong it just seems pretty clear to me that doing things that directly benefit people isn't the magic bullet people keep assuming it is and I'm having trouble articulating what else could help stem the bleeding. I think it needs to be dramatic. Roosevelt won 4 terms because he delivered dramatically (and of course there were... some things going on at that time).
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Nov 8, 2021 15:26
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Gort posted:pretending fascists aren't fascists is not a winning strategy my dude Neither is pretending that any voter who chooses to not for Democrats is a fascist or a fascist-enabler. Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:- Wealthy well-educated professionals got very large tax cuts under Trump and George W. Bush. They liked those tax cuts, but they were still one of the strongest demographics against Bush/Trump before and after the cuts. Why would wealthy, educated professionals worry about losing the very large tax cuts they got under Trump & Bush by voting for Democrats? Those taxes are never restored in full once Dems come back to power, and then Dems go even further by restoring tax breaks for the wealthy that the GOP took away, as they're presently doing with SALT. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 15:38 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 15:31
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The Democrats have won the popular vote in every Presidential election except 1 for the last 20 years. So, the "average American" is a Democratic voter. Pretty sure “didn’t vote” has been the actual winner of the popular vote since the 20th century began (I may be wrong about this since it’s been a while since I saw the numbers). That’s a complex group of people who may be withholding their vote for a number of reasons (suppression, apathy, disillusionment etc.). It is fair, however, to say that your extrapolating from a sub-sample of a sub-sample is not going to give you a good idea of an “average American” any more than the assumption that everyone who uses this term is referring to a white boomer. Five/Six million or so (I forget since the Maria-diaspora has really shaken the numbers) citizens in Puerto Rico can’t even vote at all, even within the confines of the blue/red/abstain ternary choice (ignoring third party for simplicity).
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Nov 8, 2021 15:35
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Willa Rogers posted:Neither is pretending that any voter who chooses to not for Democrats is a fascist or a fascist-enabler. In practice? How is that not the case?
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Nov 8, 2021 15:37
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morothar posted:In practice? How is that not the case? Let's take that convo to the now-closed voting thread.  eta: I will say that diluting the term to encompass anyone not voting Dem strikes me as rather... well, fascist in itself.
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Nov 8, 2021 15:41
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Sanguinia posted:The fact that so many parents in this country are so angry about having to deal with the fallout of decisions designed to SAVE THEIR CHILDRENS LIVES AND THE LIVES OF EVERYONE AROUND THEIR CHILDREN that they're willing to vote for Nazis just to give a middle finger to the people who SAVED THEIR CHILDREN'S LIVES is not normal, or comprehensible. Main Paineframe posted:
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Nov 8, 2021 15:44
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On Terra Firma posted:When the post election coverage started rolling in from VA where reporters kept quoting people saying "Why would we vote for a dem when they don't even bother to come out here and talk to us?" I came to the same conclusion. Even if it's just a local candidate that's going to fail no matter what you have to have someone out there trying to connect with people on the local level in rural areas of the state. I think that's part of why Northram won. There was absolutely an anti-Trump wave that rolled through but I think he won by a larger amount than any other Dem in recent memory. Terry won in the previous election by a slim margin and lost the last one by two points. Northram won by 9. I think he grew up in southwest VA and while he didn't sweep every county in the state you didn't have the same visceral backlash you had in this past election. It doesn't matter how many urban libs you court if someone like Youngkin can run up the score in small pockets of flyover country. Northram and his southern drawl might have been enough to keep people home because he wasn't offensive enough to their conservative sensibilities to drive turnout. 100% this. You're not gonna get votes for your party if you're running a rotating tap of forgettable pro-politicians who nobody in the region knows or trusts. The brain trust in the Democratic party comes from New England socially liberal, economically conservative think tanks and business leaders who have absolutely completely out of touch with the communities they run in. A student activist who got gassed in the occupy wall street protests will have better luck running in a working class New York district than they would running in Kentucky or Georgia (outside maybe the districts where the major college is). If the Democrats want to win they need to run people who were leaders in their local stevedore union, people who the local community trusts and understands. There are thousands of untapped political and revolutionary leaders in America who are completely unaware of their potential as a political force and are simply well-liked influential members of their local communities who can resonate across their state and truly speak to their state's people and problems. They're the sorts of people who occasionally hear "you should get into politics" and the answer is always "nah". If the national party was open to actually being representative of the regions they want to represent they'd be able to provide the institutional support to these people. But they're not interested. The Democratic party is a microcosm of business leaders, wealthy coastal liberals and suburban/middle class people who want to "do the right thing" but have never met, seen or even driven through the kinds of neighborhoods or places they want to represent. I would even go as far as saying if they met a "real" American who occupies 90% of the landmass these people never visit they would be a combination of offended, shocked or otherwise contemptuous of them. Think about the way Mark Zuckerberg appears when he launches a media op to try and come off as relatable, friendly or approachable... Everyone in this thread can agree he hits the uncanny valley in such an extreme way that he's become the subject of gifs and memes for the last decade. This is how the Democrats appear to all but their most traditional working class holdouts. A Democrat is the trust fund hipster who wears flannel, has expensive tattoos and drinks $8/pint craft beer and Pabst Blue Ribbon in "dive bars" built within the repurposed, gentrified, decaying corpse of America's industrial heartlands. They're not real, the people who they are turning into a profit oriented fashion trend see that and feel deeply uncomfortable with it. Frankly it's offensive. There's career union guys who've fallen into destitution and decay while their former workplaces and communities turn into high priced playgrounds for suburban college educated rich kids cosplaying as you like your life and culture is some kind of never ending ironic joke costume party. Is it any wonder the culture war the GOP has been raging has been so effective under contexts like this? I would be so loving angry that the party I thought represented me has turned over to catering to people like that while leaving me out in the cold. I'd vote for anyone who would do everything in their power to clown on people like this and spite them as hard as possible... That is just ONE of hundreds of little vignettes throughout places like PA, WI, MI that gave Trump his presidency in 2018. Arguing policy and trying to "think" your way into a social-democratic tradition can't happen if you aren't even including the people you're trying to represent or taking them seriously! EDIT: The Democrats were handed an opportunity in 2008 to make the necessary changes that would have nipped a guy like Trump in the bud. Obama was supposed to be the next FDR, not Biden. They had the supermajorities in congress to make the necessary changes that would have locked in much of the rust belt to the Democrats forever... But rather than take advantage of such a historic opportunity, the fed wrote a blank check to the richest people in America and basically shut out anyone else who they had a responsibility to help. The GOP as it exists today has expanded its tent to include a generation of what could have been reliable Democratic party voters. I bet a lot of people became independents, switched to the GOP or just gave up and stopped voting because of how badly the Obama admin hoodwinked them. This is never going to stop until we launch a mass mobilization of people who are truly representative of America and their local communities... It may be that the Democrats have numerical advantage in raw voters, but with the way the system works you need to appeal to specific regional concerns in purple states, red states and other places most of us have written off as "CHUD LAND". Frankly the entire thing is just further proof this country will never get it's poo poo together because for all our talk about how hostile and exclusionary America is, the people who call themselves liberals do a fine enough job of perpetuating shame and a particular intersectional cultural identity that only resonates with a tiny portion of the totality of America. Our side is just as bad when it comes to appealing to people who are different than we are as any other political faction we paint with a broad brush. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 15:46
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Majorian posted:I think Freakazoid_ is speaking to the likely electoral implications of this legislation, if it passes in any form. (correct me if I'm wrong on that, Freakazoid_) The average voter doesn't care that Trump didn't write the previous bill and threatened to veto it, nor do they care that the Dems tried really hard to make the BBB as expansive as possible. They care about whether or not they, themselves, got anything material out of it, and they'll vote accordingly. That's the jist of it. However, Trump not only proposed the stimulus checks, he only blocked the second stimulus because the check was too small. He had an active hand in doing a socialism despite being cheeto benito. And yes, for the first time in my life, I benefited from the government in a very real way. Stimulus checks and extended unemployment benefits improved my quality of life. The BBB has none of those. There might be something in there that technically helps, but it will be a small fraction of what the covid stimulus bills gave me.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:07
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Not sure which is the most surprising result: - Twitter has a younger userbase than TikTok. or - Facebook users are apparently nearly perfectly representative of overall American public opinion. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/new-nbc-poll-shows-deep-partisan-differences-among-social-media-n1283453 quote:In the poll, 69 percent of adults say they have an account on Facebook, 28 percent say they use Twitter, 27 percent use TikTok and 27 percent don’t have an account on any of these social media platforms. 
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Nov 8, 2021 16:12
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Is there a good legal breakdown of the Ahmad Arbery case anywhere from a legal standpoint? I know Citizens arrests were legal in Georgia at the time of the killing. And Georgia has stand your ground laws. I also know there's the issue with the juror's being 11 white, and 1 black person, while the community is closer to a 75/25 split. I'm curious if there's any decent legal breakdowns on how those two issues interact with each other and have a general idea of how the trial might end up based on the law.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:13
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At present we're in a situation where the judge is outright openly stating he believes he witnessed the jury composition was the result of discriminatory exclusion, but that state law does not give him the capacity to do anything about it, so he's seating the jury anyway. Like, it's out in the open here, and it should be front and center in the case of a terrible outcome.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:23
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VitalSigns posted:You know that "OPEN 'ER UP let the bodies hit the floor!" and "schools are closed but you still have to go to your service job, good luck finding someone to watch your kids, hey why are you mad are you some kinda lovely parent or something" weren't the only two options in the universe right Where were the options the worst? That is, either putting your kids in school with no protections or putting your kids in virtual with absolutely terrible systems in place and no support? Red or blue areas? Yea, America hosed up, no it wasn't a surprise, but it goes deeper than "democrat districts hosed the children." Not suggesting you're saying that, but the implication has been made a few times that the onus of loving up leans somehow to Democrats throughout the pandemic.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:28
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Kraftwerk posted:This is never going to stop until we launch a mass mobilization of people who are truly representative of America and their local communities... It may be that the Democrats have numerical advantage in raw voters, but with the way the system works you need to appeal to specific regional concerns in purple states, red states and other places most of us have written off as "CHUD LAND". Frankly the entire thing is just further proof this country will never get it's poo poo together because for all our talk about how hostile and exclusionary America is, the people who call themselves liberals do a fine enough job of perpetuating shame and a particular intersectional cultural identity that only resonates with a tiny portion of the totality of America. Our side is just as bad when it comes to appealing to people who are different than we are as any other political faction we paint with a broad brush. Yep I agree. The idea that policy alone will win races is just not compelling to me anymore. Not after everything that was accomplished in VA over the last few years. Northram signed into law a lot of really really good things and it just didn't matter. I don't think it's just having a candidate that energizes the base either. Youngkin didn't energize poo poo. Terry's approach of lumping Youngkin in with Trump didn't work the same way conservatives trying to tie Obama to communism didn't really work. When you look at the guy he didn't exude communist revolutionary ideals or whatever and most people saw through it. A sweater vest isn't a tiki torch and a policy platform tucked away on a website didn't make Tmac any more palatable to SWVA voters.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:29
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Kavros posted:At present we're in a situation where the judge is outright openly stating he believes he witnessed the jury composition was the result of discriminatory exclusion, but that state law does not give him the capacity to do anything about it, so he's seating the jury anyway. I get that, but I'm more interested in interaction between citizens arrest and stand your ground and whether the defense has an actual chance at winning provided the jury was fair and impartial. Like did the McMichaels have an actual legal right to citizens arrest and then shoot someone if they didn't like having a gun pointed at them. I'm not interested in if it is morally right or wrong but rather a possible legal breakdown on how the laws interact with each other and whether what they did was legal or not.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:36
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FLIPADELPHIA posted:The GOP is a fascist Party at this point friend. People are flying flags of a person now. The platform of the GOP is now "we support President Trump". That's not an exaggeration. Anyone who votes for Trump is a loving Nazi. You don't have to be a prison guard at Dachau to be a Nazi. Everybody who votes for Trump is a Nazi is a horrible strategy, and also grossly offensive. Are people who vote for Democrat's Nazis too? Because they both have internment camps at the border, both appeal broadly to racists, and the Democrats want the Republicans to be strong. By your logic, since the Democrat's run cover for the Republicans, they are also Nazis.
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Nov 8, 2021 16:53
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Willa Rogers posted:Neither is pretending that any voter who chooses to not for Democrats is a fascist or a fascist-enabler. morothar posted:In practice? How is that not the case? Willa Rogers posted:I will say that diluting the term to encompass anyone not voting Dem strikes me as rather... well, fascist in itself. Willia would you be willing to say that those who vote Republican are fascist or fascist-enabling? I get that you're reading it as "liberals are calling leftists fascists" but I don't think that's what they were saying. Peter Daou Zen posted:Everybody who votes for Trump is a Nazi is a horrible strategy, and also grossly offensive. It might be a horrible strategy, but it isn't wrong. Sorry if that offends you.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:10
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Everybody who votes for a Republican is a Nazi, and everyone who votes for a Democrat is a sexual predator. Now that we've cleared that up, why don't we move on?
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Nov 8, 2021 17:20
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BRAKE FOR MOOSE posted:Everybody who votes for a Republican is a Nazi, and everyone who votes for a Democrat is a sexual predator. Now that we've cleared that up, why don't we move on? Yes, please do.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:27
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DeadlyMuffin posted:It might be a horrible strategy, but it isn't wrong. Sorry if that offends you. As far as I can see no one is advocating dems running on a platform of "just call them nazis" either, people are just saying they are nazis in a conversation here.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:29
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:2) For the "people only respond to making their material conditions better" argument: Well yeah, that's kind of the name of the game - economic confidence is deep underwater nationally. It doesn't matter how much "Number Go Up" for the Dow; if people are afraid that it's all going to bottom out for them sooner rather than later, they're not going to reward the government in power: quote:Before the eruption of COVID-19 in the U.S., confidence was high, registering +41 in February 2020, the best reading since 2000. By mid-March, as the U.S. began to deal with the spread of COVID-19, economic confidence had fallen to +22. Confidence bottomed out at -33 in the latter half of April amid widespread business and school closures in the U.S. You also mention that VA voters who benefited from Medicaid expansions did not shift significantly to the Dems, but there's a fairly simple explanation for that: McAuliffe did not run on that. Nor did he run on any of the genuinely good things that the Democrats have accomplished in VA over the past decade. He instead largely ran on evoking fears of Trump and January 6, apparently in an attempt to replicate Gavin Newsom's victory here in CA. Suffice it to say, the strategy he chose did not work. e: \/\/\/ Kraftwerk posted:Yet progressive “excessively left” policy was immediately blamed for the loss. Yeah, that's unfortunately a function of how much "left-wing policies" have become strongly associated with culture war/social justice issues (which are essential and the left can't afford to back down on one iota, let there be no mistake), largely to the exclusion of economic justice and class struggle. To a lot of voters, "left-wing policies" don't mean things like Medicare expansion; they mean gender-neutral bathrooms and CRT in grammar schools. Plus, of course, the mainstream media and Democratic establishment have every incentive to blame the Virginia debacle on the left, because, well, you know. Majorian fucked around with this message at 17:47 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 17:33
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Majorian posted:Well yeah, that's kind of the name of the game - economic confidence is deep underwater nationally. It doesn't matter how much "Number Go Up" for the Dow; if people are afraid that it's all going to bottom out for them sooner rather than later, they're not going to reward the government in power: Yet progressive “excessively left” policy was immediately blamed for the loss.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:37
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Majorian posted:Well yeah, that's kind of the name of the game - economic confidence is deep underwater nationally. It doesn't matter how much "Number Go Up" for the Dow; if people are afraid that it's all going to bottom out for them sooner rather than later, they're not going to reward the government in power: People remember 2008, and the tech bubble, and... basically that if the big important people in fancy suits are going on about how the economy is great, then it's time to loving duck for cover because it's all going to explode and the people who aren't big and important are going to shoulder the burden as they have every single time
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Nov 8, 2021 17:46
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Majorian posted:Well yeah, that's kind of the name of the game - economic confidence is deep underwater nationally. It doesn't matter how much "Number Go Up" for the Dow; if people are afraid that it's all going to bottom out for them sooner rather than later, they're not going to reward the government in power: What is the lag time between various economic indicators of growth or decline and various economic indicators of confidence? The consumer confidence index is about to make a run up to all time highs. quote:Present Situation The literature seems to suggest that media tone and attitudes of the public often doesn't correlate to current economic circumstances. Usually the number of non-economic issues at the time dictates the media tone on the economy with more non-economic issues causing a more negative tone. However, consecutive economic news tends to refocus media tone and general public attitudes. The evidence seems to show that 6 months from now, rising GDP, increasing jobs prospects, and other factors will eventually catch up with the public.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:49
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Darkrenown posted:As far as I can see no one is advocating dems running on a platform of "just call them nazis" either, people are just saying they are nazis in a conversation here. Look, dude. Dems keep losing because of the mean words posted by quasi-anonymous losers on a forum that's been on life support since Obama's presidency. Sorry if facts offends you, but we won't see another Dem president until we reign in the PR disaster that is the rhetoric of a subforum on a comedy forum. For real though, Facism is more than simply doing evil poo poo. Yes, dems aid and abet evil poo poo. But the actual rhetoric of the GOP has been demonstrably fascistic at least since the Tea Party and its thin libertarian façade. Decon fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 17:51
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Not sure which is the most surprising result: Well, that "prefers control of congress number," is slightly reassuring. Nice to know some people don't have complete goldfish brain even if they don't think the President is going a great job.
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Nov 8, 2021 17:55
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I wonder how much of the Twitter swing is solely due to him getting banned
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Nov 8, 2021 17:59
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Also suggests that Republicans who don't like Trump are very overrepresented on social media.
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Nov 8, 2021 18:02
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Shammypants posted:What is the lag time between various economic indicators of growth or decline and various economic indicators of confidence? The consumer confidence index is about to make a run up to all time highs. That might well be the case. My point is, perceptions of how the economy is serving the needs of most Americans clearly are significant factors in how Virginia played out, as well as Biden and the Dems' dismal approval ratings.
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Nov 8, 2021 18:05
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Shammypants posted:Where were the options the worst? That is, either putting your kids in school with no protections or putting your kids in virtual with absolutely terrible systems in place and no support? Red or blue areas? Yea, America hosed up, no it wasn't a surprise, but it goes deeper than "democrat districts hosed the children." Not suggesting you're saying that, but the implication has been made a few times that the onus of loving up leans somehow to Democrats throughout the pandemic. This leads into another problem where Democrats just assume everyone is a hyperrational debate lord. Democrat policies are strictly better than Republican therefore everyone should support them. But real people aren't rational especially when they're under stress. Here you had Democrats saying "ok schools are closed, but you still have to work, and get someone to watch your kids and get them to all share the family computer for class somehow and you have to teach them to make up for all the problems" and they're unable to do it, they're stressed and ragged. And here comes a Republican saying "hey you don't have to do this, it's fine, schools are safe, trust us, we're putting the power in your hands, you decide, it'll be so much easier for you, it's fine", a lot of people are going to prefer the comforting lie to "oh practically homeschooling your kids while working full time is too hard for you, what are you a lovely parent or some kind of Nazi? Boooooootstraps!!!" It's only human nature. Democrats probably could have beaten the GOP on schools if they'd actually offered a workable alternative, cuz no parent wants their kid to get cottage cheese lung and die. But welp we don't want to spend the money and raise taxes (fiscal conservatism!) and we sure don't want to disturb the system of forcing everyone to labor 40+ hours per week at bullshit jobs to justify their existence because that would threaten the underpinnings of global capitalism so oh well. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 18:15 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 18:10
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Dems bad (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 8, 2021 18:14
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Kraftwerk posted:A Democrat is the trust fund hipster who wears flannel, has expensive tattoos and drinks $8/pint craft beer and Pabst Blue Ribbon in "dive bars" built within the repurposed, gentrified, decaying corpse of America's industrial heartlands. They're not real, the people who they are turning into a profit oriented fashion trend see that and feel deeply uncomfortable with it. Frankly it's offensive. There's career union guys who've fallen into destitution and decay while their former workplaces and communities turn into high priced playgrounds for suburban college educated rich kids cosplaying as you like your life and culture is some kind of never ending ironic joke costume party. Is it any wonder the culture war the GOP has been raging has been so effective under contexts like this? I would be so loving angry that the party I thought represented me has turned over to catering to people like that while leaving me out in the cold. I'd vote for anyone who would do everything in their power to clown on people like this and spite them as hard as possible...
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Nov 8, 2021 18:14
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Majorian posted:That might well be the case. My point is, perceptions of how the economy is serving the needs of most Americans clearly are significant factors in how Virginia played out, as well as Biden and the Dems' dismal approval ratings. Yea I agree. But there are some wild outliers here, with polls finding 48% of people approving of a bill (a majority) and only 24% saying it will help them. Some polls are showing majorities wanting democrats in control of congress and others are in the low 40s. Something is going on here. Looking forward, with a passage of two bills which, by their very nature, will boost GDP figures, we're looking at multiple quarters of positive growth, multiple quarters of job growth, and multiple quarters of trade expansion at the very least. So yea, Virginia's timing was quite bad but the election was also only decided by 1.5%. Going forward, is that kind of turnaround going to cut it for Republicans, especially with a full year of no-mask school on the books by then? VVVV We're not talking about the stock market and the unemployment alone. Major surveys show consumers are more confident than nearly ever that their wages will increase, that they have job security, that they will have increased job prospects. In Michigan's survey, inflation was the number one factor preventing sentiment to rise to decade highs. Again, inflation is another x-factor that could very well decrease through next election. Shammypants fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 18:15
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The stock market going up and and unemployment (however the numbers are massaged) going down are not necessarily indicators of success. Plenty of people do not have money in the stock market or, even of those that do, have it through their 401k, which is often not a significant amount. Businesses parking money in the stock market rather than reinvesting it in their own businesses, paying workers more, increasing benefits and etc is one of the reasons we have the logistics issues we're having now. They know they'll be fine if something goes horribly wrong because they'll get bailed out. Unemployment going down might be a factor of desperation and not that real wages are increasing enough to handle both inflation and price spikes. Messaging on BBB has been terrible, also.
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Nov 8, 2021 18:18
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HonorableTB posted:Dems bad  (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Nov 8, 2021 18:18
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Majorian posted:
From 2016 to 2020 the DNC and the establishment's attack on the left was they weren't woke enough. Bernie hates women, he is a racist, BernieBros are all cis hhhhwhite heterosexual frat dudes who are obsessed with economic issues and don't care about racism and social justice ("will breaking up the banks solve racism?"), they're basically Nazis or at least Strasserites etc etc etc Now all of a sudden the left are too woke, they're all virtue signaling SJWs whose focus on racial justice and CRT and defund the police and letting MEN pee in GIRL'S BATHROOMS next to little Kaylee are making us lose elections, and we gotta get more racist and transphobic and focus on economic issues that Americans care about like deficit reduction and tax breaks for McMansions
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Nov 8, 2021 18:21
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Tarezax posted:Also suggests that Republicans who don't like Trump are very overrepresented on social media. Probably a strong age and location correlation--seniors and rural people don't use social media to the extent other age and geographic groups do. Seniors and rural people also tend to vote Republican more than other age groups, and are also probably Trumpier than most. Sir John Falstaff fucked around with this message at 18:50 on Nov 8, 2021 |
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Nov 8, 2021 18:22
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