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Uncle Boogeyman
Jul 22, 2007

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The average American male who lives to be 75 ends up living to 87.

I'd expect Trump and Biden to both do at least as well as the average American. The chances of both of them being dead by 2024 are very low.

The complicating factors for each are:

Trump: The many things already noted.

Biden: Had skin cancer twice 20 years ago and 30 years ago, family history of cancer.

Biden also had two life threatening brain aneurysms like 30 years ago but I don’t know how that affects life expectancy

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Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

The average American male who lives to be 75 ends up living to 87.

I'd expect Trump and Biden to both do at least as well as the average American. The chances of both of them being dead by 2024 are very low.

The complicating factors for each are:

Trump: The many things already noted.

Biden: Had skin cancer twice 20 years ago and 30 years ago, family history of cancer.

You better believe every gross mole and skintag on Bidens mummified body is being scrutinized on a weekly basis

LeeMajors
Jan 20, 2005

I've gotta stop fantasizing about Lee Majors...
Ah, one more!


If only we could nominate someone who wasn't cannonballing mid-air into a loving casket....


...nah, we need experience in our elected leaders, goddammit.

Uncle Boogeyman
Jul 22, 2007

LeeMajors posted:

If only we could nominate someone who wasn't cannonballing mid-air into a loving casket....


...nah, we need experience in our elected leaders, goddammit.

The funniest possible outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy and then him and Biden both dropping dead in like, March 2024.

hooman
Oct 11, 2007

This guy seems legit.
Fun Shoe

LeeMajors posted:

If only we could nominate someone who wasn't cannonballing mid-air into a loving casket....


...nah, we need experience in our elected leaders, goddammit.

We need leaders who are going to publicly poo poo their pants.

The Bananana
May 21, 2008

This is a metaphor, a Christian allegory. The fact that I have to explain to you that Jesus is the Warthog, and the Banana is drepanocytosis is just embarrassing for you.



hooman posted:

We need leaders who are going to publicly poo poo their pants.

Literally, or metaphorically?

Aw gently caress it, let's get one who can do both!

Eric Cantonese
Dec 21, 2004

You should hear my accent.

LeeMajors posted:

If only we could nominate someone who wasn't cannonballing mid-air into a loving casket....


...nah, we need experience in our elected leaders, goddammit.

That doesn't really explain Trump, though. Most candidates who have to lean into "experience" tend to be easy pickings in times like these. Ask Hillary C. or Terry McAuliffe (when he wasn't just saying "Youngkin is Trump and Trump is BAD."

The elderly vote more and the elderly tend to have the resources necessary to take the time to run for high office. The elderly have more of the connections to get the financial fuel to keep their campaigns running too.

I'm not full of good answers on how to undo all that, but I'm just saying that most voters could give a toss about "experience," unless they've already made a decision to vote for a certain candidate in the first place. It's like you're learning the slogan, not actually getting on board the ideological train.

hooman posted:

We need leaders who are going to publicly poo poo their pants.

Agreed. I don't want a leader who thinks he or she is better than I am.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Uncle Boogeyman posted:

The funniest possible outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy and then him and Biden both dropping dead in like, March October 2024.
If you're gonna dream, dream big.

But yeah these guys aren't going anywhere. Reminder that the age of death of post-Nixon presidents are -
Ford - 93
Carter - 97+
Reagan - 93 (you can throw an asterisk on this one)
HW - 94

If you have the best conceivable medical care in the world and have managed to make it to your 70s with no major health problems then you're not getting off the ride any time soon.

e: As a bonus let's throw in losers Walter Mondale (93), Michael Dukakis (alive at 88), and Bob Dole (alive at 98).

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 15:40 on Nov 10, 2021

Abner Assington
Mar 13, 2005

For I am a sinner in the hands of an angry god. Bloody Mary, full of vodka, blessed are you among cocktails. Pray for me now, at the hour of my death, which I hope is soon.

Amen.

hooman posted:

We need leaders who are going to publicly poo poo their pants.
All candidates must line up in front of the British royal family and fart. Whoever has the most preferable smell wins the presidency—fair and square.

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Calling this now- Manchin is going to use the inflation thing as a reason to spike the BBB

https://twitter.com/sen_joemanchin/status/1458443966135902221?s=21

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



If they're worried about inflation they should use one of their tools that destroys money in existence starting at the biggest reservoirs, imho

-Blackadder-
Jan 2, 2007

Game....Blouses.
Is the current inflation issue still just coming from the supply chain log jam?

Biden got some poo poo luck that the Dem takeover and increase in spending happened to coincide with the pandemic supply chain problems boosting inflation. I'm sure the GOP will include the nuance in all their public discussions of the issue.

lil poopendorfer
Nov 13, 2014

by the sex ghost
didnt see this posted yet, but it's unsurprisin

https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1458120817078947853

really, the most surprising part is why the progressive Dems let themselves get duped like this.

Harold Fjord
Jan 3, 2004
Lots of members of that caucus aren't actually progressive.

In before "yes they are, who are you to gatekeep"

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Uncle Boogeyman posted:

The funniest possible outcome is Trump announcing his candidacy and then him and Biden both dropping dead in like, March 2024.

Nah that still gives time for people to get behind an alternative, you need to think bigger - they both die in Oct 2024 and Nader announces a write-in campaign

RBA Starblade
Apr 28, 2008

Going Home.

Games Idiot Court Jester

Failed Imagineer posted:

Nah that still gives time for people to get behind an alternative, you need to think bigger - they both die in Oct 2024 and Nader announces a write-in campaign

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m6PxRwgjzZw

Cranappleberry
Jan 27, 2009

-Blackadder- posted:

Is the current inflation issue still just coming from the supply chain log jam?

Biden got some poo poo luck that the Dem takeover and increase in spending happened to coincide with the pandemic supply chain problems boosting inflation. I'm sure the GOP will include the nuance in all their public discussions of the issue.

I know the term inflation is wrapped up with all price increases but there is inflation from an increase in the supply of money, cost-of-living increase and then from stuff like logistics issues and price gouging (like in the meatpacking industry).

Srice
Sep 11, 2011

Harold Fjord posted:

Lots of members of that caucus aren't actually progressive.

In before "yes they are, who are you to gatekeep"

Yea there is definitely some amount of progressiveness as aesthetics going on :hai:

Nucleic Acids
Apr 10, 2007

lil poopendorfer posted:

didnt see this posted yet, but it's unsurprisin

https://twitter.com/IlhanMN/status/1458120817078947853

really, the most surprising part is why the progressive Dems let themselves get duped like this.

That’s basically their job.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011


Ban this Ilhan Omar poster for doomerism

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Fatal Error in Newsom.exe

https://twitter.com/srodd_cpr/status/1458166701145538564?s=21

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Epic High Five posted:

I've got my doubts that the PA Dem party is capable of running against their own Lt Gov even if they wanted to deep down and truly

If they're like most other state Dem parties, they aren't capable of tying their shoes, much less throwing elections. When I'm more concerned with the party at the national level, as we've seen happen in MA, OH and other states.

But every once in a while they get lucky with state-level fuckery, too, as we saw with Alex Morse & with Ben Jealous.

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

lil poopendorfer posted:

really, the most surprising part is why the progressive Dems let themselves get duped like this.

I don't think they got "duped" as much as they decided that BBB was never going to pass the Senate in anything near its original form regardless of what they did with the BIF, so they decided to go along with the ploy to get Biden and the Dems a "win" in the news cycle after Virginia. Who knows if there is any actual political benefit to that, especially as relates to November '22 as opposed to November '21, but I think that was the reasoning. I doubt very many of them expected the 1.75T reconciliation to pass the House, let alone get Manchin and Sinema - arranging that vote was just a fig leaf to give them cover for their capitulation.

tl;dr they didn't get duped they just folded :v:

Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Nov 10, 2021

Hellblazer187
Oct 12, 2003

Mellow Seas posted:

I don't think they got "duped" as much as they decided that BBB was never going to pass the Senate in anything near its original form regardless of what they did with the BIF, so they decided to go along with the ploy to get Biden and the Dems a "win" in the news cycle after Virginia. Who knows if there is any actual political benefit to that, especially as relates to November '22 as opposed to November '21, but I think that was the reasoning. I doubt very many of them expected the 1.75T reconciliation to pass the House, let alone get Manchin and Sinema - arranging that vote was just a fig leaf to give them cover for their capitulation.

tl;dr they didn't get duped they just folded :v:

I think that's right but I'd have more respect for them if they admitted that instead of like, publicly exchanging their vote for a pinky swear.

haveblue
Aug 15, 2005



Toilet Rascal
Yeah that's got to be a direct consequence of the Virginia election. The CPC believes they were just told by the voters that they'd rather have a compromise and half an agenda than strong progressive ideals and no agenda.

Kulkasha
Jan 15, 2010

But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Likchenpa.

If I had to picture a lizard wearing human flesh and a business suit, it would look like Newsom, so this tracks

Aztec Galactus
Sep 12, 2002

haveblue posted:

Yeah that's got to be a direct consequence of the Virginia election. The CPC believes they were just told by the voters that they'd rather have a compromise and half an agenda than strong progressive ideals and no agenda.

Everyone thinks the Virginia election was a referendum on national democrats and Biden, except virginia voters

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Mellow Seas posted:

I don't think they got "duped" as much as they decided that BBB was never going to pass the Senate in anything near its original form regardless of what they did with the BIF, so they decided to go along with the ploy to get Biden and the Dems a "win" in the news cycle after Virginia. Who knows if there is any actual political benefit to that, especially as relates to November '22 as opposed to November '21, but I think that was the reasoning. I doubt very many of them expected the 1.75T reconciliation to pass the House, let alone get Manchin and Sinema - arranging that vote was just a fig leaf to give them cover for their capitulation.

tl;dr they didn't get duped they just folded :v:
Yes this is correct. The pinky promise to pass BBB if they fold was really just an offer from Biden and Pelosi for a graceful way for the CPC to back out of their position in a face-saving manner and they took it.

The CPC gets to claim it as a win because "we forced Biden to agree to all our demands", Biden gets to kill the bill while getting his infrastructure passed because the agreement is an unenforceable pinky promise, and when he does so everyone will have moved on and at most the CPC can go "oh well not our fault he promised something he couldn't deliver"

Uncle Boogeyman
Jul 22, 2007

Failed Imagineer posted:

Nah that still gives time for people to get behind an alternative, you need to think bigger - they both die in Oct 2024 and Nader announces a write-in campaign

I said funniest outcome, not best outcome

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

FizFashizzle posted:

Trump will die the same way all the obscenely wealthy, medicated poo poo head boomers die: out of sight with pneumonia when their child turns down the oxygen when no one is looking.

:ssh: Trump's not a boomer. Neither is Biden, Pelosi or Clyburn.

I reckon that xers, millennials & zoomers who are obscenely wealthy poo poo-heads in their old age will die the same way you describe; Kissinger now stands in defiance of the grim reaper as a "greatest," lol.

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Biden: Had skin cancer twice 20 years ago and 30 years ago, family history of cancer.

Well, there were also those two aneurysms that we know he had at a fairly young age.

Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 16:50 on Nov 10, 2021

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

VitalSigns posted:

The CPC gets to claim it as a win because "we forced Biden to agree to all our demands", Biden gets to kill the bill while getting his infrastructure passed because the agreement is an unenforceable pinky promise, and when he does so everyone will have moved on and at most the CPC can go "oh well not our fault he promised something he couldn't deliver"
Uhhh... do you think Biden didn't want BBB to pass?

Willa Rogers posted:

:ssh: Trump's not a boomer. Neither is Biden, Pelosi or Clyburn.
Trump was born in 1946, he is absolutely a boomer. It's also reasonable to say that all of those people are "approximately the same age" which is probably more significant than arbitrary generational cutoffs (although the starting point of the boomer generation is much more clear-cut than others).

Nucleic Acids
Apr 10, 2007

Mellow Seas posted:

Uhhh... do you think Biden didn't want BBB to pass?

He might want it passed, but what he wants is irrelevant at this point.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Mellow Seas posted:

Uhhh... do you think Biden didn't want BBB to pass?


I think at best he is fine with it failing, I see no other explanation for him choosing to play parliamentary hardball against the CPC rather than against Manchin.

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Reading the inflation news and bidens response to it this morning and I instantly thought of this tweet.
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1457477318881030153?s=20

Mellow Seas
Oct 9, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

VitalSigns posted:

I think at best he is fine with it failing, I see no other explanation for him choosing to play parliamentary hardball against the CPC rather than against Manchin.

I think his calculation was more like the CPC's: This isn't happening, so let's get something moving and then try to save whatever scraps we can.

Biden knows that the policies in the BBB poll well and would be good for the economy and therefore his reelection chances. He absolutely wants it to pass. But he's the one who's having direct conversations with Manchin and Sinema - if it seemed obvious to us that they were just stalling to eventually kill the bill, it would be really obvious to Biden.

Willa Rogers
Mar 11, 2005

Two new polls out this morning, Morning Consult and You Gov.

I'm still wading thru the crosstabs, but two things jumped out at me in the MC polling: indy women supporting Biden in much greater nos. than Dem women, and Biden's strongest approval among those making +$100,000/year. That dedication to SALT restoration is paying off!

(Subsamples are fairly prone to anomalies like these.)

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Mellow Seas posted:

I think his calculation was more like the CPC's: This isn't happening, so let's get something moving and then try to save whatever scraps we can.

Biden knows that the policies in the BBB poll well and would be good for the economy and therefore his reelection chances. He absolutely wants it to pass. But he's the one who's having direct conversations with Manchin and Sinema - if it seemed obvious to us that they were just stalling to eventually kill the bill, it would be really obvious to Biden.
They have been stalling it though…the whole reason the BIF exists is because Manchin demanded it in June/July and since then there has been all of this back and forth over the two bills

Peter Daou Zen
Apr 6, 2021

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Lawman 0 posted:

Reading the inflation news and bidens response to it this morning and I instantly thought of this tweet.
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1457477318881030153?s=20

These people think Mayor Pete is somebody to aspire to. A dead eyed, career climbing psychopath who has no original thoughts or feelings of his own and just mimics president Obama. Is there anybody in the Democratic Party that has even a shred of personality?

selec
Sep 6, 2003

Peter Daou Zen posted:

These people think Mayor Pete is somebody to aspire to. A dead eyed, career climbing psychopath who has no original thoughts or feelings of his own and just mimics president Obama. Is there anybody in the Democratic Party that has even a shred of personality?

Yes, but he yells and reminded some of the commentariat of their abusive fathers, and also I guess told a woman she’d never be president, which led to her coming in third in her own state primary. Nobody who has that much power to move reality should ever be president.

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DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
https://www.newsweek.com/stacey-abrams-pac-wipes-out-212-million-medical-debt-108000-people-5-states-1643189


Whatever this is, Democrats should do it more. It seems to be legal to spend political contributions however you want, wherever they come from, so can people netting tens of millions in ad money maybe put a few million aside and do something about bad things instead of another ad telling people how bad things are.

Also, you can cancel 200 mil worth of debt with 1.4 million? That's basically loving free, and there are lot of (D)s on the following list so don't tell me it is about the money:
https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/fundraising-totals

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