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Which horse film is your favorite?
This poll is closed.
Black Beauty 2 1.06%
A Talking Pony!?! 4 2.13%
Mr. Hands 2x Apple Flavor 117 62.23%
War Horse 11 5.85%
Mr. Hands 54 28.72%
Total: 188 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
Are you trying to convince me to... get a vaccine?

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Puppy Galaxy
Aug 1, 2004

Wang Commander posted:

Because I, like every other American, know a ton of young healthy people with long covid who are not the people they were, you can ask me to believe the numbers over my lying eyes but man

everyone I know who got covid (young and healthy and not so much of either) made a full recovery with the exception of one person who describes herself as having 80% of her sense of taste and smell back several months later. not saying long covid isn't a thing but I don't think it's a situation where we all know a "ton" of people, it seems fairly rare in fact

Puppy Galaxy fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Nov 25, 2021

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

I know 0 people with self-described or diagnosed long covid and I know many who've gotten covid, young and old

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Long COVID also is just any symptoms and effects after IIRC 28 days and can encompass everything from "I've got symptoms at five weeks" that resolve shortly after to "It's six months later and I still can't smell".

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
I know two people under 50 who went from active jobs to totally disabled a year out, haven't got out of bed since "recovering"

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Fallom posted:

I know 0 people with self-described or diagnosed long covid and I know many who've gotten covid, young and old

Yeah same. Some people lost their sense of smell and taste for a few months but it came back.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Wang Commander posted:

Are you trying to convince me to... get a vaccine?

You objected that the chart showing hospitalization or death didn't encompass everything since it left out "long covid", but you can't get long covid without getting covid first (well.... ignoring that mean study that guy just posted). In addition to whatever presumed reduction in lasting symptoms that the reduction of symptoms vaccine gives might provide.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

You objected that the chart showing hospitalization or death didn't encompass everything since it left out "long covid", but you can't get long covid without getting covid first (well.... ignoring that mean study that guy just posted). In addition to whatever presumed reduction in lasting symptoms that the reduction of symptoms vaccine gives might provide.

Scare quoting long covid, the ableism doesn't stop around here!

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

How are u posted:

Yeah same. Some people lost their sense of smell and taste for a few months but it came back.
A few months seems pretty poo poo tbh

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Gynovore posted:

Saying a new variant has "32 new mutations!!!!" is meaningless by itself. That's like a commercial claiming a new brand of diet soda has "32 new chemicals!!"

1) if you actually read the identified mutations, they include particularly concerning ones

2) the # of mutations itself does matter to the extent they make it harder for antibodies to recognize/bind to the spike (at least, that's what the virologists are saying)

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Wang Commander posted:

Scare quoting long covid, the ableism doesn't stop around here!

However you define long covid surely it requires first contracting covid.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Petey posted:

1) if you actually read the identified mutations, they include particularly concerning ones

2) the # of mutations itself does matter to the extent they make it harder for antibodies to recognize/bind to the spike (at least, that's what the virologists are saying)

3) That the lynchpin of the RNA vaccine can mutate so much and still work is worrisome in its own right.

To put it bluntly, Chise's blitheness on this affair is a failure of personal and arguably professional ethics, IMHO, not least as undercaution with this variant and ones like it would both be the last straw for the american and other health care systems and stands to be very damaging to the vaccination effort.

Illuminti
Dec 3, 2005

Praise be to China's Covid-Zero Policy
Nvm

Illuminti fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Nov 25, 2021

How are u
May 19, 2005

by Azathoth

Charles 2 of Spain posted:

A few months seems pretty poo poo tbh

Totally. It's the part I'm looking forward to the least for when I catch covid myself. It sounds pretty disturbing, to be honest, losing your senses like that. Thankfully they seem to come back in most every case.

Gynovore
Jun 17, 2009

Forget your RoboCoX or your StickyCoX or your EvilCoX, MY CoX has Blinking Bewbs!

WHY IS THIS GAME DEAD?!
When a new mutation arises, only three things matter:

1) Can it spread at least as easily as Delta?

2) Does it evade the RNA vaccine, in full or in part?

3) Does it make your asscheeks fall off?


If a new variant is significantly less transmissible than Delta, then it can be safely ignored, because Delta will outcompete it. If it wholly or mostly evades the vaccine, then we have a big problem, but fortunately that's extremely unlikely, due to the nature of the spike protein. Any mutation which significantly alters the spike protein will almost certainly make the virus unable to infect a cell, making that mutation irrelevant.

It doesn't matter whether a new variant has one or 32 or a million mutations. All that matters is; how contagious it is, whether it evades the vaccine, and how deadly it is.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
If it evades immunity it doesn't have to outcompete Delta R0, just Delta in a given population (heavily vaccinated, just had Delta, etc)

Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

How are u posted:

Totally. It's the part I'm looking forward to the least for when I catch covid myself. It sounds pretty disturbing, to be honest, losing your senses like that. Thankfully they seem to come back in most every case.

Once when I was a teenager I got a flu (or possibly just a really nasty cold) that left me with a diminished sense of smell. It was still there, but it didn't work as well: I had trouble detecting faint smells, and odors that other people found overpowering were just kind of... there? (Strangely, my sense of taste seemed mostly unaffected.)

It took a couple of years to completely recover, and be capable of experiencing strong smells again. At least, that was my impression. Smell is such a subjective thing.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Gynovore posted:

significantly alters the spike protein will almost certainly make the virus unable to infect a cell, making that mutation irrelevant.


As shown here, that is not the case, as it is still infectious with significant mutations to the spike, and more to the point, it is similar to variants thought to be in Murinae hosts that have been evasive of immune response.

As I have said before: this is not necessarily the Big One, but it shows that the Big One is a realistic risk, as there is room for adaptation in the spike after all.

StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 04:12 on Nov 25, 2021

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!
If

We're working off hypotheticals here. Fortunately the cluster is very small and started in an area that has pretty good sequencing/monitoring, so we'll know over the next few weeks/months whether it's going to spread significantly.

imo the more important takeaways are that this seems to demonstrate you can have a pretty divergent spike protein that still functions which means we really ought to be doing more sequencing (in addition to NPIs, vaccination, etc) and also making sure that immunocompromised people get medications to help them resolve infections. Both to have better health outcomes for them since they're at higher risk of severe disease and to reduce the generation of these new highly mutated variants that seem to arise in immunocompromised patients with unusually long disease courses (the virus is reproducing much longer than in a typical disease course and accumulating mutations).

Of course you're getting into some difficult ground there, you don't want to single out PLWHA or other immune-compromised people for monitoring and treatment and risk further stigma.

Platystemon
Feb 13, 2012

BREADS

StratGoatCom posted:

As shown here, that is not the case, as it is still infectious with significant mutations to the spike, and more to the point, it is similar to variants thought to be in Murinae hosts that have been evasive of immune response.

As I have said before: this is not necessarily the Big One, but it shows that the Big One is a realistic risk, as there is room for adaptation in the spike after all.

I have long held that NL63 proves that.

It causes mild, “common cold” illness in humans, and it appears to have have done so for several centuries.

The structural similarity between its spike and that of SARS‐CoV‐2 is about thirty percent, yet it binds to the same receptor. For comparison, SARS‐CoV’s spike is more like ninety percent similar to SARS‐CoV‐2.

freebooter
Jul 7, 2009

Powered Descent posted:

Once when I was a teenager I got a flu (or possibly just a really nasty cold) that left me with a diminished sense of smell. It was still there, but it didn't work as well: I had trouble detecting faint smells, and odors that other people found overpowering were just kind of... there? (Strangely, my sense of taste seemed mostly unaffected.)

It took a couple of years to completely recover, and be capable of experiencing strong smells again. At least, that was my impression. Smell is such a subjective thing.

"Long COVID", while still unusual, appears to be more common than "long flu" - but you can absolutely get long-haul symptoms from all manner of infections.

https://www.vox.com/22298751/long-term-side-effects-covid-19-hauler-symptoms

Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

Isn't one of the big positives of mRNA technology that if a different spike protein should appear, you can just plug in the new genome and get a new vaccine that's specifically targeted to it?

I know it's not magic, and it'd take some time for testing and whatnot. But even in the worst case of a spike mutation that evades the existing vaccines (but does just as well at penetrating cells), it seems there's cause for hope. In under a year we could be, if not completely out of the woods, at least back to where we are now, immunity-wise.

Charles 2 of Spain
Nov 7, 2017

Wow shocking that buying up all the vaccines and leaving developing countries in the dark would run the risk of further mutations.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Powered Descent posted:

Isn't one of the big positives of mRNA technology that if a different spike protein should appear, you can just plug in the new genome and get a new vaccine that's specifically targeted to it?

I know it's not magic, and it'd take some time for testing and whatnot. But even in the worst case of a spike mutation that evades the existing vaccines (but does just as well at penetrating cells), it seems there's cause for hope. In under a year we could be, if not completely out of the woods, at least back to where we are now, immunity-wise.

If you jumped on it fast, and were potentially willing to use lockdowns to try and prevent it running out of control before you had a mrna sequence and supply.

Do you think either of the big anglophone nations are willing to do that again?

And even if this is a wet fart, it shows we need to be far more paranoid about variant genesis and cease squandering the effectiveness of pharmaceutical interventions by both hording them and overrelying on them.

StratGoatCom fucked around with this message at 04:30 on Nov 25, 2021

UCS Hellmaker
Mar 29, 2008
Toilet Rascal

Wang Commander posted:

I know two people under 50 who went from active jobs to totally disabled a year out, haven't got out of bed since "recovering"

That's long term lung damage and deconditioning not really "long" covid. The honest worst thing covid has done to people.is basically make their lungs into scar tissued rocks between the fluid buildup and pneumonia. It's just that it's not something we would usually see in as many patients as we do now.

I've seen this in the ICU particularly in the vented patients that make it to trach and peg. Shits horrible for how awful it just destroys lung tissue, the only real treatment is a lung transplant and I think everything else makes it so they can't get on the list.

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Powered Descent posted:

Isn't one of the big positives of mRNA technology that if a different spike protein should appear, you can just plug in the new genome and get a new vaccine that's specifically targeted to it?

I know it's not magic, and it'd take some time for testing and whatnot. But even in the worst case of a spike mutation that evades the existing vaccines (but does just as well at penetrating cells), it seems there's cause for hope. In under a year we could be, if not completely out of the woods, at least back to where we are now, immunity-wise.

Yes you can prototype mRNA vaccines very rapidly. imo it makes more sense to do a yearly or whatever mixed shot like is done with the flu. Include mRNA for the major variants that year. You don't want a new vaccine specifically targeted just for a new highly-mutated variant because it might lose effectiveness against other variants.

So you get a yearly shot against the top four flu strains and top four COVID variants in your region which protects you quite well against Delta, Ligma, Nu, and Sugma.

StratGoatCom posted:

And even if this is a wet fart, it shows we need to be far more paranoid about variant genesis and cease squandering the effectiveness of pharmaceutical interventions by both hording them and overrelying on them.

yeah agreed, basically.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Powered Descent posted:

Isn't one of the big positives of mRNA technology that if a different spike protein should appear, you can just plug in the new genome and get a new vaccine that's specifically targeted to it?

I know it's not magic, and it'd take some time for testing and whatnot. But even in the worst case of a spike mutation that evades the existing vaccines (but does just as well at penetrating cells), it seems there's cause for hope. In under a year we could be, if not completely out of the woods, at least back to where we are now, immunity-wise.

Pfizer and Moderna are doing a thing right now where they are creating vaccines for the meaningless beta variant where there is no actual plan to actually release the end product but it’s meant to serve as a speed run practice to work out regulatory steps for what steps a real variant vaccine would face. Since the actual vaccine could be designed in an hour.

Wang Commander
Dec 27, 2003

by sebmojo
It doesn't seem like there's much interesting in fast tracking variant boosters tbqh, kinda hosed up

Mr Luxury Yacht
Apr 16, 2012


Wang Commander posted:

It doesn't seem like there's much interesting in fast tracking variant boosters tbqh, kinda hosed up

I mean when a booster of the same vaccine gets you up to what 93%, effective protection against Delta based on the booster trial in Israel? Is it really necessary to disrupt manufacturing by switching everything over to a variant specific booster? Maybe in the future with a different variant but probably not right now.

Powered Descent
Jul 13, 2008

We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.

Fritz the Horse posted:

Yes you can prototype mRNA vaccines very rapidly. imo it makes more sense to do a yearly or whatever mixed shot like is done with the flu. Include mRNA for the major variants that year. You don't want a new vaccine specifically targeted just for a new highly-mutated variant because it might lose effectiveness against other variants.

So you get a yearly shot against the top four flu strains and top four COVID variants in your region which protects you quite well against Delta, Ligma, Nu, and Sugma.

I'd say this stands a good chance of coming true in the next few years.

And speaking of combining vaccines, I'm getting my covid booster (a Moderna chaser to my original Pfizer cocktail) and my annual flu shot on Friday. :toot:

Fritz the Horse
Dec 26, 2019

... of course!

Powered Descent posted:

I'd say this stands a good chance of coming true in the next few years.

Realistically I think that's where we're headed in the US and Europe, NZ/Aus, Japan along with varying levels of NPI usage.

In that case, vaccine equity/justice becomes a major issue (or should). Because the developed world can rapidly prototype and produce mRNA vaccines against the flu, covid, whatever else while poor nations and the global South are stuck largely without.

If I had Bezos money a high priority (other than climate change) would be building mRNA vaccine factories and training operators and scientists in every region of the planet.

Fritz the Horse fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Nov 25, 2021

Petey
Nov 26, 2005

For who knows what is good for a person in life, during the few and meaningless days they pass through like a shadow? Who can tell them what will happen under the sun after they are gone?

Gynovore posted:

When a new mutation arises, only three things matter:

1) Can it spread at least as easily as Delta?

2) Does it evade the RNA vaccine, in full or in part?

3) Does it make your asscheeks fall off?


If a new variant is significantly less transmissible than Delta, then it can be safely ignored, because Delta will outcompete it. If it wholly or mostly evades the vaccine, then we have a big problem, but fortunately that's extremely unlikely, due to the nature of the spike protein. Any mutation which significantly alters the spike protein will almost certainly make the virus unable to infect a cell, making that mutation irrelevant.

It doesn't matter whether a new variant has one or 32 or a million mutations. All that matters is; how contagious it is, whether it evades the vaccine, and how deadly it is.

Well, update from SA government this morning:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1463846542264131584?s=21

Already 75% of cases in last two weeks, crushing Delta. So it’s got all these mutations that seem likely to evade treatment + appears to be much more fit than Delta (or: can escape Delta neutralization among those who have prior Delta infection, even if Delta might spread more in a naive population).

So I think the only question left is whether the disease it causes is worse than Delta (comparing like to like, ie vaccinated to vaccinated, monoclonals to monoclonals, etc etc).

Lager
Mar 9, 2004

Give me the secret to the anti-puppet equation!

How are u posted:

Yeah same. Some people lost their sense of smell and taste for a few months but it came back.

Uh, you're saying that you know multiple people who reported a long COVID symptom, but then agreeing with the person who said they know 0 people who reported long COVID symptoms?

As someone who has had hyposmia all my life (I can only smell a handful of things like garlic, which I love, and teatree oil weirdly, which I loving loathe, but my sense of taste still exists) I can tell you that it is not something to handwave away. I am fortunate that I don't live alone, because otherwise I would've died the time there was a gas leak in the house and I literally couldn't tell until my wife came home and freaked out. I also have to basically make her smell everything I'm about to eat to make sure it hasn't gone bad. It would be cool if people would stop doing the whole "eh, a couple people have lost their sense of smell, nbd" thing.

StratGoatCom
Aug 6, 2019

Our security is guaranteed by being able to melt the eyeballs of any other forum's denizens at 15 minutes notice


Also note that Chise has memory holed her posts downplaying it.

That woman is a source of toxic positivity, treat her as such.

Tiny Timbs
Sep 6, 2008

Lager posted:

Uh, you're saying that you know multiple people who reported a long COVID symptom, but then agreeing with the person who said they know 0 people who reported long COVID symptoms?

As someone who has had hyposmia all my life (I can only smell a handful of things like garlic, which I love, and teatree oil weirdly, which I loving loathe, but my sense of taste still exists) I can tell you that it is not something to handwave away. I am fortunate that I don't live alone, because otherwise I would've died the time there was a gas leak in the house and I literally couldn't tell until my wife came home and freaked out. I also have to basically make her smell everything I'm about to eat to make sure it hasn't gone bad. It would be cool if people would stop doing the whole "eh, a couple people have lost their sense of smell, nbd" thing.

FYI I have long EBV and spent a year with hepatitis over it so I'm not downplaying the idea of postviral symptom, I am being honest that I don't share the experience of the person claiming that everyone knows tons of people with long covid.

wisconsingreg
Jan 13, 2019
Can someone inform me about long COVID? I assumed it was mostly from hypoxic organ damage or inflammation combined with things like PTSD or even other mental illness that manifest with stressors. That doesn't seem that absurd?

smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

Fallom posted:

FYI I have long EBV and spent a year with hepatitis over it so I'm not downplaying the idea of postviral symptom, I am being honest that I don't share the experience of the person claiming that everyone knows tons of people with long covid.

I know 5 people with long covid and I don't exactly have a ton of friends. It's surprising to see posts like this, I assumed long covid is everywhere. Which is all the more infuriating that the media/current government doesn't give a poo poo about it.

enki42
Jun 11, 2001
#ATMLIVESMATTER

Put this Nazi-lover on ignore immediately!

Vasukhani posted:

Can someone inform me about long COVID? I assumed it was mostly from hypoxic organ damage or inflammation combined with things like PTSD or even other mental illness that manifest with stressors. That doesn't seem that absurd?

I don't think it's nearly well understood enough to say "it's definitively this". Long COVID clinically is just having symptoms persist after a number of weeks (I'm not sure if there's an accepted consensus on how long afterwards).

In all likelihood what we call "long COVID" is probably a bunch of different things, from post intensive care syndrome, to organ damage, to perhaps some cases of things like PTSD. Definitely there isn't a single explanation, and definitely most long COVID isn't PTSD, anxiety or psychosomatic.

brugroffil
Nov 30, 2015


It covers a huge range of symptoms. Could be chronic fatigue, headaches, confusion, depression, and then the organ damage etc. Last I saw it's estimated to be something like 10-15% of cases.

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Solkanar512
Dec 28, 2006

by the sex ghost

StratGoatCom posted:

Also note that Chise has memory holed her posts downplaying it.

That woman is a source of toxic positivity, treat her as such.

You folks think any form of good news or hope for the future is “toxic positivity”, so maybe tone it down a bit.

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